Racing Post/Coral Naps Competition

It goes against the grain, but I'm tipping the jolly today. Its Musharrif in the 4 05 Beverley.

Musharrif showed improved form behind Singeur at Doncaster l.t.o. Proof of that is that Seamster and Ziggy Lee who finished in front of it at Thirsk in August were behind it in Singeur's race. Also that Doncaster race was a deep, 13 runner 0-85 and this is a 0-75 at lowly Beverley.
The speed figure was good as Singeur ran the fastest race on the card adjusted for class and MUSHARRIF hasnt gone up yet for that good run - though it is raised 1 lb in future handicaps. SF 58

Drawn in the lower half of the draw at Beverley where there is a bias to the inside gives my nap every chance of recording its 2nd win of the season.

Best of the opposition could be Socialites Red who ran above himself in first-time headgear l.t.o in similar company but has a wide draw to contend with today. Its slightly ahead on time however (59), and shouldnt be underestimated.

Vying for favouritism is Kevin Ryan's 3 y.o. Dance Alone but the bare form of its maiden win leaves it with plenty to do against these hardened pros - though, as a plus, it has the red box (trap 1) and a 7lb claimer on board. If it doesnt lead the apprentice's inexperience will count against the combination in what could be a barging match in the final furlong.

Salvatore Fury is on a hat trick but that means its gone up in the weights and wont have met a horse of Musharrif's class in those races.

Flicka's Boy is visored for the first time but has been beaten in this class and by some of these so that's hard to fancy  from the 9 stall. Oriental Splendour cant win and Jaarih lost a seller last time out (though I see the handicapper has taken a positive view of the form by raising it 2 lbs in future handicaps and Topspeed rates it on time).

MUSHARRIF has form, time and class credentials today that outmatch those of its opponents so, with reasonable luck in running, it will go very close.

V.

wd

Well done

Thanks Delta and GB.

Today we set ourselves a harder, but potentially more rewarding, task - solving the 5 20 at Ayr.(Soft)

The first thing to note is that Jim Goldie will consider this race his private property being an Ayr specialist and no matter what form he is supposed to be in his horses will be right for this. He is mobhanded..

Lotara won on a  synthetic surface but the time was very poor (wouldnt win a seller);
Go Go Green has gone 6,8,6,8,5 and it would be a surprise if it could beat these, some of whom are 0-80 types;
Star Cracker is the best of the local trainer's trio. SC returned a 60 in a soft ground 0-65, but was arguably better when 5th in a 0-85 last time out in a race that contained Singeur (winner since), Silvanus, Seamster and Apricot Sky (placed behind Pipers Note). This is a big drop in class and imo this should be favourite. I think it will be well backed.

I give Henley a chance - but I backed it recently when I thought it should have won and it showed zero resolution. The winner of this race will have to fight off some serious horses for the grade who go in the ground.

Malaysian Boleh looks threatening (to some who think weight a big factor) at the bottom of the handicap but its down there because its  0-65 class.

Showpal, on the other hand has won a 0-70 and rates a 54 on time. Off the same mark as last time.

Sarabi has an even classier result - a 0-80 win in the soft. The downside is a lowly 45 speed figure.

ONE BOY is another horse who has been contesting better races than this 0-70 but it comes with a more solid profile than some of the aforementioned. Viz. It has a 0-85 third, a 0-80 3rd (one place behind Singeur and 2 behind Stranghow, both winners since) to its name (0-75 4th latest) speed figures of 58, 55, and 53 in the soft this season and its latest run, though not its best on paper, was franked by the good 2nd of Socialites Red yesterday behind Musharrif.

Going back to 13 June it had Musharrif one place behind it and Oriental Splendour in front of it (winner n.t.o.). Going back even further to sApril 30th (and this wont be in the RP) check out this soft ground 6 furlong 0-83...

Kommander Kirkup
Best trip (winner n.t.o)
Casterbridge
Duke Cosimo
Kenny The Captain(won 2 or 3 since)
Cosmic Chatter (second to Highland Acclaim lately)
One Boy 7th
Orion's Bow (multiple winner and runner up Stewatd's Cup to Dancing Star).

(Of course OB is much improved, but there it is one place behind my selection.)
ONE BOY is a sporting long price selection but I anticipate a PB and if it does what I know it can do it can win this, even though (it must be said) it finds winning difficult. Maybe an EW interest is the 'sensible shoes' option..

Vitavox

Since I got the RP this morning it has come to light that One Boy has gone to Paul Midgeley from Richard Fahey. This in no way dimishes my confidence that One Boy will go very close (if the sraw turns out to be favourable.. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride (obviously for the first time).

V.

Jim Goldie might consider he has some obligation to try to win it, but he's 0-25 with his runners in this race. The nearest he got to winning was with Go Go Green 3 years ago. That was the last time the race was run on soft ground, and the first 3 home were drawn 17,16,18. Go Go green was running off 69 then (and was put up 9 lbs for being beaten - in a draw race! - well done handicapper). GGG is off 58 today, but he's in 4, and doesn't seem to be in form. I'm sure you wouldn't have Show Palace on time/class, but he's always run like he's a class above his opposition when on soft, (and Emily Weber is very good on these sort of races). Good luck with your pick. We'll probably have no idea about the stands side until this race, unless someone is brave enough to try coming across for one of the round track races, and that could depend on how wide they have the track today.

Jim's 3rd nearest miss in this race was with Star Cracker last year.

One Boy was gambled down to 6/1. Finished well in 3rd. For the rest of the meeting it has to be low numbers on the straight course at the moment.
Re One Boy it shoul;d be noted that its due to go down a lb in future handicaps. It might be worth looking at its entries in the near future.
V.

Tomorrow the nap is BRAZTIME 1 30 Ayr. has the best credentials of those that have run, its last run has been franked and it will be suited by the seventh furlong. I dont rate Naval Warfare - Prerogative who was just behind it at Ffos Las has struggled to win a maiden in 3 arrempts since and has merely mirrored the slow time Maths Prize (the winner) did that day.

V.

Braztime taken a walk in the market. One more run for a mark..
V.

My resorting to a 2 year old maiden race for the nap today was a response to the difficulty of coming up with something from the large number of handicaps on offer. I spent a long time on the Ayr and Newbury cards but it was too difficult. And then there's the draw to contend with in the sprint handicaps at the major meeting...

A number of gambles (some landed) was a feature of the first day of the Ayr Festival. Euxton was a headscrather (cheekpieces first time) because it did not have the credentials to win a race of that calibre. We used to call that a 'job' in the old days.
In connection with the 2 gambles in that sprint (One Boy was the other) I note that both horses were drawn low. This was the first sprint of the meeting so, except for the evidence of the penetrometer, which did show the bias, nobody really knew for sure if there was one. But whoever was betting these 2 horses must have been pretty confident of where the best ground was. I suppose someone could have walked the course.

Why cant Ayr Racecourse provide a level playing field for all the runners and their connections? You have the track, a constant, rainfall which falls over the whole track and an irrigation system which covers the whole track. Is it beyond the maintenance staff to get the penetrometer the same across the track? The bias was the other way apparently last year. Why?

For day 2, knowing the bias, the trainers are then given a draw and can choose their number and so their chances are reliant on being first in the queue rather than their ability to bring a horse to the race in peak condition.If they are last in the queue they have no chance. For the pundits and punters they have to wait for the whole scenario to unfold before they can have a bet - antepost is out of the question - unless you are forewarned of the bias or, dare I say it, involved in its construction and even if there is no 'foulplay' what's to stop employees of the course sticking their walking sticks in the ground for the two weeks leading up to the meeting and using that info to make some tasty wagers.. Information to which regular punters have no access.

V.

Of course, those 'in the know' about the state of the track can only profit from the first race run on it as after that it is common knowledge; and, 2, they still cant have a bet until the draw is made as they wont know which horses are to travel down the favoured side. So there is no question of antepost betting.
V.

I thought Braztime was interesting upped to 7f buy maybe the ground didn't suit or the stable form could be better (apparently only has 2 winners from their last 100 or so runners).

*only had...

GB - Yes Hannon is in a slump but this horse had an interesting profile and Im not averse to bucking the trend as you get better odds. The writing was on the wall early doors as Braztime drifted like a barge. Hannon has to be left alone and I can add Ruth Carr to that list. Barron has sprung to life with winners like Handsome Dude who had shown zip but then win handsomely - we could call it a 'Mark Johnston'. (All down to the virus your honour..)

Ayr Gold Cup day and 4 tremendous meetings. It takes me 2 hours to study a 12 runner field so I am overloaded on a Saturday.

