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A bit of fun, but for the rest of the flat season I'm gonna run a daily bet and lay thread, on what I think is good value bets and lays.
Bank Starting Value will be £1000.00
Wednesday 15th August
5 meetings today and the feature meeting is Salisbury with a competitive listed race. The feature race of the day features the first of my two lays today. Crystal Hope was a bit of a surprise winner when she won at Sandown in pleasing style running to a figure of 91. On that occasion she beat a pair of fair fillies in Highgarden and Give And Take. The form to the naked eye may look solid, but that race was on easy ground and Give And Take who was second that day didn't really appreciate the ground so beating William Haggas' filly 3L may appear flattering. A winner of the Musidora at York, Give And Take has since struggled back with ease in the ground in better races running figures in the mid to high nineties. Highgarden who was 3rd has been highly tried since and has not disgraced herself in listed company but has also come up short. Like Give And Take she looks a mid to high nineties filly. Neither filly ran anywhere near that level at Sandown and both conceded 6lb to the winner Crystal Hope. I think anyone judging Crystal Hope as a 3L better horse, than both Highgarden and Give And Take are doing so foolishly, but she still looks a solid 90 horse.
When she ran at Newbury she was made a warm order against Sea Of Class who had run 2nd in a Newmarket maiden and Athena who represented Aidan O'Brien's yard, but had proven hard to win with at that stage in her career and she was very much a 5 times raced maiden who had never run to higher than 85 coming into that race. Now the subsequent progression of both Sea Of Class and Athena can't be ignored, but it would be foolhardy to suggest that either ran to their subsequent levels of ability that day at Newbury. The figures suggest on this occasion that Sea Of Class ran to 103 and Athena 100, which again rated Crystal Hope 91, a figure she ran on debut. This is the most accurate likeliness of the race, and whilst Sea Of Class has improved to become an Irish Oaks filly, Athena has remained a nice filly but her win in a group 1 in America is hard to ascertain what she actually achieved and has been beaten since. I have Athena a 109 rated now on figures, 4lb below her official mark, but Sea Of Class is obviously higher being that she is a classic winner.
I think it is dangerous to get carried away with the well beaten 3rd Crystal Hope and what it may imply she has achieved. She has achieved two figures of 91 this season, and regardless to what those who have finished around her since, they have proven their improvement, whilst hers is only possible improvement.
Since that Newbury run she has had a couple of small problems, mainly with a knee infection, but her work at home has not been that of a group filly in waiting. Regular work companion Sharp Practice has been on the whole disappointing and on the 4th August, the Queens filly galloped comfortably better than Crystal Hope in an 8f gallop.
Crystal Hope also takes a massive step up in class here, officially rated 92, one could say she was fairly treated or accurately treated to go into a valuable fillies handicap, where her mark if capable of improvement would make her a strong challenger but instead she finds herself running in a competitive listed race against a number of more proven types.
Another concern for me would be her liking for ease in the ground, and for all the ground isn't fast at Salisbury, it is good ground and drying, which is a slight negative.
Her homework, absence and basically her inexperience are other negative factors and I think she is very poorly positioned in the market.
Promising Run is a proven Group race performer and should appreciate this trip, especially with the front running Chain Of Daisies likely to give her a tow into the race as well. Chain Of Daisies has to be respected, winning this in 2016, she should get the run of the race here today with little competition for the lead and she is the top rated in this by some way and with her penalty for winning a listed race now expired, this looks a good opening.
Pleasant Surprise, Mia Tesoro and Billsden Bless have all achieved far greater figures than the Stoute filly and for all they have to give her weight due to her 3yo allowance, she is already more than 8lb inferior to these on figures.
Savaanah is another who could have her measure, rated the same, she is more experienced and has been running solidly to her mark in handicaps. For me her and Savaanah have a very similar level of ability on what they have achieved and the difference in price is stupid, the fact Crystal Hope is 100/30 and Savaanah is 8/1 suggests to me the Stoute filly is very under priced.
