2018 Mark Johnston at Glorious Goodwood...

Like you, Striding I don't fancy Dominating in the first either. But I'll have a tiny bet on it to cover my stake on my main fancy (Imphal).

Reckon Masham Star is one to be on today.

It's a niggle alright is Dominating, it looks the type that would probably keep on going over 4 miles.

It's one fair effort was dropped into a class 4, it's class 2 hcp form just doesn't look good enough to me and it's not as though others here don't have the scope for further improvement and they have already shown up in big races.

Multiple 3yo winners in season that come here in 3yo+ hcps have taken 3 out of 4 races (2-2) on the back of a win.

Of course ridiculously small sample but i don't think with the general strength of the meeting for the yards runners it's unreasonable not to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I think Juneau may well be able to squeeze out a bit more at this trip and a bit further, Vale of kent in the finale is yet another that's already won over further dropping back, it does seem to be a popular thing to do this time around but we are yet to see if it works.

To summarise there are no really strong trends today but 2 years ago I was guilty of not playing enough and paid the penalty so I'm actually going to give a few of these the benefit of the doubt to small stakes.

1:50 Dominating £10 yes I know I've changed my mind it's been a yes or no since last night several times over.
2:25 lynwood Gold £5 EW
4:45 Juneau £15
5:15 Vale Of Kent £15

not got the greatest of confidence but you only live once.

Good luck striding

Always an interesting read - Thank you

Dominating nowhere near good enough but the very definition of a 1 horse race anyhow

I hope they gift Making Miracles a soft lead like they did in the first

yes gl Equine and gl Lady Margaret with Masham later.

ominous feeling it's gonna be another 2yo only day

Giving the benefit of the doubt to these 'loose fits' is not working out too well is it.

A lot of horses brought here so far in the hcps that are just no longer competitive.

Tomorrow looks like being the best day so far(unless VOK can oblige in the lucky last) as I've just finished the card and there are no selections.

Joe Fanning's ride on Lynwood Gold was very suspect, it was like he didn't want to get placed under any circumstance.

I've only seen it in real time Dom but didn't think it was given too much urgency with the route taken and effort.

No excuses though a lot of these just look like they are not well handicapped at present.

I'd be very disappointed if VOK can't at least be still involved in the closing stages here, it's ran some good races in the class this season for decent prizes and it's last win doesn't suggest it's necessarily finished with another 3lb now back in a hotter contest.

It is yet another though that's dropping in trip having won races already over further and this is not the normal profile. Hopefully at last the difference here is that it is still competitive so will be able to use it's proven stamina.Rebel Assault is the only one so far that looked like it could win anywhere near the business end before the suspect stamina gave out, that certainly shouldn't be the case here.

*meant to say ran some good races in higher class for decent prizes

@Stridingedge

My point is why bring a well handicapped horse to Goodwood, where it has run 8lb above the race grade in a listed race, only to give it a spin round. Makes no sense, either Johnston has something on the agenda for Lynwood Gold, or Fanning gave it an absolute shocker.

For what it's worth, I don't think Rebel Assault didn't stay. I've actually advised a few clients to buy her when she goes to the sales. She has a pedigree which suggests she wants a trip, and she travels so easy in her races, but whilst the instinct may suggest she doesn't get she is actually one paced off the bridle and plugs on. Imo she will only achieve her juvenile ability when running over 10-12f.

That's interesting Dom it wouldn't be the first one of his I'd got wrong like that. I do remember it early doors as a 2yo because it fit in a group for this trainer with a very strong record (pretty sure it revolved around horses introduced on sharp tracks over 5f early season), this one certainly had a real lot of speed it absolutely sluiced up at catterick and won round windsor after being chinned at musselburgh over the minimum too.

Will be interested to see if it pans out as you say.

so used to seeing them travel like that round here and scoot away, my first instinct with the memories of it's 2yo pace just gave me the notion it is better over shorter

the listed drop into hcps is certainly not a strength Dom when you look at the results.

VOK getting short enough now 2 pts dropped on here recently

Vale ran a remarkable race striding

ran it's race but no cigar

-£150 after day 2 and a rest day tomorrow.

Not with Cupboard Love then Striding, the clues were in Johnston's interview yesterday imo.

No Dom I rarely go near the 2yo's, gl if you get involved.

Vok done by a nk
Ifs & buts etc
2yo slow burners so far
Todays the day ?

Communique - consistent form & SDS
Marie's Diamond - ditto
Stellar Comet - surely told RM a flier ?
GL

Gl hatters

nothing against any of them but there's nowt strong regarding the trends so I'm sitting out.

many of the 3yo's seem to be coming here after already achieving more, Communique 2 big races already and risen plenty for it.

