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Paul Kealy is the table topper with + 39.25.
Seven others are in the black.
Ii ends on Thursday October 20th.
My aim is to (theoretically) win it.
Todays nap is Pipers Note, Ripon 6 45.
Vitavox
Seven others are in the black.
Ii ends on Thursday October 20th.
My aim is to (theoretically) win it.
Todays nap is Pipers Note, Ripon 6 45.
Vitavox
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Surely for this to be feasible you should have started the same day as the rest of them, in which case you could have been on -£50 for all we know!
These nap thingys aren't easy, just ask Skinto! If you don't mind me saying, you seem to have a thing about these tipsters, are you an ex-journo who's been pushed off the gravy train! |
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i agree with George about the naps table, makes no sense to start now. either that or you are trying to prove your worth to go down the paying route. more likely imho
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Im a wannabe journo trying to get ON the gravy train..
V. |
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PIPERS NOTE is a Ripon and Beverley specialist, and has won here 4 times. Its best run this season was l.t.o.in the Great St Wilfrid when 4th of 20 in that Class 2 handicap over 6 furlongs. That was 6 furlongs but PN is effective over todays 5 furlongs as it recorded its best speed figure over that distance at Beverley in 2015 when winning the Laurent Perrier Evening Of The Horse Conditions Stakes with todays favourite Sylvanus over 6 lengths back in 6th. Sylvanus is 13 lbs better off with Pipers but I still prefer the latter - weight in the saddle as a winnerfinding concept is over - rated imo.
PN has a few spots in hand of these on the clock, is in fine form, will love the good ground and will outclass this 0-95 opposition. The fly in the ointment could be Roger Varian's Imtiyaaz who comes here from Listed company and could conceivably prove tough to beat from a good high draw. V. |
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Ritas Boy for me
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WD
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Well done
So if we're starting you off on -50, I make that around 80 points behind Paul Kealy |
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WD Vita
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Pleased with that. Ta Everyone.
V. |
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what is rp naps table steaks ?
how many bets a week ? |
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George.B / Vitavox
Current mean average of tipsters naps is (£14.81). A fairer starting point in assessing Vita's performance, perhaps? Just a thought |
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The Naps competition is a Press competition between 42 scribes and the winner is the one who returns the greatest profit to £1 stake, one selection a day settled at SP. Postdata (RP) won it last year with a profit of £30 plus (33?) and Paul Kealy currently leads with £38.25. I am 5th with 6.50.
Its highly prestigious and worth £4K to the winner. V My selection will be at Carlisle in the second half of the card. It is a good question as to whether I am advantaged or disadvantaged by jumping in late. Given that in a months trial, proofed to Lee Mottershead via Email, I made 12.5 % profit and in 'D Phil Takes On Segal and Kealy (on here) i made a 12.3% loss over a month, level seems a reasonably fair place to start. I had seven weeks to make up 38 points on PK - its not an easy task to take on. |
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7 50 Carlisle, 0-60 1m 3f.
Not keen on 0-60 basement races but the form of MOON OVER RIO shown in its latest effort gives this 5 y.o mare trained by Ben Haslam every chance of recording a third career win. As the name suggests the sire is Captain Rio and the rain that has fallen during the day will help his daughter as her wins have been on good and soft ground. MOR ran a good race first time out when third to Astra Hall (and im relieved that the second there has been withdrawn from today's race) but her best effort was when third to Calliope. L'Apogee and Graceful Act were well beaten that day at Thirsk but have both come out and won since. High On Light was second there and has run against a couple of today's opponents and Moon Over Rio has done at least as well as any of the others against it. My choice had a 'wide trip' that day and from the middle of the pack today should not lose any ground and indeed its a platform for Graham Lee to make all if he chooses. MOON OVER RIO is not a time selection - that would be Ryan The Giant's second to Templier - but that was 1m 6f and its against the fav that it is coming back in trip. There is much in my choice's favour today and she looks a bit of value. V. |
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Eborman 31 Aug 16 12:
Current mean average of tipsters naps is (£14.81). I think you've forgotten the minus sign, Eborman. |
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Oh sorry, didn't see the parentheses!
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always find it a bit odd when someone who has posted just 48 times in 12 years decides to suddenly show an interest in a thread like this or vitavox. makes me wonder
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Vitavox, I'm afraid you're breaking the rules of the competition!
