D. Phil takes on Segal and Kealy.

t s only posts saturdays, big races and big meetings and p/wise extra.
p kealy only posts fridays, saturdays and p/wise extra. 
other than for p/wise extra they both have to post there selections probably by 6pm the previous day. sounds like you are not going to do the same? 

if you want a challenge have a look at the ryan we thread.
try taking on ryan we and pumphol who post big priced winners regularly the night before.

Paul Kealy is just betting on two flies going up the wall I shall give him a shout,,,

Nice start. A winner, one going close and placing and one maybe being done by the draw. Keep it up

did tesco swallow it?

Saturday 30/7.

Im swerving the difficult looking card at Goodwood - saturday at a major festival is difficult at the best of times but when the bookies have taken a pasting the previous day I run for cover as a backer (I cant put my finger on the reason).

Rather, i am looking for a winner or two at Newmarket - a straightforward track with prevailing good to firm ground and no nasties in the weather forecast.

My first choice is Flowers On Venus in the 5 35. I am no fan of the trainer and the first time visor is unnecessary imo but there is no denying her speed (50, 58)advantage over the jolly Edward Lewis (37). 6/1 with William Hill currently but shortening everywhere. May end up fav, where it belongs.

V.
More to come..

The 4 00 @ Newmarket is a 7 runner 3 y.o. 0-90 handicap run over 7 furlongs. There are some good form figures on hand and three of them won l.t.o. (last time out). Lets start with them:

Justice Smart will be found in the market as its trainer is Sir Michael Stoute and he excels with 3 y.old maidens and handicappers. This JS's handicap debut having won a Bath Maiden. Several factors count against it here, however,
1. Its back in trip;
2. It's time (adjusted for class) made it the slowest race of the day, and
3. Its by Kyllachy out of a Cadeaux Genereux mare and the good ground at Bath may have been ok for it but the G/F ground today will be against its soft ground breeding.(Kyllachy is a Pivotal)

Miss Carbonara won a 5 race maiden run in the slowest time of the day at Leicester and similarly drops back a furlong here.

Trenches, on the other hand got within .8 second per mile of  the fastest race on the card adjusted for class over this very course and distance and, moreover, is a War Front and therefore will relish this ground. When you consider that card included Franklin D and Trenches was .3 second per mile faster adjusted for class than the subsequent Goodwood gamble and the runner up In The City has just won and franked Trenches we have have a bet at 9/2 with Betfred.

Silk Cravat has been penalised by the handicapper for losing, Dream Mover is slow , Take The Helm out of form and Fighting Temeraire has a speed figure equating to over 10 lengths behind Trenches, yet is currently shortest in the betting.

Trenches could be a nice price winner to add to Godolfin's tally..

Vitavox

nice writeup ,gl

I think the OR for Highland Colori is still 92,he runs today from 4lb out of the handicap.Well done yesterday.

Oh This Is us is also running out of the weights. It's the conditions of the race, not the handicapper's doing.

Also, I don't see why you say Squats loves the July course. He's only run on it once, was 8th of 17 then, and put up a lower RPR than his outings before and after.

Interesting write ups and I wish you luck but on early evidence it doesn't look as if you'll be giving up the day job anytime soon.

Early days Cash...haha..(cant say I was pleased with my day yesterday, however...)

Time to look at the Nunthorpe:

My entry into this race is via Profitable winner of the King's Stand Stakes (Group 1). The Kings Stand, 6 weeks down the line is looking in tatters. I know a couple of the also rans have shown their form since (notably Meccas who was in season then, and take Cover who is transformed at Good wood, as we all know, ) but the Second has been 13 and 8th since, the third, 10th and 11th, the fourth 15th and 14th and the fifth, 17th. Profitable itself has been 4th since to Limato - just a fair result which wouldnt be enough to justify favouritism at York.

Mecca's Angel must have a graet chance having won last year's renewal with all the usual suspects behind - Mattmu (3rd), Sole Power (4th), Goldream (5th) and Muthmir (6th). That Nunthorpe was the fastest race of the day adjusted for class, but the going was soft and this will have inconvenienced 2 horses who could conceivably turn the tables on the flying mare - Goldream and Acapulco.

I gave Mecca's an 80 in G/S there
but she has not quite reached those heights this year - 66 behind Profitable (68)
in the Temple and arguably a 72 on her latest race at the Curragh where she had Sole Power a similar distance behind as in
the 2015 Nunthorpe.

Profitable repeated its 68 in the Kings Stand and seems to have plateau'd.

Easton Angel has a better figure and is running well again but is held by Acapulco on the 2015 Queen Mary where Acapulco, the winner, returned a spectacular 80 (which I have subsequently pegged to 76). When beaten by Mecca's in soft ground that didnt suit her she ran a 74 with I. Ortiz in the plate. Given good summer ground and with Ryan Moore on board I anticipate Acapulco returning a 78/79 which may well be good enough to turn round last year's Nunthorpe second into a win.

At the current 7/1 I want to be on Mecca's.

All this assumes Ward's Lady Aurelia, if she turns up at York, goes for the 6 furlong Lowther - which is her proper race and gives Moore a ride in each. I thought she was going away over 5 at Ascot so I hope connections are thinking that's her race.
Her drift lately in the betting gives me confidence thar's the case.

Putting forward Gold Hunter in the 2 30 Chepstow @ 5/1.

Vitavox - There are those posters on this forum who are brave enough to stick their heads above the parapet. The vast majority however wait for those moments to hurl criticism and abuse at those that have taken a stance.

Whilst I am dubious of your method, I applaud your willingness to take a stance. As I said earlier, I wish you luck.

Cant wait for Kealy and Segal to show up so opting for Lydias Place in the 7 50 Yarmouth. I fear the jolly - Cosmopolitan Girl who was second in an Ascot 0-85; but Lydia's is going to relish the non-watered Yarmouth going and with 15-30Km per hour winds forecast to blow till 7 45 the ground should be genuinely g/F by off time. Her speed figure is slightly superior at 50 compared with 47 and so is her price 7/1 (taken) as opposed to 11/4.

The only way is up

How can they take the first 2 weeks of August off! Part-timers!

Ok, i'll switch the confrontation to 'Betting Advice' - its the main column, and Pricewise (whoever is in the seat).
The 8 20 at Newmarket tomorrow (Friday) is a betting race. The favourite (Solar Flair) beat 3 horses in a 0-95 at Nottingham who have finished 11th, 9th and 11th n.t.o.,so I am eliminating it.
Excellent George is joint fav but only won a 0-80 and is up 5 lbs - this wont be enough against both Intensive Style and Guishan. Guishan's 3rd in a 0-93 reads well after the subsequent performances of David's Duchess and, notably, Stellarta's 4th in the Steward's Cup Consolation . The Consolation was run faster than the main race when adjusted for class and this shows Guishan in a terrific light.
I rate Intensive Style a big danger - a 0-105 3rd in good company would normally be enough but that was in the soft and Guishan looks the safer option with only showers forecast to fall on good ground. Tactical betting on both these might pay off but i have to put one forward and Guishan (9/1 with Betvictor at the mo) is the one for me.

Thankyou Onlooker for your observation.
My answer would be that a pundit worth his salt should be equally adept at ordinary handicaps as well as the glamorous high class fayre. There is no 'void' imo.
Tbh my timing wasnt influenced by the racing calender.
It was influenced by having just completed a month's trial of my selections proofed to Lee Mottershead of the Racing Post. It was then time to look around for the next challenge.

V.