At 4.8 I can't lay her too big, but I think there is plenty to take her on with and she has to improve more than any horse in the race to win and with that in mind the price is all wrong. I actually think whilst she may run okay, her work at home is a big worry and the drying ground also.
I like Promising Run who will benefit from the strong pace and drops in class here. She handles the ground and has been crying out for 10f. She has the best back class in the race and for me is the most likely winner of the race, unless the Candy filly gets a soft lead and can bounce back to the form she was showing 12-18 months ago.
No matter how you view the race Crystal Hope has to be a lay, and I am laying her for £50 in the win market @ 4.8, and I am also laying her in the 2 horses to be placed market at 2.66 for £50. I also feel I can't let Promising Run, run loose and I will be backing her to win for £10 @ 4.8.
This is my main race view of the day, but there are a couple of other things of interest today.
Jacbequick (3.00 Beverley) is a course specialist but he definitely prefers 8-10f than the 7f he is over today and whilst he won well in the end at Redcar last time, he was all out and needed every inch of the 10f. His form has also regressed ratings wise throughout the last few months and for me whilst he is in an average claimer today, Don'tgiveuponbob, Justice Pleasing and Jack Nevison are all possibles to have too much speed for him. Even former stablemate Major Crispies is not without a chance. At 2.62 I would be happy to lay him for £25.00 as it's not a strong enough race to go full lay, but I feel he is vulnerable over this trip and may find one has too much toe for him.
Betting wise today is tricky, but I am having a couple of small bets.
Our Little Pony (5.00 Beverley) will be suited to this stiffer track today and having won well two runs back she ran a solid race in a far stronger race than this last time. Her 7lb claimer gets on well with her and there is a lot of pace in this race which will suit this filly down to the ground. At 3.65 in the win market and 1.57 in the place market, I am happy to have a small £20 Win and £45 Place as cover.
The better of my two bets today comes from Gowran Park. Running in the 6.40, Dermot Weld's Espoir D'Soleil has been running well but this drop in class will definitely suit. Things didn't really go to plan behind the well handicapped at the time Lucius Tiberius when down the field on her latest start but the same problem has been found in her last two races and that is steadily run races. She gets outpaced and then runs on. The application of a Visor will definitely help in that regard and should sharpen her up early, whilst Gowran's galloping track will suit better than the tight turns of Leopardstown. Having run to 90 at the Curragh on her seasonal bow, she is definitely well treated off 85 still and I think the Visor, return to a galloping track, some ease in the ground and a drop in class are all positive factors today. The Weld horses are also in good form and this filly who's last three runs have come in 0-105, 0-100 and 0-105 company can take advantage of a massive drop in class into 0-85 company here against horses who all have to improve, to prove they are better than this grade, whilst she has already proven herself at a higher level both earlier this season and also last season when she placed behind the classy Pincheck and also Mustajeer in valuable Naas handicaps running to 89 and 90 respectively. I think she is worth £25 Win @ 4.0 and £100 in the four horses to place at 1.40.
Those complete my bets for today and good luck if you play.
Bank Starting Value will be £1000.00
Wednesday 15th August
5 meetings today and the feature meeting is Salisbury with a competitive listed race. The feature race of the day features the first of my two lays today. Crystal Hope was a bit of a surprise winner when she won at Sandown in pleasing style running to a figure of 91. On that occasion she beat a pair of fair fillies in Highgarden and Give And Take. The form to the naked eye may look solid, but that race was on easy ground and Give And Take who was second that day didn't really appreciate the ground so beating William Haggas' filly 3L may appear flattering. A winner of the Musidora at York, Give And Take has since struggled back with ease in the ground in better races running figures in the mid to high nineties. Highgarden who was 3rd has been highly tried since and has not disgraced herself in listed company but has also come up short. Like Give And Take she looks a mid to high nineties filly. Neither filly ran anywhere near that level at Sandown and both conceded 6lb to the winner Crystal Hope. I think anyone judging Crystal Hope as a 3L better horse, than both Highgarden and Give And Take are doing so foolishly, but she still looks a solid 90 horse.
