D. Phil takes on Segal and Kealy.

Purple Rock 3        60
Taraz 4        58
Age Of Elegance 1        57
Abareeq 6        56
Save The Bees 5        56
Peterhouse 7        53
Intiwin 2        44

My best today is

Bond Bombshell 1            60
One Boy 8            52
Fujin 5            52
Krystallite 3            48
Mappin Time 2            48
Summer Isles 7            48
Whozthecat 9            47
Flicka's Boy 4            41
I'll Be Good 6            32

gl

Nemoralia withdrawn from Hungerford 11 34 a.m.

Dave Orton's rotation in the racing Post 'Betting Advice' today - let's see if its good advice or bad advice..

Dave goes for Dubka in the 3 40 at Salisbury. This filly beat a horse I backed, Shafafya, l.t.o in a 4 horse 0-85 in the soft at Doncaster. Dubka looked a fairly comfortable winner and Raceform described the victory as 'straightforward'. Dave, however, seems to have been more impressed: that 'clearcut win' means that Dubka, 'a fast improving filly', has 'an outstanding chance of taking her career record to 3 wins in 4 outings'. Phew! Oh yes, a favourite amongst the RP staff - she gets the weight allowance as a 3 y.o. filly to boot. Sounds unbeatable right?

Unfortunately, it is all too easy to make out a great case for a horse in the paper without the benefit of debate and criticism and Dave has failed to mention that Shafafya finished 8th of 8 n.t.o when it was raised to a 0-90 so what chance has Dubka got in todays 0-100, of an 8 lb higher mark?

Zonderland is selected (EW I admit) to beat a horse it has already been soundly beaten by, which brings me to his 3rd selection: Fashion Parade in the 5 15 @ Salisbury.

Dave's case for Fashion Parade rests on the fact that Great Thoughts, 3rd to FP at Windsor won next time out at Wolver; that 'her racing style' and the fact that she has improved for every step up in trip so far means that 'this even stiffer test should spark another peak effort'; that she is well bred and entered in a Group 1 'a clear measure of the regard in which she is held at home'.

Again it sounds jolly convincing until the argument is subject to a bit of scrutiny. Great Thought's win was the slowest of the day at Wolver (adjusted for class), Fashion Parade's last 2 wins have been the slowest of the day, and she is being asked to go another 2.5 furlongs beyond what she has tackled hitherto. The sire's stamina index is only 9.3 furlongs and the maternal grandsire  is Invincible Spirit - a sprinter.

Alyssa, the jolly, has been impressive but is raised 10 lbs ( a nono, for me), Chelsea Boy, Clear Evidence and Vanishing Point are all slow with dubious form which leaves the horse i am backing (and have backed at 8/1 with Ladbrokes) - RAINBOW DREAMER.

RAINBOW DREAMER has solid form credentials as this Alan King gelding has figures of 3242 since its seasonal debut (and it needed its debut run as a 2 y.o. This gelding will stay all day as it won over a mile plus as a 2 y.o. and has Singspiel on the distaff side - a big influence for stamina. Whats more it has run its best race l'to' over today's trip having been raised 1 lb in future handicaps. It has only raced on soft ground but Singspiel like it firm so I have reason to hope for a lifetime best today on the good/firm. On the 21 May RD ran Red Verdun to 5L with Emperor Napoleon a head behind. Emperor napoleon has won since and l.t.o finished 5th of 12 to Dal Harraild in a hot 0-100 Goodwood handicap.



8/1 looks the value in the field despite being a few spots behind Alyssa (evens favourite) on time.

Vitavox

Enjoying the write-ups, well done.

I suppose it could be argued that Fashion Parade has already out-run stamina expectations, and her sire can get them to stay well, as off the top of my head he's already sired an Oaks winner, and her RPRs have improved with each step up in trip.

They were breaking track records at Salisbury yesterday, so unless it rains or they've watered heavily, they will need to handle quick ground, something your selection has to prove, for all the Singspiel angle offers hope. With that in my mind, perhaps the interesting one is Clear Evidence, who was racing on "good to firm" for the first time when winning last time in that little race at HQ. He's a Cape Cross / Rainbow Quest cross, bred to relish both quick ground and a stamina test, so being unexposed under the conditions and in receipt of a chunk of weight, and with his stable in good form, that's where my pin has landed.

But you've got the 'value', so good luck!

You are  very welcome George - and you know your stuff.
V.

cheveley park stud doing well backing blind, its all bent.

Anyone for Bridge?

If you play you know that the best bit is the post mortem where partners discuss their bidding , their play and where it all went badly wrong (or right).
Doesnt happen on the Morning Line does it?

And we all know why..

Ive yielded to temptation though as although Dave Orton is showing a nice profit on the day (W4/1, W11/8, L) I thought he got away with it. The shortpriced Dubka only won in a photo and the jolly in Zonderland's race was clearly amiss and Sovereign Debt didnt run, so all Zonderland had to beat was a handicapper who last year followed a brilliant run in a handicap with a distant performance in a Group race.

Rainbow Dreamer did me proud and validated my predictions re going preference and staying ability and ran right up to its best against a talented, but capricious filly. Orton's selection Fashion Parade was joint last and clearly failed to stay - a poor choice.

Now working on Saturday's cards..

Nottingham 4 20 1m 6f handicap, O-95.

Sir Michael Stoute trains the 5/2 favourite in this 10 runner £22K handicap. Engage is an 88 rated 3 y.o filly who is getting 13 lbs weight for age and presumably a small sex allowance. She is getting 19 lbs from Forgotten hero who is rated only 6 lbs superior. All over isnt it? Well, imo, it is far from all over...

There is the small matter of class which gets in the way apart from the fact that a 3 y.o. filly is likely to be intimidated by these big old geldings.

Lets eliminate a few to begin with - I cant have Jack Bear who has poor speed figures and was upped 9 lbs for an egg and spoon race; Deauville Dancer makes its seasonal debut, as does Roman flight; Ravenous is a 0-70 type; Sellingallthetime is held by Forgotten hero which leaves the top 4 and the Jolly. The winner will come from these.

Who stays 1 mile 6 furlongs?

Who Dares Wins (won a 0-90 1.75m Sandown)
Intense Tango  (won 1.75m Muss)
Cardinal Walter (0-90 4th York 2miles, 7th North Plate Consolation 2m)
Engage (0-90 2nd Newbury, 1m 5.5f)
Forgotten Hero ?

Who is the class Act?

Forgotten hero (4th 0-110 John Smiths Cup 2015, 0-100 2nd York 2016)
Intense Tango (0-97 first)
Engage  (0-90, second)
Who Dares Wins (0-85, first)

Who has the best time figures?

Forgotten Hero 67, 57 (latest)
WDW 64
Intense Tango 59
Cardinal Walter 57
Engage 57

FORGOTTEN HERO is the selection at the price (9/1 Coral)

FG is by High Chapparal out of a Polish Precedent mare. PP was a miler only but there is stamina on the sire's side, plus FORGOTTEN HERO runs like it needs a bit further - Richard Hoyles described it as 'staying on very well' when runner up over 1.5 miles in its latest second to Yorkidding (winner since off a 3 lb higher mark). Plus it is a winner over 1.5 miles in 2013.

