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StillLearning
08 Aug 18 15:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Jun 12
| Topic/replies: 9,689 | Blogger: StillLearning's blog
are they not worth taking on?

seem to recall a few getting turned over recently

a cheeky lay on this one in the 3.50 ponte
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Report MJK August 8, 2018 4:40 PM BST

Aug 8, 2018 -- 4:33PM, domino14 wrote:


I bet the horse that bombed out today but it's worth noting that it's impressive win the other day came on a flat track with a long straight and on easy ground, a track he also ran very well at first time back this season. I don't think the faster ground or demands of Ponte suited the horse at all. He's looked quirky in his races and likes to travel into the race, he couldn't do that today and I believe the horse sulked. He's a horse that would only interest me in future with ease in the ground and on a track with a nice long straight where he can run a waiting race, without needing to chase. I'm not convinced the horse is that genuine.


Doesn't Newmarket have a climb to the finish?

Report domino14 August 8, 2018 4:42 PM BST
@Kenny

Don't doubt he was expected to win, having won so impressively last time and looking progressive and he was subject to rave reviews at home, but he was disappointing on his second start this season and he does look one of those that doesn't back up quickly, has quirks and might be best caught with ease in the ground after a break.
Report domino14 August 8, 2018 4:43 PM BST
@MJK

The July course is a pretty steady climb, it's not really demanding at all, as you free wheel downhill to around the 2f marker so horses travel into races there, it's also why horses are hard to pass on from the front, as horses don't normally stop up it. Pontefract very different, as you are always climbing, have to climb around a bend as well and the final 2f is very stiff.
Report kenny mann August 8, 2018 4:47 PM BST
ok thanks domino
Report MJK August 8, 2018 5:01 PM BST
Cheers D
Report Deltâ August 8, 2018 5:14 PM BST
not sure there was much easy last week

Friday
03 August    Friday
03 August at 16:40    Good to Firm    7.2 on 03-08-2018 at 07:00
Report Deltâ August 8, 2018 5:16 PM BST
not backing up, seems a stronger indicator


Following the race, the representative of William Haggas reported that REVEREND JACOBS, which started favourite and finished fifth of six, ran flat having raced 5 days previously.
Report domino14 August 8, 2018 5:24 PM BST
@Delta

I know they say Good-Firm but I'm pretty sure there was thunderstorms and rained most of the evening ?
Report Deltâ August 8, 2018 5:36 PM BST
there were some thunderstorms, possibly after his race?, all the crowd were out on his replay - later they were in the bars


win was new course record so must have been g/f (ish)
Report DenzilPenberthy August 14, 2018 5:12 PM BST
Shocked
Report doorman99 August 14, 2018 6:56 PM BST
And another down, Alexana, lol.
Report Early Morning Riser August 14, 2018 7:04 PM BST
Haggas along with Varian are deadly for the backers with their odds on runners.
Report StillLearning August 20, 2018 4:50 PM BST
another varian odds on true to form there
Report StillLearning August 20, 2018 4:51 PM BST
oops thought it was odds on. sure it was at some point
Report Early Morning Riser August 24, 2018 4:51 PM BST
Another Varian odds on down.
Report StillLearning August 28, 2018 5:50 PM BST
haggas odds on shot coming up. You know what to do, folks
Report TheFear August 28, 2018 5:56 PM BST
hoiles in running followers laid that one Cry
Report Early Morning Riser September 3, 2018 6:30 PM BST
Another Varian odds on down
Report kevdartsking September 3, 2018 6:38 PM BST
Gleeful ...more like woeful shocking run
Report MJK September 3, 2018 6:45 PM BST
People will say lay them, but the question is why do so many of them get beat?
Report StillLearning September 3, 2018 6:54 PM BST
haggas one coming up
Report sparrow September 3, 2018 7:05 PM BST
Shocked
Report Early Morning Riser September 3, 2018 7:07 PM BST
Haggas odds on down. Its like finding money on the roadWhoops
Report sparrow September 3, 2018 7:09 PM BST
People keep backing them at the wrong prices it seems.
Report kevdartsking September 3, 2018 7:19 PM BST
Going off these prices purely on the connections they have Cry
Report differentdrum September 3, 2018 8:02 PM BST
I have stood for Prabeni a couple of times this season but fortunately tonight I finally got round to opposing him. The horse is a one-paced dog. It was laughable how the clowns on RUK were bigging up Moore's ride on Sextant when he beat Prabeni and one of the slowest horses in the Gosden yard. Sextant probably had about two stone in hand.
Report StillLearning September 18, 2018 4:36 PM BST
another skinny one to lay here in the 4.40
Report stridingedge September 18, 2018 4:47 PM BST
Shocked
Report TheFear September 18, 2018 4:48 PM BST
nice hope you got a few quid
Report sparrow September 18, 2018 4:48 PM BST
Shocked
Report sparrow September 18, 2018 4:49 PM BST
38.42 winner with jockey not looking like he wanted it to win.
Report SlippyBlue September 18, 2018 4:49 PM BST
Tudhope was utterly hopeless, just assumed it was a given he would win.
Report stu September 18, 2018 4:50 PM BST
feckin what was Tudhope doing exactly in that finish...???
Report stu September 18, 2018 4:51 PM BST
Only bothered trying once it was obvious he wouldn't catch the other one?
Report sparrow September 18, 2018 4:51 PM BST
James looked no better on the winner.
Report stu September 18, 2018 4:52 PM BST
Maybe so, but still doesn't excuse Tud 'effort' on that 1/4 shot
Report Tallywagger. September 18, 2018 4:53 PM BST
That final couple of furlongs was odd to say the least from Tudhope. Only got stuck in when it was too late.

