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These horses have something in common which I'm testing as a lay angle.
Cappananty Con 5,14
Red Heel 4,67
Lucky Man 3,79
One Night In Milan 3,75
Redzone 3,80
Dorking Lad 3,96
GUERNESEY (FR) 3,95
The Newest One 4,05
THE NEWEST ONE (IRE) 4,00
Global Agreement 2,95
Wynford 3,55
Eamon An Cnoic 2,10
Heath Rise 2,05
Vegas Raider 2,75
BONITA B 2,50
Heath Rise 2,05
Court Royale 1,53
Fairmac 2,54
Love Is Golden 2,34
Kettle Hill 2,42
Aurelia Gold 2,30
Porfin 1,65
Bakr 2,76
LUCKY AVA 2,72
Kaleidoscopic 2,79
MUTAMADED (IRE) 2,35
COUL KAT (IRE) 2,12
Silent Flame 2,66
Astaroth 2,22
Brazen Bolt 2,10
Geryville 2,64
Zumaaty 5,60
GLORIOUS RIO 3,40
G FOR GABRIAL 4,30
Diamond Cottage 3,00
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) 4,00
GLAMOROUS FORCE 3,65
GO BATTLE (IRE) 5,10
Impeach 3,80
Mr Wagyu 4,10
KATS BOB 4,10
LIBERATED LAD 3,40
THIRTYFOURSTITCHES (IRE) 3,75
MI LADDO (IRE) 5,14
Rania 5,00
Stroxx 4,10
UBAHHA 5,27
Patsy Fagan 3,35
Rania 5,00
Blazing Hot 3,32
Result: 16-46, almost break even. Now, you want to know the IR prices of the winners? 80, 55, 32, 30, 24, 11, 11, 9. If I included longshots, those are 2-19 with an IR win at 250.
Now, what are the chances of 6 out of 18 winners drifting above 20? Either I'm cosmically unlucky or IR layers are consistently dumb. If I had backed all of those at 20 IR I'd go 6-56 for huge profits with risk-free bets since I laid at BSP. Even if it somehow went 3-59, that's still almost break-even with blind keep bets for no risk. And yet people like TM insist that keep bets are -EV because people with drones will steal my money. They won't if they keep doing such dumb bets.
Cappananty Con 5,14
Red Heel 4,67
Lucky Man 3,79
One Night In Milan 3,75
Redzone 3,80
Dorking Lad 3,96
GUERNESEY (FR) 3,95
The Newest One 4,05
THE NEWEST ONE (IRE) 4,00
Global Agreement 2,95
Wynford 3,55
Eamon An Cnoic 2,10
Heath Rise 2,05
Vegas Raider 2,75
BONITA B 2,50
Heath Rise 2,05
Court Royale 1,53
Fairmac 2,54
Love Is Golden 2,34
Kettle Hill 2,42
Aurelia Gold 2,30
Porfin 1,65
Bakr 2,76
LUCKY AVA 2,72
Kaleidoscopic 2,79
MUTAMADED (IRE) 2,35
COUL KAT (IRE) 2,12
Silent Flame 2,66
Astaroth 2,22
Brazen Bolt 2,10
Geryville 2,64
Zumaaty 5,60
GLORIOUS RIO 3,40
G FOR GABRIAL 4,30
Diamond Cottage 3,00
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) 4,00
GLAMOROUS FORCE 3,65
GO BATTLE (IRE) 5,10
Impeach 3,80
Mr Wagyu 4,10
KATS BOB 4,10
LIBERATED LAD 3,40
THIRTYFOURSTITCHES (IRE) 3,75
MI LADDO (IRE) 5,14
Rania 5,00
Stroxx 4,10
UBAHHA 5,27
Patsy Fagan 3,35
Rania 5,00
Blazing Hot 3,32
Result: 16-46, almost break even. Now, you want to know the IR prices of the winners? 80, 55, 32, 30, 24, 11, 11, 9. If I included longshots, those are 2-19 with an IR win at 250.
