Honeysuckle 6/4

agree so laying 2.44/2.46  Crazy price.

into 2.36!!

appreciate it gone the same way 1.76.

I don’t get the absurd fascination with perceived value and prices by punters . Since time began we are listening to people who won’t back favourites because they are too short , but will back outsiders who usually have no chance , because they are “value “. Well to me it’s all about winning and losing and honeysuckle doesn’t know what price she is . She may be shorter than she should be but she’s clearly a likely winner . Personally I could see her winning , I wouldn’t have backed her at 5/2 , and I certainly wont be backing her now , but on the flipside I’m not going to go knee deep laying her just because she looks underpriced. In all likelihood there is something wrong with one of the main challengers , which is obviously not in the public domain . It will be interesting to see how the race pans out

Crazy price

Honeysuckle should be as short as Appreciate It imo. Around 7/4 each. My £2 on Dusart for the Supreme went south weeks ago so I will be sitting that one out but I am on Honeysuckle at 3.95 and that will do for me.

I don’t lay horses very often. Clan Des Obeux KG was the last one.

This is getting very tempting.

10 runs, 10 wins unbeaten, running against epatante (hendo form all year totally awful, v disppointing against silver streak lto) classy but not 4 me this time, goshen a novice (again beat next to nowt)....v short but what price would you say was value 3-1 ish??? and ex;lsed horses with placed form in race eg sstreak and sharjah which i can see both running big races but not being quite good enough

you are right 6-4 is now becoming too short but honeysuckle is by far the likeliest winner imo, ground spot on....and i think it wwill win but

at the prices strictly from a value point of view can anyone tell me why silver streak is 25-1 and epatante just 4-1

robo16 Mar 21 08:50Joined: 04 Nov 06 | Topic/replies: 1,218 | Blogger: robo's blog
I don’t get the absurd fascination with perceived value and prices by punters .


For anyone who doesnt think price matters

Back every fav @ top Betfair Exchange price you will win money
Back every fav @ bottom Betfair Exchange price you will lose money

Likewise:

Lay every fav @ top Betfair Exchange price you will lose money
Lay every fav @ bottom Betfair Exchange price you will win money


The above was easy to type but unfortunately impossible to achieve.
So @ the end of the day you need to be as close to those win parameters as you can

goshen is a drifter (as i expected it would be as their are massive ?'s over its form and whether it is good enough adn 4-1 was far too short, i think its a huge place lay) so that partly explains why honeysuckle has come in....epatante itself looks good value to me (if priced on last years win you'd expect it to be a 2-1/5-2 shot). Its all ifs and buts with value though....personally think honeysuckle is the one to beat, there are fewest ? marks and until this horse is beaten imo it's one to keep with....

Most of her wins have been over 2 1/2m admittedly she has also won the 2m Irish Champion Hurdle twice but she's poor value and I've looked elsewhere, Goshen 5/1 EW 4 places and Abracadabras 10/1 ditto.

Morning biscuit, did you take a sabbatical, haven't seen you posting for ages

'Lay' at 2.28 for a small stake. She's was too short. She may still win but just feel her last form was suspect.

Fred back to 6/4

I don't like it when top mares get 7lb so won't be laying.

Looking at the ground after the first, I imagine she will start to drift now.

that clearly aint soft ground and think shes been backed on the premise it is which would suit her more than Epatante/Abacadabras/Sharjah

Supreme 11 seconds quicker than last year.

that looked a special supreme winner to me

Fast ground suits Epatante better.

honeysuckle ev money to run near 3 mins 55 nah thanks

You have to brave to back her on that ground.

and the horse,

Bookies are running scared. They are still hammering into Honeysuckle. She's 11/10 and 'even' money. Sheer madness!

Shes Amazing you see.

I'll back her 'til she beaten

Agree too short but the Leopardstown run wins this.

well done backers.

Hacked up

Boom

can't moan about that ....how did it go off odds against lol....

different class, spent all race watching goshen

good price

rancid price

Great to watch

be 4-7 next year.

Well done Honeysuckle and Blackmore! An emphatic win. The rest no where. Same again next year. Well done backers.

hilbore..totally clueless tdc.

She is a lovely mare....but the 2nd tells me it was sub standard again in terms of champion hurdle class

Honeysuckle 6/4

Hibore 16 Mar 21 08:25 
Win or lose this is now a rancid price perhaps worst value over all 4 days. But Punters still steaming in.......

Hibore 16 Mar 21 10:51 
I don’t lay horses very often. Clan Des Obeux KG was the last one.

This is getting very tempting.

so,its a rancid price and its tempting? wac

be 4-7 next year. Should imagine it aint far off that now for next year

I would say that was the most impressive Champion Hurdle win for quite a while. Seemed as if she actually improved for the better ground. Jockey didn't panic when she couldn't sit as close to the pace as last time.

Not great for the ex-Elliott horses so far - Milan Native jumped terrible and Abacadabras on the deck.

Unreal. a privelige to watch a class horse like that.

greeny thank goodness he doesn't lay very often

seen the owner getting interviewed yesterday ,seemed one of the good guys

6/4 looks good now!

I specialize in fav lays and Honey looked like a cert to me. The big steam sealed the deal. You need a damn good reason to lay a big steamer.

I also made a thread recently that horses with a hat trick are unlayable, this one had a 10 trick.

I really good performance from honeysuckle but the others did not look up to much would not rate it as one of the top ten champion hurdles but i am getting on a bit.

I specialize in fav lays and Honey looked like a cert to me

6/4 was very good. Blackmore was tactically brilliant. And, the horse...absolutely scintillating. Epatante was put in her place despite not given the best of ride; Sharjah ran his heart out and was 2nd (again).

Weight Allowance Sexist IMO , get rid of it , no need for this caper in this day and age

Agree about the weight allowance should be a level playing field

wasn't the case today but if they don't change it a mare might win by a hard ridden length and for a year it's called the champion hurdler.

I have seen 60 Champion Hurdles and before the start I would have said it was an average CH but the way she won was just awesome. The rest were very average but how far could she have won? The 7lb mares allowance is academic.

Gaze733 16 Mar 21 16:26 
I specialize in fav lays and Honey looked like a cert to me.

last 3mths losing.

this gaze733 poster got to be a wind up surely ...no one can be that stupid on a daily basis..can they?

Well it was a cert wasn't it? I said in my lay thread I'm not laying it. Clown layers.

I tell you steamers never lose but nobody listens.

If only. Remember a few of Nicholls on saturday?