I'm the opposite, give me class 5 AW handicaps any day over festivals. The statistics are more reliable due to much bigger sample sizes.

Must admit i'm a lower grade player myself , only back double digits so the unpredictability and much of a muchness of the lower grade suits that strategy.

If looking through a handicap race i always start upside down , so start with the biggest price and work upwards so if i can't find a bet before i hit single digits i put a line through the race.

Festivals are view only for me but thoroughly enjoy watching them , unless there's a place over broke opportunity when a few of the superstars are heavily odds on with 8 runners or more.

Last festival bet i had was an e/way double at the Black Caviar / Frankel meeting on different days , great value e/way double and most bookies insisted on paying 1/4 odds as well for all races.

Thursday

A surprisingly busy day!

2.00 Huntingdon

Timeless Beauty 4/1 0.50 points ew Hills

2.20 Thurles

Brandy Harbour 4/1 boosted 0.50 points ew betfair sportsbook

2.37 Ffos Las

Yggdrasil 3/1 5 points win (nap) Hills

2.45 Doncaster

Mulcaheys Hill 8/1 0.50points ew bet365
0.50 points win bsp and 0.50 points place bsp (expecting this to drift)

3.45 Huntingdon

Dorking Boy @4.7 Betfair exchange 2 points win

3.50 Doncaster

Welsh Saint 6/1 £1ew skybet 4 places

4.07 Ffos Las

Heure De Gloire 16/1 skybet 4 places 0.50 points ew
0.50 points win bsp and 0.50 points place bsp (possible drift)

4.20 Doncaster

Progressive @4.33 Paddy power 2 points win

Good luck all

well  done barnsey.

Hi Haydon, and thanks.

It’s all about finding that niche that you can specialise in.
I once worked in the betting industry with someone who concentrated on the All weather at Southwell. It’s not for me, but if it’s profitable then happy days.

I was inspired maybe twenty years ago by Dave Nevison’s book about pricing up your own races and backing anything the bookies had 15% higher, then I became obsessed with distance and weight in big handicap chases and finding over priced horses that way, but now don’t find that I’m that price sensitive atall.
I have a rough idea of what a horse should be and as long as it’s in that ball park, I’ll back it.

If anything I’ve become more interested in following the money, normally if I see a particular trainer and owners horses back the night before, I’ll act upon it.

The good thing about Cheltenham is 99% are trying, where as other meetings, you don’t know how fit the horse is and if this is the target or not.
It’s just a case of watching the non triers in the build up and piecing together if the trainer is abit of a crook or not. The trends can also give you a good nudge as to the type of horse that does well, coral cup used to be novices but I think the ratio has recently improved for older horses.
I actually have a theory that the trends may not be as reliable this season in the handicaps though, but I’ve been wrong before.

You can get some cracking offers at the festival which can make it pretty hard to lose money, especially in the supreme.

Fair play just watching it for the spectacle, proper fan then.

good luck barnsey , same for  for me its all about finding the type of races you are comfortable with and most importantly identifying the right price i .e  value , then backing it at that price and ideally above the price you have for it.  i too am an ante post backer mainly because value can be found in the ante post markets and once i  have found an opportunity months or weeks in advance i drip feed a little but often the odd tenner or score most days and it soon builds up   ,its risky of course what with non runners but they are expected as i am  often backing months before a targeted race . i dont play or very rarely play handicaps they are too complicated for me.
lockdown  and no racing taught me a lot it gave me time to assess where i was going wrong and it gave me a bit of  discipline which was definitly   lacking before . i have the discipline pretty much in check and focus on the races that suit my way of playing  most of the time now  but getting the stakes right is what i need to sort out ,i can get a rush of blood to the head when i think i have found an opportunity / one at or above   the right price ,just as equally i can also be a bit of a wuss and not go in hard enough and regret it after the event just need to find that happy medium ,being a greedy fooker if i get a good priced winner its always fook i should have had more on ! by then its too late . pricing up ? i have no tissue when looking at a selected race, its in my head ,first thing i  look at is  the top of the market are they about right ? how much do they take out ? then i look at whats left and the prices ,from that i try to find my angle then its a bit of form studying  not to much though i dont do times as i find it over complicates things for me ,each to his own though if it works for some then so be it.we all have our own ways of playing and its a matter of perfecting them and getting that balance. good luck.

Just incase anyone reading this is not that experienced with betting, I’d recommend giving yourself a betting bank.

Come up with a figure you can afford to lose, say £100.

Then every bet you place, you need to put a number on it between 5 being your maximum bet to 1 being your smallest bet.
These numbers will then be the percentage of your balance that you allow yourself to bet on each selection.
If it’s an each way bet, halve the percentage again so that you stay under the 5%.

So for example if like my nap today you fancied something that your maximum would allow, you would bet £5 on it. Then if that lost, you would then be calculating from a bank of £95 for your next bet.

Personally being a Spurs fan, I find being tight with money quite easy, so I found this exercise quite useful. And then when I started winning, my bets naturally became larger because my percentage was coming from a larger betting pot.

It maybe easiest to keep this in one betting account, but I spread mind around accounts so that I can take advantage on the biggest prices and still follow the rules loosely enough to still give my betting that structure.

Hopefully that makes sense and it didn’t sound patronising.

Good luck

i suppose i am in the kelly camp then!

Another scale would be 5 points,an evens money selection
2 points at around 2/1
1 point 5/1 down

-13 points today, that’s racing!

+1.14 points now, swings and roundabouts etc

keep positive  still in profit and its early days .

I don’t like the sound of that staking plan of 5 points at evens, I know of someone who placed all bets on the exchange and kind of had that theory. He’d back his selection to win £500, no matter what the price.

i put up keep lays barnes sey as i expect most do on the bigger priced horses, had one the other week i kept the lay at 1.5 and it got beat after hitting 1.52 s,happens i spose . also put a thread up a few days ago put up a 1.5 keep lay the horse won and amazingly the keep lay wasnt matched .a few posters said it had happened to them , very rarely but it was probably a glitch in the system that happens sometimes.

That sounds very unique, I’ve not heard of that before tbh.

Sods law

Now, this is the volume I'm used to every day. Imagine if you had a tipster service, how would you reduce the amount of these bets when you know they're all +EV? Maybe cut the uber-long shots, but that's still 12 bets left. People usually don't like to follow more than 5 bets a day because they're lazy, so you have to post fewer bets for no good reason. Then of course the horses you didn't post will win.

Yeah agreed, I’d just post the bigger point selections. Although as you say, Sod’s law would blatantly see the ones I didn’t post go and win.

Sounds like pricewise has copied a few of mine ffs ruining the price ;)

No certainly not a system, just using loads of angles that come from experience of punting on horses for 24 years, legally atleast!

+1.67 points today mainly thanks to Lord Baddesley finishing 4th at a cracking price.
From a personal point of view, I had a disaster when checking my betting account to find that I placed a bet on it to finish top 2, when I was trying to back it top 5.
Still won a bit due to an ew bet with hills but cost me quite a few quid.

Total -0.19 points

Ouch! Yeah I had two get done late.

Atleast you greened up on two

ENGLANDBARNES1
Date Joined: 24 Mar 09
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09 Feb 22 13:04Joined: 24 Mar 09

I normally at least break even each month....

All going as expected then after 2 weeks ??