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Emaraaty 1-45 newbury sat
Emaraaty 1-45 newbury sat
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Replies: 151
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running in a class 5
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£3,752 up for grabs
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From the Dewhurst straight to a novice at Newcastle, what is going on there?
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He sent Enable up to Newcastle, I'm also confused.
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Correct Holywell, he did do didnt he.
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He still has the Guineas entry, maybe Gosden has decided just to give him an easy race as a prep rather than risk a hard one in a recognised trial.
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On first inspection, most will say it's a point and shoot job, and it may well be, but disect the form and it's not exactly awe inspiring. The form on his debut hasn't worked out well, of all the 15 other runners only 3 have won since, and egg and spoon races at that. The race he won (albeit very easily) only 1 of the other 14 runners has won since, again a poor race. I know he looked really useful when he won, but he finished almost last in his next race, although it was the Dewhurst. Opposition to him is sparse, and he could win 5L, but I wouldn't be backing it at 3/10.
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Hang on, hang on, we need to get our gallops man on the case...Come in domino12...
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The genie appeared within 2 minutes when I rubbed the lamp last night.
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His lead horse is Jawwaal who I suggested as a lay the other day as he is too keen and finds zero. Emaraaty is in a different league to him, but he also is a very free going horse and connections are keen to try and get him to switch off. Rated 109 there isn't many races to run him in, and the 7f classic trials would be a bit too sharp for him, and he would probably be a bit too free for a mile. He runs in a novice as he is eligible and the stiff 7f will suit him, but at 3/10 you are not really getting much in the way of value and his lead horse hardly ran a race that would inspire confidence. Personally I don't like the horse, but the key is to get him to switch off and give him confidence with a win. Will he win, probably, would I back him at 3/10, most definitely not. I kind of hope he jumps out too well to drop in and pulls Jim to the front and ends up setting it up for the Johnston horse who ran to 84 when winning at Redcar last season and gets 5lb from the Gosden horse and if it's just improved 10lb from last season, I doubt there would be little between them and if the Gosden horse pulls hard again, he could end up finding himself getting beat. 5/1 the Johnston horse each way is an ew bet to nothing and I would chance him, don't like the fav, it's very keen and one of these Bridle Monkeys I don't like. Granted he has the best form and should win, but he represents zero in the way of value.
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Cheers domino
Racing with the choke out didn't stop him at Newbury and that made the win all the more impressive imo I did wonder about him physically at Newbury as he did look a bit on the light side. Whatever, hard to take it as anything other than a negative that they're taking this route with him, but maybe it's all part of a Gosden master plan. |
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He won't be running in the Guineas if that's what you're trying to figure out. Expect he'll go to France as running round a bend will help him settle better, and he wouldn't get within 10L of Roaring Lion so would be pointless running against him.
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'would I back him at 3/10, most definitely not'
so..will you be laying? |
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jamesdean
18 Apr 18 20:25 Joined: 15 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 12,778 | Blogger: jamesdean's blog Correct Holywell, he did do didnt he. no too far now  |
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will dot up or bomb out imo..
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18-Apr-18
21:11:41 20:45 Newcastle Emaraaty - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:122742793953 | Matched: 18-Apr-18 21:58:35 Lay 1.35 100.00 35.00 100.00 Matched Last night, drifted a bit since. |
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only concern is newcastle can get anything beat and gosden not quite sparkling..but opposition arnt much..gl
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@Willie
The Johnston horse ran to 84 last season and gets weight from the Gosden horse. With normal improvement it should run to at least 90, which doesn't give the fav much margin for error, given it's best figure is 96 and ran 94 when winning it's maiden, despite it's flattering OR of 109. 5/1 the Johnson horse looks solid ew for me. Just couldn't back the fav, regardless of whether he wins or not. |
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race is dire and mj horses very hit and miss.
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Thanks willie, i really only have one running for me, the MJ filly receiving 5lb who could run down the fav late on if it's not right, but it's more a fun bet with limited loss. After the race, there could be a lot of punters saying that was the best 1.43 shot this year.
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i'll say make all hard hld or last
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becoming a backable price now
got it in las leg of a L15 with 3 other shorties at Newc wont put a dent in my recent loses so not aftertiming, but I could do with it winning. |
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gl
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1.61
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Gosden has taken good ones to newc before, thinking Enable.
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Cuddington and Mabbs Cross double being lined up. Dave Armstrong special.
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Cuddington wasn't cheap at 115,000 euros, and he caught the eye on debut, looks like a sizeable, rangey sort, who was very green on debut and was lugging left, but he ran on well at the finish and hit the line strong.
Not seen since August and moved out of Dascombe's yard to Dods. Tight Lines impressed when winning her maiden at Redcar, travelling strongly and easily drawing clear. I'd say both of these have potential, so disagree with Willie about the race being dire. Though whether can they're up to beaten Emaraaty is another question! |
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*beating
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Runway looks excellently priced in what is going to be a weird run race?
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Yes George, I was at Haydock that day, the horse also fell out of stalls and wasnt sure it was liking the ground. Obviously quirky but some ability, Armstrong's best horse from same stable runs tomorrow, which I though was interesting
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The MJ filly is going to want further, so encouraging she was able to win over 7f in the style she did, though wonder why she wasn't seen after July.
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They are lumping on it now
Reckon Willie shafter has his wallet out on this one |
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Wow! 1.35 - 1.61 - 1.2
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At 1.23 ? I've gone for the lay
goodbye muney  |
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never pre emp the market..
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Reckon Willie shafter has his wallet out on this one
last time willie backed one pre race was just after the falklands war ... |
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Layed in place @ 1.08
Only has to fail to place 1 in 11 times for the bet to be profitable....still 'Goodbye more money' |
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I've had £100 4 place on Cuddington @ 1.44. Think that first 4, is better value than half the price on the jolly to win.
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1/5 not for me
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bolts up
very impressive |