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Daily Fancies
Daily Fancies
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Replies: 266
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I also backed Death, good bet. I prefer Art Approval to Empressive.
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Interesting that you bet 1.5 each way on an 8/1 shot but only 1 pt on a fav.
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Empressive traded at 15 IR, steaming LTO winners never lose.
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Back in profit +16.55 points today
+16.36 overall Hi Gaze, yeah it’s all to do with value really. I rarely go to heavy on a short one as the rewards are less for the amount you are staking. I don’t mind backing a fav if I like it, as I see it a bit like walking past a fiver on the floor, but stopping and picking it up if it was twenty. It’s still worth me picking them both up, but it’s not where I’d make any large amounts as I don’t like risking more for little gain. |
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Yeah Empressive looked in trouble, but all she does is gallop so the track was perfect for that.
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Yeah pretty much Tiger, it can be difficult as I mentioned before, at this time of year with prep runs for bigger targets. I mentioned before at this time a year, I’m happy breaking even in order to gain knowledge before these big races come along from March onwards.
I didn’t fancy App Approval today as he will get into the Pertemps final off that mark, but I’ll take a closer look at his chances once the final decs are out once I know who is riding and if it has any headgear changes. Cheers Hayden, and thanks for your interest. |
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Yeah when Art Approval drifted I knew he was no good.
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Well done today.
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Stop bulldusting,Gaze
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No bets on Monday
Sometimes it’s best to keep your powder dry when lots of rain is about, leaving unreliable going descriptions. Watching briefs on a few, especially Nietzsche at Catterick 2.40. Roughly 30 days until the festival and he has a cracking record with a gap of 30 days between races and travelled really well in the ultima last year before stamina gave out. Can’t see it in any of the handicaps race betting but wonder if they will try the Grand Annual for a massive drop in trip? |
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Mr Barnes,your points allocation,doesn’t make sense to me
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well done barnesey
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How do you mean tanglefoot?
The more points I tip something with, the more i see it as a value bet. Cheers Barstool/Foyles |
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Barnes,how do u estimate value,because according to what I see u have had 0.5 e/w and 1.5 e/w on the same value chance of winning,u know that ,but I’ll leave u to think about it
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It’s not all about prices though is it?
Some 8/1 shots that I like, have more positives that others that I also like at 8/1. Today was actually one of those days when I sighed when death duty won, asking myself why I didn’t have more on. It’s not an exact science but I won as much today as I lost earlier it the week on Nick Williams horse. So my staking today was much more careful than it would of been if my midweek nap had won. |
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I’m not putting up as a bet at this stage, but incase anyone is interested, bet365 just added Nietzsche to the Grand Annual at 33/1 NRNB to go with my boosted Bun Doran bet of 55/1 both in the Grand Annual. Only small change on these at this stage tbh.
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3.15 Catterick- Almazhar Garde,should put in a good effort,stable in form
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Well you got your money back if you played each way?
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Tuesday
1.15 Lingfield Sallyann 0.50 points ew 14/1 Good luck all |
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Non runner today so no change to my profit/loss
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Wednesday
2.05 Wetherby Up for Parol 5/2 hills 1 point win (Quite a few could be having prep runs in this) 3.05 Hereford Clemencia 10/1 bet365 0.75 points ew 3.15 Wetherby Timeless Beauty 10/1 Hills 1 point ew 0.10 point double bet365 130/1 on the 3.05 and 3.15 races I may put up two more but want the prices to drift first. Good luck Does anyone have anything of interest? |
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That was an ew double, not win
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Thursday
All prices taken Tuesday evening 1.45 Sandown Torpillo 0.50 points ew 10/1 hills 2.20 Sandown Swincombe Fleat 1 point ew 22/1 hills 4.05 Sandown Musical Slave 0.75points ew 4/1 hills (Taking same route as last year, may just be happy to place before Cheltenham and Punchestown off a much lower mark than 12 months ago). 4.40 Sandown Grangeclere Glory 0.50 points 15/2 hills Others to be added from other tracks once priced up, good luck. |
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Up For Parol,generally 15/8
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Yeah and it’s still being backed
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Two more for Wednesday that I’ve got a better price on
1.00 Wetherby Viva Lavilla 1 point win @ 2.38 betfair exchange 1.55 Hereford Bolintlea 0.50 points ew 4/1 skybet Good luck |
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2.40 Wetherby - Rockadenn
3.40 Hereford- Belletrixa |
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You Beauty.
