Indeed, and stop wasting time here defending yourself against those with little to offer the sport.

Thank you for the extra paragraphs , good work,much easier to read.

great reading dom,,

Good luck with your thread domino very interesting and detailed write ups I wish you well

The saver wins but a loss on the race, thanks to an absolutely abysmal ride on Sister Celine, what the hell was he doing !!!!

I could have come out of retirement and win on that ! Awful ride.

then

I think sometimes you have to think, well I picked the best horse in the race so selection was right at least, its just that you don't collect.Afraid there's always going be bad rides, unlucky in running races
Well done with the saver anyway.

-£81 going into final runner today and can't help but feel a bit of bad luck today.

Sister Celine denied a place at least from a poor ride and Zonderland runs a belter in 3rd, only weakening on the softened ground in the final furlong, beaten 2L, which makes me feel had the ground stayed fast and there not been a few hours of rain, then he would have likely gone very close.

Hopefully the lay will be turned over and then the loss on the day won't be too disastrous.

PJ you man ?

nice lay of kinglami landed, never looked likely ..

Friday 17th August

£1,1089.72 (£89.72 profit)

A busy morning this morning on the gallops with William Haggas working several on the Al Bahathri and John Gosden also sending a few up the Limekilns whilst it was riding fresh.

Those horses will wait for another day but on a very busy days racing I think I've found a few outside the norm.

There's just the one lay today for me today and it comes at Dundalk this evening. Aidan O'Brien's horses haven't been in the best of form lately and most returning from absences do need a run. Royal Navy Warship (5.45) makes his seasonal bow today off a lowly mark of 60 in a 6f handicap at Dundalk and whilst a horse of his pedigree should readily be able to collect in this sort of company the vibes from the yard are not encouraging. He wasn't that big a 2yo, so really it shouldn't have been weakness that saw him run poorly last season and since those days he has had a lot of problems with his knees and has been a hard horse to keep sound. His work at home is OK, he's probably galloped at best somewhere close to 75 but all his work is over 7f and 8f at home, so the return over 6f is a shade baffling. He is also parked out wide from stall 14, so his rider has two options, go forwards and risk running wide, or drop in and stay on, knowing you are on a horse that needs further. He has drifted a little from the 5/2 he was early doors, but he is a horse who may win races off his mark but over 6f, he should struggle and he does look as if he will come on for this today. I am happy to lay him for £50 at the 4.5 he currently is.

He is my only lay today, but I have got 4 bets, two I would class as very strong and another two who I feel offer some value.

Staying at Dundalk one of my more value bets comes in the 6.15. Glenmoore has a solid record over this course and distance and was in very good form in the spring, winning off 59 and placing off marks close to today's mark of 64. Having had a break after 4th over an inadequate 5f, he returned over 7f on turf at Roscommon and showed up well for a long way before getting hampered and weakening in the final furlong or so. Heavily eased his 20L defeat reads worse than it was, but he has a lb off from the run and is back off 64 today.
Partnered today by a rider who has never finished out the first four on him, he returns to his favoured Dunalk and 6f and also is well drawn in stall 4. I think there is definitely each way appeal with him today and at the 7.2 in the win market and 2.04 in the 4 place market I think he is worth £15 Win and £35 4 Place.

My other value bet today is one to take massively on trust, or shall I say, on trust he will break out the stalls on terms! Mont Kiara (5.55 Newmarket) is starting to look dangerously well handicapped off a mark of 74, and whilst he has completely fluffed his lines at the start in his last two races, it can be noted his last two wins have come at the July course, most recently off a mark of 80. Placed as well on the Rowley Mile course off 85, he has still ran a couple of respectable figures this term notably behind Wokingham 2nd Dreamfield at Ascot in May when running to 76 and then 3 runs ago at Catterick where he ran to 81 and was staying on well at the end of his racer.

He is a horse who can be very poorly away and that is obviously a risk, but a horse now 6lb lower than his last winning mark, and 11lb lower than a place effort last season, he makes some appeal and with Fran Berry a sound jockey booking, the ground being ideal and him returning to a track he likes, he is worth a small bit at big odds, as if he can bounce back to anything like his best he can make his big odds look very big indeed!

