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Mark Johnston ruins betting on horses.
Mark Johnston ruins betting on horses.
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Replies: 77
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The Flat Earth Society..just signed in i see
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Is this the Flat Earth Society that can back up his point of view with fact rather than just ranting ideas that are backed up by nothing more than industry cliche's.
You need to give a lot more than that to be considered credible. |
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his last 8-9 below 12th oct,won, no qualifies since,
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as a vet and a trainer with so many years experience he is utterly clueless
Over 200 winners per season for the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of around 16% would tell you different. How many trainers would like those figures? I dont like his manner but then he probably wouldnt like me either. He looks and talks to the public like they're a piece of rubbish, Ive seen it with my own eyes at the races. But can he train racehorses, absolutely. What people on here forget is that he doesnt exist for punters to make a profit out of the game. He's got his Porsche and aeroplane to worry about!! |
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well perhaps he should take more care of punters.
No punters..no betting...No Racing ..No Porsche..No Aeroplane |
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Johnston's job is not to take care of punters. He doesn't do anything detrimental to punters. It's up to you and everybody else to evaluate the chance of each horse and bet accordingly.
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Yes, Johnston has got a bad attitude towards punters and punting. He virtually said some weeks ago that people should go racing to enjoy watching the horses and should not get involved with the punting side of it. What an idiot!
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allways trying?
anyone know his goodwood wins to runs compaired to his season wins to runs |
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Last 5 Seasons - by Racecourse
OVERALL GB FLAT -- PROFIT/LOSS ----- 2YO Only -- PROFIT/LOSS Ascot 25-274 9% -63.47 5-66 8% -45.88 Ayr 18-158 11% -90.00 9-69 13% -45.43 Bath 14-63 22% -0.67 3-17 18% -7.17 Beverley 65-282 23% +15.27 13-79 16% -33.81 Brighton 12-81 15% -23.52 3-29 10% -21.61 Carlisle 23-138 17% -8.93 7-41 17% +3.58 Catterick 29-142 20% -34.96 11-63 17% -34.61 Chelmsford (A.W) 24-145 17% -25.71 11-51 22% +13.79 Chepstow 7-37 19% -3.90 0-9 — -9.00 Chester 40-276 14% -29.72 15-78 19% -13.55 Doncaster 18-197 9% -111.16 8-77 10% -36.74 Epsom 16-141 11% -59.25 6-30 20% -10.75 Ffos Las 1-19 5% -16.13 1-6 17% -3.13 Folkestone 3-7 43% +2.41 0-0 — +0.00 Goodwood 46-280 16% +116.12 16-81 20% +7.49 Hamilton 51-224 23% -12.37 17-65 26% +15.11 Haydock 34-268 13% -34.42 10-86 12% -50.13 Kempton (A.W) 41-349 12% -134.06 12-95 13% -44.85 Leicester 18-141 13% -50.22 8-58 14% -13.34 Lingfield 3-37 8% -20.75 1-11 9% -4.00 Lingfield (A.W) 60-413 15% -139.21 8-52 15% +4.00 Musselburgh 55-268 21% +1.15 19-77 25% +15.96 Newbury 12-94 13% -20.63 7-38 18% -4.13 Newcastle 12-85 14% -25.13 5-33 15% -5.75 Newcastle (A.W) 5-37 14% -9.64 3-23 13% -12.64 Newmarket 31-252 12% +24.21 14-90 16% -9.27 Newmarket (July) 45-235 19% +49.14 10-68 15% -33.29 Nottingham 16-136 12% -53.29 10-62 16% -3.79 Pontefract 32-193 17% -65.21 9-59 15% -33.98 Redcar 14-104 13% -29.27 3-36 8% -26.80 Ripon 35-201 17% +8.83 11-50 22% -9.02 Salisbury 3-28 11% -11.00 3-12 25% +5.00 Sandown 9-108 8% -71.79 5-31 16% -13.59 Southwell (A.W) 48-200 24% +2.35 8-34 24% -14.11 Thirsk 9-112 8% -62.85 4-36 11% -21.35 Warwick 3-19 16% -7.63 2-4 50% +2.38 Wetherby 2-5 40% +8.10 1-2 50% +0.10 Windsor 8-63 13% -23.28 3-16 19% -2.40 Wolverhampton (A.W) 103-554 19% -125.66 13-117 11% -71.72 Yarmouth 15-83 18% +51.05 4-19 21% +59.73 York 14-258 5% -131.40 6-102 6% -62.90 PROFIT/LOSS Ascot 25-274 9% -63.47 5-66 8% -45.88 Ayr 18-158 11% -90.00 9-69 13% -45.43 Bath 14-63 22% -0.67 3-17 18% -7.17 Beverley 65-282 23% +15.27 13-79 16% -33.81 Brighton 12-81 15% -23.52 3-29 10% -21.61 Carlisle 23-138 17% -8.93 7-41 17% +3.58 Catterick 29-142 20% -34.96 11-63 17% -34.61 Chelmsford (A.W) 24-145 17% -25.71 11-51 22% +13.79 Chepstow 7-37 19% -3.90 0-9 — -9.00 Chester 