Wd |
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+8.3 points today
Total +24.66 Two minor irritations though, Clemencia getting so close to getting the place part of the double in and my ew single on him. Plus I had another horse that was 7/2 last night, but I was holding out for 5/1 which it got no where near, going off 2/1 fav. That’s racing! Well done Tanglefoot, feel free to start posting your P+L up, and anyone else is welcome to post any selections, the more the merrier. |
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Yes,wd, Eb1
Must say u appear to be using similar factors to myself in NH racing. I fancied Crixsus Escape in the 3.15 Thought Up For Parol would win  |
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Let’s keep it to ourselves then as wouldn’t want the value to go, would we now? ;)
Yeah Up For Parol was travelling well and certainly looked the winner but just emptied out. I’d imagine Ayr or Aintree will be that horses next targets as it seems best on flatter tracks. Cheers Barstool, care to put a selection up? Maybe Saturday? |
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Thursday
The Sandown selections have been up for a while, please scroll up eight comments to locate them. Massive move on Torpillo! Another shortened, maybe helped by non runner, one big drifter that I’ll back again and one smaller drift. All of the below were bet at 9pm, and all with skybet, but quite a few were the same price. 1.20 Clonmel Outback Flyer 14/1 0.5 points ew 2.45 Leicester Nelson River 14/1 0.75 points ew 3.40 Clonmel Donnrua Dream 11/2 0.75 points ew 4.15 Clonmel Teescomponentssayyes 10/1 1 point ew By the way, it’s worth reiterating that I’d highly recommend getting a skybet account if you don’t have one, they are normally dishing out more places than most, which appeals to me due to the prices I generally back. And if you bet a total of £25 between Monday and a Sunday (excluding odds on shots), they will give you a free £5 bet which is in your account by the Monday evening with no expiry date. I normally save mine up and then just put a load of them on something I fancy for the Cheltenham festival. These little things can give your P and L a nice little boost during the year. |
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Friday
A much quieter day awaits compared to Thursday 2.30 Kelso Hold the note 0.5 points ew hills 3.05 Kelso Silver Hallmark 10/3 0.75ew (Could be a prep race for the top four imo) I have one other at Fakenham to go up, but no prices yet Good luck |
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Eb1,I take it that u are betting in small stakes eg,Torpillo backed at 10/1 now 33/10,most books would restrict if u had to many bets like that.
I have been restricted by Skybet and most other books,granted I was arbing and other mischievous bets in the hundreds of £ Torpillo does have a good chance,gl |
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Yeah I’ve never been a big punter as I hate losing money.
The positive of that, is I’ve never been restricted as I suppose a small enough profitable account can be useful to firms, especially early enough before a race to give them a good steer. I was listening to Frank Hickey on a Paddy Power Podcast saying they only have about twenty mins to price a race up so can obviously miss a few things. And then three of them price up the bigger races and hopefully don’t miss anything between them. Yeah I’d imagine Arbing is harder nowadays? I had my dealings with quite a few Arbers back when telephone betting was still big. Nowadays technology is better, not having to ring up to place the bet, what with apps nowadays, but it could still be just as annoying if the price moves halfway between placing both bets? |
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3.20 Leceister- Cut The Mustard,think Nicholls holiday blue are over
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ul with Torpillo. Just giving too much weight to a young improver.
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I’ve watched cut the mustard quite closely and I have it in my head he wants a quiet jockey riding him. He trades short it running occasionally so have a keep lay up.
I’d prefer him with a quieter jockey though as he previously underperformed with bullying jockeys like Skelton and Frost. Hopefully I’m wrong though, good luck buddy. |
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I had my eye on Torpillo in the Grand Annual tbh, but his a 133 and it looks like you need minimum 136 to get in, so he would of had to win today.
With the lack of British horses about, I suppose there’s a small chance it’ll sneak in at a big price. |
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I need it
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