When she ran at Newbury she was made a warm order against Sea Of Class who had run 2nd in a Newmarket maiden and Athena who represented Aidan O'Brien's yard, but had proven hard to win with at that stage in her career and she was very much a 5 times raced maiden who had never run to higher than 85 coming into that race. Now the subsequent progression of both Sea Of Class and Athena can't be ignored, but it would be foolhardy to suggest that either ran to their subsequent levels of ability that day at Newbury. The figures suggest on this occasion that Sea Of Class ran to 103 and Athena 100, which again rated Crystal Hope 91, a figure she ran on debut. This is the most accurate likeliness of the race, and whilst Sea Of Class has improved to become an Irish Oaks filly, Athena has remained a nice filly but her win in a group 1 in America is hard to ascertain what she actually achieved and has been beaten since. I have Athena a 109 rated now on figures, 4lb below her official mark, but Sea Of Class is obviously higher being that she is a classic winner.
I think it is dangerous to get carried away with the well beaten 3rd Crystal Hope and what it may imply she has achieved. She has achieved two figures of 91 this season, and regardless to what those who have finished around her since, they have proven their improvement, whilst hers is only possible improvement.
Since that Newbury run she has had a couple of small problems, mainly with a knee infection, but her work at home has not been that of a group filly in waiting. Regular work companion Sharp Practice has been on the whole disappointing and on the 4th August, the Queens filly galloped comfortably better than Crystal Hope in an 8f gallop.
Crystal Hope also takes a massive step up in class here, officially rated 92, one could say she was fairly treated or accurately treated to go into a valuable fillies handicap, where her mark if capable of improvement would make her a strong challenger but instead she finds herself running in a competitive listed race against a number of more proven types.
Another concern for me would be her liking for ease in the ground, and for all the ground isn't fast at Salisbury, it is good ground and drying, which is a slight negative.
Her homework, absence and basically her inexperience are other negative factors and I think she is very poorly positioned in the market.
Promising Run is a proven Group race performer and should appreciate this trip, especially with the front running Chain Of Daisies likely to give her a tow into the race as well. Chain Of Daisies has to be respected, winning this in 2016, she should get the run of the race here today with little competition for the lead and she is the top rated in this by some way and with her penalty for winning a listed race now expired, this looks a good opening.
Pleasant Surprise, Mia Tesoro and Billsden Bless have all achieved far greater figures than the Stoute filly and for all they have to give her weight due to her 3yo allowance, she is already more than 8lb inferior to these on figures.
Savaanah is another who could have her measure, rated the same, she is more experienced and has been running solidly to her mark in handicaps. For me her and Savaanah have a very similar level of ability on what they have achieved and the difference in price is stupid, the fact Crystal Hope is 100/30 and Savaanah is 8/1 suggests to me the Stoute filly is very under priced.
At 4.8 I can't lay her too big, but I think there is plenty to take her on with and she has to improve more than any horse in the race to win and with that in mind the price is all wrong. I actually think whilst she may run okay, her work at home is a big worry and the drying ground also.
I like Promising Run who will benefit from the strong pace and drops in class here. She handles the ground and has been crying out for 10f. She has the best back class in the race and for me is the most likely winner of the race, unless the Candy filly gets a soft lead and can bounce back to the form she was showing 12-18 months ago.
No matter how you view the race Crystal Hope has to be a lay, and I am laying her for £50 in the win market @ 4.8, and I am also laying her in the 2 horses to be placed market at 2.66 for £50. I also feel I can't let Promising Run, run loose and I will be backing her to win for £10 @ 4.8.
This is my main race view of the day, but there are a couple of other things of interest today.
Jacbequick (3.00 Beverley) is a course specialist but he definitely prefers 8-10f than the 7f he is over today and whilst he won well in the end at Redcar last time, he was all out and needed every inch of the 10f. His form has also regressed ratings wise throughout the last few months and for me whilst he is in an average claimer today, Don'tgiveuponbob, Justice Pleasing and Jack Nevison are all possibles to have too much speed for him. Even former stablemate Major Crispies is not without a chance. At 2.62 I would be happy to lay him for £25.00 as it's not a strong enough race to go full lay, but I feel he is vulnerable over this trip and may find one has too much toe for him.