My procedure on a Friday night (when I start) is to select my target races (sprint handicaps and middle distance handicaps up to 1.25 miles), pinpoint with a marker any horse who rings a bell as a furture winner or short price loser and go from there..
Having failed top come up with anything I have gone with a 'jockey title' related selection - ISHARAH 4 10 Catt.

Silvester D. S. takes the mount for the first time and Pyman in a recent Post highlighted the fact that Mark Johnston (Isharah's trainer) was instrumental in SDS's title bid in 2015, providing him with a number of winners late on in the title race. That augurs well for a bold bid here at Catterick now that it gets to try a longer trip - Johnston excels with 3 y.o. stayers.

Apart from the eyecatching jockey booking, Isharah has some splendid credentials of its own - its a 3 y.o. and has a tidy weight allowance , it has good recent form behind a known quantity in Swahbuckle  who has been running well, remains on the same mark, and the time of that Ffos Las race was the fastest of the card (adjusted for class). By contrast many of his rivals are either slow , on the downgrade, or both. Two exceptions are Wishing Well who is next best on time and has some good placed efforts to its name and the ever-dangerous Sir Mark Prescott's charge O'Connor's Girl - another 3 year old stretched in trip.

On time I have

Isharah 45, 47, and 53
Wishing Well 37
O'Connor's 29
Dominada 27

Vitavox

Mark Johnston failed to get the job done yesterday (Iaharah), despite the betting portents looking favourable. He has never been a favourite trainer of mine, I am dubious about the son  (what is his role and how much influence does he have?)asnd I dont like the OXO profile of the stable's runners. E.G., Yalta. He is the only tainer you can back if his horse has finished in the bottom 3 l.t.o. What does that tell you?

Jumps today so I am a fish out of water. I do the jumps in season however, so i had to dig out the Jumps Raceform. Quickly scanning the Plumpton racecard I have picked out BALTIC STORM in the opener.

In contrast to one of Johnston's this novice hurdler has gone 32312 and the second runner up spot was achieved here at Plumpton - so Charlie Mann has chosen a course the horse knows for his reintroduction. That's a positive.

His last two races were achieved in the fastes race on the card, adjusted for time and the going is much like what this horse faced last season. The trip is fine and Baltic Prince gies well after a break as his win followed a 112 day spell on the sidelines.

In today's Post you can see how progressive he has been by the increased 20L margin he found over Deadly Approach.

The opposition looks weak : Bleu et Noir is a 5 y.o. novice as well and has only achieved  firsts and seconds in D novices (ie the same kind of form as my horse) but has to give me 21 lbs); Tell The Tale is coming from NH flat races; Kabanga bay was 100/1 and fell last time out and Civil War has failed to beat half the field in its last 2 races.

BALTIC STORM is a confident pick.

V.

Withdrawn horses destroyed my evens yesterday and i end up a 1/3 winner. Better than a loser of course..

My lead into today's racing is via Graham Rodway of the Racing Post. (Whenever he tips one up I'm straight on to it for 2 reasons : he will shore up the price of his selection; and, secondly, he is neither aware of time, nor thorough in his form research. Consequently I oppose him wherever possible.)

Graham selects Champagne Bob in the 5 o'clock at Leicester. GRod argues that C. Bob is back to his winning trip and now off a mark 1 lb below his last win (in the soft).
Also, 'he finished an excellent second..in the Grey Horse race at Newmarket'. That was a good run in a 0-80 - a cut above todays 0-65/0-70 company.

The problem with C. Bob is that Greys race is largely untested (the winner Syrian Pearl and the 5th and 6th have not run since) or been let down (the 3rd and 4th were 7th and 8th n.t.o). The speed figure is alright (50) but there is another runner who can match that figure and has done a time comparable with it on 3 other occasions. So its more likely to reproduce it. I am talking about dual 0-70 winner

DIAMONDS A DANCING.

DAD has changed hands but this has not diminshed its form as it was 3rd in a comparitively quick race l.t.o and McCain puts up Adam McNamara in an apprentice race. Trip and going suit and so does the 5/1 or so likely SP.

As for the rest l.t.o. Lunar Deity was beaten 12L, Pytoclastic 10L, Firgeove P. 10L, Elegant Annie 15L, No Refund 10L and Bold grove carries 6lb ow. Hardy Black is slow and Barista was 5th of 7 and 20/1 in its previous race.

V.

Oops, it is Richard Birch who tips up Champagne Bob in 'Betting Advice' - Graham Rodway pens 'The Edge' in today's RP.
Understandable mistake as, if you take a look, they have identical styles and identical criteria.( They both home in on handicap mark amongst other stuff and this is mentioned in each of their write ups today.) They could be the same person.

V.

My chances scuppered by the weather yesterday.  Richard Birch must be disappointed with his selection Champagne Bob, who DOES go in the soft yet finished out of the numbers.
V.

5 45 Beverley. Amateur Riders, 1m 2f. Good, g/f places.

The mantra in Ladies races (and amateur in general)in recent years has been - back whatever Miss S. Brotherton is riding.

From what I have seen some of the other amateurs have caught up but old thinking may still prevail and so shore up the price of her mount here - Mister Marcasite.

I colour code my formbook and green stands for the slowest races of the day (usually one or two). If you win one you are a penalised slow horse and if you are beaten in one you are a slow horse with poor form. So, according to my system they can't win. Mister Marcasite is green, and so is Graceful Act, Rainford Glory, Gabrial's Hope and Thello. Adherence has been green in a race but also yellow (my colour code for a fast timer on good ground or firmer); but this is not its trip so is ruled out.
Bollihope has a good rider (Joanna Mason) but is held by the trio who finished 1,2,3 in the Lady Jane Bethel Memorial Handicap for Lady Amateur Riders over this CD on July 26th - I'm Super Too, Rubis and Lean On Pete. This race was run in fast time (and so is coded yellow)and Raceform attests 'the pace was sound' to confirm my opinion. It was run 5.3 seconds per mile faster than the opener on the card where Aneedh (another of today's runners) was only 4th, earning itself the dreaded 'green'.

The form of the Lady Jane Bethel is in and out. Lean On Pete has run badly (5th, 12th and 7th)I'm Super Too has gone 2nd and 6th and the 4th that day San Cassiano has run 5th, then won. The clincher is Jersey Jewel who has unseated rider, won and been 2nd in a higher grade (0-70).

I think overall the form is ok.  Rubis, a three year old filly,is the one to take out of the race as it has since gone on to run second in a reasonable time to Intalza at Hamilton, proving it has at least maintained its form and as the other two (I'm Super and Lean On Pete) are 9 and 7 years old it should improve past them. Its up 2 lbs in the handicap but that is offset by Miss E. Todd's  inability to claim the 3 lbs she took off I'm Super Too's back on July 26th. (Maybe it was that win which meant she failed to qualify for the allowance.)

Emily Bullock, rider of RUBIS, stills claims 5lbs is a very capable young jockey, and she is entrusted with steering my nap home.

V.

Rubis was second yesterday to Lean On Pete, who reversed the form from their earlier CD encounter (see above).

Today I turn to my old friend GRACELAND. 4 20 Goodwood.

I backed her the last twice and got a good run for my money. She stays this 1m 6 furlongs ( which she proved last time out on the AW), has excellent speed figures and is well up to this grade (0-95) having run third to Dubka  in a 0-100 at Salisbury. Although Perestroika (the second at Salis) has seemingly let that form down, the 4th Bess Of Hardwick has won since  and the 6th Vive Ma Fille has been a runner up. Dubka has also won since. So Graceland was taking on a decent filly in Dubka who has now run up a 4 timer.

Of the opposition it should be noted that Elysian Fields was behind my filly at Salisbury so is held, Daphne was runner up in a weaker race and only gets a 42 speed figure, Renfrew Street disappointed last time out and comes from a race whose form is untested . Saumur I can give a decent speed figure to but its win over Moojaned has been devalued by the subsequent placings of that Davis Evans horse - 5,9,7,5,7,14,3.

That leaves Engage who will be favourite as its trained by Sir M. Stoute and ridden by champion jockey elect Jim Crowley (soon to be Stoute's stable jockey?). However, the 0-90 fillies race she contested l.t.o. was slow and Myopic, who was second to Engage's 4th, was well beaten next time out.

The Goodwood course will be something she hasnt seen before and that could catch her out but she is faster than these (61, 57,60), arguably better class, stays the trip, is ridden bt her regular pilot L. Steward, and if it rains she will be well suited to it having proved herself on the soft and having Montjeu as her maternal grandsire.

V.

Unlucky again,  your on one of those runs .

One thing i will say for you , your excellent at identifying false favourites.

Thankyou Desperado - I try hard to find them. I laid Minding against Jetsetting, and Air Force Blue (was it the Guineas?). One I got wrong was Golden Horn. According to my speed figures it went backwards after the Derby. I opposed it in Ireland when it swerved, bumped a rival and kept the race (controversially). I backed Found there which would have got the race had it been France. But when Found beat GH I wasnt on! Bah!

