TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

4.0 Wolv(3) Poets Pride 5/2, 5.15 Ponte (5) Quoteline Direct 3/1 & 8.20 Uttox (4) Farmer Boy 9/2) = £20 stake with potential return of £661.20

Reasons for selections:

POETS PRIDE is in terrific form and can defy a 7lb rise in the weights.

QUOTELINE DIRECT won the race last year and is weighted almost to be on equal terms with Edgar Alan Poe.  Did not have a clear run in that race and I am hopeful will come out on top today

FARMER BOY has solid credentials and is taken to beat the market hotpot Oscar Maguire.  Mrs Miggins has to be feared

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Complete disaster today; 9th 9/2, last 7/2 and 9th 9/2.  I even got it wrong with my back/lay in the third leg.  Let#s forget it and move on

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £140 = £2,398.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

stewarts rise • July 8, 2019 12:28 PM BST
Shame that you are not getting many replies, i expect it's because it's rather slow and complicated......

Or maybe that it's not being very successful? Seems a good idea but you still need to find winners

TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

4.20 Yar (1)Raucus 5/2, 7.45 KM (2) Victory Chime 7/2 and 8.15 Km (13) Blazon 4/1 = £4 staked with potential return of £672.40

Reasons for selections:

RAUCUS has more class2 experience

VICTORY CHIME has arguably been running better than Get Back Get Back

BLAZON I am hoping that Sylevster will work the oracle and get this one back on track

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One 4th 9/2, 4th 5/2 and 4th 4/1

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £160 = £2,378.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.35 NM (3) One Master 5/2, 4.45 NM (3) Breathtaking Look 4/1,  York 5.30 (1) Irreverent 3/1 = £20 stake with a potential return of £607.40

Reason fro selections: no time today   

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No Trixie yesterday so ban remains the same.

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £180 = £2,358.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

Only three class 3 races today and two of them with shorter odds than I like.  The C4’s are not much better so I’ll give the Trixie’s a miss today.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

A fourth at 3/1, an 8th at 9/4f and a winner at 2/1F so all well-fancied selections but not even a double achieved.  My other bets almost paid for the Trixie so it’s not all bad.

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £200 = £2,318.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I could only find 5 races to check through today 3 class 4 and 2 class 5; nothing inspires me to put any of the selections in a Trixie today

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One winner 3/1, a 3rd 9/2 and a 2nd 11/2 so no cigar.  At least I got my money back with a back/lay on Sash in the 7.0 at Windsor (not included in the Trixie bet)

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £240 = £2,298.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

Supreme Steel ran a bizarre race. Well done with HS

NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I could only find 4 suitable day time races today but the odds of the favourites are around 2/1 so I’ll pass.  There are a couple of races at Ffos Las 8.00 & 8.30 where I may find a back to lay selection but not enough choices for me to find a Trixie today.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Last 11/4F, 8th 11/4F and Won 9/4F by a begrudging nose

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £260 = £2,278.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

Good luck; I have backed LL too so hope it doesn't jinx your bet!

TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

5.15 Rip (4) Montalvan 3/1, 5.20 Nb (8) George William 7/2, 5.35 NM (8) Qutob 3/1 = £20 stake with a potential return of £620.00

No time for reasons for selections today

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

4th 3/1, 3rd 15/8F and 3rd 5/2F So much for fancied horses doing well in the summer months

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £280 = £2,258.61 C/Fwd  ROI N/A

NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS YET TODAY

I don’t like any runners in the afternoon races today.  I started to look at the 5.30 at Carlisle with Canford Thompson.  Not sure about it running 2 days after its last run; it usually has 3-4 weeks between races; only in Feb 2018 did it race within a few days of its last run, but that was on the flat.  As they say if in doubt leave it out.  I may come back later but I am not overly impressed with today’s mainly class 6 action with horses at 3/1 above for the favourites. 

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One winner and two seconds so no return today.  Since the first one was a winner I did an in-running lay bet for £21.05@ 2.06 to recover my £20 stake money.  Luckily it got matched so I did not show a personal loss on the day. 

It seemed odd to me that David Pipe’s Ourmullion showed the much-improved form to beat Riviere Argentee by 8 lengths!  Imagine how shocked I was to find that David Pipe’s other horse Picture Painter brushed aside Alanjou by 1and ¾ lengths at 25/1 (48.00) BSP.  I have to tell you that I was looking around at the race meetings today with a view to back any of David Pipe’s horses today.  Sadly there are none.  Phenomenal improvement for both these horses!!