I think its superior class will help it to stay. There is no doubt in my mind it is the best horse in the race - The John Smith Cup is one of the top middle distance handicaps in the calender and that was YORK - this is Nottingham. They are racing for £22K today, compared with £93K then. Also consider the first 6 home that day:

Master Carpenter
Kelinni
Mount Logan
Forgotten Hero
Ajman Bridge
Firefighting

Its a sporting selection with doubts about the form of the competition eg Intense Tango was only 7th in Snoano's Ladies race, nothing has won from Dannyday's race at Newcastle (Cardinal Walter) and Ruscombe and Purple Magic from Engages race have not run since so we are in the dark as to the (short price) fav's form.

Vitavox

Vitavox,

I'm enjoying your write ups but earlier on you stated your figures were more accurate at shorter distance s and as such you didn't go beyond 11 furlongs but yesterday and again today you have gone 1m 6f. ?.

Your making me think about races a little more out of the box though.

Well spotted Desperado. Normally I concentrate on the shorter races (especially handicaps, but no nurseries)but occasionally if I have a qualifier on class and/or time I make an exception.

OK thanks.

Graham Rodway for the Post with 4 selections. (I like to look at graham's copy (often pens the 'Edge' column)because we have contrasting strategies and concepts.)

Saxagogo ('maximum bet material') will win the nursery at Newcastle claims Graham and its 3 points win. Pretty bold for a horse that started 66/1 l.t.o. Cant comment on it though.

Exceeding Power is chosen by GRod(1 point) in the 2 50 at Newbury. For me this is a rag bag of a race full of horses lacking the credentials to win a race of this type. I cant have Graham's selection and I dont agree that the Golden Wedding form has been franked as the 3rd and 4th have since been 6th and 5th. They are all so bad it could win though.

Ocean Eleven (GRod's 3rd pick) has a squeak but its a drifter, and I prefer Silhouette who sports a decent time figure (55) from a strong finishing effort at Sandown. Kismet Hardy has a mere 34 to its name, the second to Kesselring has been done no favours by the winner (5th n.t.o.) and the third (11th n.t.o), and the second to Hollywood Road was in a weak handicap.

Finally he goes for Bahamian Heights in a trappy sprint handicap I am steering well clear of.

V.

So, my selections today are

FORGOTTEN HERO   NOTT 4 20
SILOUETTE 5 35 NEWB

SILLOUETTE - taking 7/2

Great shout (Saxagogo) from GRod yesterday.

Dutybound to tackle the C. J. Murfitt 6f 0-105 handicap @ Newmarket today as Mel Cullinan, standing in as Pricewise, selects 2 horses to win it: Projection and Elronaq.

Cant argue with MC re Projection when he claims it has 'two fine runs in top handicaps' and 'has first rate claims in this weaker contest'. (Actually when I looked at this race Thursday evening I made Projection the likeliest winner.)

Mel has stolen 10/3 and its now around 9/4. Now Tom Segal would have eschewed this price and looked for a sporting bet lower down the market - and thats what I shall do.

We can dispose of Elronaq straightaway. His latest run has been let down by David's Duchess average run behind Highly Sprung and that Yarmouth performance was decidedly slow giving it little chance of matching strides with the speedy Projection.

As they say in football, this is a race of 2 halves. The bottom half is a 0-90 from Powerallied south; north of Powerallied there is a 0-105 from Elronaq upwards. We shall concentrate on the top half of the handicap as those below wont live with their pace.

Elronaq is gone so that leaves

Mont Kiara
Muhadathat
Aclaim
Projection

Projection beat Mont Kiara in the Betfrad Mobile 0-101 when MK was officially rated 89 - its now 95 so it cannot reverse with Projection who has only gone up 1 lb.

Muhadathat was a decent third in a 0-98 to Kadrizzi but only recorded a 50 speed figure there and in any case in front of it was Flying Pursuit who in turn was 4 places behind Projection in the aforementioned Betfred Mobile. So, logically that places Muhadathat behind Projection (and Mont Kiara for that matter).

Which leaves Aclaim as the sole remaining runner who could spoil Roger Charlton's party.

In terms of speed figures the standouts are Projection (68, 69) and Muhadathat (69 in a previous race) and Powerallied (60) - Aclaim has nothing to bring to the table in terms of figures. But that's not the end of the story. Imo speed figures are dependent on class, or related to class and whilst a 0-100 handicapper may have great figures when it meets Group 3 rivals it often records lower figures. So it is possible that a horse coming from a Group race (with pace to match) could outrun a handicapper even though it is theoretically slower.

This COULD  be the case here.

If you go back to the 29th May at Naas, Aclaim ran third to Only Mine and Washington DC in a group 3 on good ground. Aclaim returned a 55. However, Only Mine has confirmed the value of that performance with another Group 3 place when it was behind Divine, and Washington DC has since run Take Cover close in the Group 2 King Geo. Stakes at Glorious Goodwood recording a 71, with these horses behind it

Goldream,
Easton Angel
Marsha
Muthmir
Pearl Secret and
Cotai Glory.

ACLAIM may surprise favourite backers @ 12/1 and, cheekily, I might suggest that Tom Segal could have selected it (just to ruffle Mel's feathers..).- he certainly wouldnt have gone for a hot favourite in a sprint handicap.

I could end up with egg on my face - but it wouldnt be the first time..haha...

Vitavox

Excellent exposition of the race Vita.

I have just hurried back from my local William Hill shop where I placed a bet on COOLMORE in the Beverley D (10 20 a.m.) Arlington. I had half at their 7/1 (best industry price) and half on the Machine.

I am following the French Prix De Diane won by La Cressonierre which is turning out quite well - Volta has run 2nd to Qebec in a Group 1 , Left Hand (the 2nd) has won a Group 3 and Coolmore has gone on to place in a Grade 1 (Belmont Oaks Invitational to the prolific mare Catch A Glimpse)worth £363,000. This may well be good enough to triumph in the Beverley D as Ballydoyle, the other Coolmore representative in the Bev D finished just behind my selection in the Diane and the jolly, with whose form I am of course not familiar, Sea Calisi, was 2nd in a race worth only (!) £187,00. Tentatively this makes Coolmore  something of a bet at 7/1.

I had a 78 for Coolmore in the Weld Park Stakes as a 2 y.o.- that is my Group 3 par time -  and as it has raced abroad it has escaped the attention of the hacks over here, so its a decent price.
I made a note against it in my Form Book, 'not soft', so todays firm ground will suit (Storm Cat is the maternal grandsire).

A hopeful suggestion but we Europeans often win in Arlington and Coolmore know where to place their charges to advantage.

