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Over past couple of days been re-reading Fineform by Clive Holt. Had my copy since 1989 but still love reading his diary of three months on-course betting.
Very sad to see how the on course market has changed so much now but, in my view, the simple formula Holt devised for rating horses is still a good a starting point as ever when looking at a race.
But there is one line at the end of the book that always makes me laugh. It is where he says 'we keep a herd of deer at our place, more for the kids'. Seems so out of place and given his early humble days was quite a rise!!
Holt is long gone now but his simple way of looking at form does show that the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid) still holds true. Regardless of his apparent success at punting, that book and its follow-ups must have paid for those deer a good few times over.
I assume at least some on here have read and still recall that book?
Very sad to see how the on course market has changed so much now but, in my view, the simple formula Holt devised for rating horses is still a good a starting point as ever when looking at a race.
But there is one line at the end of the book that always makes me laugh. It is where he says 'we keep a herd of deer at our place, more for the kids'. Seems so out of place and given his early humble days was quite a rise!!
Holt is long gone now but his simple way of looking at form does show that the KISS principle (Keep It Simple Stupid) still holds true. Regardless of his apparent success at punting, that book and its follow-ups must have paid for those deer a good few times over.
I assume at least some on here have read and still recall that book?
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Very informative,taken the stakes to be placed at the given odds,giving an idea similar to the Kelly criterion,but on presented odds.
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It's on the shelf so I must have read it at once, a long time ago, though I can't remember it in any detail apart from it started with his going pro after amassing a number of unopened pay packets, itself a sign of its age! The basic method was counting (or adding?) the form figures, wasn't it?
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something like that ramruna, so many points for a win last time out , 2nd last time out, course winner , distance winner etc but i cant remember the exact details.
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Winner last time out - 5 poits
second - 3 points third - 2 points fourth - 1 point C&D winner = 3 points Distance winner = 1 point |
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Its on my shelf too, with the Tony Peach VDW pamphlets directly below!
I still remember my excitement buying the book, thought at the time that it was my way out of a career of boring accountancy....it wasnt still, as you say its a good starting point. So many horses just do not want to win and the rare ones that do run up sequences. The real triers like Dashel drasher for instance |
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zzzorro, was it also 2pts for a course winner?
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1 pt for a course winner.
All applied to the horses last two races. |
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A good book but I prefer Come Fly With The Butterfly by John Mort Green.
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Butterfly -- stay off the booze and ignore the cover picture of the author with two bottles of Moet!
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2 meetings ago Cheltenham did a yankee rare for me 3 out of 4 won as i remembered course winners sometimes tend to do well at cheltenham and it looked a trappy day so plan b was used i first used the method when i had a 8/1 cheltenham winner 30 years ago with 100 on it lol and thanks to fineform i occasionally use it, clive had a nice place just outside Middlenham he was at most northern tracks every day
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I remember the adverts for this book were very enticing each weeks loads of winners at great odds forecast tri casts big payouts so I did buy a copy many moons ago enjoyed reading it and the follow up winners back winners the 3 month diary was most interesting my problem the points based system 5 PTS for a win LTO but that could have been a 3 horse race another horse wins LTO in a 18 runner race and gets the same 5 PTS I did like the idea of certain stakes to there odds
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Yeah, he had a little place in Morcombe Bay where he set up as his book dispatch and tipping centre. The first book was best for the odd big price winner with some great CSF for good measure but if you wanted more winners then his master formula was the book for you. Really the only difference was he added points for the first 3 in the betting forecast and again more for being in the top 3 on form ratings. I had my own little take on it basically a starting short list if in the top 5 or 6 on his ratings depending on the type of race. Also best to forget some types of race and in a lot of cases also better to go against the fav as in the long run better profits to be had in the 7/2-7/1 range but in big H,caps up to 16/1 looked at. All the best to one and all.
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It works at York a lot, not all the time but i went to the ebor meeting last summer and it looked hard on the thursday i was struggling to find bets on a social drinking day out, big handicap 2 c/d winners had 10 ew on the 2 on the tote the flying ginger 40/1 on the tote paid for the day lol, down to clive that one
see the flying gingers should be running there again soon maybe ebor although price will be shorter they seem to line it up for then |
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Celtic warrior - ...So many horses just do not want to win and the rare ones that do run up sequences...
So true. I remember Sir Mark Prescott many moons ago, suggesting horses tolerate a training regime and racing on the track for a period of time, but eventually sour of it. Backing horses who run up winning sequences has always been my most successful punting and the trick is spotting it earlier enough to get a decent price. |
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I read the Fineform by Clive Holt book in the early 80's. Quite enjoyed the read at the time but doubt it really helped other than make me think more systematically about betting.
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That's right SA. What's really handy is being certain you are looking at a Listed horse when it's on 75-80. Not many of the pundits can do that.
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Current Season’s two previous outings
1st 5 points 2nd 3 points 3rd 2 points 4th 1 point Course and Distance success Course and Distance 3 points Distance 2 points Course 1 point Current Season’s two previous outings 1st 6 points 2nd 4 points 3rd 3 points 4th 2 point 5th + 1 point Course and Distance success Course and Distance 5 points Distance 3 points Course 2 points |
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Read that and his Winners Always Back Winners many moons ago.
