sis offering prices IR

Interesting.  It was always going to be only a matter of time before someone started to profit from sticking GPS on to horses.  Didn't quite think it would end up being delivered in quite this way, though. 

Will take a massive sea change from the way bookies handle in-running bet placement currently to make it viable for them.

As you say, logic dictates that pics *should* be speeded up accordingly.  He even spoke about the need for minimal latency between pricing and pictures himself.

might be state of the art but they've obviously never heard of basic proof-reading! 

could be good news in a sense that they will have to speed up the pictures .

as the guy mentioned in the film that the prices will have to be in sync with the pictures , if the picture speeds are the same as now, the bookies will get picked off by track players or people on the track telling people what to back in the bookies via mobile phones  .

agree it's very interesting, if the coordinates and speed are transmitted in real time they will have to relate to what we are watching otherwise we'll be backing off maps!

The suggestion that bookmakers would offer in running prices for the public to bet on and improve the latency of the  pictures they relay to their customers is the most laughable notion I have ever read. The same bookmakers who will do anything to avoid taking bets on anything they cannot arb or have built in guarantees of profit such as FOBTs. The prices would be derived from live data , the only way this would ever happen is if they knew they had the public at a disadvantage , speed the pictures up my ar5e. I would  bet on them slowing them down , and anyone on track who could possibly nick value would soon be banned, I reckon 2 winning bets in a row would see you on the list , but the bookies know who they are anyway cos they own the exchanges and have the data on everyone. Remember bookmakers only entertain losers and under no circumstances tolerate anyone who even threatens to win, speeding up pictures and offering prices in running, many would rip them a new one so no chance of that happening .

Not if their in running prices were offered at 20% lower than available on the exchanges and they could guarantee a profit.

I think you are underestimating the potential power of the data, MST - and that will only get better as horse profiles are mapped more.

More chances to get knocked back during a race.

Even in its most fantastical 'pipedream' all this is doing in sanitising the market further where the price offered is as close to reality (minus margin) as is possible.
Why would anyone choose to bet as there would be no value?

Its just like all these 'innovations' the exchanges have thunked up, the IR sector limps along losing blood until one day it will wheeze its final breath and collapse.
The sis guy having a wet dream is talking to the share price of a company trying to sell something to a sector.
The provide pictures, slow ones.

placing a bet in running via staff in a shop would be an interesting experience

£1000 on no3 at 4/7 please,

what time is it running ?

its the live race

20,40,60,80........980,1000

its 1/3, you can have £17.33 on

ah ok i'll leave it thanks

Dusty - As I alluded to in my first post, the way they currently operate will not work with this.  End of. 

On your second point, I completely agree, but since when did bookies rely on punters betting with them who appreciate value? 

Your third point is probably true (3b, really), but I'm pretty confident this is the way it will ultimately actually head.

If it's not the bookies buying the data, someone else will for their own gains.

It looks whimsical to me, sis will trumpet it, put a price on it, it will get knocked down considerably when it wont fit into the bookies operations and then as you suggest perhaps it will go on the cheap to a private body.
Who will then no boubt further the end of IR as did the X-bot sent the sector into a tailspin that resulted in the markets looking like a 70s Beirut highstreet.

MST , a passionate reply.

we can only speculate and comment on what the SIS guy says in the video . he says that prices will be in sync with pictures and that they will be value to the punters without the bookmaker having their pants taken down .

it wouldn't take much effort for the bookies to scrape prices from here and offer them at 20%-30% lower , in conjunction with what the data they produce from the tracking devices .

they will probably close betting 1 furlong from the finish or something like that .

FWIW, I don't disagree with you about the ultimate end game for IR punting here.

PF - If the data is real-time, you know exactly the speed and positioning of those fighting out the finish, plus the speeds that those horses have been able to achieve previously, why would you need to close the market so far out?

Blimey thats some bot you got in mind Latalomne
If you were taking it to the nth degree there though you would have to add in the integrity of jockey, trainer and feelings of horse on the day I suppose
Then after all that you could scoop up the few quid thats available

As I interpret it, Dusty, that's how SIS is talking about delivering the odds (save for your added elements! ) - through the use of an algorithm.

latalomne, my thinking behind that was so they don't get picked off late in the race .

but I see your point .

the only way I can see this coming off is if fobts are restricted . they will then "probably" use the fobts machine for this . I can't see it working where you have to place bets behind the counter .

might be an online product though

It had never crossed my mind that they'd use it in shops, TBH, PF!  Interesting!

Having not been in a betting shop in years, do they offer a full range of in-play opportunities there now?

I think they do for tennis , football , golf , cricket .

they dont offer out-play opportunities.

This is bound to go down about as well as cold sick with the bookies imo

Guess it all comes down to price.  Their bottom line is a function of turnover (as evidenced by the fact you can bet on literally anything).  Anything that increases turnover, increases the bottom line. 

If my interpretation is correct, the online books would effectively be doing nothing other than the initial integration with their own product and then the settling (which they're already doing anyway).

I think they do for tennis , football , golf , cricket .



