There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 66 comments are related to the topic:
Fineform and Clive Holt
Fineform and Clive Holt
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 66
|
By:
Utter nonsense to say that Mordin was just a speed figure merchant.
He was into horse profiling in a big way : similar to the work Andrew Mount does |
|
By:
When I began this thread I said that Fineform was as good as anything else as a STARTING point for studying a race. And that's because it is quite simple whereas all the Mordin stuff is pretty complex.
Indeed, I believe that Mordin, plus many TV pundits, are guilty of over complicating their analysis. There is a point in all form study, horse profiling, speed-figure analysis and the rest, where it becomes just too involved and then no decision can be reached. I think that's what did for Mordin eventually, he burned himself out with just too much analysis and could not see the wood for the trees. Something Clive Holt never did! |
|
By:
dukeofpuke24 Jun 22 19:27Joined: 04 May 03 | Topic/replies: 17,105 | Blogger: dukeofpuke's blog
Value Betting by Mark Coton another good one was he the original Pricewise guy in the Racing Post duke, Mark Coton, yep! Originator of Pricewise back in the day and the Value Betting book (about 1990) was a wonderful starter for making your own tissue and looking for value. Great fun! And still very valid, imo! |
|
By:
Although most racing pundits will try and justify their selections with hard form facts. Looking at form is more of an art form than a black and white logical mathematical solution.there’s too many variables to use a simplistic calculation to find the answer to the winner of most races.
The hard bit is developing this art whilst still applying basic logic. 50% of times horse A beats horse B. Then 50% of the time horse B will beat horse A next time. Because of different variables. Learning these variables takes years and ends up becoming an art rather than a skill. But the simplistic bit of racing is. Various systems work in finding winners. From Race card numbers Names Class Horses for courses Jockeys Trainers Owners Goings Distance Improvers Well hcped You name it. There’s a reason why a horse might win. Knowing which reason it will be today. Is the art. |
|
By:
you can add 'because its geared up to the nines' to that list
|
|
By:
Thanks for that explanation Greg_Gory.
Actually, steerforth, I do remember Mordin putting me on to at least one winner : FALBRAV. Backed him in the Eclipse stakes at Sandown in 2003 at 8/1. Oh, happy days !  |
|
By:
Mordin wrote a book on speed, but Betting For A Living was all about form. Specifically, it was about the profiling of form to match the conditions on the day. It was the discarding of any "below" form performances that didn't meet the conditions presented that added that layer of compexity that was fatal in my view. It became a mantra (at least within that book), and started to resemble a confirmation bias. He picked a few winners out, but his methods led to plenty of losers and missed winners when I tried to put it to work.
I wouldn't call form study an Art - wrong term I think, but it's definitely "a feel". And that sense comes and goes. I can be right in the zone for a week or so, then it deserts me for a while, then comes back. And part of being in and out of the zone, is that you know which it is at the time. When you feel right press up. |
|
By:
Can't believe this one hasn't been mentioned yet.
A timeless classic written by John White, that I got hold of back in the early 90s.... [ This image is no longer available. ] The rest, as they say, is history. |
|
By:
I had that one too for a while.
Seem to remember going through the races in bed in the morning using the Daily Mirror,all while eating toast and drinking lots of tea. By the time the paper got to my dad, it'd be covered in grease spots... .  |
|
By:
And that's interesting what you say, steerforth, about the 'feel' coming and going. I'm very much the same. Sometimes it all seems so easy, and at other times impossibly difficult. But then I also think that in my case it also depends on my moods : whether I'm up, down or -rarely- on an even keel. Think it's fatal to be either up or down when betting as it seriously impairs your decision making.
Currently finding it bloody hard ! |
|
By:
Or do as I did yesterday look at them in the paddock , two stand outs yesterday were Wexford Native missed the 4/1 on offer took 10/30 Fav was really on his toes for about 15 mins in the paddock, Westover looked really strong and Tuesday on the other hand looked as if she had had a hard enough few weeks. If it was only always that easy...
|
|
By:
Remember only too well 'Racing:Systems with the Pocket Calculator'. Spent hours trying to come to terms with it but had to admit failure. If memory serves found it far too complex. Still have Clive Holt's books,though along with the masterpiece 'Winning Ways To Bet' by Methodmaker containing the VDW Approach to winner-finding. Happy days!!!!
|
|
By:
Never heard of that one by Methodmaker. Strange really, since I see it was a Raceform publication, and I thought I knew most of their publications.
|
|
By:
I,ve read betting for a living , fineform etc . Clive studies in the grounds of his mansion , he was a engineer ? Proven , Promising , profit . Nick was about kempton mostly nh , form , but , mostly wellbeing in the parade ring . Great reads , lost them over time , but , still remember .
|
|
By:
Proven , Progressive and profit
|
|
By:
Holt and Mordin were probably the most significant writers of the past fifty years, in that each inspired a new generation of professionals. Even if they were wrong in every detail, their core message was that racing is a game that can be analysed and conquered; it is rational and not merely equine roulette or entirely corrupt.
|
|
By:
Always back winners by stewart simpson
Every andrew beyer book Every mordin book, espec mordin on speed For the novice: Braddocks complete guide a masterful book |
|
By:
A fair point, Ramruma, but speaking personally those books and endless adverts had the opposite effect. They suggested that propunting was not a real thing: just a fantasy to hook the gullible.
The inspiration for me - the thing which kept me believing - was Dodger McCartney. And specifically the pair of articles Brough Scott wrote about him in the Sunday Times. Going punting with Dodger at Ascot one day, bumping into Dodger at Folkestone another. I desperately wanted to be Dodger, and without Brough Scott's introduction to the man in those newspaper columns, I don't think I would have persevered with the sport all through my teens and twenties. Right up until the glorious day when Nigel Lawson abolished the on-course tax, and made propunting a genuine possibility for anybody. |
|
By:
 |
|
By:
 |
|
By:
In terms of analysing a race and then producing a bet from it , I've shied away from a analytical approach . We can all say whom should win , most often than not though , their is a horse whom,s price doesn't reflect its profile and is of interest . I tend to bet these . That has been successful . As ever though that has changed and I think that theirs a snowball effect from that angle being successful. bookies can step in and start a snowball with a horse thats not fancied , but , make it look like it is . So you cant get steamers that were never expected , bet like certs ! cos the bookies painted him up as a steamer and everyone looking for the steamer rode in . For me im gonna look at the form again as i think the market just looks at the money movement
|
|
By:
Does anyone know what Clive died from?
|
|
By:
I'm on holiday for a couple of weeks, dusted down my copy of
Be a Successful Punter by Clive Holt. I haven't read it in 30+ years, a few pages missing but almost fully intact, will pass a bit of time in the sun. |
|
By:
Also same author Profitable Betting Strategies pale green cover 1989
a breakdown without giving much away winners in your newspapers winners from form winners on time winners from the wing The back paqe has a great 'taking a chance' that all bookmakers know but dont want their customers to know and even if a thousand mug punters read the back page would say bullsh!t |
|
By:
Does anyone know what Clive died from?
the dreaded cancer, he had a young daughter as well |
|
By:
Thanks for that know all, very sad,I liked Clive.
Dukeofpuke Any idea where I could see that page, or even get the book. |
|
By:
The deceptively simple Fineform Ratings are still churning out the winners. I limit bets to horses that came 1st or 2nd last time out and are clear on the ratings. Sandret @ 10/3 and Masterdream @ 16/5 are two I backed today. I avoid maximum rated horses in handicaps though. Especially in handicaps over the jumps. More often than not they get beaten at short odds. They're actually a good source of bets for punters who like to lay horses to lose.
 |