Now, what are the chances of 6 out of 18 winners drifting above 20? Either I'm cosmically unlucky or IR layers are consistently dumb. If I had backed all of those at 20 IR I'd go 6-56 for huge profits with risk-free bets since I laid at BSP. Even if it somehow went 3-59, that's still almost break-even with blind keep bets for no risk. And yet people like TM insist that keep bets are -EV because people with drones will steal my money. They won't if they keep doing such dumb bets.
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Pick 50 horses from any 50 races before the races have been run - lay them and roughly break even or lose to commission.
Look at the 50 results after the races - model and calculate what would have happened if you had: 1) Backed them instead of laying them 2) Backed them to place instead of laying them 3) Layed them to place instead of laying them to win 4) Backed them all in running at the highest price matched 5) Layed them all in running at the lowest price matched etc, etc, etc. In the real world (where you placed your bets before the results were known to you) - you have still broken even/lost to commission - but whichever one of the above options works best after the results are known to you (and one or two of them will always work great) - that is the new Holy Grail!  |
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But that's the thing, If I hadn't listened to you a year ago I would have actually backed those high IR prices BEFORE the race. I kept thinking that maybe you're right, that the IR prices are efficient and that my bad will run out one day, but it NEVER did and never will. Now, whenever I lay below 3/1 I'll just green up at 10 IR and win literally 95% of the time.
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I've made at 5-10 topics about this in the past 2 years because that's how consistently it happens. It's like tossing a coin 50 times and getting 40 heads, then the next month it happens again, and the next month again. Now you're telling me it won't happen this month, but it will.
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Gaze73311 Jan 22 10:51Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,725 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Now, whenever I lay below 3/1 I'll just green up at 10 IR and win literally 95% of the time. 1) 95% is utter bollix 2) In your opening post you were gonna green-up at 20 in-running, now you're saying you'll do it at 10  The bottom line is - your are still just after-timing - but rather than after-timing the selections, you are after-timing the prices! You are picking a number (after the race) that will turn your loss into a profit. This is actually holding you back - because rather than accepting that your picks/prices are mediocre (and are showing a loss) and learning from that and getting wiser - you are sticking like a limpet with your losing selections/prices taken and focussing all of your time and energy into manipulating the prices (after the race) to make your losing selections into winners! You only know what price a horse will be matched at in-running after the race, unfortunately you cannot take that price before the race. If you don't understand this (i.e. that you are back-fitting after the race) - you are beyond help! Ironically - from your (after the race) attempts at price manipulation - You could have learned the most valuable lesson (the Holy Grail if you like) - that price is the only thing that matters - now you just need to stop manipulating the prices/numbers (after the race) and focus on how you could in reality be actually getting the prices that would (over time) accumulate a profit. |
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its a wonderful system hes got The Management if he can "get on " after the race.
I personally dont know many layers who offer this service. Other than Betfair i struggle to get owt on before the race!! |
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If Gaze changed his name to Dorothy Paget and rang William Hill after the race, he might get on
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Gaze DM me if you wanna play heads tails.
If Heads only Lands 40% of the time because thats what happened the other 3 months previous I tell you what, instead of 4/6 you can have 4/5? |
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gaze & swad
dean martin & jerry lewis |
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Boris knew.
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability The Golden Rebel 5.1 £10.00 £41.00 Ref: 255599034546 Matched: 13:38 11-Jan-22 |
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You have to know what the horse you're backing or laying is capable of OR is likely to be capable of. And what the other horses are capable of OR likely to be capable of. In terms of ability stamina and temperament. Then you can decide how to bet. eg. Lay to back or back to lay. And at what prices. Sorry Gaze but hard work is needed for each individual race.
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Back-fitting something that works (after the race) "on-paper" is a lot easier than hard work howard!
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happysandwich11 Jan 22 13:51Joined: 06 May 10 | Topic/replies: 2,874 | Blogger: happysandwich's blog
Boris knew. And he would be very proud of you - that you aren't paying any taxes |
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Moriko De Vassy 150 IR PURE COINCIDENCE
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He steamed before the off so they knew he would win.
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Now TM here thinks that Moriko's true odds IR were 150 and I just happened to be on the bad end of variance yet again.