Hmm, 5f hcp at Epsom slightly different to 72-hole golf tourney or 5-day Test match tho (imho) 

betting terminals offer a full range of in play bets.

The product would be meaningless without both the appetite to put money up in a market (bookies) and those that bet could do so in a fast moving market, where all factors have been equated and cleansed right down to an efficient odd.

I've always failed to see the optimism about the potential of getting more people interested in racing.
The old timers are dying out who cared about the sport based on a limited offering from their youth and a more romantic process with which they might have felt they stood a chance. The rest of the people bothered with racing either do it as a passing interest or are those who came to it for profit based on the exchanges.
If the technology minimises still further the area to profit from misplaced perception of value then why are they even going to continue?
People are invested in other sports because they either played them at some point or supported a particular team....not many really support a horse that they couldn't recognise in a field of other horses.

Duncan , i never mentioned horse racing there did i ?

I think the way "we" view betting is perhaps different to that of the general populous.  I find it difficult to comprehend, but apparently a lot of people gamble for fun without any inherent expectation of winning..!  Look at bookies' odds on any in-play event.  Saw one over the weekend in the final of the snooker where Hamilton was 1.005 with 365 and 1.03 here...  People are presumably still betting in-play with bookies on other sports.  While I don't really see why it should attract new blood to racing, I don't necessarily buy that it will be sanitised prices that will put them off!

True enough, but we don't live in a land of plenty where most have so much available cash and not enough opportunities to spend it. Just adding more potentially available moments in time, that in effect have no value in em since the price is about the chance it has in happening, won't result in more turn over IMO.
Bookies will see the cost implications first above imagined profits.

SIS in-running is another non-starter from a deluded SIS management team. We've had to endure the Spanish football fiasco, cameras strapped to the hare at dogs, the loss of Towcester due to the pig-headed belligerence of one man and now this ill-considered nonsense. I witnessed it at The Excel yesterday at it was embarrassing. SIS full of technical types with no betting industry knowledge any more. A sad decline now irreversible.

well said, crackthefat.

I haven't viewed/read the pieces above yet but I had heard about it already. I wonder if owners have to take the GPS on their horses because I would like nothing more than to fk SIS by refusing - pretty much as they have refused to speed up pics.

impossible scenario unless its done with 1 click operation.

Feb 9, 2017 -- 11:08PM, mark9 wrote:

impossible scenario unless its done with 1 click operation.

Agreed.

The Fear - Interesting thought!   If the BHA was to buy into the integrity angle, I guess it would be pretty easy for them to make it a rule of racing that it had to be carried.

Imagine the dystopian scenario where an official calls in a jockey because the computer determined a particular horse had 'x' amount of energy left and didn't run to its computer calculated odds.
They'd be dropping like many clouds.

Actually it makes me wonder, if all this tech did get implemented and every horse had a sterilised price through out the race on all the determining variables and at no point did the odds of the winner reach the highs of odds on the exchange, then couldn't we have an absolute to compare against and the argument used in the VLV fiasco would apply and the bets scratched?
Thats a can of worms right there.

Not sure I follow your logic, Dusty, TBH.  Wasn't the VDV voided because the Exchange database should not have accepted the bet to begin with because the layer did not have the requisite funds in his account?

crackthefat
09 Feb 17 22:39
Joined: 12 Mar 02
| Topic/replies: 3 | Blogger: crackthefat's blog
SIS in-running is another non-starter from a deluded SIS management team. We've had to endure the Spanish football fiasco, cameras strapped to the hare at dogs, the loss of Towcester due to the pig-headed belligerence of one man and now this ill-considered nonsense. I witnessed it at The Excel yesterday at it was embarrassing. SIS full of technical types with no betting industry knowledge any more. A sad decline now irreversible.

How was it embarrassing ? Did you challenge them about it ? Did you ask about picture speeds ?
Easy to make throw away comments but some substance would be nice.

Latalomne, I seem to recall some disclaimer about palpable error.
Well if there becomes a constant with which all races are measured then all odds above that constant could be determined to be palpable errors.
What this initiative is doing is taking guess work out of the equation until such time all odds will regress to it, anything wildly above it would end up being folly and people would quickly stop offering them IMO.

They "likened" it to a palpable error but very definitely attributed it to a technological failure:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2011/dec/30/betfair-voler-la-vedette


The statement came from Stephen Morana, Betfair's interim chief executive officer. It said: "On Wednesday 28 December we had a major issue with our Exchange. We know how frustrating this is for our customers and again we offer our sincere apologies to all affected.

"This note summarises all that we know of the issue, with all of the facts laid open. The race in question was of course the 2pm at Leopardstown, won by Voler La Vedette. The race went off on time and there were no issues with the bets struck on the race before the start.

"During the race, one bet was placed, and allowed onto the Exchange, laying Voler La Vedette for £21,474,836 at odds of 29. This would have left the customer with a maximum liability of close to £600m.

"This bet was placed by one of our UK customers trading the race via our API or Application Programming Interface (bdp.betfair.com/) using an automated program (a "bot"). Their bot had developed a fault causing it to try and place a very large number of bets on the Exchange. These bets were large in size and mispriced. As you know, the Betfair system is designed to prevent customers betting unless they have the funds to cover their maximum liability. In this case, the customer had less than £1,000 in their account so none of these bets should have been accepted.