Vitavox

So - 1 point Tote, 1 point Win 7/1 COOLMORE.
(2 staked)
(Thanks for kind remark Ebor..)

I'm passing on the Great St. Wilfrid for 2 reasons - I dont bet at Ripon because of the contours and the draw bias (which can switch from meeting to meeting) and ,secondly, I cant make head nor tail of it. It would be a waste of time and might cause anyone following this column to lose money.

But I have to play the game and take on Keals's 'Saturday Sizzlers' somewhere along the line so I'm choosing the Ridgeons Fillies Nursery which opens the card at Newmarket.

Here goes..(despite the fact I never back in nurseries!)

Going through the field i notice straightaway that there isnt a single filly who has done a respectable time and certainly no filly who has the credentials to win a Class 2 handicap. I suppose Clef's 4th to Rajar in a £25K nursery is pick of the bunch on form, and it helps it was this track and going, but if its any faster than advertised the Dutch Art/Pivotal breeding might count against it,(and it has a furlong further to go).

Paul selects Shozita who won a Salisbury maiden on her sole start but I cant recommend it on time (speed figure 33) and the form is untested so I dont see what its got going for it. Being 'impressive' without the back up in terms of figures and collateral form is insufficient.

I turn to Richard Hannon's topweight SOMEBODY TO LOVE as a solution to this problem. Why? Well, it knows the course as its run here the last twice in a Listed and a Group2 , so it arguably has a class edge. In the first of those races Sean Levey excused the lowly placing (7th of 7)by claiming SOMEBODY TO LOVE was unsuited to the heavy ground. It didnt do much better behind Roly Poly, you might argue, when it was  8th of 10, but that was the Cherry Hinton and Hannon may have had an eye on this nursery when he was instructing Atzeni for that race - she was 'slowly into stride..no chance, but kept on steadily'.

Its not inconceivable that my selection will be suited by the extra furlong and this race could feel like a walk in the park to her after trying to compete with Group class fillies. She can give the weight.

8/1 everywhere. (And I shall be claiming a moral victory if I finish in front of Shozita who is 5/2 best.)

V.

I've some bad news for you Vitavox, I've gone for STL too on my thread and I can't buy a winner at the moment!

But as for Shozita, I'd be very worried about her, because it could be argued she won despite not having the race run to suit at Salisbury. She was dropped in from the widest draw and was keen off a steady pace, and although she might not have beaten much, it was taking how she picked up to go past them and put the race to bed.

She's a sizeable filly, out a Tiger Hill mare with plenty of stamina on that side of the pedigree, so there could be loads more to come, and if that's the case, as Kealy points out, the handicapper has been very fair with her mark given what the 2nd and 3rd at Salisbury are rated.

Going at Arlington is firm for the ensuing races - good news for COOLMORE and Ballydoyle. Incidentally the jolly Sea Calisa is drawn wide 13 of 14; Coolmore in 6 of 14.

Some headscratcher results today, I thought. A good day for the Poets Word Goodwood race - 2 winneras today from it - Carry Me Home, Cosmeapolitan.

Mel C, Pricewise, selects Ribchester at 11/4 to win in France. It has narrowed Galileo Gold's superiority from 3.5L to a short head but can it beat a horse who has 2 victories over it? There has to be a doubt..
It's an interesting race this Jacques Le Maurois as Stormy Antarctic will tell us where to position the flying Zelzal who beat it in the Prix Jean Prat in a good time (with the useful filly nemoralia in 4th). That form could conceivably be as good as the Sussex won by The Gurkha because the Goodwood race was not impressive timewise as the St James's Palace.. Galileo Gold gets a 67 for that and Ribchester 66, compared with the 76 I gave GG at Ascot. The questio arises was the earlier figure too big?

If I have overestimated Galileo Gold (and Ribchester is completely joined at the hip with it) then the Prix Jean Prat comes into the picture as the dominant formline in today's Deauville feature. I have Zelzal with a 75 and Stormy Anatarctic  with a 73, and that looks feasable because Nemoralia gets a 70 on that and a 75 in the Coronation. Connections say Nemoralia ran below form in France (the 5 point drop) but what if it didnt? If Nemoralia ran the same race then Stormy Antarctic equates to Qemah who beat Nemoralia the same distance at Ascot as Stormy Antarctic beat it in France.

1 point 20/1 STORMY ANTARCTIC is the logical bet.

Vitavox

3 15 Thirsk 0-75 7f handicap.

I like PICKETS CHARGE in this 8 runner handicap. 11/2 Stan james

Its just about in the grade (though I would prefer a 0-70, connections said they would like softer ground for it in their comments after one of its 2 year old races, so the G/S today is fine and the form of its Thirsk 4th l.t.o. has worked out well with the 2nd 3rd and 5th having won 4 races between them since.

On time PL has the edge also 54
Semanta Santa 43
Popsies Joy 32, 33
Coronation Day 30 (turf).

Richard Birch's 3 are Seamster 3 45 T
Gaelic Wizard  5 45 T
Rio Ronaldo 7 30 W.

Vitavox

Before the Community gets carried away with Ribchester being the next big thing it would be wise to consider the breakdown of the (turf) times for the day at Deauville:

Cleonte 4.2 secs per mile fast
Wireless 3.1   "
Ribchester 2.3     "
Xaarino 1                "
Golden Valley 3.7     "

Adjustments to the absolute times have been done (age, sex, class) so a direct comparison can be made and a judgement as to how fast each race is compared to its class par time.

A priori, (and this is purely the process I go through - other clockwatchers may be slightly different), Cleonte is said to have set the class par reference as the fastest and the others are taken to be slower than their class par by the difference with the best: so Wireless is taken to be 1 sec per mile slow where .6 second is the difference between classes. Thus Wireless is judged to have run about 1.5 grades slow. And then a figure is attached.

It can be seen that Ribchester has run 1.9 seconds slower than its class par - a relatively poor time. This can be illustrated by looking at the actual time the 5 year old handicapper Wireless did over the straight mile - 1m 36.55 - and the time Rib did in an all-aged Group race over the same straight mile 40 mins later - 1m 36.16. Only .4 second quicker! (Should have been 1.5 seconds or so).

Galileo Gold has now taken his field along too slowly the last twice and this time he pulled for his head and spent valuable energy fighting the jockey. OK so Frankie has now ridden 3000 winners but he failed to beat half the field in the races he rode in at the Shergar Cup and GG was not given a chance at Deauville - he is crying out for a pacemaker.

Though he won Ribchester returned a 5 length lower figure than he had done in the Sussex (61 compared with a 66). Neither figure is anywhere near the genuine Group 1 class par figure of 80.

As for the Beverley D at Arlington what happened to the O'brien duo - Coolmore and Ballydoyle? It is hard to come to terms with their 10th and 12th placings.It does not bode well for our milers in the Breeders Cup and it is a body blow to La Cressonierre's form. Maybe something will emarge...It couldnt be that the Irish stable has got the bu, could it?