Those guys in the naps comp have to have their naps submitted BY 4 pm THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON! With no betting forecast (unless they've done their own) and only a long range going forecast to guide them! I'm afraid we're not on a level playing field here  But good luck with your pick! |
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Good evening dealer
No conspiracy  Now at an age where I have more time to spend reading this forum,as well as the RP Lots of knowledgeable people on here and as I have said before - never too old to learn ( earliest memory is backing Polyfoto to win the Nunthorpe) |
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you missed the good times then, sadly the place is only a shadow of its former self, apart from a few there isnt much to read unless your enjoyment is latching on to some of the liars, fantasists and wannabe alpha males.
my apologies if i got you wrong and good luck |
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Dealer
Thanks for good wishes I already have quite a large number of "blocked users" |
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In fact, if Kealy is selecting under The Weekender banner, is he having to pick some from the 5 day dec's?
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The Naps competition is a Press competition between 42 scribes and the winner is the one who returns the greatest profit to £1 stake, one selection a day settled at SP. Postdata (RP) won it last year with a profit of £30 plus (33?) and Paul Kealy currently leads with £38.25. I am 5th with 6.50.
Its highly prestigious and worth £4K to the winner. a bet the 4K is in free bets with T+C,s  |
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Todays nap is Graceland in the penultimate race at Chelmsford. What about the opposition?
According to my figures the Prescott horse is moderate , West Coast Flyer and Sarsted have roughly the same chance having finished 1, 2 on Kempton's AW surface and in common with Tenzing Norgay are 0-85 types without having reached class par times. GRACELAND, on the other hand was 6th in last year's Melrose (proving she gets this 1 mile 6 furlongs) and distinguished herself here at Chelmsford on April 28th over a staying trip when she got within 3.75 lengths of the subsequent Northumberland Vase winner Dannyday. Her speed figure there (repeated on other occasions) gives here the edge on time and if you are not convinced about the form Haines was 11.5 lengths adrift and Masterpaver, who was 7 lengths behind Graceland won its next 2 races back on turf. Loius Steward was the last jockey to win on her and he is an essential component in the case for her as his record on her is very good and he was on board when in her most recent run she ran the useful Dubka close. It is noteworthy that Graceland runs best when upped in trip - her win was over 1.5 miles, upped from 1.25 miles. Today she is upped from 1.5 miles to 1.75 miles. Its a double figure price.. V. |
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I don't know if it's as early as 4pm tbh, but doubt it will be much after 6!
You made the point in your reasoning yesterday about the rain that had fallen during the day, obviously up-to-date betting and ground is not something Kealy has the advantage of when deciding his nap, but by posting 10 mins before the off, you did! Good luck with your pick today. |
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Its a fair point well made George.
I am going to ask for some time the night before to study the form (and the weather forecast!)and give myself a deadline of midnight, if that's ok.. Its a bit of fun - its not as if I'm gunning for the pot after all. V. |
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Btw, I don't know if you know this, but there is a naps competition on the your comps forum.
Division 3 up to the Premiership, promotion / relegation at the end of each month. If you're quick you could join division 3 today! Apparently it's the toughest naps comp out there and only the cream rises to the top! |
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I was only being mischievous btw, if you're posting winners we won't mind what time you post
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Yep, keep posting Vita!!
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Can I talk about Jockeys?
Back on the HiFi Forum there were a couple of 'Hot Potatos' eg., cable 'sound'(yes cables make a difference to sound quality, (alledgedly)) and I wonder if its similar on here with jockeys.. I am the last person to blame my poor judgement on jockeys (and I have seen that often enough in betting shops) but I have been watching a top class Irish jockey very closely this season since I saw him give a 3 y.o. a nightmare ride (or did the horse give him a nightmare ride?). PAT SMULLEN. If you have RUK or Bet365 reviews take a look at the Dante again and the performance of PS and Midterm. The Stoute 5/4 shot took a very keen hold and was simply uncontrollable (or uncontrolled) and was destined to lose after 2 furlongs. (I didnt rate his form and laid it so I was especially keen to see how it was going early, never having run in this company before.) I know it was diagnosed with a hairline hip fracture, but PS has given Convey a similar type of ride where he was unable to settle the horse. Ryan Moore has won and been 2nd on it and Smullen was last of 6. Another example is the form of Forge under Smullen, (6th, Group 3), Ryan Moore (2nd Group 3) and Richard Kingscote who won on Forge at Haydock today (admittedly only a decent conditions event) and looked very good in the process. Anyone else got reservations re Pat Smullen? What's the arrangement with Stoute? Or is it that Smullen gets a particular owners horses handled by Stoute? V. |
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Another good selection, unlucky, the intimidation didn't help.