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £240 = £2,298.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A

@roadrunner46 Just because a strategie has a series of losing sequences does NOT mean that it is unprofitable. Indeed my little project is intended to show that if one uses a realistic bank and allows for a series of losers then when a Trixie occurs then it will indeed go into profit.  Since beginning this strategy almost two months ago I have had 5 winning doubles.  Two of those almost landed Trixies.  Had this had happened I would be well in profit and everyone would have said that it was a fluke and I would just carry on until all my profit was gone.  It is a long term strategy where three fancied runners are bound to click and all win now and again. There is also a good chance of a regular double coming along as well.

I don't understand it when you say that the prices are low; my aim is to make selections at prices of 3/1 and above.  Sometimes, i reluctantly have to accept prices at 5/2. My aim is to at least achieve a £500 return on my Trixies should all 3 selections win for a £20 stake.

You are not the only one who doesn't seem to understand my "Lay" strategy should I have a winner in either the first or second leg of a Trixie.  Should I get a winner in the first or second leg of a Trixie I make an insurance lay bet so as to try and retrieve my stake should the double not win.  In yesterday's case, the cash out for the double was something like £14 and a potential return of £78 should the double come in.  Had I cashed out I wouls have lost £6.  Had the double came in I would have received £78 - £20 = £58.  Instead, I layed my selection for £21.05 @ 2.04 = + £20 versus -£21.89 should the selction win the race.  Had this happened I would have won £78 -£20 - £21.89 = £36.11 on the day. I like the idea of saving my stake when my selection is running at a just over a 50% chance of winning a race. Sure, it dents profitabilty by £21.89 when the horse wins but on countless occasions I have seen horses trade very short in running and lose its race.  It just seems seems a very sensible practice to me that aids money management.

I may be going around in CYCLES but definitely not in circles.

@roadrunner46 I thought that I had explained that I am using a sensible strategy for my money management with my insurance "lay" bets should one of my 1st or 2nd leg Trixie bets wins. I should point out that if I execute such a lay bet and the second part of my double runs a stinker e.g. falls at the first fence and the before the off price is at say 4.0 then the bet just not get matched and I lose the whole of my Trixie stake.  However, let's assume that the in-running market gets it right and that 50% of the time when the lay bet is matched that the selction wins and 50% of the time the lay selection loses.  Let's use 100 races and see the perfect results.  Hence 50 x £21.89 = £1,094.50 loss and 50 x £20 = £1,000.00 = minus £94.00 over 100 bets! so you still think I'm wrong? Well 50% of the time when the horse wins I still win a double.  The other 50% of the time I get my stake back.  I was going to suggest to you that you try this out for yourself, however, I fear that because of your earlier remarks that most of your selections are quite a way above my gemeral odds of 3/1.  That's not a problem in itself, however, my selections are generally very well fancied horses to win their races.  What this means when it comes to in-running trading is that when a well fancied horse begins to show good improvement during a race the market focuses on that horse and the odds can shorten rapidly just for that very reason.  I am not so confident that this would occur with higher priced selections with one, two or possibly three runners in front of it in the betting.  The higher priced horses have to be running extremely well for their price to drop below 2.0.  I hope that this explains to you that I am not quaking in my boots about losing money I am just being practical in managing my bank.

The other point you make about whittling selections down to two and then trying to find out what went wrong when one or both didn't win is OK but I feel that the game of racing is fraught with all kinds of variables that we the public are not privy to in the run up to a race.  We have the markets as a guide, the experts as a guide and our own analysis. I accept that I am going to be misled and that I just cannot physically have the time to analyse the prospects of all the horses running in a race.  All I can do is get a feel of how a race may be run by the horses on the day and bearing in mind the best form on offer which one should win.  However, to make money on the selections one must in the long term be aware of "value" in the price that is on offer about each selection.  This is why I like to start with prices at around 3/1 minimum which indicates that a selection has a 25% chance of winning a race.  I don't even look at races where the prices are shorter (though I do consider 5/2 shots as their prices may drift during the day.  I don't try to take the horses on either where the prices are 2/1 or less, I'll let other experts try and find value at cramped odds. All this means is that if a horse is quoted at 3/1 (or better) then I will back it if I feel that it has a better than a 2/1 chance of winning (33%)