I think that was Graceland's big chance but she fluffed her lines at the death. It was 7 on Betfair just before the off - great value.

Looking for today's stumer as we speak..

V.

Its been a struggle today to find a value candidate with credentials in all 3 areas - class, form and time. No surprise there because its quite rare to find all three, well four (inc. value) in one horse.

I' ve found a race populated by horses whose form looks ok on the surface but with a dig around looks exceptionally weak. Its the 1.5 mile Class 2 handicap at Newmarket. Happily, Paul Kealy picks Frontiersman in this so I am tilting at my old adversary - nothing I like better (its like Formula 1).Paul says 'there are plenty of improving handicappers' in this race. I dont think so.

Starting with Frontiersman:

Last time out F was 4th of 5; only beaten a couple of lengths but the second and third have let this form down; it has only won an E maiden. Should improve for the trip as it has Ouija Board as a mum.

Appeared won  0-85 but was only 9th n.t.o, so has questions to answer. Varian trains so may have been suffering from a virus. Could come back but this is a tougher race.

Higher Power has a 0-85 win to its name but the 3rd Demonstration has been appalling in a number of subsequent runs. Again, this requires a big step up - HP was only competing for < £5K.


Man Look is up 4 lbs for losing, and

William Hunter, though on a hat trick following a 0-90 win and trained by the excellent Alan King,had Renfrew Street behind it and that has not advertised the form with 2 defeats since.

Zamperini won £7K in a 0-92 at Sandown but has 2 more furlongs to cover. The time was nothing special and it has gone up 5lbs. Ryan Moore rides which will ensure there is money for it helping the price about

SHAKOPEE.

An 'in and out' performer trained by Luca Cumani, Shakopee was, nevertheless, only beaten in a photo by Barsanti in a Class2 0-105 handicap over this trip at York. If you can forgive a thrashing over 2 furlongs further in the soft, then SHAKOPEE must be a leading contender here. It looks the only horse in the race who is in the grade. The Barsanti time was pretty ordinary and I hate tipping horses with no standout time but it still compares quite well with this lot.

Let's hope Shakopee is on a going day..!
Its 7/1 - that would escalate me up the Naps table..
V.

Its not only Paul Kealy who tips one up in my race, but also Graeme Rodway, who goes for William Hunter - 'a strong traveller who looks a step ahead of the handicapper' p13.

He goes on to say (William Hunter)shrugged off a 5 lb rise (for a Brighton win)when following up..at Ascot last time. That form is untested..'

This is a howler from GRod as Renfrew Street, the second at Ascot, has run  5th of 6 and 8th of 8 since. Its very much been tested and found wanting.

Vitavox.

I see 2 horses Shakopee would have beaten have come out of the 4 50 at Newmarket, so reducing my price by over a point. Also the possibility of a decent EW bet has been reduced by there being only 7 runners.
I think this is entirely reasonable as Bookmakers make a substantial and valuable competition to our sport and I wouldnt want them to be shortchanged by some shrewdie nicking evens a place. Just wouldnt be fair now would it?

V.

Hats off to paul Kealy who got Captain Dion home at Ponte and Frontiersman at Newmarket. The latter impressed. Buick, his rider,speaking on RUK,  explained that, with the one eye, and hemmed in against the rail at Sandown  l.t.o Frontiersman wasnt able to show what he can do. If kept to suitable wide open tracks this superbly bred (Dubawi/Ouija Board/Cape Cross) colt has more victories in store. Time will be interesting.
Shakopee disgraced itself with a thoroughly bad attitude in the preliminaries. Squiggle awarded. Difficult day for winnerfinding.

V.

Evening George

Morning Shane

I see we didn't have to wait long for Iberica Road to come good.

Today's selection runs in the 5 05 at Haydock - a 0-90 rated mile handicap to be run on good ground.

David O'Meara usually has strong contenders over this C and D ((e.g., Treasury Notes) and both his runners today (Fort Bastion and Rousillon) warrant attention.

FB caught the eye with a strong finish behind Morando at Ayr and looks well handicapped as it is off the same mark, plus the handicapper has raised it 1 lb in future races.

Rousillon has run to a similar standard but has done it twice - both races were over 1 mile but at Ripon, the latest being the historic and well contested Ripon Rowels. The form of these 2 races is good - Father Bertie, Finn Class and Chevalier have run well, Two For Two less so (Ripon Rowels); Breakable and Ginger jack won from the 13/8 race.

Speed figures are FB 59 and Rousillon a 58, and then the latest run merited a 55 but Shelley Birkett, the regular pilot, met some trouble and so that 55 'can be marked up' as they say.

Richard Fahey isnt usually far away in these well endowed northern handicaps and he has chosen Dark Devil to contest this, having run a promising 4th of 11 at Carlisle over this trip, which seemed to suit this Dark Angel gelding. (Speed figure 57)

Stoute runs Justice Smart and that is taking quite a lot of the market but his form doesnt merit it - beaten in a 0-85.

Jack Of Diamonds looks similarly outclassed, Column has a chance with a 57, but is held by Top Beak in a moderately run race at Yarmouth. See The Rock hasnt done enough to win this and Commodore is penalised for an AW win - not an ideal prep.


I think there is little between Fort Bastion, Dark Devil and Rousillon. What persuades me that ROUSILLON may edge it is the draw...
Dark Devil had a smooth rail trip at Carlisle and may have been flattered. He  wont get the run of the race here from the 9 box; Fort Bastion is drawn in the car park in 12; but Rousillon, having been drawn wide at Ripon twice now finds itself in the 4 box and if Shelley hugs the rail (the place to be on this sharply turning track) and gets an opening at the right time she can pinch it.

Rousillon is the logical bet.

Rousillon would have carried these but its not the 1980's....Rousayan is the horse i am referring to, of course. Sorry.
I didnt mention Pumaflor (SF 58)- this has a capable 5lb claimer taking over from C. Beasley but is drawn 11 which is the wilderness here. With a good trip it can figure, though.
V.

I gave Rousayan an entry in the old notebook lto at Ripon, being a fairly obvious EC having met with enough trouble up the straight.

Watching him last time and looking back through his form, I wonder if he'd be worth a try over 10f at some point.

Good luck with your pick.

It has to be Mehmas in the Middle Park.

Hannon's sprinter has commendable form figures and appears to be still improving. His second to the unbeaten Caravaggio looks ok and he has a verdict over Blue Point giving it 3 lbs (levels today). Intelligence Cross was behind so that shouldnt be a danger.
Mehmas should love the likely very fast surface, being an Acclamation (family of Royal Applause who won this race)and same goes for BP who has Royal Applause as his maternal grandsire and Shamardal as his sire.
BP has the faster spped figure but that was wind-assisted and I prefer to rely on the form line on this occasion.

Of the others Mokarris is held by BP, Silver Line is held, Mehmas got closer to Caravaggio than Medicine Jack and though Peace Envoy got close to Lady Aurelia that filly was stopping in the soft and the time was poor.

Logically, it must be MEHMAS, with the proviso that the stable is not in great form.

V.

No joy with Mehmas - and a surprise result to the Middle Park. It is unusual for horses to reverse form with a weight turnaround; and exceptionally difficult for a horse who finished 3rd to reverse with the front two at levels, which is what Johnston's horse did. It was a pity in the interview afterwards that the trainer wasnt asked to explain the improvement . That's the Racing media for you..

The Renaissance Stakes looks interesting - its a 6f Group3 race at the Curragh to be run in soft ground.

Gordon Lord B. cant win as he was out the back at Haydock in Quiet Reflection's race and carries a 5 lb pen. The Happy Prince is the 'jolly' for the O'Brien/R. Moore combo having run Breton Rock close in a 7f Group 2 and won a conditions race at Navan. Buckstay wasnt far behind THP in the 7 furlong race, however, (at levels)and at Navan only 1.75L in front of In Salutem (reopposes here). In Salutem won in the form graveyard that was the Shergar Cup, so THP's form is nothing special (nor were the times).

Instead, I look to La Rioja as a possible winner. She has won a Group3 in the soft which puts her 'in the mix' as that is all that is being asked of her again. But that was a UK minor track, the second was nothing much and it wasnt the fastest time of the day. In any case in conditions that quite suited her she was no match for Ridge Ranger and Mehronissa this season. She could do it, but a better proposition is

JANE'S MEMORY . This filly is about the equal of Ridge Ranger and Mehronnisa on form, loves the soft, and comes here on the back of a very respectable 6th (beating half the field) in the 32Red Sprint Cup won by the aforementioned Quiet Reflection. She had 2 of today's field behind her (Goken and GLB) and also in arrears were Dancing Star Kachy, Donjuan T. and magical Memory, and Rae Guest has booked Pat Smullen to take the ride.
I reckon The Happy Prince would have finished around the same place as my selection in the Haydock race but JM is 13/2 against 2/1. Naps have to be value, especially when you are on a bas run...!