I had no bet.
Report Poppydog. September 18, 2018 4:54 PM BST
Don't think it was dodgy, more over-confidence, which is infuriating for punters.
Report stu September 18, 2018 4:55 PM BST
Guessing he won't ride so 'oddly' next time he's on an O'Meara gamble for example...odd that.
Report TheFear September 18, 2018 4:56 PM BST
winning jockey done nth wrong sparrow, won cosy
Report stu September 18, 2018 4:57 PM BST
At least winning jock had an excuse that he was in front.
Report handtorofe September 18, 2018 4:59 PM BST
I backed 1.3 happy to get out at 1.24 never thought he looked happy
Report StillLearning September 18, 2018 4:59 PM BST
does 'getting stuck in' necessarliy make the horse go faster?

we don't know, we've never ridden a racehorse.
Report stu September 18, 2018 5:02 PM BST
It seemed to pick up again and close when he went for it, so yes IMO
Report stu September 18, 2018 5:03 PM BST
I'm sure I've seen Tud go for his whip like crazy to get a horse home at other times, so why not there?
Report TheFear September 18, 2018 5:11 PM BST
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
Report StillLearning September 18, 2018 5:17 PM BST
stu, may have been instructed by trainer not to go hard on the horse, remember they are not arsed they are not backing them
Report stu September 18, 2018 5:19 PM BST
Maybe just got overconfident when he should have tried to kick ahead further out, but not good either way.
Report stu September 18, 2018 5:24 PM BST
TBF his final ride out in the finish wasn't too bad, just that he sat back too long earlier in trying to gain an edge over the other horse, prob thinking he would win easy.
Report stu September 18, 2018 5:24 PM BST
oh well, like you say, they don't give a stuff about the 1/4 backers losing dosh for sure - I had some of it, but it wasn't my biggest winner in the field either.
Report davethehat September 18, 2018 5:25 PM BST
Tudhope is a first class tw@t end of. That was absolutely pathetic. He used the whip enough but not how it should be used. He never got after the horse with any strength at all and made the effort all too late. Ferkin useless and it happens regularly with him.
Report ProSniper September 18, 2018 5:27 PM BST
Tudhopeless.
Report ihal essex September 18, 2018 6:11 PM BST
TheFear
TheFear 18 Sep 18 17:11 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 11,460 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc


Rat faced jockeys..... How could you omit Ronald's daddy............ Shane Kelly??
Report Early Morning Riser September 19, 2018 4:58 PM BST
Haggas had another odds on loser over in France today.LaughLaugh
Report Early Morning Riser September 20, 2018 2:25 PM BST
Another Haggas odds on bites the dust. Laugh
Report MJK September 20, 2018 2:28 PM BST
Its become farsical. Some bright spark will say lay them instead of asking why this isn't being looked into.
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:29 PM BST
strange as up till last year you wouldn't be asking the question.
Report fredlyn September 20, 2018 2:30 PM BST
heavier weight on ground softening by minute
Report sparrow September 20, 2018 2:30 PM BST
It's not ethical to lay horses.
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:31 PM BST
surely the market is as efficient on heavy ground
Report fredlyn September 20, 2018 2:32 PM BST
the market may be but the results aren't
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:33 PM BST
this year last year chalk and cheese with haggas.

last year 31% in favour of the blind backer
this year 32% in favour of the blind layer
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:33 PM BST
sorry fred if the market is then the results are too
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:36 PM BST
actually the return for the layer this year on the Haggas odds on is around 44%
Report kevdartsking September 20, 2018 2:41 PM BST
Striding do you have any stats on 2yo favs carrying 6lbs + in these events as they seam to get beat so many times 2 already today
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:45 PM BST
No Kev for some reason these pens aren't working in nvc races in my DB.