Betting wise today is tricky, but I am having a couple of small bets.
Our Little Pony (5.00 Beverley) will be suited to this stiffer track today and having won well two runs back she ran a solid race in a far stronger race than this last time. Her 7lb claimer gets on well with her and there is a lot of pace in this race which will suit this filly down to the ground. At 3.65 in the win market and 1.57 in the place market, I am happy to have a small £20 Win and £45 Place as cover.
The better of my two bets today comes from Gowran Park. Running in the 6.40, Dermot Weld's Espoir D'Soleil has been running well but this drop in class will definitely suit. Things didn't really go to plan behind the well handicapped at the time Lucius Tiberius when down the field on her latest start but the same problem has been found in her last two races and that is steadily run races. She gets outpaced and then runs on. The application of a Visor will definitely help in that regard and should sharpen her up early, whilst Gowran's galloping track will suit better than the tight turns of Leopardstown. Having run to 90 at the Curragh on her seasonal bow, she is definitely well treated off 85 still and I think the Visor, return to a galloping track, some ease in the ground and a drop in class are all positive factors today. The Weld horses are also in good form and this filly who's last three runs have come in 0-105, 0-100 and 0-105 company can take advantage of a massive drop in class into 0-85 company here against horses who all have to improve, to prove they are better than this grade, whilst she has already proven herself at a higher level both earlier this season and also last season when she placed behind the classy Pincheck and also Mustajeer in valuable Naas handicaps running to 89 and 90 respectively. I think she is worth £25 Win @ 4.0 and £100 in the four horses to place at 1.40.
Those complete my bets for today and good luck if you play.
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Best of luck, try to stay level headed and answer with humour rather than anger, humour leaves the aggressor in doubt, anger just makes them shout
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I wish you Good Luck
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Wish you luck but do we really need War and Peace with every selection. Will be following with interest.
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Good Luck.
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Yeah, better imo when the bets at listed at the top clearly in bold type, with the write up underneath.
Good luck btw. |
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No chance of catching that once it got the lead.
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Jacbequick,easy peasey!
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anyone see what price it went? was makin a brew
ul dom |
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ahh...i see it lead
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No worries, the bets advised are in bold, for anyone who doesn't want to read the reasoning.
Not a great start with Jacbequick winning and a £40.50 loss. He was just too good for an average field, although the rider on the second needs to be asked why he sat 9L off the pace in a slowly run race and only really asked it for an effort inside the final 1.5f and finished strongly into second. Ridden more handily, he may have made a race of it. |
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best of luck , good reasoning on bets
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Spot on. WD.
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Your opening post contains more words than I have posted in total in 11 years
 Can you summarize the bet & lay thanks |
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@Differentgravy
I put the selections and bets in Bold, so anyone not wishing to read the reasoning can see the advice simply enough. Kind Regards. |
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Well done domino
Looking forward to seeing Crystal Hope over 12f with juice in the ground. |
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Good call re.Crystal Hope.
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Good luck Domino, looking forward to your posts, and I for one like it that you put the reasoning behind the choices
Don't react to the haters, rise above it |
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yeah,takes some reading but rather have the reasoning than not have it.
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you da man dom
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Well done Domino.
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our little pony
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Opening Balance: £1000
Jacbequick - £40.50 Crystal Hope / Promising Run : +£85.50 Our Little Pony : + £74.72 Espoir D'Soleil : + £13.00 Total: £1,132.72 (+£132.72) Back tomorrow. |
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wd domino
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Thanks Cork.
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Good day, wd.
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domino, more impressive than the profit was your refusal to bite when the bait was set earlier, keep it like that, all civil and pre-race, and I am sure it will grow into a successful thread in no time
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Excellent read!
