James Willoughby

There ya go, Willo told you unequivocally before the race, Sixties Icon on the soft

He also mentioned about 6 others, George.

Not only that but he said 2 horses might shock, 2 might not and the fav will be up there!
All bases covered and no mention of which horses may or may not shock, just that 2 might.
Great stuff, well worth the subs

no his point was bookmakers,layers on here dont no, sixties icons for example like soft ground,and theres value to be had,when in fact we all no layers,bookies,bookies grapevine are far more clued in than willo will ever be

one would imagine any loon can deduce that any horse running today ion the opinion of connections,pedigrees doesn't want it firm, ,once you've deduced the easy bit those likely to be suited to the going is to no which ones are off slightly harder,

has willo unearthed any short price favs we can lay at Salisbury ,who,s sires,pedigree previous form suggest they need the ground like the m25, thought not

is this Thirsk analysis a get up to annoy people,

willo best horse by a mile
best prices,best horse under the conditions, under his knew system top rated

hammered,busted flush

market mover wins,

, needs to give nevo a ring

Fancied lady bergamot there strongly and thought Luke Catton was riding Pretty Jewel.
There isn’t many on RUK who I mute but he’s one.

the 3rd fancied strongly by willo and by master craftsmen came out best on willo,s pre race ramblings,willo now says will be better on summer grpiund in mid season,so wtf was the point in his system to find horses who,ll act in todays ground,
willo cracks it ,finds a system to pinpoint heavy ground horses in april so hecan back them on fast ground in the summer,sounds lioke another gold mine for the bookmakers, ,
willo must be a Trojan horse for bookmakers

So jimeen is one who has Willo on mute...but still hears what he says.

The Sixties Icon runner traded 1.07 in the run, that's as good as a winner!

You a lip reader then, jimeen?

George b
unfortunately under willo,s system the 3rd by master cratsmen came out in front of the sixties icon runners in that race,you need to pay more attention

Traded at 1.07 is as good as a winner,well that's certainly news to me.

thar ya go, 1sttp, just for you, a Mastercraftsman winner

Lol!

Willow tipped up the fav, said he didn't fancy the other 2, and that Passing Glance's soft ground figures were amazing!!!

Watch out for the new JW book. “ Willownomics”. Loosely based on the bestselling “Freakonomics” it’s bound to entertain, fascinate and inspire you. Even if you don’t understand a phucking word in it!

said that was top[ rated under his system but didn't give it a single mention pre race ,which suggests he doesn't think much of his own research

....plus he said 'look at horses action! Tailor made for soft ground'.

Shame he's never been arsed to watch the horse previously or even watch it go to post today.

why you all having a go at James, we have a guy reading from the paper at the other meeting, and talking in broken biscuit as well,seriously not enjoying show today

1st and 2nd down to the horse ,3rd and 4ths down to the jockey another nugget from willo, ,

maybe they should decide the jockeys championship on the number of 3rds and 4ths instead of winners

it must be a pi*s easy life though - if you can blag your way onto TV
phonies r us

His judgement of Poppy seemed somewhat illogical.

However, his strongest soft ground sire stat of the day did well, not coming last and only beaten 23 lengths.

So we're all agreed, it's been another thoroughly entertaining, informative and enjoyable afternoon in the company of the world's number one pundit.

Shame its all over.

But his wrap is just as entertaining.

Yates ruined it for me.

has someone got there arm up his back ... his top lip dont move...

by willo,s logic its amazing messi and Ronaldo keep pipping james milner to the ballon d,or

According to Willow anyone who followed his sire stats today would have been in clover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

pity the bottom one does,

only if the clover was hidden in a pile of shoite

that's willo in a nutshell seem genuinely shocked that horses who like heavy won in heavy ground at salisbury

Well you can turn over to ATR now and watch everyone's favourite entertainer Matthew Chapman.

may be its an age thing - like McCririck,  he should be shown the door
getting more irrelevant by the day

that's willo in a nutshell seem genuinely shocked that horses who like heavy won in heavy ground at salisbury

But they didn't!!!

No doubt Willoughby's Pedigree methodology  would have found that latest 2-yr-old winner at SOUTHWELL ...

-  second foal; half-brother to French 5f 2yo claiming winner Reboot; dam 6f turf/7f beach winner (RPR 72),

I read  some time ago that the tv experts were not allowed / discouraged from giving opinions on a race outcome based on a system????