I might get onto that cheers.
Report kevdartsking September 20, 2018 2:52 PM BST
Thanks striding I like to keep you busy Cool let me know your findings I think these were only introduce last couple of years to make things fairer but they seam to be to much for many of these favs Sad
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 2:58 PM BST
I just ran the following...

on the shorties favs (evs or less on BFSP) top weights carrying 6 to 14lbs higher than the race average in nvc races


    Bets        Wins        Win%        P/L(SP)        Place%        Race%        ROI(SP)        P/L(BF)        ROI(BF)        Lay(BF)        ROI(L)        Plc(BF)        Plc%(BF)        P/L(Plc)        ROI(BF Plc)        AvgOddBF        BF A/E        BF chi        BFExpWins        AvgWinOdd   
    64        42        65.63        -0.65        93.75        65.63        -1.02        0.39        0.61        -2.67        -7.07        59        93.65        3.66        5.8        1.59        1.02        0.03        41.35        1.51   





obvs early days but nothing significant.
Report kevdartsking September 20, 2018 3:02 PM BST
Thanks for that striding much appreciated yes early days but worth keeping a check on cheers
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 3:02 PM BST
mark johnston 9/10
Haggas was 2/3 before today

Haggas actually been showing slight profits in the place market with his shorties overall (including this year) so I'd reckon this year is no more than just one of them random anomalies.
Report stridingedge September 20, 2018 3:03 PM BST
ie this year lots of crossbar efforts for Haggas.
Report kevdartsking September 20, 2018 3:04 PM BST
Haggis just had a winner bolts up after the odds on flop the race before
Report Early Morning Riser September 25, 2018 7:54 PM BST
Another one that was odds on all day bites the dust after a drift in the betting.
Report corruptus in extremus September 26, 2018 1:57 PM BST
Odds on in next at Goodwood
Report Early Morning Riser September 26, 2018 3:48 PM BST
He's had a odds on winner today. Maybe he's being watched.
Report Early Morning Riser October 4, 2018 3:43 PM BST
Another one down.
Report stridingedge October 6, 2018 5:34 PM BST
Can he get this one home at wolves ?
Report thegiggilo October 6, 2018 5:40 PM BST
Interesting runner fastest maiden at chelmsford this season,thought it would go off 1/5.
Report thegiggilo October 6, 2018 5:51 PM BST
Cool
Report stridingedge October 6, 2018 5:55 PM BST
Tommo said won like a good odds on shot should.
Report thegiggilo October 6, 2018 6:02 PM BST
Considering postion it was in was probably 5ls better than that run..
Report davethehat October 7, 2018 11:34 AM BST
Won despite Jones riding it ferkerd one up the other day of haggas.
Report StillLearning November 1, 2018 2:39 PM GMT
another one bites the dust
Report Early Morning Riser November 5, 2018 5:13 PM GMT
And another one bites the dust, unreal how many odds on losers he has.WhoopsWhoops
Report stridingedge November 5, 2018 5:15 PM GMT
this year you are right EMR last year was completely the opposite
Report deadbrain59 November 5, 2018 7:57 PM GMT
YOU WOULDNT WIN EITHER WAY
Report Early Morning Riser November 6, 2018 5:00 PM GMT
Surely he cant get this won beat can heWhoops
Report StillLearning January 24, 2019 3:22 PM GMT
4/7 on Southwell no thanks
Report racing6699 January 24, 2019 3:28 PM GMT
this looks pretty bomb proof form wise(albeit not at the track)
Report StillLearning January 24, 2019 3:33 PM GMT
no slip ups their
Report Willie Shafter. January 24, 2019 3:36 PM GMT
lay much?
Report StillLearning January 24, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
backed the outsider of 3
Report Willie Shafter. January 24, 2019 3:47 PM GMT
Shocked
Report DenzilPenberthy January 24, 2019 3:52 PM GMT
Prior to today Haggas odds on shots at Southwell were:

6/9 66.67% £0.64 to sp nowt in it either way
Report Deltâ January 28, 2019 5:56 PM GMT
.
Report StillLearning October 25, 2019 3:30 PM BST
Surprised
Report duncan idaho October 25, 2019 3:34 PM BST
Haggas odds-on (SP) 2019 (before today): 39-52 (75%) roi @ Bfsp +19
Report hello :-) October 25, 2019 3:35 PM BST
poor squirrels
Report geoff m October 31, 2019 7:03 PM GMT
squirrels done their nuts on this 1!!
Report StillLearning September 21, 2020 3:40 PM BST
another one bites the dust
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