Good Luck, always!  |
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Well Done, Good read
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WD today Domino, a different concept to my lay threads of late, but good luck.
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Well done Domino, nice thread.
Would you be able to use more paragraphs as difficult to read. Thanks |
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Opening Balance: £1,132.72 (+£132.72)
Thursday 16th August A pleasing start to proceedings yesterday with a profit which always helps. In hindsight Jacbequick's lack of opposition left us open there, but the race was piratically gifted to him as well. Crystal Hope ran poorly. even worse than I suspected she would, but her home form and need of a slower surface showed and she wasn't suited by what became a tactical race. Hopefully her sights will be lowered next time, as she would appeal in a handicap with give in the ground. Our Little Pony benefited from a clever ride to win whilst the Weld horse shaped to me as if it now needs 12f, but could still be off a decent mark. There are 7 meetings today, with 5 in the UK and 2 in Ireland, and we have a few points of interest. One of my main bets today comes in the 3.20 at Wolverhampton and I like the look of Roger Charlton's Sister Celine, the daughter of Al Kazeem is out of a Sadlers Wells mare and the pedigree just screams stamina to me with this lightly raced runner a half sister to a 80+ rated handicapper who was successful over middle distances. Sister Celine started the season off what looked a fair mark of 58 after 3 fair runs in maidens/novice contests last year, but on handicap debut she was extremely weak in the betting and only managed a 4th placing in an apprentice handicap. That however was over a mile and for all the race didn't work out she was hard ridden throughout and always outpaced. Stepped up in trip to an extended 11f at Windsor on her next start, off a mark of 57 Sister Celine ran a perfectly fine race, staying on in the closing stages to press Cross My Mind to within 1/2L. The form of that race is relatively solid with the winner going in again off 68 since and they were nicely clear of a horse who has subsequently gone down narrowly in a similar grade at Newmarket. On the basis of that performance the handicapper raised her to 61, with connections opting for a slight step up in trip to 12f when running in a 0-70 at Doncaster. Despite fast ground, the race was run at an absolute crawl and ridden by James Doyle she raced keenly enough behind the leaders. The race turned into a bit of a 3f speed contest and for all this did make her move early, she was done for a turn of foot in the final furlong and weakened into 3rd close home, finishing 1.5L off the winner. She posted a figure of 64 on this occasion, 2lb less than she achieved at Windsor and I thought she looked like a longer trip and more honest pace would suit. Although the two in front of her have not raced since, the horse in 5th has since run 2nd and the last horse home won next time out giving the race a solid feel. Today Sister Celine makes a further step up in trip, running just shy of 14f on a galloping Wolverhampton surface, where you normally get an honest pace. This will suit her. I am not against the application of cheek pieces if it helps focuses her (something which looked a potential issue early on at Windsor) and I am encouraged to see connections dropping her in class to a 0-60 where she runs 1lb above grade. This is good placing by her trainer. The majority of her rivals look limited and I am surprised to see Ed Dunlop's Cue's Folly closest to her in the betting market. Well held on handicap debut last time off a mark of 51 in a 0-60, she was always outpaced over 2m and made late progress. I fail to see how the drop in trip will suit her. The majority of her other rivals look somewhat exposed and whilst winning off 53 and 58, Dorian Gray off a mark of 60 has struggled since, and has nothing in the way it runs to suggest this longer trip is what's needed. The biggest danger may well come from Hot Off The Press. 2nd in a similar race to this over 11.5f at Windsor, she was given a solid ride by Jamie Spencer and shaped as if a step up in trip was needed. 