Frankly, was surprised he was so successful given it all seemed, well, a bit basic, really. To give a rather exaggerated example : horse runs a close up 3rd in the Derby LTO - gets 2 points. LTO winner of a seller, in contrast, gets 5 points. It's pretty obvious which of the two would win a match race next time out, all other things being equal. Maybe he catered for that in the other book mentioned here ( Master Formula ? ) by considering ratings. A very similar system is doing the rounds now : The Larkspur Method. That suffers from many of the defects I felt Fineform had, but then I suppose it does at least provide a reasonably systematic way of going about your form study if you're new to the game, from which you can then move away from as you gain more experience. |
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"that book and its follow-ups must have paid for those deer a good few times over"
Don't know it for fact, but I heard he was a Millionaire, didn't make his fortune from backing horses he made it from selling that book. Advertising it for years with full page adverts in the sporting press, very enticing adverts cleverly worded. Before he came up with that book/system he was advertising systems in the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book. |
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bluebook...you give a good example of where the FF formula should fall down. But it doesn't as often as might think it does. What the vast majority of us do is exactly what you are saying in your example - compare classes of race but unless they are as extreme as your example, I have never found that to work as well as I'd like.
Let's also remember that when Holt first came up with his method, it was quite advanced for the time. I think the main reason the method is still such a good starting point with a race is what has already been mentioned on this thread - lots and lots of horses just cannot, or will not, run to their ability. Hence, a horse with form figures of 121 and C/D has shown it is currently putting it all in. As for the Master Formula he went on to produce in the second book, well that is now very dated because it relies upon awarding points for the betting forecast. Back then the betting forecasts in the sporting papers were good but now they are well off. It's on here where the betting is most accurate but that can swing about and so this part of the 'Master Formula' is not so relevant. |
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followed it in 1990 on the flat got some big winners knight of mercy 14-1 stewards cup eradicate 12-1 zetland cup didnt work that well on jumps and next seasons flat so switched to timeform 50 to follow
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Puzzled as to why there are two scoring methods given by Greg_Gory.
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Don't know it for fact, but I heard he was a Millionaire, didn't make his fortune from backing horses he made it from selling that book.
Clive was racing everyday in the north i remember him working on a system backing maidens i saw his book turned over 150k with the books he used to be racing around for the prices on the flat and the day at york where he backed with cash the 20/1 ebor winner and he gave it out he was happy that day. nice kind man and very clever to come out with a formula that will stand the test of time i still use it not every day by any means, but to my own method especially where its handicaps or hard races and social race days. know for a fact he was up at 6 everyday and kept meticulousness records to back up his claims, he worked hard |
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Like many I suspect I was intrigued by the SL ads. I feared being mugged off but eventually succumbed. I'd been punting doubles trebles and all sorts of other combinations for around 15 years at the time, and thought, "well I can only be conned once".
It's fair to say that that little book changed everything. Ok the formula was a hook, a bit of fluff, and took no account of the relative merit of performance. But the rest laid out the principles of successful betting. It was the first time I'd given any thought to price and relative chances as he worked out, albeit crudley, what was a fair price at which to bet. Just the very act of deciding not to back the likeliest winner based soley on price, opened my eyes wide and I never looked back. The way that he showed a steady accumulation of the bank, rather than the once a year windfall, offsetting some of the inevitable losses was, so seductive. Yes I've refined my approach over many years since, including with the help of other more sophisticated guides. But Clive Holt is the foundation of everything I do. I'm no pro, but the excitement I get from trying to act and think like one is the draw. The book was called "Be a successful punter with Fineform as your guide". I did just that. |
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Surprised he did not factor in ground conditions or the jockey.
Must have had his reasons. |
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Just realised I was muddling him with Stewart Simpson's publication. Still, I do remember reading Holt's too.
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Reading Nick Mordins Winning Without Thinking having taken it down after many years sitting on the shelf. Boy is it hard work , after 2 weeks still only on page 78 of 400 and odd...
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I enjoyed Mordin's books.
Why are you finding it hard work ? |
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I thought Mordins other book was a decent intro to form study, How to bet for a living or similar, early 90s, just after Fineform.
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FF Sake - You must be absolutely Joking !
Mordin - of All people - "a decent intro to [b]form [b]study" ... 'Never in a million'. ... absolutely Never. There are some NAIVE 'Innocents Abroad' on this Thread .... and Not Just the above Poster. |
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Blue book its in very small print for a start and is mostly about how he devised his systems in a blow by blow manner , there were many of them. I had glanced over it several years ago but finding it hard work now.
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With full page adverts costing into 4 figures even back then... and personally knew an extremely tight and cynical guy/small punter. Was amazed he bought anything "tipping " wise. I thought then if he's bought it nearly everyone will have. So I would be amazed if he didn't make several thousands a week gross from the books.
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No joke onlooker, was the the first book I'd read that got me wanting to delve further.
Which I'm guessing was the whole point of the book, not take to him as gospel, as from memory it was one win bet and forecast which made his totals. |
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I am Nit 'Joking' - either.
Mordin was just a 'Speed Figures' Merchant - with a ridiculously narrow range of figures - even for Group Race performances - of between around 33 - 48. That was, partially, because he did NOT Adjust his Figures for Weight carried, or to be carried. Met him a few times, years ago - Bit of a 'boffin type' mentality. (who never seemed to wash his pullovers - True  )But a FORM student - I repeat - FORM - Never in a million years Just a Speed Figures devotee .... and Speed Figures simply cannot work out MOST of the time - let alone all the time. |
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Met him a few times, years ago - Bit of a 'boffin type' mentality. (who never seemed to wash his pullovers - True Happy )...
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Value Betting by Mark Coton another good one was he the original Pricewise guy in the Racing Post
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Mordin's writing never ceased to fascinate me, but I don't think I backed a single winner on the back of anything he wrote. Winning without thinking was the biggest misnomer ever.
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@ Bluebook
other one was Fineform Adjusted posted on here a while back. |