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Gaze73311 Jan 22 14:22Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,726 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Moriko De Vassy 150 IR PURE COINCIDENCE 1) Yes it is 2) You don't half lay a lot of winners! 3) You don't play in running - you do pre-race keep bets! The 150 is completely irrelevant because a) It was probably matched to 12 pence and b) You said you were doing your keep bets at 10. So yet again - before the race, you were doing a keep bet at 10 and after the race (when it's too late) you realise (as does everybody else after the race) that you could have done it much bigger. |
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RUN TO MILAN 55 IR TO 1.25. WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IF HE HAD WON? JUST A CASUAL 1 IN 8250 OCCURENCE
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The only reason I didn't green up Moriko is because he fell LTO and he could've done so again. If it was a flat race I would've greened up at 10.
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And moriko was matched for 2 quid at 150
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Winner matched at 1000 for pennies
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Gaze73311 Jan 22 14:40Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,731 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
And moriko was matched for 2 quid at 150 Was it your 2 quid? - otherwise it's irrelevant! The 14:30 winner was matched at 1000 (for tuppence ha'penny) but if it wasn't yours - so what? As I keep telling you - you are just after-timing the prices - after the race, we can all see the graph - you do realise that, don't you? |
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I could literally post 20 horses here and tell you to back them at 10 IR. 14 would lose, 6 would win at prices between 10-50. Then you'd still be unsatisfied and say something about after-timing.
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I don't have any more time today gaze - book another session with my receptionist on your way out.
But to sum-up todays' session - You have a got a very selective memory and are also suffering from confirmation bias, gamblers fallacy, apophenia and a good number of other medical/mental conditions. |
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you should charge for the consultation T.M
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how many could you actually literally post ? lets try it ???
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No medicine prescribed?
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Doc. - With regard to the gambler's "fallacy", could you please take away the pain but leave the swelling.
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I forgot to diagnose Hot Hand Fallacy - and between this place and all the porn - it seems likely he is a sufferer imo
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Semser 110 to 1.15, I almost got a heart attack. Even drifting favs make ridiculous comebacks. Upon closer inspection the fav drifted because mugs backed Pablo Prince from 45 to 5. That's the most ridiculous steam in a handicap race I've ever seen.
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Pablo was put up ew by that well known mug Hugh Taylor. Did Semser win?
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I don't have selective memory, I log all my bets into spreadsheets.
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If Semser had won it would've been my second 100+ IR winner in 2 days, pure coincidence.
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Gaze73312 Jan 22 15:50Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 6,737 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
If Semser had won it would've been my second 100+ IR winner That's not quite true is it! - If it had won it would have been another horse that got matched in running by somebody (not you!) at 100+ and won. Subtle difference but quite an important difference imo and also in the opinion of your bank manager/mum imo. |
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Celma Des Bois 150 IR another pure coincidence.
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If you backed the field at 150 in every race you would lose long term, stop backfitting your systems.
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Way to miss the point, both of you. On one hand, you believe that the IR odds are correct, on the other hand, you believe that everything that happens to me is pure variance, even if the odds are similar to getting struck by a lightning.
I don't know what's so hard to understand here. Look, I can make another 100 lays at 3.0. 70 horses will lose, 10 will win easily, 20 will win at IR odds between 10-250, let's say 20.0 on average. So if my lays drift to 20, they should win only 5% of the time, and yet they win 20% of the time. It fluctuates between 15 to 50% so I'm being generous here. In 2 years it was certainly never below 10%, let alone 5%. So let's scale up to a two year sample size - 1000 lays at 3.0, 200 winners at average odds 20. You don't find anything wrong with that, just variance. |
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recipe for fruit cake..
more nuts. |
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Gazey, record your screen while capturing all this INSANE 3-fig odds of value. Post here daily for 1 solid month. The p&l will be UNDENIABLE for ALL(even for TM)
WITHOUT the above you'll forever be embroiled in a no-win argument. |
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Your 16:19 post is utter bollix.
But just say it were true - why are you laying ANY of them in the first place? Shirley just stick up your 12 pence keep bet (a back) at 150 and retire to the lounge to peruse your bote catalogue? |