Vitavox

My standard times in France are not as rigorous as my British times through lack of data. Topspeed's view will be a useful check on my results.

7 30 Windsor

Richard Birch has gone for Rio Renaldo in this sprint handicap and there is no doubt it is a leading contender; but I take issue with a number of his claims:

He says that Growls performances since the Windsor race where it beat Rio Renaldo bear 'the closest inspection' as they were in the Bunbury Cup and Stewards Cup and, by implication, show the Windsor race in a good light. But its what Richard leaves out that is the problem - and that is that Sir Billy Wright who was 3/4 length back in third at Windsor has since let the form down badly, having been unplaced, third and 9 thi inits next three outings.

Ive seen this before in the RP - the journalists find the stuff that sounds good and overlook the inconvenient stuff that spoils the argument.

What he is right about is that RR is 'progressive' as it has achieved better speed figures in itas latest 2 races - but this doesnt sit well with his other claim which is that RR is a Windsor specialist. How can it be a Windsor specialist if its best 2 performances were its last 2 at, wait for it ASCOT!

Vitavox

No luck for Richard yesterday - all 3 beaten. His 'course specialist' Rio Renaldo was slowly away - peculiar behaviour for a horse who is supposed to love the place. So much for his advice that RR was 'a standout betting opportunity', expected to 'power to the front..and score easily.' It was 9th.(If Iwas in better form myself I would have been harder on him.)

Today's advice from Richard is McDelta 2 15 K, Pure Fanatasy 4 00 Ripon and Hazely 5 00 Ripon.

Hazely is a non runner (announced this morning) and this imo is a narrow escape for backers as it had won a mere maiden 0-60 handicap in a slowish time and, unnoticed by Richard, the horse that was second to it in that race was well beaten in the 4 00 o'clock yesterday offering 'no threat' to the winner.

I dont know what time RB submits his copy but it is surely after 4 00pm the day before and it is irresponsible of him to have failed to check up on the current status of his selection's form. If you were contemplating a bet you expect to be informed by a professional tipster that the form is now suspect (even if the winner 'had more in hand than the official margin').

I had singled one out as an EW alternative to Hazely as it was taking a large slice of the market at the forecast 5/2. But now with hazeley out there is no point. For the record it was Silver Shuffle but now its just one of a few who can win and the value has gone. No selection.

Vitavox

Im putting 2 selections up against RB - both 5/2 shots in the first 2 races at Leicester.

GREY GALLEON in the opening nursery on the basis of a good time in a Windsor maiden worth 56.

The remainder:

Lawleaa L. 52, 49
Camargue 47
Lanjano  38
Shamsaya 34

(The Post 'Spotlight' mentions that the second to Grey Galleon was beaten n.t.o. but I have checked my times for that meeting and that horse - Tschierschen - was just touched off in the fastest (jt) time of the meeting, confirming the merit Of GG's form and time.)

And BROADHAVEN HONEY who broke the clock at Beverley in the best adjusted time at that track I have seen this season. Unfortunately nothing close to BH has run out of the race so there's no form confirmation but on time she has 8 spots in hand of Vote.

V.

1 55 York 5f 89x 0-105 handicap.

I shall try to reduce the field by eliminating as many as I can on class and time.
We are looking for a horse who has placed in the first 4 in a 0-105 or better over 5 furongs :

Line Of Reason 0-105 2nd
Boom The Groom 0-105, first
Bowson Fred 0-105 3rd
Duke Of Firenze 0-109 5th
                0-108 3rd
                0-108  3rd
Harry |hurricane 0-105 4th
Hoofalong 0-108 1st
Royal Birth  0-109 3rd
Robot Boy 0-106 2nd
Lexington Abbey 0-106 3rd
Kimberella 0-104 2nd

Baraweez has the class but this is a new trip.

Next we need the fastest or near fastest
horse:
Kimberella 72
Harry |Hurricane 69
Duke Of Firenze 69, 67, 66
Royal Birth 67, 63
Captain Colby 63
Line Of reason 59, 62

Now the form horses:

Tricky this one as there are various strands and one or two of them have come in and out of form at different times:

In general the Tote Scoop6 handicap 9/7/16, Ascot would be a guide to this race but overall it has worked out badly so that eliminates

Royal Birth
Robot Boy
Lexington Abbey
Union Rose
Boom The Groom
Hoofalong
Harry Hurricane

Duke Of Firenze was well down that field but has since run a very good race in the Stewards Cup where Hoofalong, Ninjago, and Kimberella, were behind it. And in the Scottish Sprint Cup D of F had Robot Boy and R. Birth behind. Im interpreting D of F's Ascot form a blip and I am going with recent form (Stewards Cup and I am tossing in the face that DUKE OF FIRENZE is a course winner (12 May) where it beat Brando a subsequent Group 3 winner. When a fine run in the Epsom Dash is considered also it looks like on fast, flat or downhill course over 5 furlongs (or so) D of F is the overall form horse.

Draw - this season you have to be on the far side (low):

Line Of Reason 4
Medicean Man 6
Baraweez 3
Boom T. G. 5
DUKE OF FIRENZE 2
Arctic Feeling 1

Large field requirement rules out Line Of Reason, and leaves DUKE OF FIRENZE as the top qualifier.

I'll take the same 11/1 as Tom Segal.

My other selection is CHISWICK BEY 5 05 Carlisle. It was second in a 0-90 Ladies race last year (ran well in it this year too), is the speed horse and has the smart apprentice Adam Mcnamara aboard. 7/2

I tipped up Broadhaven Honey yesterday - a horse Topspeed (Racing Post) had 9 spots clear on time and which I also had clear toprated having run the fastest class par time this season at Beverley.

BH was 6th of 8 recording a speed figure of 23 compared with 54 l.t.o. (30 lengths slower).

By way of contrast Ed McMahon the trainer had a runner at Ripon called Venutius who had speed figures of 37 l.t.o. and 44 the time before. On this occasion it won (SP 9/1) and recorded a 63 in the fastest race of the day (adjusted).

BH was sent off 9/4 fav and was 'the subject of strong late support' and so a lot of punters did their brains ,and Venutius was a 9/1 winner. No enquiry was called by the stewards.

The Wagon Wheel was just in front of Broadhaven Honey and runs today in the 4 55 York. It will be interesting to see how it gets on....

Looking at past races the need for a Track win and/or AUG win is preferable towards the winner.
Also a higher value win than the prize money on offer.
The last 6 races have seen the winner won at least two higher value wins in 5 of the races.
The latter goes against Arctic Feeling (only Course & Month winner).
Medicean Man seems the best on the high value wins. (Tax Free won this as 10yo with high value wins)

York 1.55
Baraweez 3        87
Bowson Fred 11        79
Boom The Groom 5        75
Move In Time 10        67
Duke Of Firenze 2        66
Soapy Aitken 8        65
There are a few concerns namely stable form but should have the run of the race .
Dettori takes over from an apprentice .
Ran a blinder @ Goodwood and if in the same mood should be there abouts allowing for the draw bias.