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cracking pick vita, best of luck with the project
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I have just seen the result not the race. I had £24 win Graceland, £4 place on here . Win odds were up to 19. (3.5 a place) I knew horse and jockey must place - together they have been 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 1 (latest position first). This was the weakest race its contested since the Melrose 2015.
Blown now of course.. Onwards..to tomorrow: My nap is APRICOT SKY 3 55 Haydock. Preamble: my approach is not just to find winners but to find losers. When I look at a race I start from the bottom up i.e., bottomweights first. I can usually eliminate a good proportion of the runners and then I end up with a shortlist of inform horses in the grade. In favour of Apricot Sky is its CD record which is excellent- it has won this particular race in 2015 and 2014. Soft ground is not a problem so the weather forecast is in my favour. (It was G/S last year). Recent form is excellent as it ran my Pipers Note to less than a length in a better race than this at Ripon. Only a few days ago, you say, - will it have recovered in time? Oh yes - last year its prep was only 6 days before the race when it was down the field. This year it has a v.g. prep going in to the target race instead of a duck egg and the interval is comparable. Market opposition centres around last time out 0-70, 0-75 calibre winners (Bosham, pron. Bozzam, and Orient Class)which will be brushed aside though a danger exists in the recently rejuvenated Masamah - now with R. Fahey. Masamah was 0-100 class in its day and could be backed pushing my price out. It recorded a 58 when second to Hilary J, 3 spots slower than AS's latest figure (61) As well as having a class advantage Apricot Sky has a speed advantage as the Pipers NOte reace was run only 0.5 seconds per mile slower than the best of the day. You know its trying for its life, its in the form of its life and its the fastest horse in the race. What you might call Nap material.. V. |
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Well, Apricot Sky ran a stinker. Confidence was ebbing away as the day went on and the forecast rain failed to arrive but it was still disappointing how badly it ran. Perhaps the race came too soon after a season's fastest run (ie it bounced down); maybe the ground was riding too fast - we will never know.
In such cases, Tom Segal argues in this week's Weekender, we should give it another chance. He gives several recent examples (Platitude, Lightning Spear, Kilmah) of horses 'running inexplicably poorly'and 'bouncing back' to win. He concludes 'forgiveness ..(is) the key to good punting'. One such horse is SQUATS. Last time out Squats ran very poorly at Newmarket (4th of 5 behind Oh This Is Us) when going off 5/2 favourite (having drifted markedly through the day), in stark contrast to its smart second to Librisa Breeze in the Gigaset International (SP 33/1). (I backed it in the Gigaset at a huge price on Betfair on the basis of some good form from 2015 despite a 23 rd out of 26 in the Victoria Cup.) On this occasion I think we CAN hazard an intelligent guess at why Squats ran so badly - it goes well fresh. Last year Haggas left around 35 days between its runs yet last time out the gap was only 7 days. Today it returns to the track after a 34 day break. Ryan Moore takes over from the apprentice Georgia Cox (who I cannot fault, btw) and this horse runs its best races at todays venue - Ascot. So, let's see if we are right to forgive Squats that bad run... SQUATS is my selection for the Naps comp. but I am hopeful rather than confident.. V. |
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Squats finished well into 4th with an unclear passage.