V.

Goken was a disappointment to me at Haydock, having picked him on my notebook thread. I was anticipating a better run back on soft ground, having finished third in the King's Stand with juice in the ground and then not been disgraced in top sprints under conditions that might have been quick enough.

The Haydock run looked too bad to be true, but obviously has a bit to prove now and plenty to do to turn it around with Jane's Memory, who clearly is very effective on soft ground.

It's a drop in class for Goken (who has beaten Jane's Memory previously at G3 level) and cheekpieces are reached for, but looking back through his form, while he doesn't mind some cut, just wonder if he wants it proper soft (away from Ascot's straight course), cuz he certainly looked to flounder at Haydock.

I'm very disappointed with Jane's Memory ; obviously this wasnt its form as we were entitled to beat La Rioja who was third.

Today SHOWMETHEWAYAVRILO is entrusted with the nap at Bath. Cut in the ground will be a bonus, has run its last 2 races at bath and aquitted itself well from an unfavourable wide draw l.t.o - has an inside draw which will suit this front runner. Regular pilot an advantage in this apprentice race.

V.

Showme' runner up yesterday at 9/2.

Today, with Ayr abandoned I have to turn to the AW.

I had selected the 8 40 as the likely fav - Cape Crystal - was truly bad value because it had a poor speed figure and a victory over the decidedly moderate Anneani. As I was going 'tap, tap, boom' (hoho)on the lively outsider I had researched I went tap tap phut as Cape Crystal was withdrawn the second I backed PRAY FOR PARIS.

I've spent all morning playing cat and mouse trying to get a decent price for a couple of quid.

It wont have been lost on the observant that its now seven runners with the absentee - a familiar scenario...

No matter as I dont bet EW.

Looks quite competitive this 1m 1.5f fillies 0-75 handicap as there are plenty of attractive form figures including You're A Goat going for a hat trick, Livella Fella (AW debutante)with 1243 figures, Wings Of Esteem (recently AW 2nd)and Shadow Spirit with the dreaded JIm Crowley aboard and a couple of places to its name.

Speed figures give it to Y. A. Goat with 46, Wings Of Esteem has a 45 on turf but a 32 on an artificial surface and my selection's 4th over 1.5m at Kempton was worth a 43.

Sir Valentine won that Kempton class4 maiden but its the second Eyeshine (John Gosden) whose form give P for P such a chance on this its handicap debut. Eyeshine was 6L and 1L in front of me but was second to Hat trick filly Dubka the time before and went on to romp home by 8L in another Kempton maiden.

Pray For Paris hung left handed, perhaps through greenness, but it will appreciate going left handed tonight. It's a well bred filly (Champs Elysee out of a Red Ransom mare)and she runs over 2 furlongs less tonight.

Martyn Meade trains and he has 2 possible plans: 1. would be to tell Josephine Gordon to allow the horse to find its feet and make the best of her way home etc in order to get a place and position it in the handicap on its debut with a view to going all out NEXT time or 2., to seize the opportunity of a debut win with an improving filly. I dont know which is the case but there have been nibbles for her and I'm hopeful of a win.

V.

Pray For Paris was a promising third yesterday. Had Prescott's jolly stood its ground and not been withdrawn leaving the original 8 runners, (and if its form was unsound as I claimed) it would have returned a nice EW punt at 16-20/1.
However, on to today...

Ive gone through a few handicaps but not come up with anything i'm that happy with. I alighted on Flyboy for a while in the Nottingham 4 05 - it was gelded prior to its last run when it was a good 4th to Fuwairt but, although the form was made to look good by Pumaflor, those in behind have let it down. Time was OK . The fav is Master Gunner but its iffy because it will use up energy from an outside stall to make the running.

The naps table isnt about tipping certainties for me - its about the search for value. Half the battle is finding a bad favourite and a viable alternative..

Take the 6 10 at Kempton (6f fillies maiden):

Considered Opinion looks home and hosed on her Newbury debut run in second to two-time winner Partitia, with the Group 3 placed Promising a neck away in third.

However, the devil is in the detail - that Group 3 was slow, and the 1.5L 4th in Newbury, Contentment, was only a 10L 4th n.t.o. Plus the the 5th has been well beaten in 2 maidens since.

Scanning the opposition I spy a 450,000 gns daughter of Invincible Spirit from the Stoute yard who was 'green and awkward, always in rear' in Bletchley's fillies maiden.

Stoute has had over 2 months to school her, (and has access to a gallop with a similar surface to that of Kempton), the time of that maiden was good and it looks a good race - the second Reeh (Gosden) ran in  the Queen Mary, the third has been placed twice in maidens, the 4th has been placed in a v. fast beverley maiden (in which The Wagon Wheel (winner at York) ran) and has won a race, Cool Echo, the sixth, has been 2nd and the 7th has won a race.

It went off 7/2 second fav so must be thought something of.

I once did a survey of maiden races involving all the top trainers and Stoute was consistently one of the best and strikingly his maidens won a high proportion of their races 2nd time out. I am expecting a vastly improved performance from

PARLANCE (currently 12/1)

VITAVOX

Parlance second, beaten about a neck. 3/1 on the off! (parlty because C.O. withdrawn, though was 11 on betfair in reformed market at lunchtime.)

Short of choice today, so I am forced to go to the AW for my 'nap'.

The 2 divisions of the 5F 0-60 race that winds up the Newcastle card have attracted my attention. They are minefields of course but I have 'time' on my side - and that will be a help.

The 5 55 is the weaker of the two, but the more opaque. Groundworker looks dangerous dropped in class and Indastar with the blinds looks dangerous having run quite close up to Intense Starlet over today's CD l.t.o.

The latter is on a hat trick following that 5 furlong win (which according to my figures was the fastest on the 23rd September card) and tackles 5 furlongs again in the other division (for which it is favourite).

Hat trick seekers in general have a good record and Intense Starlet is to be feared but it has a 6 lb penalty for winning a £2K race. What else in the 5 25 can hold a candle to it?

Frank the Barber, has some plusses and minusses: one plus is the good speed figure it achieved in second behind Vale Of Flight at Chelmsford in £3K race; another plus is that this front runner has run in a few 0-70s and if you look hard enough it was runner up in one; the negative is the poor run l.t.o. and the fact it has never raced at Newcastle.

I've looked at the field and there is very little pace so FTB should lead and if it does it might well reproduce its best figures and hold on from IS who comes from off the pace. Frank The Barber has won a 0-60 from the front so its done what is being asked of it before.

At around 8/1 FRANK THE BARBER is the choice but it will be (a) close (shave). hoho..

Frank The barber was second at 10/1 - Intense Starlet never got into it.
V.

Friday 30 September Ascot.

Its the only turf flat meeting but I am not complaining - its classy fayre compared with what has been offered during the week.

The obvious starting point for me are the 7 furlong handicaps as I can study similar lines of form over one distance and cover both races as they are only a grade apart.

The later race provides a good betting opportunity because Hornsby,the favourite, is too short. It hasnt done enough. Let me explain..

Ostensibly the 0-105 Qatar stakes run over 7f of the Goodwood track on Stewards Cup day looks a deep, competitive race as the pundits like to say. Hawatif won the race, Bobby Wheeler was second, followed by Tiger Wolf (winner since) and hot on their heels finishing with a rattle we had Hornsby and Reputation (winner since). Venturous and Sramp Hill have won from the race and they were further in arrears.

The time was ok, only .8 sec per mile slower than Hoof It (the best time of the day adjusted)but the winner and second could only manage  12th and 14th n.t.o., repectively and Tigerwolf won that small race in a very poor time. Hornsby comes out with a 54 at these weights today. What worries me about Hornsby was its lack of 'early' - it was being scrubbed along in last and only got going late. It looks to need a mile.

In the same ownership, and topweight, however, we have a horse who ran 1 second per mile faster than the other division of its 2 y.o. maiden to record the fastest time of the day (adjusted) and since being gelded and equipped with headgear it has run the fastest on the card at Yarmouth from the front showing very good early speed - Brave Hero (59). It was only a 0-90 but to my eye won easily and hit the line hard.

Hornsby is going to have to pass the entire field and the overtake BH who stayed a mile as a 2 year old. Its not going to happen. BRAVE HERO is the nap and , imo, should be favourite.

Explosive Power has a 58 and a 0-95 4th which will make it dangerous, but looking at its form, it appears to prefer softer ground than it is going to get today (looking out of my window 5 miles from the track).