GL

Juddmonte later today and I wont be discussing it save to mention that I backed Almanzour to beat these ante post. So I'm a bit disappointed he hasnt made the trip - especially as he won the other day.

Instead I will tackle the Nursery to put it up to the Kealy/Segal axis.
Ive done the times and its very close:

Super Julius 59 54
Nautical Haven 58
The Wagon Wheel 58?
El Torito 57
Storm Cry 57
Parys Mountain 55
Burris hole A. 55
Muta waaheb 52.

Selection is Kevin Ryan's NAUTICAL STAR,  who has just had a winner there, and, although he hasnt targeted this race in the last 3 years (one midfield runner 16/1), this one won his maiden here and the second (re engages todey), Storm Cry has won since. It has a good time done on a Grade 1 track and is trained by a trainer who likes to win at york. The Newmarket stables are under a cloud.

Im not bothered about stall 14 having studied the 1 55 result and they will come down the middle anyway.

11/1 in a place.

Vitavox

Sorry, NAUTICAL HAVEN 4 55 11/1

NB Nautical Haven is part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson who is at the meeting - he was shown on CH4 entering the racecourse.
V.

I have studied 3 races at York tonight and have decided to post early in case Tom Segal steals my thunder again (Duke Of Firenze). In case you wondered I am not an RP premier member so I dont know what he has posted on their site (available from 8 pm the night before).

2 30 York Lowther
3 05 Clipper Logistics
4 55 Eventmaster  3 y. o Fillies handicap

Ive selected the first for betting purposes - the  4 55 is confusing and rejected.

The Clipper :

The most significant piece of form for this race is last years race. Chil The Kite won that in G/S swooping down the middle and pouncing late under George Baker to beat Alfred Hutchinson, Kelinni, Melvin The grate and One Word More. I backed OWM then when the debate was whether it would get a mile having run an excellent 2nd in the Bunbury Cup (7f).

All bar MTG reoppose and there are reasons for thinking the order will be different:

1. Its G/F and that will suit A. Hutchinson and One Word More over Chil The Kite;
2. Alfred Hurchinson is now with O'Meara (both horse and trainer are York specialists)

3. OWM is 11 lbs better off with Kelinni (who is out of form);
4. Going in to the 2015 race CTK had run a great race in the Hunt Cup but this year it has been making up the numbers in Listed and group3 company. Its still a threat though.

Lat Hawill and Mustashry are at or near the front of the betting but LH's 0-95 second doesnt stack up against a Bunbury Cup 2nd (0-105) and Mustashry is behind on the clock against some of these (56).

I gave ONE WORD MORE a 70 in the Bunbury Cup and a 0-108 3rd and a 0-103 third suggest OWM is in the same kind of form this year as last. It will be hard to keep out of the frame from stall 7.

Third Time Lucky may appeal to some (including Paul Kealy in the Weekender) but Fahey is cute and he is waiting for another crack at the Cambridgeshire if you ask me. It has the ability to win the Clipper but I dont think its the target. I could be wrong.

Kelinni was one of my favourite horses last year and I backed it a few times but when it won in Ireland I wasnt on, damnit.

Ive backed ONE WORD MORE and ALFRED HUTCHINSON and they are the selections - 1 point each .

LOWTHER

Fair Eva is odds on for this. She is a Group 3 winner scoring 10 for style and Topspeed makes her banker material on time -

          ' a Topspeed 106 suggests she is a cut above her rivals and it will take an exceptional filly
            to lower her colours on the Knavesmire. She carries huge confidence.' (Weekender p13.)

It has to be agreed that FE is fast and I gave her a 69 (TS and I have different scales for speed figures) in the race he refers to but two of the horses behind have been heavily defeated since and that triggers warning signs for me.

Clem Fandango has an even bigger figure of 74 recorded in the Weatherby's Sales race behind Mrs Danvers (winner since). The 5th Spiritual Lady has also won since so that looks a solid race. But its not a Group 2 is it?

And a Group 2 win is what Roly Poly HAS achieved. That Duchess Of Cambridge at Newmarket  was hard fought in contrast to Fair Eva's 'walk in the park' but it was a deeper race. Roly Poly gets a 3lb penalty for that and both the Sporting Life Preview and Oddschecker 'Verdict' think that the extra weight will enable at least one of those behind to reverse the form. However, I am selecting ROLY POLY to confirm the placings and make all the running again. J. Hefferman takes over from Ryan Moore but that wont make any difference except to the price - a tasty 9/1 for the only filly in the field to have shown the ability to win a race of this class on identical going - good to firm (its a war Front!)

Vitavox

To sum up : ALFRED HUTCHINSON 14/1, ONE WORD MORE 7/1 (Clipper)
(PS Third Time Lucky comes out with a 71 on the 2015 Cambs figures, which makes it toprated but its current figure is a 63)

And ROLY POLY in the Lowther 9/1. (Bit bigger on Betfair as its a win only market and Bookmakers will be wary of the EW in what, at the moment, is a 'dead 8' with an odds on favourite.)

V.

Aug 18, 2016 -- 6:07AM, Vitavox wrote:

To sum up : ALFRED HUTCHINSON 14/1, ONE WORD MORE 7/1 (Clipper)(PS Third Time Lucky comes out with a 71 on the 2015 Cambs figures, which makes it toprated but its current figure is a 63)And ROLY POLY in the Lowther 9/1. (Bit bigger on Betfair as its a win only market and Bookmakers will be wary of the EW in what, at the moment, is a 'dead 8' with an odds on favourite.)V.

Bit cheesed off now I've got the Post in front of me. 'Betting Advice' who I am facing today has claimed 10/1 for One Word more and the betting chart is showing 10/1 in 5 places including High Street bookies who are duty-bound to hold their prices for an hour after shops open. Yet Oddschecker is showing 7/1 best! I think I am justified in claiming 10/1 as well.

Plus Alfred Hutchinson is showing 20/1 in the same chart with Coral and thats now 14/1 on Oddschecker.

I'll leave my 14/1 provided I can claim 10/1 Roly POly (Betbright) - does that seem fair?
Next time I will wait for the Racing Post before I get ahead of myself. I think Roly Poly will start bigger anyway..

For the purposes of my little competition I will be counting all Ron Woods selections in Betting Advice (6) and all Tom Segal's  Pricewise selections (4).

Ron Wood makes a good case for Chil The Kite. Ive been impressed with his analysis a few times. (How's that for a bit of patronisation?)

V.

I wish they did hold their prices for an hour after opening I think 15 mins is the maximum guaranteed

You know a lot then if you think bookies holdb thierprices for a hour. we would all be million aires . and i suppose they let you put what you want on too

ha ha..i'm way out there clearly - but who bets in betting shops now? I cant stand being in one nowadays with all the machines popping away and the MC egging us all on. I used to manage one (an independent) way back when we had to do our own sums and hedging.

Good luck today you two with the punting..

