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well done, dusty...nice work
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200 quid a day minus PC and IR expenses is a very decent wage and a great life all in. Poor stuff.
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Even better if you get 2 or 3 of they flukes up every week john
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I think the crucial point is that Willie gives very little or no regard to player ability to race read, every player has the same ability so whoever has the biggest advantage wins.
That can't be accurate though because race reading and reacting is a skill that everyone differs at. However the assumption by many home players that all at the track need to be there because they "need" the advantage is also wrong because there would obviously be very good race readers there too but take the view that they want to maximise every possible aid available. |
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so,what is race reading? laying hard pullers? laying a stayer if the pace is slow?
backing the back markers if gone to fast? laying if making mistakes? race reading is akin to doing the bleeding obvious. |
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im still trying to fathom out how race reading entitles you to lay faugheen 3 out
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if I give someone 4/5 a coin toss and they win,is it value?
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G A R R Y. Can you post your full p/l for march the 30th 2018..thank you
Oh and by the way ..was that value ![]() |
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Lifetime summaryApplies across 82,219 Exchange markets
Gross profit & loss £1,295,431.81 Commission Other charges Premium Charges Total charges (40.3%) Maximum possible premium charge £154,593.02 + £0 + £367,518.46 = £522,111.48 its in amongst that. |
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That is extremely disingenuous and cynical, you are implying that by the law of averages nothing of ability is occurring and overtime given the amount of take out by bf even a slight margin over the statistical norm of wins to losses would naturally result in ruin.
Today I won a total of 1279 and lost less than 9 pounds. By your estimation I’d be stumbling from occasional victory to calamity, which simply is not the case. |
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Hes a baw bag dusty
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cardy, poast ya pc portal
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https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/premium-charges
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mouse,if cardy had one to post it'll have been posted before now,another potless mug with nowt in his mundane life
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He's like the other mug what calls himself the greatest poaster but can't poast it even if you put the link up for him.
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dusty,lets be honest,you chucked a tenner away at a horse 4L down halfway up run in and got lucky,wd for that,losing £9 all day means you didn't get one wrong in same circumstances,wd for that also.
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I saw a horse that was over priced in relation to its chance of winning.
As I have alluded to previously, at home punters need to develop their own angle beyond the obvious as there is no low hanging fruit. To disparage the abilities of those who do it as flukes etc is just low brow. |
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was that winner the only horse you seen all day halfway up run in where you considered the price to be wrong? not one other click all day on a horse in the same circumstances? you my friend are a genius.
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I generate profit by converting value others throw away fighting to get matched, all races don’t pan out the same but there’s value in every single one, I don’t find it every race but in most I’d at least get my stake back.
I am very good, there are others who are easily as good and don’t need to triumph their wins, but to say these people can’t exist is simply way wrong. |
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I must admit I'm a value man myself, I always back value in the place markets as implied by the win market.
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For which I don't need any pictures at all, but obviously I'd welcome any improvement in the pictures that brings more liquidity.
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Willie Shafter. 01 Jan 19 20:22
race reading is akin to doing the bleeding obvious so those who win consistently from home despite the time disadvantage are merely 'doing the bleeding obvious'. Easy game obv. Oh dear ![]() |
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Jet Master * 89.39 9.30 Back 821.99 - Indubitably a shrewd and skilful bet
Jet Master * 4.75 64.56 Lay -242.15 - If there's a bet here that deserves criticism, it's THIS one; but definitely NOT the previous one. Then again, my profit on that race came to just £18.37, so who am I to tell anyone how they should have played it? |
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Until it wins the shrewd bet has no value, many shrewd bets die without trace......unless you monetise the f uckers by hedging something, hence the bit ‘deserving of criticism’.
Ofc you might argue had I been on course I’d have got all of the bet, and hedged nothing. |
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We could argue all day about whether or not greening up is the right or wrong thing to do. There are so many factors involved - as you say, you could argue that greening up is still cheaper and more convenient than attending on-course. (I don't agree, but, then again, that's what makes markets.)
But one thing's certain - backing a proven stayer like Jet Master at 88/1, when it's still in with a squeak in a 3m hurdle, is a shrewd bet. I mean, for most of the race it was actually trading a few ticks below its Betfair SP, even though it was in last place all that time. People were taking short odds about it precisely because they were anticipating it getting outpaced and staying on. The irony is that when that duly happened, that was when the price got bigger. It's as though there's two separate markets - one for the bulk of a race, and another gropup of punters just joining in for just the last two furlongs. |
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jet master,13yr old,never won a 3m race,fav 10yr old 4L clear 100yds to go has.
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^ ageist
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screaming from beneaththewaves 02 Jan 19 10:11
It's as though there's two separate markets - one for the bulk of a race, and another gropup of punters just joining in for just the last two furlongs. Feels like that to me too, and something a lot of folk seem to be missing is that what they're referring to as "race reading" should actually be referred to as "current price vs. current/possible future race conditions reading". Accurate race reading is only of any use (profit-wise) if you can trade at what you reckon are currently incorrect prices. And you don't necessarily need the horse to win/lose. You just need to nab incorrect prices for maybe a few seconds. Every day, horses trade from 25's down to 7's and vice versa in a heartbeat nowhere near the finish. The "reader's job is simply to anticipate such moves. It's all about the price. Always. |
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Absolutely correct.
Fluctuating markets contain constant opportunity, attempting to define it simply in terms of whether a horse stays on at the end or not is only part of the whole. What I believe is key is not to overindulge in stats of horses etc, but to study what the humans do in response, markets arnt reflections of the state of the race, they are reflections of people’s perceptions. Humans are flawed, non more so than gamblers, all you have to be is less flawed that the collective average. Yes screaming, though mentally I prefer to have a constant return rather than waiting for large wins. You say ‘cheaper’, I know I’d make significantly more on course and it would be a ‘good investment’, but I’m not lost to greed to such an extent that I would go to such trouble, when I can get my rod out from here and catch plenty of fish. |
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50 odd races yesterday and only £9 in losers. Chucked a tenner away at something looking the unlikely winner at the time and hit the bullseye,yet in 50 races and not one similar bet that the horse didn't shorten,utterly remarkable.
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I dont sit waiting on horses finishing hard, I adapt to the environment of each race. Im not a one trick pony andy...if this is andy.
If it is andy then you are simply showing why you packed it in, if you couldnt make it pay on course then you aint got much judgement to try and pick the bones out of my turds |
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lol dusty if andy couldnt win live with his race reading skills on track hes not got a cat in hells chance at home 1 sec plus slower and there be plenty more on track in the same boat the titanic as him ,
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blv to facetime delay please ?, at hereford thanks in advance
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blv is .5 behind facetimed pics
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at hereford
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however wolves blv is about 2 secs behind facetimed pics be careful
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hope all you in running,, lose everything.
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CAN YOU POST YOUR FULL P/L FOR 30TH MARCH 2018, THANK YOU GARRY.
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cardenden 02 Jan 19 13:15 Joined: 27 Feb 17 | Topic/replies: 9,084 | Blogger: cardenden's blog
hope all you in running,, lose everything. What a stupid comment. How can all lose yer daft c*nt. |