At 21.0 in the Win Market and 4.6 in the 4 horses to place market, I think he is worth £10 win and £10 4 place.


I do however have two very strong bets today, and these are horses I am happy to back for bigger stakes as I think they are very good bets indeed.

Island of Life (4.00 Newbury) is my idea of one of the best bet of the day and William Haggas' filly caught many an eye when powering home into 2nd at Ascot behind the highly regarded Procedure. Next time out she went to Wolverhampton and was made a warm order for another 5f race but having broke slowly she was always outpaced and was only getting going late, and would have won with another 50 yards. Returning to a galloping 5f with a couple of front runners and on turf she looks very well treated off 81 and she continues to work like a very well handicapped horse at home.
In form James Doyle in the saddle, this looks a far weaker race than the last two she has run in and she should have no trouble outclassing these.

At 2.58 she is good value for me and worth £40.00 win.


However my banker of the day today comes in the 6.30 at Newmarket and I can't see this out of the first four. Michael bell has some really nice 2yo's this season but none perhaps nicer than Emirates Empire. He makes his debut this evening and he has really caught the eye in recent gallops.
We saw him for the first time 3 weeks ago when he galloped 6f on the Peat Moss gallops under Jamie Spencer and he stretched right away from Allmankind who has some solid form to his name already.
Since that gallop he has twice impressed, notably last weekend when bursting away from Balladeer (runs 5.25) and Eagles BY Day (Very nice Sea The Stars colt). On Wednesday morning Tom Queally came in to gallop him over 7f with Balladeer and L'ue Deaux Trois and the response in his work was devastating as he cruised by the pair of them and sprinted away by 5/6L.
Tom Queally was really impressed by him and Michael has entered him in the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy later in the season.

He will get further in time but starting out at a mile is a positive and whilst I would like to see a good run from Balladeer in the first, this horse looks in a different postcode so I wouldn't be heavily reliant on that. I think this is a weak enough maiden by Newmarket standards with those who have run only showing form of mid 70s to 80s horses at best and the only newcomer of impressive pedigree is John Gosdens who hasn't shown enough at home to get any of the gallop watchers excited.

Emirates Empire looks like he could be very classy and has future group aspirations and the general feeling in the yard is he is very smart. Tom Queally having rode him at home already is a bonus as he will know him and the mile on rain softened ground will definitely suit him. He was a lot fancier prices this morning when I was out taking snaps so he may ease a bit later on, but I know a few lads in the yard have backed him and the feeling is, he is the nicest 2yo colt Michael Bell has. The yard sent our Lady Aria the other day to run well on debut and she had been working well, so runners first time out from the yard do not worry me too much, as they are normally straight enough.

I think he could be a very smart horse on what he has shown at home and I am happy to go in with him on debut. £30 Win @ 10.5 and £100 4 horses to be placed closer to the off which I suspect will be around the 2.30 mark, but we'll record the bet to BSP.

That completes my views today.

Advised Bets

4.00 Newbury - Island Of Life - £40 Win @ 2.58
5.45 Dundalk - Royal Navy Warship - £50 Lay @ 4.5
5.55 Newmarket - Mont Kiara - £10 Win @ 10.5 - £10 4TBP @ 4.6
6.15 Dundalk - Glenmoore - £15 Win @ 7.2 - £35 4TBP @ 2.04
6.30 Newmarket - Emirates Empire - £30 Win @ 10.5 - £100 4TBP @ BSP

Total Staked: £415.00

All The Best

gl dom

Another good read, GL with the nap.

up

Unlucky there domino looked to have got up late but cruelly denied

:'( yup

Looked one paced for ages, looked beat and then mows down the leader late.

Was watching on betfair and looked beat, seemed to go from like 10 to 1.01 in the space of 2 seconds.

Difficult old game this dom, even with your obvious racing knowledge, in depth analysis, stable information, gallop information it all means very little on the day, it's just guess work. The Gosden horse that as shown very little at home and not impressed gallop watchers hoses up and looks a real prospect. Admiration for you putting your thread up, better man than me gungadin. GL.

But he is the gallop watcher!!

Doh!!