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This is how dumb laying is
This is how dumb laying is
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Replies: 137
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That 12 pence in each box has to belong to somebody - why not you?
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gaze is currently being accomodated by ricardo & tattoo...
charlie cairoli is tonites cabaret. |
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Why wouldn't I be laying them? 70% to win is good enough, greening up puts me to 90% so it's worth it.
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I should actually overlay and make free bets at 10-20 IR and hope the fav makes a comeback.
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I will miss 5-6 times and then boom, bankroll grows by 30%.
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Is it 10 though, or is it 20, or is it 150?
You don't seem to be able to make up your mind.....until after the race! |
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Bankrol grows by 30pc........time to quit the job
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Paper-boy trading.
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@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0.
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So if I lay a shortie to win 3% of the bankroll, then risk 3% at 10.0, I win 27% of the bankroll 20% of the time.
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Surprisingly many winners drift out to double their bsp and longer in running. A lot of favourites do the same but they don't all win of course. I still maintain that if you are an experienced race watcher over jumps, you can spot the ones that are quite far back and deserve to be shorter in running and take a 2-5 point slice in running. Skinflint was my only bet today. It was favourite but set off in the rear of a big field. Due to fences omitted, the chance to improve its place in running only came on the final bend so it went from 7 to 3.5 very fast. In the end it only finished third but anyone with half an eye could see that once past the chicane along the back straight it would pass most of the ones in front.
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Gaze73312 Jan 22 18:38Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,745 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
@TM I'm currently doing 10 because they kept hitting 11-14.5 when I asked for 15.0. Indeed, but as you have pointed out yourself (many times), now that you are doing them at 10, they will start hitting 8 or 9. And of course they will still hit 150 from time to time and you will feel like your 10 was a poor value bet. |
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Gaze is absolutely spot on. I have been doing this for years and have won several million. Now everyone will be in on it - what a plonker selling the goose
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Millionaires everywhere adjusting their software - to move their "keep bets" from 10 down to 9.80 imo
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Gaze,killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.
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I can't take it anymore I'm going insane, its not 10 or 15 or 20 or 50 or 150. It's 733 how did you not know that
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So first people tell me I'm wrong for years, and suddenly I'm giving out the golden goose.
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If the dumb@ss market didn't realize this in 20 years, it's not going to change now.
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tm....trust me I'm a qualified first aider... gaze...well just fck off will ya and leave me alone, I'll wait till the paramedics get here thx.... tm.....but why? I just want to help you and other people just like you
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Paramedic? - the lad needs a surgeon and a good one at that - the reverse lobotomy is a tricky operation.
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layemall needs psychiatric evaluation if he thinks that anyone has addressed him in this tread.
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oh it was a "joke", well it's a really dumb one. Levelsteakprophet says I'm right. TM has no evidence for his baseless conjectures.
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Backing every favourite yesterday in running at 10.0 would have resulted in a £130 loss at £10 stakes. The 8 winning favourites would have been left unmatched,the 13 losing favourites,well they would have simply helped themselves to your tenner
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Backing every favourite on Tuesday in running at 10.0 would have resulted in a £200 loss at £10 stakes. The 3 winning favourites would have been left unmatched,the 20 losing favourites,well they would have simply helped themselves to your tenner.
33 points down in two days ! |
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Gaze - this is genuine advice - take it or leave it (I suspect the later) - but do yourself (and all of us) a favour - just walk away from in-running and the lure of huge prices.
I think it is distracting you from what should be your objective - you are chasing a big jackpot but most of the big winners on here are just consistent winners. They aren't chasing a big jackpot win every day, they are actually winning very little but they are winning it very often (in many cases probably almost every market they play). You really only need to look at the way the Premium Charge rules are structured to understand this. There are some situations where the "keep bet" function can be used to your advantage (especially in other sports) - but it's a dangerous function and using it as a static bet at a fixed price in some of the fastest moving markets (in-play horse racing) to try to outfox people that make their living from either race-reading and/or a time advantage is only going to end one way (in the long term)! Have a go at pre-race trading or something/anything where you aren't at a huge disadvantage before you even start. |
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TM needs a job in rampton.
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I have applied to be the Security Guard that patrols the computer room!
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TM you have the patience of a saint !
On Monday 4 favourites made a comeback from 10.0+ and won, resulting in a £180 profit on the day. You would still be £150 (15 pts) down on the week though |
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TameTheTiger13 Jan 22 11:02Joined: 27 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 3,555 | Blogger: TameTheTiger's blog
TM you have the patience of a saint ! I've got time on my hands - the garden is frozen, the dog is 15 years old and won't leave the house if it's cold or wet!, no proper racing till 13:50/16:30, no snooker till 13:00, zero liquidity in the Israeli football! |
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Bit Chelmsfordist !
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Not a huge fan of Chelmsford or Newcastle but give me Southwell or Wolverhampton any day of the week!
However in the absence of any proper racing at this time of year Chelmsford and Newcastle - are the next best thing imo - it's as close to proper racing as we will get today.  |
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Guerlain De Vaux 30 IR coincidence
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How much did you get, Gazey? |
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I've actually laid Trition but did not expect this one to win. I shoulda laid both and greened up at 10.
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Eye backed Trishy at the bigger odds. U see how that one didn't come back and win??? #difficulttogetthewinner@biggeroddsduringeachracebuteasyaspieafterwards..
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If you backed it at 3.4 you should have greened up at BSP, it was a clown price with a clown jock.
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What we shoulda backed /layed is the tale of many a skint gambler.
Again ,so easy after the race. |
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Another 10 lost on that race, they took my money 4 hurdles out
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