6th on her latest start, the winner Alexanderthegreat has since franked the form with an impressive win at Newbury and should have gone in the other day at Chelsmford. The 3rd has also won since and the 2nd holds many entries later in the week for Sir Mark Prescott and looks a well treated type. Hot off The Press didn't get the most of charmed runs through last time and there may be more to come from her now stepping up in trip. For me this is a race where I want to be on Sister Celine who I believe to be a well handicapped horse and I am happy to stake £40 Win @ 3.0 on her in the win market. I do respect the Bell horse and I am going to place a £10 Win saver on Hot Off The Press @ 6.4 as well, both of these prices currently available. Sister Celine is also 1.78 in the 2 horses to place market and I can only see her 2nd at Worse, So I am going to place £60 on her in the two horses to place market at 1.78. That is my strongest bet of the day but there is a horse running today that could offer some value. The 4.10 at Salisbury is easily the strongest race of the day, quality wise but for all the Johnston horse Elarqam has a respectable chance, he is starting to look like a horse with no trip and with the Johnston horses always very erratic you never quite know what Elarqam will turn up. Plumatic is an intriguing runner from France, who stepped up previous form over longer trips with a comfortable win at Chantilly in a fair time. The figure was only 105, so more is needed but this horse can't be written off at this level. You know Oh This Is Us will give it's running, but whilst effective in handicaps and listed company, he is often found wanting in group company. The one I like is a horse a bit taken on trust and that is Clive Cox's Zonderland. Like Chain Of Daisies who won the feature here yesterday, Zonderland won this in 2016 having previously run 6th in the 2000 Guineas and won a Heron Stakes. Since that win here in 2016, he has been plagued with problems but his 2nd to Lightning Spear in the Celebration Mile would pick these up and carry them. Only campaigned on fast ground, he has been an absentee at the highest table on many occasions and by the time he returned in the Celebration Mile again last season, it was again his old adversary Lightning Spear who denied him by the narrowest of margins. A non runner then in a Group 2 at Newmarket, he was far from disgraced in Group 1 company when 8th to Persuasive in a Strong QEII, which featured the likes of Ribchester, Churchill, Nathra, Sea Of Grace, Lightning Spear and Beat The Bank who would all be a short price if lining up in this contest. Since those efforts Zonderland has disappointed this season in group 1 company, notably when very keen in the Lockinge, on ground which had, had late rainfall which made it a bit dead and that may have not suited him. With better expected at Ascot in the Queen Anne, you can't help but feel disappointed that Clive Cox's runner only beat one, but a wash with sweat pre race, he was keen to post and edgy at the start before pulling hard early and once he was hampered inside the last 300 metres, his rider eased him off. Now I am not going to make too many excuses for two very substandard runs this season which leave questions to be answered, but there were some reasons as mentioned above which would have been factors in a poor run, and the yards horses were also not really firing in the spring. In much stronger form now, the Cox horses are running very well and Zonderland would probably be one of the best horses in the yard. Had this horse lost it's ability I'm sure a trainer like Cox would have retired him, but returning to group 3 company today he takes a marked drop in class, and is unpenalised for doing so with his group three winning penalty now expired. He also has the fast ground he needs today, with ground good yesterday and drying winds throughout, the forecast rain wont hit the course until this evening enabling him to run on the ground he needs. He has also previously shown himself to handle the track, a question that Elarqam needs to answer and with Zonderland never out of the first 4 when running in races with 6 runners of less (form of 141122) it's a fair argument to suggest this horse may be best suited to small fields. This Dutch Art colt already has booked himself a stallion job at Cheveley Park Stud, so if he was a fading light in the mile division there would be no need to run him, so it leads me to think that Clive Cox may still have faith in the horse. He is in my opinion the best horse in the race on back class and even with 2 poor efforts this season, his form from last season would still be far too good for these. With Elarqam and Hathal likely to do battle for the lead, and Oh This Is Us and the French raider Plumatic normally ridden close to the pace, it looks sure that there will be a decent gallop and that will really suit Zonderland who can race freely and he likes to be held up off a strong pace. For me the race could be set up to suit him and if there are any chinks in the armour of Elarqam, I suspect this fella can expose them. A proven Group 1/ Group 2 horse, who is 3rd in on official ratings and has actually produced some of the best figures in this race within 18 months should never be written off and the 11.0 on here this morning looks a huge overreaction. Sadly no 3 place market denies us an approach I would have liked to have taken but I do think he is worth £10 Win @ 11.0 and £25 Place @ 3.75. Small stakes but they could certainly be rewarding