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ouch the 1000 layer was very unlucky there
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WASN'T ME AL
![]() ![]() ![]() ___________________________________________________________ 2018-01-20 12:47 114093864054 2018-01-20 12:26 GB Ascot 20th Jan / 12:40 1m7f Juv Hrd Comm Charged 2.9% On Net winnings of GBP105.8 - - - (3.07) 21,673.58 2018-01-20 12:47 114093864054 2018-01-20 12:26 GB Ascot 20th Jan / 12:40 1m7f Juv Hrd / Nayati Back 1.71 150.00 Won 105.80 21,676.65 _____________________________________________________________________ MUST'VE BEEN ONE THE MUGS WHO PICK UP PENNIES, IN FRONT OF STEAMROLLERS ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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i laid winner.
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Someone ask Doziac how much did he lose on 6th jan?...3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th.
the man that never loses most know the % goes down when you lose...done his bananas. ZODIE THE FORUM MASTER OF ILLUSION WAC. |
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OH DEAR ,,, IVE SENT GOBBY WINKLE IN TO MELTDOWN AGAIN
![]() ![]() ![]() YOU KNOW HE'S SEETHING ,, WHEN HE GOES FOR HIS COLORED CRAYONS ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!
TAR ![]() |
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at least i aint got to pretend...
zodie the monkey man..gon bananas. |
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Someone ask Doziac how much did he lose on 6th jan?...3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th.
the man that never loses most know the % goes down when you lose...done his bananas. ZODIE THE FORUM MASTER OF ILLUSION WAC. pathetic man. ![]() |
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POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!
TAR ![]() |
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3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases
![]() what a pathetic individual you are. go polish the pretendee Bentley ydc. |
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If you owned a Bentley why would you make a **** of yourself on here daily ?
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POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!
TAR ![]() |
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cos he's a embarrassing attention seeker craving forum adoration...
3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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47 monkeys running around the 5 acre gaffe..
wafdsc. |
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keep bumping my thread doziac like a good little sycophant..
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aye permanent caps lock, pretend cancer, fantasy lifestyle
says it all a complete 4rsehole |
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![]() 3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases |
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I wonder how much he had to deposit on the morning of the 7th? Maybe he could post his deposits/withdrawals statement to clarify this matter?
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no mouse..unfortunately that is kept surreptitious for obv reasons.
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doziac vanished?
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Horse Racing > Ascot 20th Jan : 1m7f Juv Hrd Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections
Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Nayati * 1.98 55.00 Back 54.00 Nayati * 48.95 31.00 Lay -1,486.48 Oistrakh Le Noir 2.56 25.00 Back 20-Jan-18 12:44 -25.00 Oistrakh Le Noir 190.00 0.15 Lay 20-Jan-18 12:44 0.15 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 29.00 Lay subtotal: -1,486.33 Market subtotal: -1,457.33 Commission : 0.00 Net Market Total: -1,457.33 First loss since the 2 fell at the last aswel in leopardstown back in December |
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Very unlucky.
If that's the only time you loose, then you won't be losing much. |
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*lose
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Wonder what the statistics are like on the first 2 falling at the last
as in (1 out of so many races) |
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WTF, shades of yesterday!!
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shouldn't have happened for another 10,000 races they rteckon
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Lasted a whole 27 hours for it to happen again
Safe today tho ![]() Horse Racing > Thurl 21st Jan : 2m5f Hcap Chs Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Cappacurry Zak 3.80 5.00 Back 21-Jan-18 15:47 -5.00 Cappacurry Zak 3.80 5.00 Lay 21-Jan-18 15:48 5.00 Head Turner * 124.59 15.61 Back -15.61 Head Turner * 27.66 34.21 Lay 34.21 Nobody Home * 44.85 9.91 Lay 9.91 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: -20.61 Lay subtotal: 49.12 Market subtotal: 28.51 Commission @ 4.7%: 1.34 Net Market Total: 27.17 |
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"true odds prob 10,000"
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Well dodged RL.
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3rd time lucky
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ProSniper 21 Jan 18 16:07
"true odds prob 10,000" what were they then? |
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Tbf, 10,000 would seem fairly generous.
If you consider that the top jocks fall/unseat at the last 0.15% of the time, the odds would be around 666-1. http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/01-February-2017 |
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looked beat to me
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Pointless to speculate above the ceiling price(plenty high enough)
Computing fair/accurate odds for such an astronomical chance is nonsensical. Without significant data to estimate either way, those 10000 odds could just as easy be 20000, 50000.. |
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Thats harrys weekly profit gone according to his book thats how much he makes in a week ha ha.
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Oistrakh Le Noir had to slow down and run wide to avoid the fallen horses and jockeys, otherwise he would have won comfortably instead of losing by a neck.
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Et Moi Alors and Harmonise were not hurt which is the most important issue.
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2 horse to go at last hurdle is at least 50/1 x 2 = 2500/1
the 4th left 6-7L down on run in is easy a 8-10/1 chance (hence the 2nd went 1/16) 10,000/1 was conservative..true odds was higher. |
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Two juveniles to fall at the last, both having their first run over hurdles, side-by-side, all out, on desperate ground, would be shorter than 50/1 x 2 imo. Closer to 20/1 x 2, I'd say.
It's only a gut opinion though, since such horses rarely find themselves fighting out a finish on that kind of ground. The best evidence I can offer is what happened yesterday, and hindsight, of course, isn't much use when it comes to actually putting your money down on the day, as they approach the last. |