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stridingedge
31 Jul 18 11:40
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Date Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 61,267 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
1:50 £25 Rainbow Rebel
5:15 £50 Kalagia
5:15 £25 Rebel Assault

Kalagia is the strongest on my trend ratings flagged up twice in different systems, one of which is for the festival.

Rebel Assault had to be played as well in the race as it qualified on a more general system related to it's limited exposure at the trip in the type of race profile.

No negatives on any of the other runners today but have concentrated on the handicappers with the prices.The silver silks have seen Threading and Dee Ex Bee both score on debut in 2yo mdns from only 5 seeing the racecourse for the first time so Gainsborough Hat looks of obvious interest.

Gl everyone today

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By:
equine flew
When: 31 Jul 18 11:42
Making Miracles tomorrow
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 11:47
I should think when tomorrow's cards go through the DB later this afternmoon that would be a strong one equine flew.
By:
madhatters
When: 31 Jul 18 11:49
I'll see your three Stride
& throw in my 2

Kalagia
The Hat

Dark Vision nearly but think Blondie lurking at good price
GL
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 11:52
Wink
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 12:20
Hcp races for yard last 10 years...

runs in race w runs expected w ROI BFSP
1            2 38    4.38      -43.44%
2 or 3        20 144  11.23      77.43% 


I changed my mind on Rainbow Rebel in the opener a few times it obviously fits into the poor results group of single runners. It could have come here with less weight easily as a longer term plan before the last win sent it to a lofty 105 it runs off today.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 12:21
*obvs at GG festival ^
By:
Platini
When: 31 Jul 18 12:22
Fanning is the big negative on 2 of those, tho Wink
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 12:26
hopefully it doesn't come down to strength plats Whoops, he certainly knows his way around the place and the rides are usually very uncomplicated.
By:
Platini
When: 31 Jul 18 12:40
Rebel Asasualt would be my pref of the 2.

Might just do a cheeky rebel double tho, would be rude not to.
By:
onlooker
When: 31 Jul 18 12:41
You have Abandoned your Annual Full-Season Thread, then - striding  ...

- and are just going for the Goodwood glut.
By:
Platini
When: 31 Jul 18 12:44
Striding, do your stats take ground into consideration ?   Isn't MJ a top of the ground trainer ?
By:
handtorofe
When: 31 Jul 18 12:47
Could not fancy rainbow rebel off this mark but nothing surprises me anymore at Goodwood with his horses,good luck with the other 2
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 12:53
Certainly platini you can basically get a huge subset sample of thousands of runners just taking into account the fast ground and it's a positive with the yard's runners.

You'd have to say this festival should be seen as being a bit unique in itself though for the yard and Kalagia today would be the only one of slight concern if it rides nearer soft up the straight.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 12:55
handtorofe, it's strange that it took in a 9k race when it could have come here off of a much more lenient mark.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:00
Yes onlooker after 2 years of ending in a pence return I abandoned it. No damage done, it was very time consuming given the amount of runners to sift through in the heart of the season.
By:
STATSMAN
When: 31 Jul 18 13:01
Good luck stridingedge
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:03
Thank you Stats.
By:
handtorofe
When: 31 Jul 18 13:06
Strike while the iron is hot, surprised me last time the way it won but how long it can sustain this improvement is debatable prefer his runners coming here fresh to be honest.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:10
Yes I wasn't sure about this one, I'm not bothered about him being able to win with lofty top weights here but winning a decent prize and then taking in a 9k race and basically ruining it's mark for this prize at Goddwood is a bit strange if it's now to be uncompetitive.

Perhaps it's a case of job done at Haydock and this is a later after thought
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 31 Jul 18 13:13
Hope you're right se... I make Katagia my bet of the day Plain

Dark Vision my only other MJ fancy.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:17
Let's hope so mate Wink, looking forward to the footy this year can't wait!
By:
onlooker
When: 31 Jul 18 13:17
striding - Not only would it have been - "very time consuming given the amount of runners to sift through in the heart of the season."

But that was then exacerbated when on of his horses Won 'out of nowhere' - and you had swerved it as a bet.

Happened on more than a few occasions - and that must have floored you.

But - as they say - 'You can't back them all'
......... Well - you actually can - But, as you well know - that will only GUARANTEE a LOSS.
By:
handtorofe
When: 31 Jul 18 13:18
That's what I was thinking but would not put you off.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:22
Onlooker If you want to look at the facts the very fact it was a struggle was that not many horses did win from out of nowhere.

I went down the road of giving too many of the poor graded ones chances to revive and they just didn't.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 13:31
From 4304 runners in the last 10 years on g/f or f ground backing them all BLIND would have yielded a profit of 3.59% after commission.

If they were placed last time you have an 8% return BLIND from these runners whereas unplaced last time out a loss of 2.67%

so a profit over all on fast ground and the profit from runners that were placed lto

so that's pretty consistent imo!
By:
dibdob
When: 31 Jul 18 13:45
Can't have Rainbow Rebel in the first. Just the one MJ runner in a goodwood handicap?
By:
dibdob
When: 31 Jul 18 13:50
Tuff Rock for me here GL
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 14:06
Rainbow not disgraced but does look a bit high especially in such a competitive race.
By:
handtorofe
When: 31 Jul 18 14:11
Ran a good race but some big improvers in that race especially the winner which was miles in front of that mark
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 14:13
Yes indeed.
By:
wondersobright
When: 31 Jul 18 14:27
here we go Grin
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 14:28
your nearly one scoots in hatters

what a purchase that was!
By:
smirnoff2therescue
When: 31 Jul 18 14:29
looks a gudunCoolCool
By:
madhatters
When: 31 Jul 18 14:29
Nearly for small Grin
Impressive for where it was turning in
Looked boxed in
By:
handtorofe
When: 31 Jul 18 14:30
Unreal how that won from that position
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 14:30
no trends here for group runners but very impressive when button pushed.
By:
Platini
When: 31 Jul 18 14:30
No good winning on the shorties Sad
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 31 Jul 18 14:32
Wow. That was some performance. Had given up as they came round the bend.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Jul 18 14:33
yes often a hoiirrible place to be round there but had some real gears mate

wd Happy
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