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TheBaron
28 Jul 18 18:08
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Date Joined: 18 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 2,389 | Blogger: TheBaron's blog
If the in running price of two horses(one with a SP of 2.5 the other 10.0) drops to 2.0 at the same time, statistically would the horse with the lower SP win more often or would the SP make no difference to the result?
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Report Deltâ July 28, 2018 6:13 PM BST
yes
Report onlooker July 28, 2018 6:24 PM BST
No
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 6:25 PM BST
maybe
Report duncan idaho July 28, 2018 6:27 PM BST
which osses?
Report layemall July 28, 2018 6:27 PM BST
sorry
Report pablo-fanque July 28, 2018 6:31 PM BST
don't know
Report brassneck July 28, 2018 6:59 PM BST
perhaps
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 7:01 PM BST
That would be an ecumenical matter.
Report ProSniper July 28, 2018 7:01 PM BST
One suspects the SP odds are "truer" than those adjusted throughout the race. But ultimately, one couldn't say for sure without having all the facts in front of them. This is a question that could only be answered by data freaks. And you'll find they're pretty hush hush when it comes to giving out free info that they themselves have paid for..
Report tips July 28, 2018 7:10 PM BST
I would say the horse at 10 would win more often
Report Cork Langer July 28, 2018 7:10 PM BST
Dr Slicer is an authority on all matters, but haven't seen him post in a while, he would have the appropriate answer for you.
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 7:11 PM BST
I sayed it was an ecumenical matter Corky, NOT an epicurean won.
Report freddiewilliams July 28, 2018 7:11 PM BST
Yep the 10.0. 2.5 would easily go 2.0 in running and would mean nothing
Report Cork Langer July 28, 2018 7:20 PM BST
Immaterial Mouse, I get paid for promoting Dr Slicer, so I quote him whenever an opportunity arises...!
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 7:20 PM BST
Very well, send in the good doctor.
Report GLASGOWCALLING July 28, 2018 7:22 PM BST
poor ol father ted mouse, died too early. !! Sad
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 7:38 PM BST
Sad fair few years ago now weren't it
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 7:39 PM BST
1998, aged 45
Report freddiewilliams July 28, 2018 8:20 PM BST
8.15 race 1st example
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing July 28, 2018 8:38 PM BST
mouse layed that won
Report Charlton2005 July 29, 2018 10:11 AM BST
baron, i liken this to two golfers playing the last 4 holes of the open, one sp 5/1 one sp 500/1, now both 1/1. i would lay the 500/1 as the choke effect takes hold. this could apply to jockeys too. no doubt a system is waiting to be built on the answer to your question. a LOT of analysis needed though
Report onlooker July 29, 2018 10:36 AM BST
By  the time all that 'Analysis' had been done - referred to - and then TRIED to be applied ...

The bloody race will have been over - long ago.
Report geoff m July 29, 2018 12:06 PM BST
When 2 hosses are trading @ 2.0 by the time youve placed your back or lay its extremley unlikely they are still both trading
Report geoff m July 29, 2018 12:06 PM BST
@ 2.0  as onlooker suggested
Report dave1357 July 29, 2018 1:34 PM BST

Jul 29, 2018 -- 10:11AM, Charlton2005 wrote:


baron, i liken this to two golfers playing the last 4 holes of the open, one sp 5/1 one sp 500/1, now both 1/1. i would lay the 500/1 as the choke effect takes hold. this could apply to jockeys too. no doubt a system is waiting to be built on the answer to your question. a LOT of analysis needed though


The choke factor is already in the odds which are an auction of opinions like that.

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