Just seems most have been a bit further round the curve in terms of their development, a couple certainly 1 win too many in terms of coming here really competitive.

Einstein would struggle working Johnston out

winner for the sheik

striking, i did communique just now, do u fancy any others from johnston today?

wd hatters we have a handicap winner.

SDS 4 on the bounce at the festival for the yard (2 from last season and now 2/2 this)

striding sorry

like maries diamond too

I'm really just with the 3yo hcps can

got nothing against any of them though.

ok cheers

Reckon MJ throwing Mr chatty ringer Ryan in to throw all off the scent
Rocket went out like a light
Still hanging in there

Quiet day here
Where i get a kick in teeth

Hibernicus - could be anything
Kings - Blinks (altho head records are poor in general Stride tells me)

2:25 Threading 3yo G3

I think a threading in the form of it's Ascot run (despite being trounced by the very smart Alpha Centuri) would be a very hard horse to beat here.

No doubt many will think that the subsequent Falmouth flop (where the trainer could offer no explanation) is exactly the sort of thing that is regularly or at least more often than expected bounced back from next time out.I have found nothing to suggest this given similar conditions.

Threading could  well romp home and we will then no doubt hear how this is typical Johnston.If I had any actual evidence to support this notion I might play it at the price but I'm happy to leave it today.

did you get this from one of the tipping services mate

yes it's a tipping service that tells you not to back horses

3:00 Poets Society, Masham Star 3yo+ HCP

The yard has won 3 renewals of this in the last 10 but these winners were far less exposed than the pair that have turned up on this occasion.

Masham Star effort was ok at the festival earlier in the week but this season has just looked short in any of these decent hcps.

Poets Society well the same comments apply really has done well to win so many races but now at this stage there are surely no secrets. Looks a forlorn hope to me on trends and what's the book.

4:10 Port Leith, I Am A Dreamer 2yo Nursery

The yard is 2-31 here in the last 10 years with it's nursery runners, both were running in the sheikhs colours. Bear Valley had been runner up in 2 novices before readily scoring at Epsom lto in a mdn. Grigolo looked harder to find on form well btn in it's 2nd and 3rd mdn runs before transforming at the Festival going odd only 6/1.

The Dealer kindly passed on that Port Leith was thought to be a decent horse (from the owner he knows), though this in no way should be seen as a tip.

It still looks to be a substantial leap of faith for it to get it's head in front here and not playing the 2yo's all week it's not one for me.

been a frustrating meeting for followers of the MJ system, with only the shorties winning.

5:15 Hibernicus,Dr Richard Kimble,Kings Proctor,Winged Spur

Hibernicus is very hard to weigh up 2/2 in small field mdn and novice contests with nothing comning from either race yet so hard to know what it's beat.Nothing comparable  to go on, none of the 3yo hcp winners at the meet in the last 10 years have won by more than a couple of lengths last time.

Dr Richard Kimble looks plenty exposed around this sort of trip having seen further plenty of times which would not be a usual MO in a 3YO only hcp,just looks modest am struggling to see it find the necessary here with a run just 5 days ago.

Kings Proctor, I never like such messing about with the trip and the headgear for this yard combination has never been a good angle, blinkered ft runners rarely appeal but the class angle is more like what you might expect with a runner coming here having taken in some better races.

Winged Spur has crept up from winning a selling hcp certainly not an angle you'd expect to see at GG, the penultimate class 4 success qualifying it for a run but then another run down in trip and class that was very ordinary at yarmouth just 8 days ago.

So Hibernicus could be ??? very hard to tell, the others could just be here for a bit of exercise turned out so quickly.

I'm going to play Kings Proctor and Winged Spur very small but it's very tentative and the fact PJ is riding for another yard is hardly inspiring for the selections.

5:15 Kings Proctor £5, Winged Spur £5

Yes platini a lot of more exposed types this year that had done plenty of winning and already collecting good prizes.

Nice write ups mixed with stats Stride as usual
Saving the biggies for the morrow maybe ?
Or he could be looking to target other courses now closer to home

I'm still hoping the Soldier is off tomorrow with SDS back on (ft since last seasons win)

found out last time out from Denzil it was actually reported lame, I'd say the run before at HQ was defo a quiet one.

No great belief but should be a price.

Got to say the ground earlier in the week would have been better though

If Kings Proctor gets a soft lead today, he could run a big race imo.