Vitavox

Good luck to you to and I have had a small ew bet on Alfred Hutchison at 20/1 this morning after reading your post though must admit to backing 4 in total in the race

So nearly got the Lowther right - had 14.5 and 15 on Betfair on Roly Poly.

Lets hope for the best with Alfred Hutchinson, Fife - its a good price.

V.

One Word More was unlucky at the start. It obviously has been asked to load last and the horse before it in the queue played up and then One Word More was on edge and reared whilst waiting for entry. it went in and as the jockey was preparing to remove the hood (and that nust be critical because in the past it has been removed late and a slow start ensued)a horse reared in the stalls and D Allen was at sixes and sevens with the hood. It was second last away and then had a mountain to climb.

Its not a big horse but is rated 100 so it ends up with a big weight in a 0-105 but would have 10 stone in a 0-100. Its crying out for a slight drop in class and Rachel Richardson but is she adept with the hood? Has to be left alone for a while as a betting proposition.

I should have paid more attention to the number of runners (5) O'Meara had and the jockey arrangements - the stable jocj chose the right one - Firmament; so how busy were the other 4 the sceptic has to ask. Alfred Hutchinson was in position A travelling well and then faded away under minimum pressure. This is the one to keep tabs on but not at this level now, aged 8. O'Meara has taken it over only this season so he has to give the owners a fairly quick return and some confidence they have made the right choice of trainer. (Sorry, fife..)

V.

No problem Vitavox I backed 4 ew in total and had the 2nd & 4th at 6/1 & 16/1 so very little damage done

Ron Wood lost on all six selections and Pricewise had a 9/2 winner from 4 selections.

V.

Its a pity we consumers of Channel 4 Racing, the racing channels and the Racing Press rarely if ever get a chance to hear the pundits and tipsters who write and speak about racing explain themselves after the race. No post mortems. I believe they would be very revealing of their methods and thinking and improve their accountability. For example, how did Topspeed get the Lowther so so wrong? I would love to hear what he had to say - he rarely goes overboard in such a way (see above) and then to get it wrong is very embarassing and puzzling.

Channel 4 are expert at sweeping failure under the carpet - if their charity bets are losers we hear no more about it but if they taste success up comes the chart with the record of their profit. Do they take us for mugs? If Tarns tips one that's the 'kiss of death', lets face it.

RUK - by contrast they do do post mortems but its udually in 'pace' and 'trip' handicapping instead of form. Of course, 'time' doesnt get a look in. Do they think their customers will find the intricacies of form and time too complicated and will cease to subscribe. Also, their presenters' tone is a bizarre drone by and large and if asked for a judgement call its normally couched in fence-sitting, heavily qualified comments using words like 'might',' maybe', and 'a little bit'. I believe they are instructed not to criticise the horses for fear of offending the owners (who they have to interview).
The paddock information is good though. The presenters experience of what a well proportioned  and fit horse looks like is welcome. I would like Dave Nevison to differentiate between punters who are betting - he just says 'punters'. Is that J.P. MacManus or the milkman?

I shall try to provide post mortems and explain my failures.

V.

Lonsdale Cup Group 2 2m 88x, 2 30 Y

Paul Kealy goes for Curbyournthusiasm here, arguing that the increase in distance to 2 miles should suit it and that it is value to reverse the May form with Clever Cookie. However, that race was the slowest of the day and both of them look out of their depth against a proven Group 1 winning stayer in Trip To Paris. That's not all the top class form TTP has to its name having proved superior to Big Orange twice in 2015 (one at the weights,and 1 outright in the Melbourne Cup when they were 4th and 5th). The winner of this race last year - Max Dynamite - was just 1.5L ahead of TTP in the Melbourne Cup so it can be seen that TTP's failure in the Lonsdale last year was not its form due to having a series of hard races. TRIP TO PARIS comes here fresh this year after a satisfactory warm up race over an inadequate trip and will take this Group 2 on its way to better things. You cannot fault this horse's grand attitude and it is a good bet to beat these lesser animals.

2 points at 3/1

Vitavox

I was delighted to see that Kealy and Segal, with their combined 3 selections, have not nominated my fancy for the opener -

the Skybet First Race Special Stakes 1.5m York 1.55pm.

Tom claims that Shakopee's Doncaster form has worked out well - I disagree. Goodwood Mirage (the 2nd) may have won But Salmon Sushi (3rd) was trounced in a small uncompetitive race n.t.o. and the 4th, Mountain Rescue was only 6th on the AW,plus Shakopee himself was 14th of 17 at Goodwood. His other choice is Sindarban. Leaving out alliteration what other reason is there for backing this? It won the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle fair enough, but the second and third have not won in 4 outings between them since and Sindarban (who only won a 0-85 here) was buried when stepped up in class to a 0-100 n.t.o. So what chance has it in this 0-105?

Paul Kealy goes for Dawn Missile. He says DM was 'really progressive as a 3 year old' , a comment echoed by Raceform, but when you look at it closely it went up 9lbs for beating 5 horses in a 0-80. I dont call that well handicapped plus it has boiled over twice in its races - something that could easily happen again on a muggy afternoon at the Knavesmire. It was beaten 17 lengths last time out weakening quickly in the last two furlongs. Not for me.

At a similar price to the three selections from the Racing Post, and not mentioned as a danger even, I give you model of consistency GOLD PRINCE.

Its right up there on speed figures:

Gabrial's King 69
Gold Prince 69, 67, 59
Stars Over The Sea 67
Barsanti 65.5, 60, 53
Sindarban 67
Yorkidding 59 (70?)56

and classwise it has been second in the Old Newton Cup, 5th in a 0-105 and 4th in the Shergar Cup.

Rhe dangers are Yorkidding of Mark Johnston whose runners are always to be feared in staying handicaps, and another of his, Stars Over THe Sea. However, I question SOTS's Pntefract win in a 0-93, and Forgotten Hero has let Yotkidding's form down badly since (to my cost).

Sheik Obaid runs CD winner Barsanti and the esteemed military tactician's runner has a good chance but its favourite and I prefer to back GOLD PRINCE at what is now, at 12/1, a standout EW bet. Any rain would enhance his chance and I am pleased to see the headgear, which has helped him the last twice, is retained.

Good luck to anyone following me today.

Vitavox

With all due respect to P Kealy he does admit his selection is speculative and was put up at 22/1. I have followed you in on trip to Paris and not just because I am going there for my wedding anniversary at the end of the month

Cracks in the masonry...

I found a crack in Fair Eva's form that nobody had spotted and had a superb bet on Roly Poly as a result.

Similarly, the fact that Stormy Antarctic could only manage 7th the other day behind Ribchester, and that it had finished 2 places in front of Nemoralia, favourite in the Group 3 City Of York Stakes has been overlooked. We all know about the Ascot run behind Qemah and that both that horse and Alice Springs have franked that form but there is a saying - 'you are only as good as your last run..@

So, if the fav is overturned, what could do it?