Andy Gibson set the standard last week.

I don't rate his quasi-maths based opinions but there are likely to be many that do.

Pearls of wisdom or polished turds? It's all about opinions.

(As an aside, I respect the fact that not so long ago he very publically acknowledged the challenge he had to face up to in raising a low-functioning autistic son. It's reproduced below.)

Thursday, 10 February 2011
The gaps in my story

For anyone who cares to wonder...

* * *

"Mr Willoughby, your son Jossie is a low-functioning autistic. He will never have a normal life."

These words were issued by a serious-minded woman in the equally austere setting of a London clinic. It was January, 2008, but the sights, sounds and smells will stay with me forever.

I looked sideways at Janet. Her face seemed to reflect the way mine probably now appeared. I felt terror, fear, helplessness.

And something had been making it worse. Jossie was two years and one month then, but I had always known there was a problem. I saw it in his face the moment he was handed to me in hospital.

But I never said a word. Not to Janet, not to my parents, not to anyone. For every few minutes of every day for two years, I desperately tried to make the whole thing go away.

Like a fool, I sought alternative explanations and abandoned common sense. But I was constantly reminded of my folly: the way his eyes didn't meet with mine; the way he didn't seem to react to his sister's prompts to learn; the way he did not indulge himself with imaginary play.

The story I told myself never made sense. I read book after book on cognitive development, looking for this condition or that, something milder and less permanent which would explain the symptoms burned into my consciousness.

Of course, I never found an explanation, except the one I feared the most. Why didn't I voice my fears to someone? Why didn't I act rationally, honestly, openly?

Somehow I felt I had to hang onto hope. As if reality might just morph into it, if only I kept quiet.

I hoped I might look into Jossie's cot one night and finally see him looking back at me. Night after night I did. But to acknowledge his condition would be to extinguish the chance tomorrow. So I continued the delusion.

It is no coincidence that I screwed up a couple of important friendships about then. To be fair to both, they hung in longer than I would have. It took me a long while to completely finish the job.

The day that humourless pediatrician delivered the hammer blow was in some ways a relief. Even this did not mitigate the nascent feeling of terror, however. To hear her stoic words - framed by the spiritless sourrounds of bleached, white walls - was like getting the sack in the office at the end of the world.

The fact I was on Racing UK less than two hours later was tragi-comic. I must have been like sitting next to a ghost for Angus. I told him what had happened in vague terms; he asked if I was alright about 37 times.

It would have to be Nad Al-Sheba. Even in the pit of despair, absurdity can penetrate low mood. Some of the racing at the Dubai Carnival those days was surreally bad. There were more bandages on display than the place I had just come from.

I got through the shift, thanks to my friend. But that day started a journey of despair. I don't do things by half and what I did half-killed me.

That night, after Janet had gone to bed,  I walked round and round the living room. I reminded myself that at least I had been given a decent brain; I reasoned that Jossie's salvation was within my power. (This, I later recognised, is the manifestation of Freud's morality-based concept of super-ego.)


It was soon clear that medical science has only scratched the surface of Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD). I distrust academia and so managed to convince myself they might have missed something. (Now, this seems beyond ridiculous to admit.)

So, I started to teach myself neurobiology. On trips to my parents in Dewsbury, I bought books from Borders; on visits to the office at Canary Wharf, I stopped at Foyles in Charing Cross.

I learned about the interplay between thoughts, perception, feelings and behaviour. Most profound of all was the effect of diet on brain chemsitry. Soon, I suggested we get Jossie on a special diet. It has helped a lot.

Janet did all the work, of course. She got up even earlier to bake special bread, biscuits and cakes; she added extra vitaminins and lowered the dose of others. We still think endlessly about modifications and tinker more than Claudio Ranieri. I admit some of it is for my sake.

I started staying up until 3am, endlessly leafing through books and academic papers I bought online. I was like a mad scientist.

I speed-read through complex material, skipped parts I did not understand (most of it) or felt was not relevant (the remainder). I was desperately searching for a moment of enlightenment.

Except you don't find an awakening when you should be going to bed. I started waking up with my head on the computer keyboard.

And that's when my work started to suffer. I had no energy to engage with the material. I tried harder and harder but my stuff became so bland that people began to understand it!