However Johnston bet of the day has to be Danzay today, not at Goodwood, but off same mark as last week when second to a smart type, good 7lb claimer on, on a track that suits front runners.

Masham Star actually fits a group that has seen 6-8 winners with only 0.5 winners expected in the last 10 yeras at GG.

Dr Richard Kimble is in a group with Winged Spur that is 4-15 (1 expected) in the last 10 yeras at GG

SO i've got some decent small sample stats (soldier In Action fits the Masham Star set tomorrow) but I don't like the horses as individuals in their races

Knock Thirsk off the target list
Danzay on my list for later too

yes conditions at Thirsk changed.

Threading ran very tamely again

Lay line working well Stride

now that would be interesting

Mark Johnston,always trying. Can't touch his horse's

if it had won he would have been hanged and now its run two poor in a row he's hanged too

brilliant

Poets Society getting nibbled

the frankie factor or something else

Poets ran a blinder tbf

think william haggis has started to target glorious goodwood

he's certainly banging in a few recent seasons

more in 3 weeks imo

Ebor meet Wonders.

All there with a chance but as feared none of em well in there.

after day 4 -£160

"Veni, vidi, victus sum"

Cras alius dies est

2:25 1m6f 3YO+ Hcp

Soldier in Action

has to be doubts about this one this season though excuses last time after being reported lame at Newcastle.SDS back in the saddle for the first time since last years success but to me it looks like fast ground unlike many for the yard is not optimum at all.The mark is of course potentially very appealing again but the seasons best run was early on with some give underfoot.


Hochfield

Perhaps still paying for a romp in a HQ class 2 12 months ago when raised 9lb and is now actually a lb higher still.Not totally disgraced with only 2 spins this term after a belated return to the track.The yard rarely strikes in this class before getting them fit on the track, just a suspicion that this one could be a race short and perhaps is just a wee bit high in the ratings now.

Sofias Rock

Has ran some sound races this term and his reccent effort in a class 2 was not too shabby off a lb higher but they did rather finish in a heap there and there is a suspicion that this trip could well be stretching the stamina to breaking point.

Watersmeet

It's just hard to get away from the fact this horse is significantly better on the artificial surfaces and even with the turf discrepancy it looks a tough ask to come here and win a race like this.

Time To Study

I was wary of this one with the drop group to hcp company this initial drop rarely pays dividends for the yard.But this horse fit s a very strong group of 9 runners which have yielded 6 winners in the last 10 yeras at the festival and one of these was dropped in from G2 company. The basis of this group revolves around a quiet season in terms of winning form this season, a losing run which could be up to 10 races, a bit of proven back class and an unplaced lto effort before coming here.

The system says back it but it did say back masham star on friday too and I ignored it. My gut feeling is that this horse is a bit high in the ratings but it's a more dangerous leave than Masham Star, it's ran some sound races in and out of hcps.

see what the market looks like tomorrow.Leaning towards small plays of TTS and Hochfield.

* meant to add that Sofias Rock with just the one previous try at the trip would usually be very appealing if you thought the horse would stay.The flop when running over it came at York where so many of this yards runners for whatever reason just don't give their running.

Hi Striding formbook scores from my system has the following positon for Mark Johnston in the 2.25 on Saturday.


Time to Study - 5th
Watersmeet - 6th
Soilder in Action 7th
Hochfield 8th
Sofia's Rock 10th

Whilst he has over a third of the field, They're all very evenly matched and other trainers seem to have stronger hand. He is bound to have a winner, just not sure it is in this race.

Best of luck howerver, Soilder In action if it wasnt for his course form he wouldve finished near on last on formbook scores.

the sheik has 3 runners

TOP3MAN

I think your view is a pretty fair one tbh regarding none of the MJ ones looking overly strong.

IF Soldier In Action had some cut in the ground I may have given it a chance off this mark now but without even having to forgive a string of poor one paced looking efforts and the fact it was lame after it's last race, It's record with firm in the description is a big concern.For a yard that runs a lot of it's horses frequently on fast ground in the summer, this horse has often been kept to good or softer.

6-22 on good or softer and 0-7 placed once on quicker turf conditions.

It's a big stretch to see Watersmeet being good enough to land a race like this on turf, Time To Study I have a suspicion is just a few lbs high at the moment and I have serious stamina doubts about Sofias Rock, If I had a hunch this one would be ok at this trip on 2nd attempt I would definitely back it. Hochfield has come back late and had a couple of spins and been far from disgraced, there is no doubt this yard usually takes a bit of time with it's returning handicappers in this grade of race.I'm not sure 102 is a really appealing mark or that it may be better with another race or two under it's belt but conditions should be fine.