V.

I think you need to be a bit more forgiving re Hornsby's early-race troubles at Goodwood. It's probably the worst place in the country to be drawn on the outside of a 14-runner 7f field, particularly when the ground is quick. The bend comes up quickly, and early position is everything, so they're all keen to get a good start. (Of course, Bobby Wheeler overcame it and led, but he's a natural front-runner - he seems to have held his form for 2 races only, but he obviously puts a lot into his races). There'll be much less so at a big wide straight track like Ascot. But you may be right about him ideally wanting a little further.

At around 16-1, Abernathy was the one that made some appeal to me in this  race.

Raced in the 'swamp' next to the stands' rail on his reappearance at York and didn't shape too badly in the circumstances; he then raced with the choke out without cover over a mile at Haydock, but still ran OK to finish second; his latest run is easily excused on account of the ground.

His 7f maiden win last season looks good given he beat the now high-90s rated Von Blucher (with Hornsby behind).

He's back from a break here and Buick prefers Hornsby, but at a price, I'm gunna risk a shekel!

GED - Hornsby's lack of early pace is separate from his draw position. If you lack pace you just tuck in and take the shortest route on the inner. Which is what he did. As it panned out H wasnt inconvenienced by his draw.
BUT - I  may have been a bit hasty in dismissing his chance because this is ASCOT and not Goodwood and its against the collar , favouring hold up horses, so it will be closer than I first thought.

Thanks for your contribution - I wish more would wade in with criticisms. I can take it.

V.

Ha. Ok, I'll keep going. I don't think you can necessarily separate the two. The draw (at Goodwood) will have affected the jockey's mindset, and so may have affected the way he prepared the horse in the stalls. If you watch Jamie Spencer in the stalls, he usually sits very quietly on his horse (compared with other jockeys) because he (usually) has every intention of sitting last. Consequently, his horses often break slowly, and/or are slower into their stride than others. It's not a hard and fast relationship, but there is (imo) a connection.

I see we are down to 11 runners so no 1/4 EW - uncanny isnt it. I am going to do a study of the frequency of withdrawls plotted against the bookmakers' EW breakpoints (ie 'dead 8', 12 runners 1/4 123. and 16R 1/4 1234). The latest trend I have noticed is the high frequency of 6 runners down to 5.
V.

In the 2.35 there's barely 2lb between the field on the adjusted figs, but because it's a 'classified' they're getting away with paying a fifth the odds (though a couple are paying a quarter).

On the same theme, 2 nons bring the field down to 16 now in the opening 7f handicap; what's the betting 1 more comes out to kill the 1/4 123?

I view this as a test case.

V.

Interesting that Albernathy has first colours.

If anything, Buick is wearing the 'third' colours with the red cap, but presumably he had the choice of the Appleby runners. Maybe they've gone in alphabetical order!

Apparently Cheveley Park decide who wears their first colours by 'seniority' of the trainer.

I do like the 2nd string 'angle' with a 'good' stable. I used to like it with Henry Cecil years ago. They are often overpriced in the belief that as the stable jockey has rejected it, that's one that can have a line put through it. It's probably something that's worth historic P&L analysis to see if there's really anything in it, (or if it's just a rose-tinted view), restricting it to specific stable/track/race-type combinations. Obviously that means potential backfitting if you find something, but it would be an interesting study (imo). (I have particularly fond memories of Belmez and a Madame Dubois/Applecross D/F).

Just watched the opening 7 furlong handicap on RUK. Feel a bit cheated because I figured on Plucky Dip franking the Brave hero time and had £4 at 15 and 15.5 only to see that it was withdrawn. So Gothic Empite (2 places behind Plucky Dip and 5th To Brave Hero) goes and wins (unbacked). Graham Cunningham and his co host completely missed the line to brave Hero later on. Nor that Plucky Dip would have won had it not been withdrawn and that means they cant raise the interesting question as to whether Plucky Dip was withdrawn to enable Gothic Empire ( a previous CD winner) to win.

RUK are poor value for money - they dont do the homework.
V.

Correction - Gothic Empire was a Yarmouth winner not, as I imply, an Ascot winner.

1.38 in the run

Ascot 4 20 Post Mortem.

Didnt fancy the winner,Musdam, nor the paper favourite Hornsby (got that right). Thought Brave Hero should be favourite - got that right - but it didnt win, so got that wrong. However the race was run slower than the earlier 7F race which was won by a horse Brave Hero murdered last time out at Yarmouth. Cant unravel that but BH cant have run his race today. Might be a difficult ride.
V.
Better find something for tomorrow. Sunday I have £16 Speedy Boarding at 8/1 - something to look forward to, and if it wins it will partly make up for La Cres (£32 at 14/1)...

Graham Cunningham hinted strongly on RUK yesterday that he had done hid brains this month (in common with many of us I suspect.) There have been too many upsets and inconsistencies to mention. I have hung up my betting boots for this season.

However, I am committed to the Coral naps competition so the show must go on.

I have studied 2 races in depth: the 2 15 @ Newmarket and the 4 25 @ Redcar. I shall start with the sprint handicap (New) which is worth £50K and run over 6f on likely fastish ground and is for fillies only.

Firstly there are only 2 horses who have competed for anything like this prize money in the field: Stellarta at Windsor and Summer Chorus. Stellarta has gone up 11 lbs since and finds herself off topweight with no apprentice claiming anything off her back - what is Blanshard (trainer) thinking of..?

Summer Chorus is intriguing. I heavily backed Vincennti on the basis of SC (who had been second to it at Brighton)running a cracking race at Newmarket n.t.o. I did my money. But since then V. has run very well vindicating my earlier positive view of the Brighton form. She has run twice more (both at Newmarket)- once in a 7F race where she underperformed and then back at 6F in an all-aged 0-85 where she was a creditable, though not exceptional, third to Under Seige. Its too early to say how good that form is but her winning form is looking good with East End Review, Muhadathaat and Aclaim winning and Sixties Sue (runs in todays race ) behind in 8th. On time it was v.g. earning her a 66 here against

57 Stellarta
50 , 54 Sweet dragonfly
57 Pixeleen
50 Ginzan
57 Emerald Loch
44 Racing Angel

However, she only earnt a 50 in her latest outing - though Raceform described it as 'solid form'.
AFAIK, this is SUMMER CHORUS's first time in a fillies race and I suspect she needs a fast pace to aim at over 6 fulongs and/or an uphill finish as she is a 'finisher'. J Quinn, her winning jock rides and let's hope for an honest pace. She can win this 0-93 against these 0-85 fillies as her win was a nominal 0-105 (actual (0-100).

The Rescar race is a mile handicap series final - you would expect this to be competitive and it is!

I think the forecast betting which has the topweights at the head of affairs is spot on. The dead wood is ( and including)Lawyer down.

Beardwood ran a tremendous 4th in the fast Silver Cambs but is held by the topweight Dawn Mirage who was third. Pumafloor was a good winner l.t.o. and hasnt finished winning, Shamaheart has a chance, Fuwairt was a good winner 2 outings ago and has the useful claimer C. Noble up again and Father Bertie, who won this last year, has put together some quick times in succession.

Its going to be great to watch but its too difficult to call. Beardwood is running for only the third time for new trainer Mark Johnston and has shown marked improvement l.t.o over his 2 other runs but with MJ you dont know what his charges are going to do..its boom or bust with him. For my own part, I am interested in whether the Silver Cambridgeshire time is going to hold up. I have a suspicion that the Rowley course was firmer over 1 mile plus than the rest of the course - this Redcar race will tell me if that's true or not. (This has important implications for my rating of Spainburg, The Last LIon , Fair Eva, et.al.(See my thread 'Newmarket On Time).)

V.

Good luck punting today everyone - you are going to need it!

Welcome winner yesterday.

The nap today SPEEDY BOARDING  at Chantilly IN the 1.25m Group 1 Opera for fillies and mares.

So Mi Dar is the favourite but for all her promise she has only won a Conditions, a Group 3 and a Listed race and she faces a pair of Group 1 winners in Speedy B. and Pleascach.

Pleascach is interesting. She makes her seasonal debut and she will be ready but she pulled hard on at least one occasion last year and she will be fresh today and running in a small field in France where they sometimes go slow early. She is the most experienced at this level having run in 3 Group 1s. In 2 of those she failed to beat half the field and the won she won (beating Covert Love) was the slowest race of the day (adjusted).

Speedy Boarding has also won a Group 1 but it wasnt particularly strong as there were no Group 1 winners in the field. She does run well in France, however, and this is her trip, whereas Pleascach's Group1 was 1.5 miles. In contrast to Pleascach her Group 1 wAS run fast - indeed fastest of the Deauville card and it was her latest run.