So, I gradually cut out freelance gigs. Then I gave up Racing UK, first partly and then completely - my Racing Post contract made things awkward anyway.

I wanted to make more and more time in the search of an answer. It was then I first had the notion of giving up work altogether.

In September, 2009, I wrote a resignation letter and headed off to give it to Bruce at Canary Wharf. But I never got as far as his office door.

John Cobb got to me first: those of you who have encountered him will know he is one of the kindest and most compassionate men there is.


He must have picked up something. Whatever, he managed to subvert my desperation on the spot. He took me to the canteen and told me not to resign but to ask for a sabbatical.

I did this and Bruce granted it with no hesitation. I wasn't in any state to be making the decision to resign.

But a reduction in work commitments only allowed more time to ruminate. Now, the work goes on much more slowly. Then, it was still manic.

I have needed the last 14 months to reach peace with the decision to leave. But my motives also became different.


Fortunately, there came a point when I was brought to my senses. I fell over in the street while walking my dog. Like Tony Soprano, I thought it was a brain tumour and I was dying. It turned out to be Labyrinthitis - a viral infection of the inner ear which results in severe vertigo and sometimes triggers panic-like symptoms.

Unfortunately, the resulting effect on my vestibular system (the co-ordination of sensory and visual stimuli which provides balance) is chronic. I am going to be battling it for a while yet.

My sabbatical changed my feelings about the Racing Post. I was there nearly 15 years and every one was tremendous. But now it felt like the end of an era had been triggered; that it was time for a change.

I developed an endemic need for a new challenge. I felt it to my core, it did not need a fresh stimulus and it would not go away.

I was ready because I had got over the mindless obsession with finding a miracle cure for autism. Better still, I had started to treat Jossie like any loving Dad does an ordinary child.

I can't play football in the backyard with him or teach him the piano. And, luckily for him, I will never be able to talk to him about expected value, logistic regression or Markov chains.

He will not feel romantic love or even empathy, shared experience or the joy of knowledge. But neither will he fight, hate, envy nor destroy. 

But the joy for his father can be found in the little things. It might be the way he chuckles when his obsessive games are disrupted; it might be the way he has learned to order numbers and letters by rote; most emotively, it is in his clearly expressed sense of aesthetics.

I have thought about the last point repeatedly. Here am I, wrapped up in the material world, forever casting around in the chaos of the past or the uncertainty of the future. I don't make time to smell the roses.

But Jossie will stop on a walk and look at the branches of a tree. God knows what he sees but it captivates his attention, draws him into the beauty of nature and brings him back to the same spot time and again.

Screw logistic regression. I wish I could do that.

Nowadays, I look on his cognitive development in a much more tranquil way. And where I tried to lead, I have now learned to follow; where I tried to command, I now only shepherd.

And, as I have regained connection with my humanity, the joy of racing has returned. I don't mind admitting I had lost touch with the emotional content of watching racehorses.

It is strange but the Arc helped to bring it back. And I had never really got Sea The Stars to that point.

I don't want to write articles in the Racing Post anymore because I have explored all the possibilities the medium can offer. It is nobody's fault and there is no cause for regret.

It's not that I yearn for something necessarily better, just something different. It doesn't need to be high-profile or high-powered. I just want to live in the moment again and be around people. And I'll make the most of any creative opportunity which comes my way.

Clearly, I also need to earn money to support my family. But I figure that will come. And if it doesn't, I will make it. I am prepared for any eventuality.

There are too many people at the RP to thank individually. I wish those at the paper all the best and will continue to have a high opinion of everyone.

And that's it. You can hit me up on Twitter nowadays @Prof_Hindsight. I have chosen that name because a punter in the bookies where I used to work would tease me with it.

Thanks for reading. The vast majority of posts will be a lot shorter and live up to the title of this blog.

duncan idaho • April 30, 2018 2:31 PM BST
bit rich slagging someone off when you dont listen properly to what they are saying

spot on duncan

4 of the top 8 stallions on the list were responsible for 4 of the winners at salisbury today (5-2, 6-1, 12-1, 14-1)
and the bottom 17 stallions on the list were responsible for just 1 winner between them (15-8)

no point trying to educate pork

I like Willoughby, and I won many pounds back in the mid 2000 -2010 with him. He knew the difference between anaerobic and aerobic respiration recognition in horses and no one would listen, but I did.