I submit that JALLOTA, back at York and with the rain forecast, is a sporting bet to pull off an upset. The rest of the field barring Nemoralia are much of a muchness but my selection is as good as any of them on class (none of them have done better than a GP3 second and Jallota does belong to this group) and Jallota's 71 over CD in May just edges it on time (equalled by Forge). Glen Moss is held, So Beloved only rates a 60 and Librisa Breeze is awarded a 69 (g/f) but only got a 44 in the soft in the Hunt Cup.

1 point EW 20/1

Vitavox

Nice write ups Vita. I'm going in with you on Jallota, although Jamie Spencer taking the ride on Nemoralia isn't a positive. Let's hope he gets that one wrong. Also if Charming Thoughts who beat the likes of Ivawood and Muhaarar as a 2 yearold can show anywhere near that kind of form as a 4 yearold then he would be a big worry. May have a saver on him as C Appelby has been producing some good performances out of horses that looked to have gone the wrong way.

Jallota has been tipped by Andy Holding too. A willHill and oddschecker tipster who has had an outstanding year. I think he is a pro punter too. Definitely see it as a positive him tipping this one

As promised - a bit of a post mortem (of sorts).
Gold Prince was  desperately disappointing in the first; Frankie is on a poor run (11 successive losers), but I never blame jocks so I had to look elsewhere. I eventually arrived at the going description given by Goodwood's C of the C who gave the round course going  on July 26th as good to firm (good in places). The time and adjustments gave Elidor a class par time which then devolves to Gold Prince in 5th returning a decent figure . But when I looked at the figures previously attained by the principals I couldnt find a matching figure to the ones they had to be awarded at Goodwood. Ironically, had Notarised, the third at GW, not broken down n.t.o. it would have indicated the Elidor time was not what it seemed. I am drawing the conclusion that the ground was FIRM on the round course and have pegged the time accordingly. If I am correct First Mohican cannot win the Chester 3.15 Sat, and Elidor cannot win the Ebor.

In my defence Barsanti , who won, comes out 1/4 length superior (only) to Gold Prince through Francis Of Assissi (see 4164,and 4734), so you can see why I was recommending the 12/1 EW. Dont you hate it when they collapse 2 furlongs out and the jock strikes up a conversation with the tail gunner, trapsing in last..?

Have to comment on something I heard on the RP 'Postcast ' (recommended). Tomorrow's Gimcrack was the subject of the discussion at this time and Graham Rodway recommends The Last Lion as the winner at the (proverbial) massive price. Where was he this afternoon when The Last Lion's conqueror, Yalta, was finishing last in the Nunthorpe..? Cracking form Graham..(not).

Getting back to today - the drift on the Exchanges re Trip To Paris indicated all was not well with the 2015 Gold Cup winner. And so it proved. Not the horse it was...sacked.

I missed a winner being just too tired to get involved (up since 3 00 a.m.) and lost my composure and my T shirt which I ripped off my back when the horse in question romps home at a decent price. Who says academics are totally in command of their emotions..? Ha ha..

Vitavox

The Postcast referred to above was almost certainly recorded before today's racing so GRod is off the hook. Though he was, as we now know. wrong.

V.
I blame the bubbly I opened (at the invitation of the commentator (who must be 103 by now))  in response to Nick Skelton's superb individual Gold - though in my case its white wine..

Ebor day at York and I am opposed by Paul Kiely and Tom Sgal as Pricewise (PW).

The York card comes with an X certificate imo, having scanned all 7 races.

I shall begin at Chester then - and the listed staying handicap looks only slightly less difficult.
John Gosden runs Muntahaa, a Group placed 3 y.o. in an all aged handicap, so, (and I havent checked) expect some old chestnuts such as ' improving 3 y.o. against exposed older horses' and 'thrown in at the weights receiving the 3 yo allowance'.

For value seekers that equates to 7/4 and 6/1 bar one. It really shouldnt be any less than 3's as it hasnt done a time in the grade (though its AW maiden was super quick for a class 5, yes class 5, maiden. (Alyssa has franked this form since.)Its awarded a speed figure of 52 on these terms, which gives 2 spots to find with FABRICATE on this years form and 8 spots to find on FABRICATE'S best time at Haydock last year when it beat Hernandoeshideaway (won n.t.o) and prior to that beat Stoute's Yarrow who ducks the return on worse terms.

I think that's a clue that Fabricate is up for this as my horse is owned by the Queen for whom SIR Michael Stoute trains. The Queen has an unusually high profile on our racecourses today, eg Diploma, Forth Bridge and it could be a concerted if not orchestrated project to give her a winner in her 90th birthday year. Michael Bell has form (from memory) in getting it done for Her Majesty this year and maybe today is the day (from a handy draw on the inside).

1 point EW @ 10/1

Vitavox

Chester Ah age of past winners; Age 3 6 4 4 5 3 5 7 4 4 4 3 6 6

2 45 Curragh, 1m 6f GP3

Order Of St George won the GP1 Gold Cup and is widely touted as an Arc contender - so it shouldnt have too much trouble picking up this GP 3 from this disparate opposition, should it?

Answer yes - it will have considerable trouble beating the ex american entire CHARMING KITTEN.
Dermot Weld now handles it and this will be the second run for him after a listed place effort f.t.o. (Against benkei who reopposes.)

Still not enough to worry Order of St Geo. there but looking back through the 6 y.old's form there is a neck and 3.25L defeat of Da big Hoss who recently beat Clondaw Warrior in a GRade 3 at Arlington worth £100K plus. Now CW is rated around 108 and so is Charming Kitten so supposing Da Big Hoss is the same horse now as it was 6 months ago that makes Charming Kitted a conservative 8 lbs better than that . Coupled with the 5lbs Charming Kitten gets from Order Of St George thats 121 versus Order Of St Georges' 124.

Considering O'Briens Gold Cup horse has been rated 124 on its Gold Cup form registered at 2.5 miles and today's trip is much shorter there is reason to think it might run a length or two below its best. Charming Kitten has won over 2 miles so 1 mile 6 is closer to its optimum than 1m 6f is to Order Of St George's.

Moreover, CHARMING KITTEN will now be better acclimatised and should improve past Benkei and challenge the fav for the win.
Re time the Gold Cup was a slow race (speed figure 57) and the form is nothing special - the second Mizzou was 6th of 6 in a Group 2, the third was third in a lesser Group 2 and the 4th  Mille et Mille was last of 6 n.to. in France

1 point 10/1 win

V.

Tom Segal has had 2 antepost selections for the Ebor but he doesnt say when he published them, or where. This competition started on July 29 and has exclusively focussed on the Racing Post tipsters. I have all the Posts from that date and cant find the piece detailing the bets. I presume therefore they appeared in the Weekender or before the 29th  and are not, therefore admissable. If anyone can supply relevant info I'd be obliged.
For the time being both (one a non runner)wont count - She Is No Lady and Red Cardinal are the horses - unless I do find them in the Post on or after the 29th.