Today we visit York and having scanned the 2 40 and the 5 10 - both possibles for me - I've decided to pick one from the 6f handicap. This is a 0-95 and the going is going to be soft. I'm looking for a classy horse that's performed well in similar or better company, ran well l.t.o., is from a reputable stable , has done a time and acts on the going. Lady Clair and Dark Defender are 0-85 material without class par times, Paddy Power is held by Flying Pursuit, Siluette has no recent form, Lagenda is trying a new trip (tnt),and Belledesert is penalised for a small field 0-80 win in the slowest time of the day. That leaves two horses: Laughton and Flying Pursuit. There are 2 main reservations about Laughton - the trainer has nurtured this horse through the grades in impressive fashion, and it has answered every question so far. But (1) today it tackles 6 furlongs (stretched from 5) and (2)it has been kept away from soft ground all season and today it is tried on G/S for the first time. As a son of Acclamation (from the Royal Applause family) it is unlikely to act as well on it..., whereas FLYING PURSUIT is by Pastoral Pursuits, who goes back to Bahamian Bounty, and has a soft ground pedigree and is proven on the soft. On time Laughton is a 60 which it has recorded in its last 2 outings and FP has a 61 and a 63. FLYING PURSUIT has to be the nap - everything points to it. Except one thing - it ran poorly in the Shergar Cup on good to firm and the 3rd and 4th have let the form down since. But prior to that, the Mont Kiara form has been upheld by Priceless (who was just ahead of FP),who subsequently ran 3.25L and a neck behind Ridge Ranger and La Rioja in Listed company. V. |
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Flying Pursuit touched off by a Jim Crowley mount that appreciated the going enabling it to reach a PB. That's the way it goes. Reinforces my view that the Shergar Cup is not good form. I dont think there has been a single winner from the card.
Who was it sang 'I hate Mondays'? Well, those are my feelings at viewing a bunch of Brighton 0-60s at 4 in the morning. However, I may have found something at what Alistair Down would call 'a working man's price' - Its called INVADE in the fillies 0-75 sprint handicap at Brighton. I have a difference of opinion with Topspeed as to her speed figure: he has her 8 spots off the the top and I have her at or around the top. When she won her 0-75 fillies handicap at Chelmsford I awarded her a 54. Now Topspeed doesnt register AW speed figures when the race is on turf and that's why his MO doesnt highlight my filly's chance. That's a weakness imo. My weakness is Invade's best times have been on artificial surfaces. Admittedly her turf figure isnt that great but her best piece of AW form matches anything in the race bar Symposium (arguably). That was race 1237 (Raceform, Weekender), a 6f 0-80 at Lingfield on the Polytrack where she was 3rd to Elusive Ellen (subsequently 2nd in a 0-85)with Glastonberry behind her and Pixeleen a further nose back in 5th. Pixeleen has gone 2,2,3,2,2,3 all 0-80s and one 0-90. If, and its a big if, Invade can translate this form to turf she can beat this moderate lot. Not a certainty but its the best I can do on a drab Monday. She has nothing to fear from Pink Martini whom she holds on her latest run (which was turf) and she can only improve for the experience and the run, having been absent for 106 days. V. |
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Invade was a non runner due to the change in the ground (to soft).
Today I focus on the 4 00 at Leics - a 7f handicap to be run on forcast g/s going. The 3 y. o. so-called weight advantage has all but disappeared over this distance but the bias towards 'unexposed' and 'progressive' 3 y.olds remains. Hence Spotlight and Timsform (see Betfair.com) bith heavily lean in the direction of Michael Stoute's Musdam here. Equipped with a first-time visor Musdam ran a good second in a 0-94 at Yarmouth (SF56) but, imo, that is slightly behind oldtimer Bertiewhittle's 2nd in a 0-100 behind Certificate at a Grade 1 track (Doncaster). The winner that day has gone in since franking the form and the time was good giving Bertie a 55 at these weights. I would weight a speed figure slightly higher in a higher class race and that brings them level on time At 8/1 BERTIEWHITTLE is the value bet and today's nap selection.(I only get SP of course in the Naps comp. Rowan Scott, the claimer on board, is useful and looks to have triggered a revitalisation in David Barron's charge. v. |
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Furd.
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Today I nap JAN SMUTS 5 05 Car. Wor Lass is fav. but JS has beaten it recently and WL is penalised 12 lbs. Another Loncolnday is slow, Bell Weir is held but Wynford is an unkown quantity. I'd rather have the proven form of an old timer than the 'potential' of a 3 y.o. Jan Smuts ran a good 3rd to Gold Chain here at Carlisle on August 1 with Medina Sedona just ahead of it - thats good 0-85 form in this 0-75. I would prefer it was 2 miles but it is a stiff 1m 6f round here. v.
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