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"However, due to a technical glitch within the core exchange database, one of the bets evaded the prevention system and was shown on the site. This was an issue that was triggered because of a unique sequence of events that had never happened before.

"The race continued and Voler La Vedette won. £822,614 of backers' stakes were matched of the customer's bet, resulting in a potential liability to the customer of £23m.

"Once the race was completed, the market remained suspended such that no bets were settled and an investigation started. We identified that this was an isolated incident specific to one account, which we immediately suspended. There were no further issues reported on any other markets on site and the site therefore remained open for business as usual.

"At 4.41pm on the 28 of December, we announced that the in-play markets associated with this race would be voided due to technological failure in accordance with our terms and conditions. This is similar to the 'palpable error' rule enforced by other bookmakers in the past.

"We had to void both the win and place markets and, to be clear, we would have voided the race regardless of who had won and whether or not we had suspended these markets sooner. This is because the bet in question had significantly impacted both markets. We did not void those bets placed before the off because they had not been affected by the bet.

"The Betfair technical teams continued to investigate the details of the fault and, having identified the issue, worked on putting a fix in place which was applied at 10.15pm on 28 December. Following extensive testing, we can confirm that there have been no subsequent occurrences of this fault and we've taken steps to prevent its reoccurrence in the future."

The statement added: "We have been criticised for not having suspended the market earlier but in reality, while our market operations team did realise that something had gone awry, the procedures they had in place dictated that specific checks needed to be made prior to suspending the market; hence the delay in suspension.

"Again, I would like to clarify that the account in question has no commercial relationship with Betfair other than being a customer. Our reputation has been built on integrity and we have been pioneers in the industry in ensuring that betting is carried out in a fair and transparent manner. By making the voiding decision, I can assure you that this decision was not taken lightly and that we have implemented what we believe to be the fairest solution in these truly exceptional circumstances."

you get the impression that sis wanting the horses coordinates to produce IR odds for bookmakers is possibly spin, maybe they fancy they can write bots to cane the BF IR market, particularly in the few furlongs on track, maybe even seed the market and lay weakening horses before anyone one else can detect the slowing down of a horse

*last few furlongs

Arnt sis being squeezed out of the LV contracts one by one?
If they are then they might be grasping at any straws they can.

RUK side are looking at this too, though. GPS and suspend market well before end of the race.

TheFear 10 Feb 17 15:37 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 3,808 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
RUK side are looking at this too, though. GPS and suspend market well before end of the race.

What have you heard about RUK ?

Same thing that they have tested GPS for in running. Not for Betfair for bookmakers. In-play massive on other sports but racing missing out obviously. Think they are just talking about bookies being able to offer bets for first few furlongs.

And I wonder who'll be doing what with the data as the race pans out to its conclusion.... 

(which is far closer to what I imagined would happen when I first saw this day coming)

GPS in the saddlecloths ffs

What happens if a jockey unseats the horse in the lead when clear 2 out. Loose horse go 1.01..
2nd horse clear of the remainder, what price

Far too many unkowns. Will get as far as the supposed in running boths the bookmakers were going to be having in their shops years ago, still waiting

booths

James when something new comes along there are opportunities. You have identified one before it starts.

Anything that would boost IR appeal is welcome imo.

Very few young people have any interest in horseracing, but if they could market IR as skill based rather than luck, they could snag some of the poker crowd imo.

Keep that one to yourself, Howard. This time next year..

Yes and they get away from what put people off. Loads of form study/non-triers.

Good point, James!

Jocks will have to have little pouches sewed into their silks or breeches.

Doubt betting will get as far as two out. Early in the race the bookies can have someone monitoring surely. It is our best hope for speeded up pics. But it might end up like the tennis where the live scores go to the highest bidders,,,

I just watched a race on SIS by the way. You couldn't see the jockeys heads because it was split screen with a dog race that wasn't even off. They are beyond clueless.

April Fools Day come early, WALOFS...

when a there is a stoppage in a football match do the goal bots just keep going as if nothing has happened?

knowing the real time relative speeds/positions of horses say in the home straight at perth vs punter opinion watching ruk? the opportunity is with the select few getting the data

ttt

Interested did this become a reality, did SIS ever speed the pics up to near live and the bookmakers relayed these to customers and offered in-play betting in sync, only asking because I briefly watched BLV for the Chester Cup last week and it didn’t feel very live and in sync with reality, I would say they transmitted pictures from the moon in 1969 with better quality and latency.

more chance of Leicester City avoiding relegation this year tbh.

Correct unhappyhibby and if they did it would be at hideous prices

That GPS feed is commercially available (from TPD).  If it were possible to use it to reliably and accurately model IR prices, then surely people would be using it to put those prices up on here (with a few percent haircut) and making reliable money?

But if that were the case, IR markets would be massively liquid - which doesn't seem to be the case?

longbridge, plenty are using it and making money, but not at the expense of those who won't be fleeced, hence ATR tracks totally unplayable.