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Win or lose this is now a rancid price perhaps worst value over all 4 days. But Punters still steaming in.......
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agree so laying 2.44/2.46 Crazy price.
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into 2.36!!
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appreciate it gone the same way 1.76.
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I don’t get the absurd fascination with perceived value and prices by punters . Since time began we are listening to people who won’t back favourites because they are too short , but will back outsiders who usually have no chance , because they are “value “. Well to me it’s all about winning and losing and honeysuckle doesn’t know what price she is . She may be shorter than she should be but she’s clearly a likely winner . Personally I could see her winning , I wouldn’t have backed her at 5/2 , and I certainly wont be backing her now , but on the flipside I’m not going to go knee deep laying her just because she looks underpriced. In all likelihood there is something wrong with one of the main challengers , which is obviously not in the public domain . It will be interesting to see how the race pans out
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Crazy price
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Honeysuckle should be as short as Appreciate It imo. Around 7/4 each. My £2 on Dusart for the Supreme went south weeks ago so I will be sitting that one out but I am on Honeysuckle at 3.95 and that will do for me.
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I don’t lay horses very often. Clan Des Obeux KG was the last one.
This is getting very tempting. |
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10 runs, 10 wins unbeaten, running against epatante (hendo form all year totally awful, v disppointing against silver streak lto) classy but not 4 me this time, goshen a novice (again beat next to nowt)....v short but what price would you say was value 3-1 ish??? and ex;lsed horses with placed form in race eg sstreak and sharjah which i can see both running big races but not being quite good enough
you are right 6-4 is now becoming too short but honeysuckle is by far the likeliest winner imo, ground spot on....and i think it wwill win but at the prices strictly from a value point of view can anyone tell me why silver streak is 25-1 and epatante just 4-1 |
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robo16 Mar 21 08:50Joined: 04 Nov 06 | Topic/replies: 1,218 | Blogger: robo's blog
I don’t get the absurd fascination with perceived value and prices by punters . For anyone who doesnt think price matters Back every fav @ top Betfair Exchange price you will win money Back every fav @ bottom Betfair Exchange price you will lose money Likewise: Lay every fav @ top Betfair Exchange price you will lose money Lay every fav @ bottom Betfair Exchange price you will win money The above was easy to type but unfortunately impossible to achieve. So @ the end of the day you need to be as close to those win parameters as you can |
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goshen is a drifter (as i expected it would be as their are massive ?'s over its form and whether it is good enough adn 4-1 was far too short, i think its a huge place lay) so that partly explains why honeysuckle has come in....epatante itself looks good value to me (if priced on last years win you'd expect it to be a 2-1/5-2 shot). Its all ifs and buts with value though....personally think honeysuckle is the one to beat, there are fewest ? marks and until this horse is beaten imo it's one to keep with....
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Most of her wins have been over 2 1/2m admittedly she has also won the 2m Irish Champion Hurdle twice but she's poor value and I've looked elsewhere, Goshen 5/1 EW 4 places and Abracadabras 10/1 ditto.
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Morning biscuit, did you take a sabbatical, haven't seen you posting for ages
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'Lay' at 2.28 for a small stake. She's was too short. She may still win but just feel her last form was suspect.
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Fred back to 6/4
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I don't like it when top mares get 7lb so won't be laying.
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Looking at the ground after the first, I imagine she will start to drift now.
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that clearly aint soft ground and think shes been backed on the premise it is which would suit her more than Epatante/Abacadabras/Sharjah
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Supreme 11 seconds quicker than last year.
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that looked a special supreme winner to me
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Fast ground suits Epatante better.
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honeysuckle ev money to run near 3 mins 55 nah thanks
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You have to brave to back her on that ground.
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and the horse,
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Bookies are running scared. They are still hammering into Honeysuckle. She's 11/10 and 'even' money. Sheer madness!
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Shes Amazing you see.
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I'll back her 'til she beaten
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Agree too short but the Leopardstown run wins this.
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well done backers.
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Hacked up
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Boom
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can't moan about that ....how did it go off odds against lol....
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different class, spent all race watching goshen
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good price
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rancid price
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Great to watch
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be 4-7 next year.
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Well done Honeysuckle and Blackmore! An emphatic win. The rest no where. Same again next year. Well done backers.
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hilbore..totally clueless tdc.
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She is a lovely mare....but the 2nd tells me it was sub standard again in terms of champion hurdle class
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