I hope this helps

NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I can’t find three reliable selections for a Trixie today.  I have made a couple of back to lay bets but they are not strong enough to put them in a Trixie.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

A bit of a damp squib yesterday 8th, 4th and 5th hence a straight loss of £20

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £260 = £2,278.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A

TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.00 Uttox (8) Camlad Kingfisher 5/2, 3.55 Thirsk (2) Rose Of Kildare 7/2 and 5.45 Chp (10) Amor Fati  4/1 = £20 stake, potential return of £672.40

No Time for reasons for selections today

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £260 = £2,278.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A

TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.20 Pont (1) Sods Law 5/2, 4.30 Pont (6)  Magical Effect 4/1, 5.40 Pont (1) Johnny Cavagin 9/2 = £20 stake with the potential return of £802.40

Quite a lot of class races today despite it being a Sunday.  A lot of non-runners have scuppered my ideas about Uttoxeter selections.  I quite liked Haul Away to win the 3.00 but I don’t back horses at 2/1 

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No Trixie yesterday

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £280 = £2,275.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A

With the back/lay of outsiders, I find it helpful to check on betfair the horse's previous in running prices over the same distance and class of race. Sometimes a pattern emerges.

I'm off to lunch now but will be back later

Hi Brian,

I did indeed enjoy a good lunch out today.

Many thanks for the info on finding the in-running prices for horses over their last six runs. It does help. One can even watch the race as well.

As you may well know, traditionally one finds a horse that usually races very prominently, back it at a higher price and then lay it off at the lower price for a nil liability and hope that it keeps going  on to win.  I like to include hold up horses too, hence your analysis will assist in this.

When it comes to prices from which to request odds and then put in a "lay" bet when matched I feel that I need at least 10 clicks to get involved.  For example if the current price is say 7.2 I would request odds of at least 9.2.  Depending on the current price of the selection I may require more.  For example if a price was 3.2 I may request a price of 4.4 = 20 clicks.  As I said before when one is anticipating a back/lay on an unfancied runner it is more difficult to predict how far it will drift.

The horse I mentioned earlier is not without merit.  It is RP Ratings top rated, napped by the Morning Star and tipped by The Mail. It is just that the all knowing market makers just don't like it. The price seems stuck between 20 - 25 mark right now.  Possibly it will stay there right up to the off. I am leaving in at 40 in case we see a spike and will check its price way before the off to see what is happening.  Possibly it could still be tradable at around the 30 mark.  I like to think that any horse that I back will at least be trying.  Hence, I like to think that in an ideal world if I get a good price then the selections should at least run to its previous price and therefore my "lay" price should get matched for a free bet.     

I am never overly concerned should my initial requestd odds not get matched even if the horse wins.  I call it "wag the dog" I don't like the markets dictating to me as to which price I should accept

FOUR DOUBLES AND A TRIXIE TODAY

Sorry to spring this on you guys; I feel I need to change my strategy after only one double for the whole of July.  I was going to start this tomorrow but having done the work and placed the bets it seems only right to put them up today.  I will keep the cumulative loss running as this is actual for me; however, it is a simple matter to adjust for it to see if the new strategy works by 31st August.  If it doesn’t work then I will have to make an in-depth review before moving on.  If anyoine can tell me how to change the from heading to reflect the above title I will appreciate it

DOUBLES:
(A)    1.50 GD (3) LIL ROCKEFELLER 4/1, 2.25 GD (14) DURSTON 11/2  £4 STAKE POSS WIN £130.00
(B)    4.20 PERTH (4) DANCING IN THE SKY 3/1, 4.55 (6) GAMELINE 11/4 £4 STAKE POSS WIN £60
(C)    4.45 GD(8) NEAROOZ 5/2, 5.35 (2) IMAGE OF THE MOON 9/2, £4 STAKE POSS WIN £77
(D)    6.05 SAN(2) RETURN TO SENDERS 5/2. 7.10 SAN (4) MURAAAD 7/2, £4 STAKE POSS WIN £63

TRIXIE:

4.45 GD (8)NEAROZ 5/2, 4.55 PERTH (6) GAMELINE 11/4, AND 7.10 SAN (4) MURAAD 7/2 = £4 STAKE WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF £419.20   

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

A second,  a non-runner and a 6th at 7/2f, therefore, nil returns

Original Bank £2,538.61 less £320 = £2,218.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A