40-276 14% -29.72 15-78 19% -13.55 Doncaster 18-197 9% -111.16 8-77 10% -36.74 Epsom 16-141 11% -59.25 6-30 20% -10.75 Ffos Las 1-19 5% -16.13 1-6 17% -3.13 Folkestone 3-7 43% +2.41 0-0 — +0.00 Goodwood 46-280 16% +116.12 16-81 20% +7.49 Hamilton 51-224 23% -12.37 17-65 26% +15.11 Haydock 34-268 13% -34.42 10-86 12% -50.13 Kempton (A.W) 41-349 12% -134.06 12-95 13% -44.85 Leicester 18-141 13% -50.22 8-58 14% -13.34 Lingfield 3-37 8% -20.75 1-11 9% -4.00 Lingfield (A.W) 60-413 15% -139.21 8-52 15% +4.00 Musselburgh 55-268 21% +1.15 19-77 25% +15.96 Newbury 12-94 13% -20.63 7-38 18% -4.13 Newcastle 12-85 14% -25.13 5-33 15% -5.75 Newcastle (A.W) 5-37 14% -9.64 3-23 13% -12.64 Newmarket 31-252 12% +24.21 14-90 16% -9.27 Newmarket (July) 45-235 19% +49.14 10-68 15% -33.29 Nottingham 16-136 12% -53.29 10-62 16% -3.79 Pontefract 32-193 17% -65.21 9-59 15% -33.98 Redcar 14-104 13% -29.27 3-36 8% -26.80 Ripon 35-201 17% +8.83 11-50 22% -9.02 Salisbury 3-28 11% -11.00 3-12 25% +5.00 Sandown 9-108 8% -71.79 5-31 16% -13.59 Southwell (A.W) 48-200 24% +2.35 8-34 24% -14.11 Thirsk 9-112 8% -62.85 4-36 11% -21.35 Warwick 3-19 16% -7.63 2-4 50% +2.38 Wetherby 2-5 40% +8.10 1-2 50% +0.10 Windsor 8-63 13% -23.28 3-16 19% -2.40 Wolverhampton (A.W) 103-554 19% -125.66 13-117 11% -71.72 Yarmouth 15-83 18% +51.05 4-19 21% +59.73 York 14-258 5% -131.40 6-102 6% -62.90 |
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^ It reformatted twice. -
from Left ... OVERALL: Wins - Runners - Percentage - Profit/Loss ... Then - Same for 2YO ONLY |
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Juste Pour Nous in the first at Donny tomorrow - cumulatively beaten 136.25 lengths in last 3 outings, last of 8 the time before that - poorest runs all over 12f,now back over 10f and 3lbs lower than when 2nd over CD back in April. Fanning rides even though Johnston has two other runners in the race.
Can't back it because it's run shocking races three times in succession, but just the sort of his that bolts up inexplicably i.e. he's not asked to explain and does n't volunteer an explanation. |
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would you back it at 999-1? If so we know what you are and are just haggling about the price.
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not even looked at the prices on here, not my mo - merely highighting the horses profile although to be fair Fanning may be riding because it's easier for him to do the weight...
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2 runners tomorrow 8st 9lbs below ,donny newbury.
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Rease, I haven't looked at he Johnston horse you refer to, but your quote "just the sort of his that bolts up inexplicably" would make no sense if indeed this horse were to bolt up based on what you have stated.
A horse that can't win because it is too high in the handicap, runs over a trip which it doesn't get, thus well beaten, and thus falls down to a handicap mark that makes it competitive. Now races over it's correct trip, possibly more suited to going/track etc. This is the very basis of reading form. Nothing inexplicable at all. |
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To be honest he is a figure head, what does anyone actually think he does?? With circa 240 horses that amounts to spending 2 mins per horse "training" them.
He basically puts a team in place, they do all the day to day, someone else does all the entries, someone else does the schoozing with owners, he has a team of vets. He keeps the arabs sweet, goes the the races and perhaps takes an interest in the top 10% of his horses. His raw figures and strike rate of 16% are pretty good. However other stables seem to have horses slowly build form with improved runs and then slowly go off form as time progresses and their rating creeps up or they get in better races. It is the in out nature of performances that irks punters. There seems to be lots of examples of horses finishing last, then a week later, in a similar race it was win hard held, or vice-versa. I personally dont know if it just seems common with this stable due to the volume of runners he has or whether the stats support he has a higher proportion of these types. |
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To be honest he is a figure head, what does anyone actually think he does?? With circa 240 horses that amounts to spending 2 mins per horse "training" them.