THAT wasn't willo,s argument,how many already had form on soft/heavy ground,willo wasw dsaying bookies/layers don't take into accoumnt horses who act on heavy ground when making their book so theres an edge to be had,which of course is absolute shoite.markets are price sensitive to everything even what side a horse gets out of bed, it it was fcast heavy ground for the 2000 on Saturday the markets would over react to any horse who,s either acted or bred to act on soft ground,amy ryan could flag 99.9% of them up because they,d be spotlighted in the post

Powerful piece about his son - but then he's never been less than interesting on any topic in my view. I get the scepticism about his theories but his passion for the game has always swung it for me.

Id rather listen to James than the jobsworth cravat wearing knob called Dave Yates ....who for the last hour has been spouting out ****..... in-between trainers comments from his Dictaphone from last year regarding group flat horses running this year.

Imagine being Angus MCNae right now - i dont know how he does it.

the latest willo ,captain ,ruk wonder horse will be running in Kentucky on sat night ,their previous reincarnations of Pegasus gladitorious,hawkwing never won another race between them after willo and co flagged them up as the new pegasus

I'll get mart to check the figures, tar.

I say be thankful for Willoughby's dynamic approach to the game - we need more theorists like him. He thinks in different ways and i will enjoy listening to him as i can learn something.

^ But what, exactly, DO you learn?

His knowledge of the day to day horses is ordinary at best though he is certainly not alone in that. I find him enteraining though and he occasionally says something useful that I wasn't aware of.

in graded races with trainers having 1o of the 12 runners 4th,5th stable best dotting up,jocks trying to go round fences when dotting up,taking the dangers out,ch hurdle winners been handed 10 lengths start,not much point installing madecap theories

He don't do the hedgehoppers, for the reasons you just outlined 1stTP

trainer 3 in the last at thirsk including fav best form,best draw,yop jock tailed off last ,other 2 including one beaten miles every run 1st and 2nd,

Obrien has 4,4 runners in classics with unfathomable form,betting patterns

Apr 30, 2018 -- 3:28PM, Barton Bank wrote:

His knowledge of the day to day horses is ordinary at best though he is certainly not alone in that. I find him enteraining though and he occasionally says something useful that I wasn't aware of.

my point exactly

what like jockeys finishing 3rd and 4th are better than those finishing 1st and 2nd,

Clearly some on here are impressed by pseudo intellectuals.

What insults the intelligence of the sane, Mr Average punter who knows what a difficult game this is, is that Willow is given a platform to spout his unproven theories and as a result genuinely considers himself a superior thinker, frequently making condescending remarks at the expense of those watching and listening that might chose alternative means of identifying value.

Value seems well down his list of priorities when coming up with endless stats, most of which are very simplistic, such as the number of David Evans runners that win when wearing cheekpieces for the first time. No mention was made that the Evans beast in question was trading at too short a price to be value on that stat alone.

I love listening to james........only him and mellish worth listening to............gary Obrien and kevin blake likewise on ATR

He is very interesting to listen to but as he has admitted absolutely everything he comes up with is completely overshadowed by the betting which is determined by simple facts that sway the masses and inside knowledge.

when he starts beating the book with decent betting opportunites that prove successful i'll listen..until then he can postulate to others who care to listen
if he isn't a successful bettor in his own right then his relevance to punters is inconsequential

This thread alone is proof that Willo is doing a fine job.  A Dave Yates thread, for example, would never hit 81 and counting.  Having opened with "complete guesser" someone else would type "cravat-wearing ****".  We'd all nod and it'd be over in 2.

Isn't it nice to have someone bring a different (considered) view to proceedings?  Dunno why onlooker and a few others want him to stand there blurting out pounds and ounces.  I don't need that, I've got it all in front of me.

gosden /dettori, all you need

Willoughby is not my personal ‘cup of tea’. And he can be a condescending so & so. 
Nevertheless at least he delivers something different to others who do little homework.

A Smart Alec certainly, but is he really a Clever Dick?   

To me at best intriguing, certainly abstract and at worst boring.

The Heasdmaster -

I don't want Willoughby to - "to stand there blurting out pounds and ounces."

THAT is the LAST thing that I would want to hear from his lips.

Like yourself,  and as you say ... "I don't need that, I've got it all in front of me."