There's a mixture of the traits you want but all of these have some sort of substantial ?? and that is often not the case at this meet.

Going on to the Gordon Stakes...

It remains to be seen how good this years Derby is, early signs are not too promising it has to be said. Dee Ex Bee at this stage comes here the highest rated but I'd be a bit worried that it doesn't seem to quite find this season whatever the company it has kept. I think it's looking vulnerable to less exposed horses now and though I can obviously see it winning, a small field race that ends in a sprint for home would worry me.At the price I'm happy to swerve.


The 2yo contest at 4:15 was of course the successful starting point for Dee Ex Bee last year. Haven't played the 2yo's as is often the case at the meet and 2 nice looking types on paper yet to see the racecourse.The SDS mount looks very stoutly bred but both are types as you'd expect that should have plenty of scope as 3yo's next term.

I didn't actually have too much between lake Volta (non runner) and wednesday's gallant runner up Vale Of Kent, it would be no surprise to see another big run from this one. Haggas has been placing his horses very well here recently though and has 2 towards the top of the market including the very unexposed favourite that is pretty hard to weigh up of it's lofty starting mark in hcps.

The finale is a apprentice hcp, Aquarium has had plenty of quick races and was looking quite progressive before the pretty poor run lto over the straight mile at Ascot. Yes that was a higher class contest but the OR's were only 3lb different to today's so that run obviously need leaving well behind. All 4 wins so far have been going left handed but he's only gone right handed twice and was placed in a Kempton Novice.One I find a bit strange as could have come here fresh on a better mark before the last win and yet we see it here a few days later after a poor run.It's seeing 9f for the first time but it's a bit like many this week it's a bit of a ?? i can't rule out.

The ones I am contemplating now are....

Small plays on Hochfield and Time To Study
Going in again on Vale of Kent after wednesday's effort
Aquarium

or just take the losses on the chin this time around.

striding think will have small bet on his2yo West End Charmer 4 15 good wood as usual he complicates matters by having another in race, like Hochfield but Time To Study seems to like softer ground probably sluice up now.

Gl dod

Nothing jumps out from an unusual angles
Happy to leave the shorties today - could win
Fishy in the last for me
GL

Gl Hatters in the Lucky Last

Am going to take the stakes up fro the week to £200 (or more than likely down!)

2:25 Hochfield £10, Time To Study £5
4:50 Vale Of York £25
5:25 Aquarium £10

I plan on having a hefty ew punt on Soldier in Action. Breeding actually suggests the horse will be better on firm ground. Owner also loves a big punt so late money will be telling and will determine how big I go.

fair do's dibdob

I couldn't back it on fast ground from what I've seen

my pics are very low confidence, i actually said on here months ago SIA looked a likely GG plot so will be plenty of egg on face if it collects.

I went to lay Soldier earlier at 9.4 and 9.6 for a lump but soon as I clicked went 10 10.5 to lay so did not get a penny will wait to see if it shortens before ill lay it.

Hope any late money won't be from people backing SIA because sds is riding.

SIA used to set it up for the others. Fingers toasty as luckily no late money. Disappointing that nothing from the yard fighting out the finish.

hochfield ran well

Absolute sh1te the scotch vet this week

Think you’re right and Vale of York could be the one today Blackbarn. Hochfeld ran well.

2019 MJ The Laying Fred

wrong fred

laying fred next year??

Aug 4, 2018 -- 9:03AM, stridingedge wrote:

laying fred next year??

His shorties have been winning pretty consistently.

Its been a head scratching few years. One year it was his 2 year olds and PJ McDonald going strong. One year he's doing all his winning on the a/w. Franny riding the best horses one year. This year there are very few double figure winners and almost none in the 20s.

threading, dee ex bee

And the handicapping ones that have looked un competitive have mostly been so!

Thought VOK was getting chinned again there

WD Stride
Bit back in the kitty
Had Buick here

lucky last for a miraculous get out hatters

WD winners

certainly got a bit of luck there, horses ran 100% genuine again though after a couple of days.

just for a minute there appraoching the furlong pole

ran sound race for 3rd but winner sailed through late

And so it ends
With place dosh

Crowley multis baled the day

Well thanks to everyone who contributed on the thread

2 handicap winners for the yard this year and both at short odds 4.84 and 4.22.

Managed to find one of them today but the 2018 thread shows a loss of £98.52.

sheik 2 wins 5/2 4/1.

sheik =+16 off 56 runs 100+rated.not brilliant