Jemayel is the other filly of note but her second to La Cres l.t.o.looks good on paper but there were only 5 runners and the winner won easily having propped coming out of the stalls - she could be flattered.

For me the 4 runners I have discussed should be around 7/2 each of 4 instead of So Mi Dar odds on and 5/1 bar.

V.

Not sure a race in France qualifies for the Naps competition. Looking at another option.

V.

My alternative selection if French racing doesnt qualify is BIGBADJOHN in the 2 55 at Uttoxeter.

The Skelton jolly, Value at Risk, is well named as its got 2 'fallen' in its form (though one was a slip after a dodgy jump)and had to return to hurdling after it started last season as a novice chaser. Its fav because of its Irish Graded hurdle form and I prefer a hurdler with less hurdling ability which has the makings of a chaser. There are 2 in the field that are of interest - Ballycross (Twiston Davies) and BBJ (Curtis). I have chosen the latter as it has had a pipe opener in a Grade 1 3 mile hurdle (PU) and is a bigger price the seasonal debutant Ballycross. BBJ won a grade C novice hurdle at a Grade 1 track (Newbury)on good/soft and is by Vinnie Roe so the trip of 2.5 mile is no problem. It beat Hell's Kitchen that day who had been an impressive winner at Newbury the time before and the second that day, Walking In The Air, won next time out. Time wasnt bad either.

So I am switching to BIGBADJOHN who is certain to qualify for the Coral Naps comp.
(I might even have a few quid on it..)

V.

a 'pipe opener'? 5 months ago? How long do you think a horse's pipes stay open? 27th April is 'this season' only on a daft technicality.

Not that Rebecca Curtis's need a pipe-opener - they're better off without one, and more often regress after a run.

Another winner in Speedy Boarding (backed antepost at 8/1). Wont count towards the Naps Title but it will count towards my bank balance.
V.

Oct 2, 2016 -- 4:38AM, ged wrote:

a 'pipe opener'? 5 months ago? How long do you think a horse's pipes stay open? 27th April is 'this season' only on a daft technicality.Not that Rebecca Curtis's need a pipe-opener - they're better off without one, and more often regress after a run.

My mistake there - I had to hurriedly submit a substitute selection when I remembered international races dont count towards the Nap Comp and skated over the fact that the 3rd place was some time ago! (Also, everything pretty much has been flat racing and I have lost touch with the jumps.) Mea culpa.
V

On a Monday if you can find a classy, speedy and progressive horse you are very fortunate and I have found one Hamada (2 00 Ponte).
Second to a Roger Charlton Frankel 2 y.o. maiden winner at Sandown (Atty Pearse) and with only slow opposition to overcome  HAMADY ahould win. It will be odds on.

V.

Hamada has just won easily but, as expected, very short - about 1/2.

V.

The nap today (4/10) is awarded to MR ORANGE in the Leics 4 20.

I have noted this Paul Midgley a couple of times but I have yet to back it (or tip it). Today it looks to have a fine chance based on its penultimate second place to Kenny The Captain who was able to defy a 6lb rise n.t.o.

The time of that race also impresses against this opposition and a 0-70 is going to be slightly easier to win than that 0-75.

Icing on the cake? Spot the difference between the kudos of Mr Orange's recent jockeys:

3/8 Cam Hardie (39 days and 74 rides since a win)
6/9 Cam Hardie  (   ditto       )
15/9 Manuel Fernandes (3) apprentice handicap
Today Clifford Lee (5) 3 wins in last 13 rides.

Its up a lb but that's not a problem and there is no rain forecast so it should be 'good' ground by the off which will suit - its by Paco Boy out of an Acclamation mare.

V.

Mr Orange lost by a nose @ 13/2. Ive watched it 3 times and my horse won every time! Haha.
(Graceland was another one previously @9/2, thats 11 points dropped. Cant afford it in this comp.)
V.

We travel to Kempton in search of a winning 'nap'.

The 7 20 looks promising with 8 runners and lots of form. I cant have Rotherwick and Rock Steady, who are both slow. Rotherwick's trainer, Paul Cole, has provided numerous winners for John Crowley but doesnt put him up here. Instead Crowley rides Panko - but that has gone up 3 lb for losing. Ocean Ready is held and some of the bottom weights are out of form. That leaves Theydon Grey, but that was only 9th 2 outings ago. So nothing stands out. And there is another factor..

In the likely event of a non runner in this dead eight I dont want to take the chance it will be my selection.  Ive decided to look at the first division of the 7 furlong maiden instead.

Its a class 5 with 11 runners, including 3 newcomers -  Varian's Call Me Grumpy is one and Owen Burrows' Azany another. They will do well to beat the experienced horses. 4 runners have had a single introduction and one of those, Ryan Moore's mount Intrepidly, trained by jeremy Noseda, is the likely favourite.

However, the best form is provided by Al Reeh, ridden by the champion jockey and trained by Marco Botti. AR was 4th at Yarmouth to Battered, with Varian's 110,000 yearling Ekhtiyaa, making his debut, second. (So Roger Varian has some idea of what his debutant, Call me Grumpy, has to do to beat Al Reeh.)That race was only .5 second per mile behind the fastest race of the card. Prior to that AR made a promising debut in a newmarket maiden, 1 length behind Mazyoun who ran well in a valuable sales race n.t.o. Battered had form with Storm Cry in a strong York maiden which was also fast run; Storm Cry went on to win its next race. That was all 6 furlongs so I am taking a chance on 2 unknowns - the trip and the  surface. Overall its..

AL REEH for me.
v.

As usual I will do my post mortem on the previous day's tip : The times for the Kempton card point to Al Reeh running his race, the debutant, Sheikspear, running very promisingly, and the winner Intrepidly improving to win. I overlooked the fact that the winner is owned in partnership his jockey's  agent Tony Hind and Ryan Moore  had stepped off AR to ride it.

Today it has to be Ayr where it is heavy ground(unfortunately).  I have had limited success in the past at this course and i am not having a bet.

Initially, I was drawn to Tiger Jim (3 50) but there are a couple of mudlarks in there and Jim is favourite and likely to shorten.

Instead I look to the 4 25 which, by contrast, has a bad favourite - Run To The Hills. Its penalised 8 lbs for a minor win in slow time.

The problem is there are negatives surrounding many of his opponents. Russian Realm is a Goodwood Specialist, Muntadab has gone up 11 lbs, Mount Tahan was hoisted 5lbs for a second place and is an iffy starter, Tadaany hasnt the class or the speed to figure, and Pintura won a weak race that's not been advertised and didnt do a time. ballymore Castle is held by both Mount Tahan and Sir Billy Wright.

Muntadab did attract me, despite being top  weight,  as it has class and time credentials. I would have thought Roger Fell, the trainer, could have found a decent apprentice to take some of the weight off, if he was serious about winning this in heavy ground but leafing back through the form book to its heavy ground win in April the trainer is quoted as saying it 'won despite the ground'. So he cant fancy it, can he?

Sir Billy Wright covers most of my requirements - a Ffos Las win in heavy, 2 placed efforts in todays class (0-90/95), reasonable recent form, a good claimer on top and, stretching a point here, if you go back far enough, 2 decent times that merit a chance when matched up with the rest of the field .

SIR BILLY WRIGHT  gets the vote.

V.

Tiger Jim and Sir Billy Wright both second. SBW was 9/1 just on the off - not certain what the SP was. Run To The Hills unplaced.
V.

3 25 York 1.75 miles 0-105 handicap.

I backed Parliamantarian at Haydock last time it ran considering it something of a good thing and Yangtze p....d all over it. Obviously Stoute's stayer, who had looked a twicer in previous races, was a reformed character and a good bet to carry the pen to a follow up win.

That was until I saw the time which was poor, and then I realised it was flattered by the ease of its victory. Now it became a horse to oppose because those pundits and punters who use only their eyes will make it short n.t.o and there will be value to be had.

So we come to this staying handicap at York involving Yangtze whi an 8/1 shot behind  the front 2 in the betting who are

Guns Of Leros 11/2, and,
Cape Cova  7/1


Guns of Leros is penalised for a slow Apprentice Derby win but doesnt have the benefit of the excellent Hector Crouch here.
Cape Cova  won a 0-83 from Daphne who ran well to beat Graceland n.t.o at Goodwood; but this is tougher and CC is being stretched another 2 furlongs by his trainer Gosden. However, he must have mislaid his copy of 'Damns Of Winners' because the mum is a daughter of the miler Barathea.
Yangtze is a bridle horse and will not relish the hurly burly of a hot 14 runner York handicap. Its got quite a bit more to do.
West Coast Flyer had a hard race on the all weather and is up 7lb, Against The Odds was beaten 7L l.t.o, Icefall is similarly penalised, up in trip and held by Master Blueyes, and Blakeney Point is slow and held by Yangtze.