We'd all nod and it'd be over in 2.

I did lol at that.

The length of this thread just seems to suggest how gullible people are in believing that different actually equals worthwhile.

I have never heard him come up with anything that would get me a single extra winner. He can't even utilise what he comes up with himself.

He reminds me a little of the pedigree boffins. Yes, it might make you appear knowledgeable but for many that is about the extent of the usefulness.

there's plenty to be made from pedigrees...as with anything, tho, if you're so arrogant to dismiss what you dont understand, then you never will

May 3, 2018 -- 7:17AM, duncan idaho wrote:

there's plenty to be made from pedigrees...as with anything, tho, if you're so arrogant to dismiss what you dont understand, then you never will

correct

as posted earlier on the thread, 4 of the 8 winners at salisbury that day were in the top 8 sires on his adjusted strike rates on soft/heavy ground
2 of them at double figure prices

and the bottom 17 sires were responsible for 1x 15/8 winner

willoughby undoubtedly had some novel ideas in the past. Even his own piece on this thread though said he'd run out of things to write about. Plus i think those family issues have taken a toll but that is understandable. He got the human side of himself across very well in that posting.

wondersobright, i had the mute on much of the day at salisbury, i only heard him being positive about seasearch (which i was very happy to lay at odds on of ~1.6, went off even shorter), did he put up horses to back or lay at specific prices, thereby converting his opinion to chance/risk or was it just a load of chat?

I wasn't watching rider, I've read his blog

Pretty sure he didn't do what you suggest Rider. If anyone could do such things well that person would be a pro gambler. Some may think he should be able to put all his largely clever ideas together and make plenty of cash. Trouble is number crunching even at it's best will not make money for long. As Veitch said there's no other way but hard work.

wondersobright
03 May 18 14:28
Joined: 13 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 49,991 | Blogger: wondersobright's blog
I wasn't watching rider, I've read his blog


LOL!

Nice to see Willow carrying on where he left off. LOL!

CLEARLY DONE HIS BOLLOX ON EQTIDAAR

He'll be saying that the race should be voided next because the outcome did not in any way meet his prerace bollox.

Technical problems come to the rescue.

Someone's pulled the plug!

Massar was the 2nd coming

Think he’s done his b*llocks there

He has got nothing correct so far today, he talks a lot thou.

Is he wearing a 'ladcrookes' jersey? Usually a giveaway as to which way his bread is buttered.

another aftertimer

He seems to have given up on last month's fashionable Sire dosage theory.

I wonder what he'll turn to next?

Perhaps getting his sleeves rolled up and doing some hard graft. No, that wouldn't suit.

He’s right about Oisin Murphy’s tactics there though.....

straight after the race is not the time for extreme analysis. He basically does what he accuses other people of doing. Watches the race once and decides bad ride on 2nd

I was on the winner. But there’s no denying the 2nd would have won if he’d stayed in the middle of the track....it’s been clear on all races on the straight course you don’t want to be anywhere near the near side.

OM had the front runners dropping back to avoid obviously and then the horse edged right. Wasn't really feasible to track RM through either. Just lost a close one on the nod, it happens.

I think Murphy wanted to get a clear run and delay his challenge as long as possible. In doing so the horse has rolled towards the rail. If anything he hasn't asked the horse for everything quite soon enough.

Yup in hindsight you could say that. The fav found plenty though. JW talking like they are driving cars and you can put them where you like. Any time a jockey gets beat a SH he probably thinks he could have done something different, but it certainly wasn't a howler for me.

Wasn’t a howler by any means. He made a choice and it didn’t work out for him. A couple strides past the line he was about half a length up....but that’s just racing.

A right bunch of cretins on there today, then again you can say that every day, a lot of villages missing their idiots, mute on all day

And as for that Alex bloke, what a complete and utter pillock

And Angus Mecoatup is another bluffer

And the Dixon brothers are professional Northerners and talk utter bowlocks

And dont start me on Nevison or that Dave Yates

If Willow's theory was right, then surely Murphy's mount would have been beaten out of sight on the worst ground not staying on so strongly that he was a length up on the winner soon after the post, ffs!

when wilo is on i need to have a large bong beside me only then he becomes manageable

is Tony Calvin any good?

he's crap

but had a nice double figure winner last friday w/d