He basically puts a team in place, they do all the day to day, someone else does all the entries, someone else does the schoozing with owners, he has a team of vets. He keeps the arabs sweet, goes the the races and perhaps takes an interest in the top 10% of his horses. His raw figures and strike rate of 16% are pretty good. However other stables seem to have horses slowly build form with improved runs and then slowly go off form as time progresses and their rating creeps up or they get in better races. It is the in out nature of performances that irks punters. There seems to be lots of examples of horses finishing last, then a week later, in a similar race it was win hard held, or vice-versa. I personally dont know if it just seems common with this stable due to the volume of runners he has or whether the stats support he has a higher proportion of these types. |
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It's a horse that's looked blatantly out of sort and even out of love with galloping Rease IMO
If you take out mdns since 2008 MJ horse won lto or beaten less than 2l have shown a profit at BFSP of 2% after max comm |
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if you look at those from this group that have never run at the trip (distance exposure is a massive factor with this yard) the return to BFSP is 16.8%.
So horses that ran well lto outside of mdn company (ok you might not agree with my variable parameters but had to use something) have actually proved to be far from erratic for the punter with regards their value and if you look at the mroe unexposed ones at the trip this is enhanced further. For an erratic yard that apparently has so many that don't back up run to run this would be very strange indeed. |
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Similarly as stated earlier on this thread horses well beaten last time out (I classed as 10l+) do not have a bias or extra propensity from this yard to bounce back out of the blue. Of course some will but If you want to see trainers who really do this pretty well there are a few listed earlier in thread on one of my posts, I've found no evidence that supports this with Johnston's runners.
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* I should have clarified the group i was looking at was aged 3yo+, I'm not a massive follower of 2yo's regards punting.
This is certainly not supposed to be a vindication of backing all of his older horses that finished within the distances I've stated, but merely to refute the idea that there is some erratic streak that is to the detriment of punters with this yard of horses either bouncing back from nowhere or not enough backing up a good run lto. If anyone wants to use their own data and parameters to suggest otherwise I'd be interested to see it. |
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Now he has a heavily-backed FAV, Comedy School - in a 2yo Listed Race ...
- and it is the First horse to hit 1000.0 'in-running' An absolute nightmare 'trainer'. |
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comedy school
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Comedy trainer more like. Pathetic run that no punter could have predicted.
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yeah the appleby horse ran poorly too but don't mention it.
a class 3 winner into a listed event at the back end of the season people will be in tears when this one is winning a decent class 2 hcp over 8-10f as a 3yo  |
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a 78 rated winner where many of the others can't get into the race but guess what let's go straight to the MJ horse
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Any other horses in the race backed from 5/1-2/1 and bolted up the last twice?
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Who backs them?
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Charlie!
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Dawaa
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previous race 27L last of 12
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Op spot on. Some on here defending the indefensible I'm afraid. As I've said before, they win when they want to win. We are but vulturous voyeurs to this ceaseless banquet.
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If Dawaa was typical or the strike rate for horses btn 10l or more or 20l or more lto was significantly different from other trainers no one would be defending anything.
But as always on this forum a couple of examples come along and it's all the proof needed for some on this forum that the yard is a nightmare. |
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Horses in hcps like Dawaa today that were beaten 20l+ lto for this yard strike at 7.4% if anyone wants to do some actual research to see how this fits in with other trainers they would see that this notion these suddenly revive more often than they should after a defeat like this is simply not true. I can keep saying it and others can keep moaning every time a horse with poor lto from wins.If you are looking out for something and have a pre determined view you will always look for the occasions that back up your stance even when the facts over all dictate otherwise.
Since BFSP the Betfair market has predicted 53 winners for these horses btn like this lto from 650 and before today 48 had won.They aren't winning at any significant rate above other trainers and they aren't winning above the market expectation. There are many more runners that fit this category than many trainers due to the bulk of runners and I'm sure it's this fact which often gets stuck in peoples minds as though the % rates are not extraordinary in any way, there are far more runners making the occurrence seem more frequent. |
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My post Probably a little over stated on reflection. It was Marsham star that cost me today. Had andock rolling up with king of Naples and a few others. Not cost me massively, but it's uncanny the number of times one of his has popped up in a race, at a price, where from a form point of view the race has largely otherwise worked out to the pound.
Large number of punters essentially saying the same, but not about many other trainers. My view on it is largely observational and anecdotal and not based on stats, but it seems to happen time and again, and has been doing so for a long time. The difficulty in assessment of this stable is the undoubted lack of consistency, which can't always be attributed to other factors. |
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Mark Johnston Nursery runners (NOT first 3 in betting):-
1/1/13> 20/9/16: 2-186 (1%) ...winners @ 7/1 & 15/2 21/9/16> 22/10/16: 6-25 (24%) ROIBF + 407 (..inc 50/1)  |