I have narrowed it down to Mark Johnston's erratic Fireglow who ran the useful Alyssa to a nose l.t.o and has been tackling Listed and Group company, and the aforementioned Master Blueyes, trained by Alan King. MBE is a consistent proven stayer who contested a CD handicap last time out worth £53K earning a speed figure of 61 - a figure none of its opponents has come anywhere near.

By a process of elimination MASTER BLUEYES has it.

Vitavox.

Postscript (3 25 York)

Corinthian (Roger Varian's contender) deserves a mention.

Had the Beer Studio 1m 6f handicap at Haydock (Sept 24)been run in a better time I would have had Corinthian ahead of Master Blueyes as it was slightly better class. However, the winner that day, Faithful Mount has let the form down behind Fabricate recently and the presence of Angel Gabriel, one place ahead of Corinthian in third, drags the form down as it was only 9th of 17 the time before.
V.

Postscript 2,

Guns Of Leros ESCAPES a penalty as it was a boys' race and is 7 lbs well in. (My mistake). It doesnt change my selection.
V.

I had 15.5 Master Blueyes earlier this morning and when it was gambled I had half of it back at 6.2 and 6.0 just before the off. Good business but a bit frustrating - another second.

Should click soon.  I cant be doing much wrong..

V.

4 25 Chepstow 2m 3.5f handicap hurdle.

Ballyoptic achieved a hat trick last season, culminating in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Its the best hurdler in the race but the trainer hints this is a prep for more serious targets and its back in trip.

Instead, I choose another class hurdler getting weight and usefully EXTENDED in distance - WHO DARES WINS, trained by inform Alan King.

WDW ran a super race in the Daily Express triumph Trial and emerged as the best horse at the weights behind Protek Des Flos. I backed the winner for the Daily Express but it didnt run though the second in the Trial did and finished a respectable 6th (Clan Des Obeaux). WDW disappointed in the big one but I'm inclined to forgive him that.

This looks a race WDW can win as not only did he win f.t.o last year but he is fit from the flat.

V.

Who Dares Wins fluffed the last but it only cost him a place - not the win.
Another of Alan King's makes his  hurdle debut in the first at Chepstow today - Rainbow Dreamer.

I've backed this stayer on the flat the last twice and his runner up spot to Alyssa looks decent flat form now. I have to take his hurdling ability on trust but the trainer has had 59 days in which to school him since his last run and in the course of that time he wasnt tempted to score on the level even though he was thrown and instead waited for this class 4 juvenile hurdle.

Paul Nicholls targets this race and the danger should be Sam T-D's choice of the 2 he runs, Dolos (the likely favourite).

RAINBOW DREAMER could go right to the top in this division.

V.

Trawled through the dull Monday cards and struggled to find anything that satisfied me. (Plus Monday has proved a bad day during the course of the Summer.)

Eventually I've come across a rapidly improving filly, ridden by a 7lb claimer, that really understands her quirks (she hangs left).

UNSUSPECTED GIRL is her name and she goes in the 7 25 at Chelmsford.

Cacica is the danger and ahead of mine in the betting. She was a fast time third and then won a 0-70. SDS rides so that will shore up the price and All The  Rage is Sir M. Prescott's so that will be backed as well.

Neither of them have much in hand of U. Girl on time : Cacica 51, 49; All The Rage 38; and U. Girl 49; and My filly's 0-80 third at Kempton, turning the wrong way for her, reads well in this 0-75.

Back at Chelmsford, where she is a dual winner, she is a good bet.
I wouldnt worry about the outside draw (10 of 10) as she is habitually slowly away and the jockey will just slide over to the rail and make her way through the field saving ground.

V.

How's your p/l since starting this particular thread vitavox ?

Lot of crossbars you've hit Vita

Up to date account soon Desperado - but i'm behind I know that.

Yes, madhatter and another second today at 8/1, which makes 4 seconds and a third in my last 5 selections.
However, i'm in good form and I backed one at 20/1 on the Exchanges yesterday.

V.

I know tomorrow's pick - its INTRANSIGENT in the 3 10 at Leicester.

Andrew Balding's charge was running Coulsty close in a Listed race over this CD in April 2015 and having reached a mark of 110 last year has now slipped to a workable 94.

It meets 2 penalised winners (That Is The Spirit and Cant Change It) who have gone up a few lbs as a result, Accession who cant go on the forecast G/F ground, and Maggie Pink who is held by the selection on the Chester run behind Above The Rest. C Note has the benefit of the tremendous Jim Crowley and headgear but it wont beat a back to form Intransigent.

I'm hoping that the seven length beating Intransigent took at Chester will dissuade the pundits and layers from rating my horse - thus keeping the price up. In fact the time was excellent and even with -7 spots it still comes out ahead:

Intransigent 62
That Is The Spirit 57
Accession 47 on G/F.

V.
Get well soon to Ian Balding.

Intransigent 2nd at 6/1.
V.

That's one unlucky run your on vita.

Keep plugging away has to turn soon.

Thanks mate..this run of seconds IS getting a bit boring.

Hopefully PANTHER PATROL will get his head in front for me in the first race at Bath.

(I had looked to Nottingham to provide the selection but what looked tasty solvable handicaps kept falling apart as my potential picks exhibited a flaw here and there. Plus rain is forecast and given there are withdrawn horses I'd say it was falling. Unusual results are more likely under these conditions.)

RP's Spotlight has it right in the Bath 1 30, a 5.5f sprint handicap - its between the top 3 in the handicap who are dropping in class. Nocturn has gone up 3 lbs, and Pour La Victoire is coming here from a seemingly respectable third, but I find that race slow. Instead PP has run placed in fast races and his latest third was to a pair of n.t.o winners (Symposium and Pettochside ( a good yardstick)).

PP has to defy a wide draw but Charles Bishop knows the horse and hopefully a decent break will limit the ground loss. Panther Patrol is 5/1 in this morning's RP and that will be useful in my bid to win this Coral Naps competition. With the bad draw it wont be heavily backed and I should get a price. Only 8 days left to find 30 points..

V.

Panther Patrol could only manage 4th from stall 11 at Bath. Hector Crouch won on something I didnt think could win - sign of a good jockey. I've got my eye on him. Won the apprentice Derby at Epsom.

As predicted (if SP's are a guide) the rain at Nottingham distorted the results. Winners were 8/1, 14/1, 15/8, 7/1, 5/1, 8/1, 25/1, 20/1.

Today the Nap is a horse at Chelmsford's evening meeting. You will all forgive me for waiting till later to reveal 'the certain 2nd' as I want a bet and I shall need more liquidity in the market. I'm not gaining anything in terms of weather forecasts and going changes so I think that is reasonable.

V.

7 50 Chelmsford 7f 0-85 handicap..

14 runners go to post for this tricky-looking handicap. Its a left hand turning track and you need to be in the low half of the draw. So I am ruling out the outside 5 - Starfield, Firmdecidions, Nouvelli Dancer, Wellies' and Irish Eclair.

Like No Other is a possible winner as it has won a race on the AW and most of these are coming off the Turf. It has a 0-85 2nd so its in the class. and its 1 of 4 three year olds, so it could be argued it has a bit of imptovement in it. A 52 best speed figure on Turf puts it 'in the mix', though its AW figure is lower at 49. A 10 lb hike for its recent 2nd looks harsh.

Room Key is hard to assess as, after failing to cut the mustard in 2 better races than this on the Turf, it won a small race at Laytown over this trip. Its on the same mark and Hollie Doyle is able to claim 2 lbs more than E. Greatrix (its previous UK rider).

Alejandro is turning up again but its had plenty of chances, hasnt it? Does have a historical bit of AW form but is held by Plucky Dip who reopposes it here. I cant fancy it.

Jammy Guest is popular with Spotlight and has the best SF in the field - 58 - but you have to go back to April to find it and it only managed in the low 40s l.t.o. Also its PB was in a 0-85 and

PLUCKY DIP  nearly matched that figure when it was recently 3rd behind Brave Hero at Yarmouth (52). BH has been turned over since in good company but the 5th Gothic Empire HAS franked the form in a fast 0-85 at Ascot.

Twin Point also ran in the Brave Hero race and finished half a length behind my selection . This, too, is its next race.
TP occupied a different part of the track to Plucky Dip and a bias could bring them closer I suppose but I prefer what's printed in the form book to speculation.

Although it is not a frequent winner PLUCKY DIP is the best horse in the race and its a double figure price.

