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08 Aug 18
15:49
Joined:
Date Joined:
13 Jun 12
are they not worth taking on?
seem to recall a few getting turned over recently
a cheeky lay on this one in the 3.50 ponte
seem to recall a few getting turned over recently
a cheeky lay on this one in the 3.50 ponte
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People will say lay them, but the question is why do so many of them get beat?
Haggas odds on down. Its like finding money on the road
People keep backing them at the wrong prices it seems.
Going off these prices purely on the connections they have 
I have stood for Prabeni a couple of times this season but fortunately tonight I finally got round to opposing him. The horse is a one-paced dog. It was laughable how the clowns on RUK were bigging up Moore's ride on Sextant when he beat Prabeni and one of the slowest horses in the Gosden yard. Sextant probably had about two stone in hand.
38.42 winner with jockey not looking like he wanted it to win.
Tudhope was utterly hopeless, just assumed it was a given he would win.
feckin what was Tudhope doing exactly in that finish...???
Only bothered trying once it was obvious he wouldn't catch the other one?
Maybe so, but still doesn't excuse Tud 'effort' on that 1/4 shot
That final couple of furlongs was odd to say the least from Tudhope. Only got stuck in when it was too late.
I had no bet.
I had no bet.
Don't think it was dodgy, more over-confidence, which is infuriating for punters.
Guessing he won't ride so 'oddly' next time he's on an O'Meara gamble for example...odd that.
At least winning jock had an excuse that he was in front.
I backed 1.3 happy to get out at 1.24 never thought he looked happy
does 'getting stuck in' necessarliy make the horse go faster?
we don't know, we've never ridden a racehorse.
we don't know, we've never ridden a racehorse.
It seemed to pick up again and close when he went for it, so yes IMO
I'm sure I've seen Tud go for his whip like crazy to get a horse home at other times, so why not there?
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
stu, may have been instructed by trainer not to go hard on the horse, remember they are not arsed they are not backing them
Maybe just got overconfident when he should have tried to kick ahead further out, but not good either way.
TBF his final ride out in the finish wasn't too bad, just that he sat back too long earlier in trying to gain an edge over the other horse, prob thinking he would win easy.
oh well, like you say, they don't give a stuff about the 1/4 backers losing dosh for sure - I had some of it, but it wasn't my biggest winner in the field either.
Tudhope is a first class tw@t end of. That was absolutely pathetic. He used the whip enough but not how it should be used. He never got after the horse with any strength at all and made the effort all too late. Ferkin useless and it happens regularly with him.
TheFear
TheFear 18 Sep 18 17:11 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 11,460 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
Rat faced jockeys..... How could you omit Ronald's daddy............ Shane Kelly??
TheFear 18 Sep 18 17:11 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 11,460 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
Rat faced jockeys..... How could you omit Ronald's daddy............ Shane Kelly??
Haggas had another odds on loser over in France today.
Its become farsical. Some bright spark will say lay them instead of asking why this isn't being looked into.
strange as up till last year you wouldn't be asking the question.
surely the market is as efficient on heavy ground
this year last year chalk and cheese with haggas.
last year 31% in favour of the blind backer
this year 32% in favour of the blind layer
last year 31% in favour of the blind backer
this year 32% in favour of the blind layer
sorry fred if the market is then the results are too
actually the return for the layer this year on the Haggas odds on is around 44%
Striding do you have any stats on 2yo favs carrying 6lbs + in these events as they seam to get beat so many times 2 already today
No Kev for some reason these pens aren't working in nvc races in my DB.
I might get onto that cheers.
I might get onto that cheers.
Thanks striding I like to keep you busy 
let me know your findings I think these were only introduce last couple of years to make things fairer but they seam to be to much for many of these favs 
let me know your findings I think these were only introduce last couple of years to make things fairer but they seam to be to much for many of these favs
I just ran the following...
on the shorties favs (evs or less on BFSP) top weights carrying 6 to 14lbs higher than the race average in nvc races
obvs early days but nothing significant.
on the shorties favs (evs or less on BFSP) top weights carrying 6 to 14lbs higher than the race average in nvc races
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Place% | Race% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Lay(BF) | ROI(L) | Plc(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | ROI(BF Plc) | AvgOddBF | BF A/E | BF chi | BFExpWins | AvgWinOdd |
| 64 | 42 | 65.63 | -0.65 | 93.75 | 65.63 | -1.02 | 0.39 | 0.61 | -2.67 | -7.07 | 59 | 93.65 | 3.66 | 5.8 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 0.03 | 41.35 | 1.51 |
obvs early days but nothing significant.
Thanks for that striding much appreciated yes early days but worth keeping a check on cheers
mark johnston 9/10
Haggas was 2/3 before today
Haggas actually been showing slight profits in the place market with his shorties overall (including this year) so I'd reckon this year is no more than just one of them random anomalies.
Haggas was 2/3 before today
Haggas actually been showing slight profits in the place market with his shorties overall (including this year) so I'd reckon this year is no more than just one of them random anomalies.
ie this year lots of crossbar efforts for Haggas.
Haggis just had a winner bolts up after the odds on flop the race before
Another one that was odds on all day bites the dust after a drift in the betting.
He's had a odds on winner today. Maybe he's being watched.
Interesting runner fastest maiden at chelmsford this season,thought it would go off 1/5.
Considering postion it was in was probably 5ls better than that run..
Won despite Jones riding it ferkerd one up the other day of haggas.
And another one bites the dust, unreal how many odds on losers he has.
this year you are right EMR last year was completely the opposite
this looks pretty bomb proof form wise(albeit not at the track)
Prior to today Haggas odds on shots at Southwell were:
6/9 66.67% £0.64 to sp nowt in it either way
6/9 66.67% £0.64 to sp nowt in it either way
Haggas odds-on (SP) 2019 (before today): 39-52 (75%) roi @ Bfsp +19
There are trainers who have left the game due to lack of owners who would train at least the same amount of winners as Haggas or Balding if they had the same horses to train.
Since 2008 Haggas has a strike rate of 62.53% with odds on shots from 799 attempts and shows a profit with a small ROI of 1.37%, he has 13/21 in 2026, after todays loser but is still in front at Bfsp (just). Lay them and you would be losing 4.12%
Jul 3, 2026 -- 6:56PM, Tiger Tiger wrote:
Since 2008 Haggas has a strike rate of 62.53% with odds on shots from 799 attempts and shows a profit with a small ROI of 1.37%, he has 13/21 in 2026, after todays loser but is still in front at Bfsp (just). Lay them and you would be losing 4.12%
thanks Tiger Tiger I knew someone would be able to find this information
I stand corrected said the man in the orthopedic shoes
I thought marquand accepted it very soon , his limitations were shown too , not stromg to organise beast , if young fallon was on it id say it would have won , he is far stronger than marquand and more self aware regarding positioning
Marquand has done some strange rides recently ,his positioning and non lack of effort has come to fore recently on that sabre horse and binharareer in wokingham , both too little too late
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