and not much damage if the horse is past his best. It looked a tough day lays wise, but whilst risky laying a horse who loves a certain course, I feel that Kinglami is very opposable in the 7.10 at Chepstow. A winner off 71 two runs back, he is only up a pound for that win, and he did go close over course and distance last week. Narrowly denied in that race by 1/2L, he had a 7lb claimer on board who done nothing wrong, so in effect, it's hard to see any advantage in replacing the 7lb claimer with a more experienced 3lb claimer and therefore having the horse carry 4lb more weight. Many will feel the better rider in terms of experience adds more to the horses chance, but I only agree with that if there is anything negative to note in the ride it was given by a lesser experienced rider last time, and in the case of Mark Crehan who rode him last time, I can find no faults in the ride, so I effectively now treat today's run as racing off a 4lb higher mark than when failing to win last week. Just in behind him that day was Whitecrest. He was a length and a half behind but was coming with a strong run when getting badly hampered around 150 yards out. Unlike Crehan, the 7lb claimer on this horse looked pretty weak and failed to keep the horse running straight and his inexperienced showed. Now today he is replaced also by a 3lb claimer, but for me this is not a negative and Jason Watson who has been catching many an eye this season is a positive jockey booking and effectively he meets Kinglami on the same terms as he did last week. I feel with stronger handling and a clearer run last time, he would have gone very close to winning, so under Watson, I rate him a big player in the race. Major Assault also ran in the race under an inexperienced apprentice as well and he was given a hopeless task from a long way off the pace, and was staying on at the end but never had any chance of getting involved, he runs off 1lb lower tonight and the booking of SDS has to be a major boost, he could well be capable of going close. Charleston Belle is a 6f winner who didn't stay 7f last time, so a return to 6f will suit, whilst Indian Affair has been hinting for a while that a return to winning ways may not be far off and having won last off 71 and placed off 73, today's mark of 58 with the talented Finley Marsh claiming 5lb certainly leaves the door open for a big run. With four solid rivals to the lay selection, we can also consider a Tony Carroll handicap debutante as a possible runner for us, whilst only Rebel Heart and Just An Idea look out of their depth, but each actually have some form which would give them a chance on paper. Now Kinglami may not be the safest conveyance of lays about given he is in form, effective off this mark, likes the track and over his trip, but these horses in these grades seem to take it in turns winning and he had his turn 2 runs ago. That may sound daft, but on his latest run, he is no given to confirm the form and there is solid reasoning to say one of them can turn it around, or perhaps one of the well handicapped on old form types in the race. With this in mind at 4.4 in the win market I am happy to take on Kinglami for £40, with a liability of £136. This completes my views for today. Advised Bets 3.20 Wolverhampton Sister Celine - £40 Win @ 3.0, £60 2TBP @ 1.78 Hot Off The Press - £10 Win @ 6.6 4.10 Salisbury Zonderland - £10 Win @ 11.0, £25 Place @ 3.75 7.10 Chepstow Kinglami (Lay) - Lay for £40 @ 4.4 All the Best |
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Excellent write-up!
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Nice work domino, hope your efforts are rewarded.
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Dom,
If Zonderland didn't like the ground in the Lockinge, he certainly won't like it today. It's chucking it down here (Swindon) and the going at Salisbury has already been changed to good to soft, with another two to three hours of rain to come. |
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Thanks for that The Anorak. If the ground is like that, I suspect Clive Cox will pull him out, like he has many times on soft ground. Not much I can do with my bets now as they are on and wouldn't want to trade out at any loss. Only small stakes but I'll take my chance, but if was soft I doubt Clive will run him.
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Dom
I don't post very often on here (very occasionally on the AIS threads) but excellent read and analysis in your daily diary. Over the past few months your other posts have also given an informative insight into the racing scene. Wishing you every success |
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Takes a bit of getting through but it's worth reading. Obviously put the time and effort in so thanks.
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Can't fault your effort Dom, hope you
Can achieve a steady profit. |