Vitavox

Plucky Dip was a not-do-plucky 5th. He did confirm the form with Twin Point who was a surprise favourite, which leads me to believe the Brave Hero Yarmouth form to be poor - But then how did Gothic Empire win so impressively at Ascot? Further Firmdecisions, yesterday's winner of the race was way behind both PD and TA at Yarmouth. My comclusion is Firmdecisions liked the surface - I wouldnt bet it to follow up anywhere else. (Or for some reason best known tot he trainer hasnt been at its best all season (8 outings).)Maybe something will come out of the steward's enquiry into the improvement in its form, hahaha...
V.

3 10 Haydock, 1 mile 0-95 handicap.

I love these northern 1 mile left hand turning handicaps - that there are so many of them means there is plenty of form to get stuck into. Also, there is usually plenty of pace up front from jockeys anxious to carry out their instructions to grab the rail before the turn - so they are truly run.

Father Bertie has the best recent form here but he has had some hard races and now he has won his race the trainer may have relaxed his work. Also, surprisingly, although his win l.t.o. is his best form it was by no means his best performance on the clock. He is passed over in the search of value elsewhere.

There are 2 old friends running: Two For Two and Rousayan. I've lost money on both and when that happens you learn lessons. Although it looks cracking form the Ripon Rowels where they both clashed is not good. Tom Segal tipped up the winner of that race,Treasury Notes, for the Cambs but I knew he had that wrong because earlier both the aforementioned horses bombed out carrying my cash. TN only finished 13th in the big Newmarket handicap and, Knight Owl, second to TN at Ripon was only 26th. Confusingly Father Bertie was also in the Ripon race and that has won, as we know, but not in a quick time. So that's 2 more I am rejecting, to add to Father Bertie.

Fox Trotter and Raising Sand are also out as they havent done the grade time and Ginger Jack in recent seasons has failed to beat half the field every time it races at Haydock. Jack's Revenge only won a 0-85 last time, but it was a decent time and shouldnt be underestimated. However, I remember him as a soft ground specialist, and there is no rain forecast.

Le Chat D'Or comes into the picture on the 5th to Morando, the Balmoral fav., at Ayr, but 2 horses in front of it (Haley Bop and Fort Bastion) both only managed 8th in their follow up run (which doesnt augur well for Morando on Saturday). Besides it is held by Father Bertie from Carlisle.

The choice, somewhat by default, is Mick Channon's GRATZIE. This mare ran 2 races in quick succession over the C and D in September, and in the second of those (where she DID get a run) she was a respectable 2nd to Above And Beyond in a 0-100. She didnt do so well next time at Newmarket but that was a classy event won by Muffri'Ha and she has had a 13 day beak since those 3 quick runs.
(Channon runs his horses too frequently imo.)

I have the sense that Gratzie likes a turning track such as this and I can visualise Oisin Murphy dropping her in from her unfavourable draw and weaving through to pounce late. She has the figures to do it:

Gratzie 62
Jack's Revenge 61
Two For Two 64, 58
Le Chat D'Or 59
Raising Sand 57
Had a few squids at 14/1 last night but its shorter this a.m.

The icing on the cake would be if Paul Kealy has put up Fox Trotter in the Naps comp and Gratzie wins - that would be a helpful turnaround in what is turning out to be a fruitless attempt on my part to win it.

I see they're still sticking to a mile with Rousayan despite my advice to step the horse up in trip, some people never listen! Mind, he'd still be my pick at the prices though!

Good luck with yours!

PS I've got 5 selections to make tomorrow for a competition that I'm currently leading over on the Your Comps forum(funnily enuff, a comp where everyone started at the same time!), but I can confirm at this point that none of the 5 will be running in the Sprint at Ascot!

Hi George!
I'd be interested in looking at those. Where is that going to be?
'Your Comps Forum?'

Re the Ascot card I have sorted out my selection for the Sprint and I have started backing it just now. I thought we might start a fresh thread on the race. I'm happy for you to lead off and I will comment. In the morning?

Be lucky..
Vitavox

Further down the menu list on the left side, thread is entitled October Saturday Tipping Challenge - it's selections only, don't have to show your working!
Unfortunately it's not open to latecomers, as there have been elimination rounds already!

As for the Sprint, you can start off as it's clearly of more interest to you than it is to me, but if I have anything to add (unlikely), I will!

I wasnt thinking of entering George - I've got enough on my plate!

(Ok, I'll start a Sprint thread.)

Today, (and what a wonderful day of top class action it is), I am taking on one of Aiden O'Brien's strong team - Order Of St George in the Long Distance Cup, a Group2 race over 2 miles.

O of ST. G. won the Ascot Gold Cup over 2.5 miles and this was considered a high class performance. His trainer and everyone else considered the horse to be not just a high class stayer but to have the speed for shorter and he duly ran third in the Arc to his 2 other stable companions to prove the point.

The form of the Gold Cup is not great, however, and the time was poor, only rating a 57. The Arc form is untested but the time was good and O of St G. gets a 73 - imo his best performance on the racetrack ie., 3rd in a Group 1.

This is a Group 2 today and he faces 2 other Group 1 winners in Simple Verse and Quest For More. QFM won the Cadran by 'wearing down' his opponents over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs. Today's 2 miles with a short straight might find him out, but he will be dangerous if he gets loose from the front.

Simple Verse, by contrast is a dual Group 1 winning mare whose winning distance  has been SHORTER than todays trip - 1.75m (St Leger 2015) and the 1.5m Fillies and Mares at this meeting last year (where she beat one of today's opponents, Journey .5L). She is being stretched to 2 miles for the first time. In general I prefer animals that are up in distance rather than back in distance and the question is - will she get the 2 miles?

SV is by Duke Of Marmalade who won up to 1.5m and on the distaff side of the family you find Sadlers Wells and, significantly,Shirley Heights, whose offspring stay very well. She runs like she will stay well, plus she is tough and genuine. Her trainer has chosen this race over the Fillies and Mares so he thinks she will stay.

Is she good enough?

She is the same horse as Bondi Beach on St Leger form whom O'Brien is sending to the Melbourne Cup. Moreover, on time she recorded the same figure of 73 in the Park Hill l.t.o as O of St. George did in the Arc, but has a 3lb mares allowance giving her a point advantage. I think there is little to separate the two but O'Brien's charge is odds on so

SIMPLE VERSE has to be the bet, and my selection. I think O'Brien must fear the mare who has had a light campaign having had 37 days off compared to his horse who has only had 13 days to recuperate from a tough race abroad.

Vitavox

My previous selection Simple Verse beat the O'Brien hotpot but failed to deal with the Group 2 winner Sheik......thingy. So a positive and a negative. Did she quite get home? Dont think so.

Despite not having raced on the AW I am with ASTROPHYSICS in the 0-75 sprint handicap that winds up the card at Newcastle.
Only up 3 lbs for a l.t.o. win in similar company connections will consider themselves welltreated.

Sir Domino has a better speed figure achieved behind Top Boy at Chelmsford in August but this is a different course; also, reverting to cheekpieces from blinkers is a negative considering its best figures were with the latter.

Eternity's Gate could be another danger but the form of its seemingly good second to Oriental Relation in a decent time at Wolverhampton has fallen apart with the first three running 7th, 10th and 10th in their next outings.

V.

Astrophysics was travelling like a winner but found no extra in the latter stages. The winner's form is rubbish, but had experience of the surface and maybe that was more use than being quick on turf.

In a poor field for today's Ponte nursery I have found a filly with some reasonable times and consistent performances - SILVER LINK

I am withdrawing from this competition and will no longer be posting on this Forum.
See the thread entitled 'Is Shalaa a Good Thing'.

Vitavox.

Sorry to hear this V- unlucky again today, I really enjoyed reading your analysis, just read that  other  thread; George B must be just jelus coz he's minus 50 on the RP naps table although he did bang a 4/7 winner in today

bgr blooma, I think you'll find the real reason vitavox has run away with his tail between his legs is because he has been given a damned good spanking (metaphorically speaking, obv) by Mr Kealy, and looking for a way out of this mess, he's acting like a big girl's blouse and blaming me, while trying to disguise the lack of winners his fancy speed figures have failed to come up with.

But I agree with you, his write-ups are worth a read, and although I will no longer be contributing to any of his threads, I hope he continues, with no hard feelings!

I've decided not to follow RPR nor Melissa Jones, both guilty of napping long shots to win the comp.   So I'm hoping Kealy has a final winner to end with 50+ points.

Vitavox,  you said your objective was to get noticed and get a job in the RP.

Well the abuse you would get then would put George,s throw away comment in the kiddies corner ffs.

He,s probably right that your lack of winners was the real reason.

Man up ffs and try turn it around ,

Your selections were knocking on the door and your write ups always worth a read.

Come back on and forget the bullsh1t about kealy ,Segal, naps table etc and just do a simple +/- thread.

How are you doing this time round?