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Amazing how so many people get sucked in by him. Essentially he bluffs and tries to justify with long phrases . In the first at Salisbury he said progeny of Kodiac had the highest percentage of winners on soft. When in fact its actually the lowest percentage.
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People only listen to Comical Willow for the entertainment value.
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he,s doing a nevo trying to look clever using horses pedigrees to find winners,nevo lasted 3 months before admitting defeat and returning to backing favs and following the market
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He’s awful
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bit rich slagging someone off when you dont listen properly to what they are saying...he was referring to 'True Strike Rate' figures he had researched for his blog
The true value of a sire's win-loss record on soft and heavy going [i]I am a little short of time but wished to present the following data to support my appearance on Racing UK this afternoon from Salisbury. (I will flesh out the details at a time when I am not having to learn form details of all the runners too.) The question is: how do we evaluate a sire's true Strike Rate on soft and heavy going using only observed win-loss records, given the different sample sizes? A selection of some of the data (extracted from www.proformracing.com) is presented in the table. Sire R W SR IV PL ROI xW AE Aqlaam 145 17 11.72 1.18 50.1 34.6 15.0 1.14 Aussie Rules 278 19 6.83 0.76 538.0 193.5 23.0 0.83 Authorized 380 67 17.63 1.84 198.9 52.3 52.0 1.29 Born To Sea 96 11 11.46 1.17 33.0 34.4 11.7 0.94 In small samples, such as that of Born To Sea, there is more randomness in a statistic, especially where the numbers come from just one horse. One way to smooth out the different randomness in each sample-size is to use the beta-binomial distribution. We fit parameters W and L, constituting a prior sample of wins and losses to be added to a stallion's record, by maximising the likelihood of a the beta-binomial using observed data since 1997 on soft and heavy going in Britain and Ireland. It's the results you will be interested in, but here briefly is how I did it in R: First, I wrote a likelihood function which calculates the sum of the logs (the exponent of this is the same as the product of all the probabilities) of the density of the beta-binomial distribution for each sire's win-loss record: log.like |
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And he got it totally wrong
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that didnt reproduce fully but hey ho
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stride patterns useless, ties himself up in knots.
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Tying himself in knots as per usual
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he got it totally wrong based on 1 race?! dont be silly
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On most races - it’s total nonsense
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iyo
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The true value of a sire's win-loss record on soft and heavy going
[i]I am a little short of time but wished to present the following data to support my appearance on Racing UK this afternoon from Salisbury. (I will flesh out the details at a time when I am not having to learn form details of all the runners too.) The question is: how do we evaluate a sire's true Strike Rate on soft and heavy going using only observed win-loss records, given the different sample sizes? A selection of some of the data (extracted from www.proformracing.com) is presented in the table. Sire R W SR IV PL ROI xW AE Aqlaam 145 17 11.72 1.18 50.1 34.6 15.0 1.14 Aussie Rules 278 19 6.83 0.76 538.0 193.5 23.0 0.83 Authorized 380 67 17.63 1.84 198.9 52.3 52.0 1.29 Born To Sea 96 11 11.46 1.17 33.0 34.4 11.7 0.94 In small samples, such as that of Born To Sea, there is more randomness in a statistic, especially where the numbers come from just one horse. One way to smooth out the different randomness in each sample-size is to use the beta-binomial distribution. We fit parameters W and L, constituting a prior sample of wins and losses to be added to a stallion's record, by maximising the likelihood of a the beta-binomial using observed data since 1997 on soft and heavy going in Britain and Ireland. It's the results you will be interested in, but here briefly is how I did it in R: First, I wrote a likelihood function which calculates the sum of the logs (the exponent of this is the same as the product of all the probabilities) of the density of the beta-binomial distribution for each sire's win-loss record: log.like WTF has the shiite above got to do with understanding racing. It is simply the logic of someone too lazy to follow racing closely on a daily basis. Using IT as a substitute for objective review of actual races is the lazy man's approach. |
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cracksman topclass as is enable, GOSDEN/DETTORI
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Obviously it’s my opinion otherwise I wouldn’t have posted it
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Did he say when his book is due to be published?
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LOPER
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Comparing Willo (who does his own mathematical analysis and stats) to Nevo (who does what exactly...)?
Duncan you may as well save your breath, Willo's wasted on this lot. |
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no axe to grind, George...was merely trying to point out that welshbullsh!t's OP was based on his inability to listen properly and thus quite false
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In your opinion, d*ickhead
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loper 30 Apr 18 14:39
WTF has the shiite above got to do with understanding racing. It is simply the logic of someone too lazy to follow racing closely on a daily basis. Using IT as a substitute for objective review of actual races is the lazy man's approach. -------------- Absolutely correct - loper. Both STATS and Academia have no real place in racing - are of no use in finding both the winners of races - AND a PROPER BET. STATS - Speed Figures - et al - are, as loper intimates - simply excuse theories and methodologies for people who are not capable of performing proper FORM STUDY |
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a COTC who can give a corret ground reading to punters will be far more valuable than all of willo,s bullshopite
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There ya go, Willo told you unequivocally before the race, Sixties Icon on the soft
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He also mentioned about 6 others, George.
Not only that but he said 2 horses might shock, 2 might not and the fav will be up there! All bases covered and no mention of which horses may or may not shock, just that 2 might. Great stuff, well worth the subs |
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no his point was bookmakers,layers on here dont no, sixties icons for example like soft ground,and theres value to be had,when in fact we all no layers,bookies,bookies grapevine are far more clued in than willo will ever be
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one would imagine any loon can deduce that any horse running today ion the opinion of connections,pedigrees doesn't want it firm,
,once you've deduced the easy bit those likely to be suited to the going is to no which ones are off slightly harder, |
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has willo unearthed any short price favs we can lay at Salisbury ,who,s sires,pedigree previous form suggest they need the ground like the m25, thought not
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is this Thirsk analysis a get up to annoy people,
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willo best horse by a mile
best prices,best horse under the conditions, under his knew system top rated hammered,busted flush market mover wins,  , needs to give nevo a ring |
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Fancied lady bergamot there strongly and thought Luke Catton was riding Pretty Jewel.
There isn’t many on RUK who I mute but he’s one. |
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the 3rd fancied strongly by willo and by master craftsmen came out best on willo,s pre race ramblings,willo now says will be better on summer grpiund in mid season,so wtf was the point in his system to find horses who,ll act in todays ground,
willo cracks it ,finds a system to pinpoint heavy ground horses in april so hecan back them on fast ground in the summer,sounds lioke another gold mine for the bookmakers, ,willo must be a Trojan horse for bookmakers |
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So jimeen is one who has Willo on mute...but still hears what he says.
The Sixties Icon runner traded 1.07 in the run, that's as good as a winner! |
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You a lip reader then, jimeen?
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George b
unfortunately under willo,s system the 3rd by master cratsmen came out in front of the sixties icon runners in that race,you need to pay more attention |
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Traded at 1.07 is as good as a winner,well that's certainly news to me.
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thar ya go, 1sttp, just for you, a Mastercraftsman winner
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Lol!
Willow tipped up the fav, said he didn't fancy the other 2, and that Passing Glance's soft ground figures were amazing!!! |
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Watch out for the new JW book. “ Willownomics”. Loosely based on the bestselling “Freakonomics” it’s bound to entertain, fascinate and inspire you. Even if you don’t understand a phucking word in it!
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said that was top[ rated under his system but didn't give it a single mention pre race ,which suggests he doesn't think much of his own research
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....plus he said 'look at horses action! Tailor made for soft ground'.
Shame he's never been arsed to watch the horse previously or even watch it go to post today. |