V

4 50 Sandown 1 mile handicap

This is a 0-80 run on softish ground - so they may spread across the track in the straight. Ive gone through the runners with my normal grids and I've eliminated nearly all of them that have run for one reason or another.

The single best performance was put up by a Pastoral Pursuits 4 y.o. that Eve Johnson Houghton has just taken over from Olly Stevens - HUNGERFORD.
That Chester effort was over todays's distance rain shouldnt be a problem on breeding. Interestingly it has been gelded and has a good record fresh.

Speed figures : with Cricklewood Green out that leaves Unison and Hungerford joint top on 55.

1 point win HUNGERFORD 18/1 Bet365

Pricewise Antepost Ebor selections appeared in Post on Thursday 21st July.

Thankyou for the heads up, RH.

Well, first the negatives:

Kicking myself for not backing my joint -toprated in the 4 50 at Sandown - Unison. It was showing a decent 9/2 shortly before the off I think but I was so intent on chasing Hungerford out on Betfair I failed to take stock and draw the conclusion that it was a gallop or two short and whoever was laying it knew it. That only left Unison as the conceivable winner . What put me off was the runner up to it l.t.o. subsequently  only placing 6th (Boycie). Bah!

Fabricate did ok and repaid EW backers. If you look above you can see I had eliminated First Mohican, so I knew that couldnt place, and I have not rated Duretto this season, so with a few slowies in there it was a bound to place at least. It must have been gambled - went off 4's. Interesting. Dont know how I interested I will be next time, however, as that's as good as it is. (This was the positive bit..)

Charming Kitten clearly wasnt right - it went out to 26 on Betfair. But I am sure I am correct that Order Of St George is overrated.

Where was the GB challenge in this race? O'Brien gets it all his own way doesnt he? Why is that - he's over here often enough (£5 million)!

Another question - why would you want to back in Sandown sprints. Today's race was a travesty.

Vitavox

3 30 Brighton 1m 2f handicap

A small field for this 0-85 handicap and the stand out runner is Al Shahaniya. Competed in a 0-100 2 outings ago on the July course, and l.t.o. ran a creditable 3 rd to Ionization at Chester over 7.5 furlongs.( The second that day, Breakable has since won (at Chester again)).

On speed figures this 3 y.o filly has nothing to fear :

Al Shahiyana 50
Kaths Legacy 41, 42
Trulee scrumptious 38, 42

and Yorkindred Spirit has failed to beat half the field the last twice.

Genuine Approval and Jawaayiz ran poor times last time out and their form doesnt suggest they can match the selection - AL AHAHANIYA.

A doubt exists over the trip but at Carlisle over 7 furlongs Raceform commented that AS 'led inside final furlong ; kept on strongly'.

The booking of inform apprentice star Adam McNamara suggest they mean business. Taking a chance it will act at Brighton.

2 points 3/1

Vitavox

4 30 Brighton 6F handicap.

A 4 horse race, 3 of whom are last time out winners. I'll discuss each in turn..

First, Billyoakes who was beaten last time out into 2nd at Lingfield. A speed figure of 34 leaves Billy with something to find against these in form horses. Overlooked.

Soaring Spirits won a 0-68 over 6 furlongs and this followed a Brighton win over 7 furlongs. 2 solid efforts but it has now risen 10 lbs since the Brighton win and a speed figure of 40 leaves a lot to find here.

Upavon has won 3 out of its last 5 races - the last of them over this trip at Yarmouth recording a 37 only. It is a course winner which is a plus.

The winner is VINCENNTI who just has to repeat his l.t.o CD win in a 0-80 (SF 59) to win this. The second in his win was Summer Chorus who won a 0-100 at HQ last time out. Hard to beat on those outstanding credentials.

2 points 4/1

Vitavox

In order to honour the terms of the competition I should engage with Tom Segal in at least one of the foreign races he enjoys discussing on Sundays. Its usually the classier fayre on offer on a Sunday and I reckon he does his homework on the French Group races.

Let's have a look at Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville.

Run over 1.25 miles, this is a Group 1 with 10 runners, none of whom have won a Group 1. Prima Facie, its going to be open and difficult as there is no strong favourite and form is spread out all over Europe with few connections.

Tom goes for Bateel (SF 54) who is a listed winner over 2 furlongs further and is held by his stable companion Carnachy who has been 3rd of 5 in a Group 3 and last of 6 in a Group 2. Not very encouraging especially as Kallisha, who Bateel beat into second in that Listed race could only manage 5th of 8, beaten 8 lengths at Cork in a Group 3.

The jolly is Bocca Baciata which has a 4.5 length second to Minding to its name and that's good enough for favouritism. Since then it has won a Group 2 over 1m 1f. That was slow and the subsequent fate of the close up 4th, Epsom Icon,who was 8th to Persuasive, is cause for concern over its chances.

It has been 2nd in a Group 1 and won a Group 2 and that has to be respected and not all Group races are properly run.

Of the others Sayana (59) and Sea Front are worth a mention. There is nothing between them on the form of the Listed 1 mile Chantilly  in May, but this is 2 furlongs further and Sayana has been beaten by Epsom Icon who has clearly let it down (see above).

Step Amach may win if you take its recent 3rd to Qemah seriously as there were some decent fillies behind but overall that looks out of line with its form in all previous races. Further, its unproven over 10 furlongs.

By default we are left with ROYAL SOLITAIRE, who boasts exactly the same class credentials as BB - namely 2nd in a Group1 and a win in a Group2. Considering it has proved itself over todays trip (1.25m), has won in good/soft and good ground
ROYAL SOLITAIRE could go well in a poor race and prove a bit of value - which is exactly the name of the game we (and Pricewise) are playing.

1 point win Pari Mutuel (cant see the French racegoer backing a German horse, can you?)

Vitavox

In today's (Sunday) Racing Post -

'Thought For The Day : you cant beat an apprentice in the Ebor. Adam McNamara was the fourth claimer to land the prize in the last seven years , and he was followed home by fellow apprentices Clifford Lee and Oisin Orr'. p5

Pity Kevin Morley in his 'Big Race Trends' on the Ebor failed to notice this fact.

Yesterday at Brighton - some thoughts..

2 30 : sprint handicap won by King Crimson. Dodged a bullet here because initially I fancied Extrasolar on his good 2nd last time out. However, I noticed cheekpieces first time and after looking back I saw it had worn blinkers twice before - 5th at Newmarket and 6 (nearly last at brighton (2015). So i swerved it amd lo and behold it ran badly yesterday as it had before, hanging both times. Ended up a 5/1 shot and finished last. Pays to do your homework. What were they thinking..?

Al Sahahiyana was beaten a sh - my selection. No complaints. 3 30

Vincennti was only third in the 4 30 and clearly unsuited by the slow pace. I wondered if something was up when I saw a very late 2 point drift on Betfair. It can do better than this - I had better say no more...I fancied it for my life.

Really enjoyed studying the French Group 1 - it was a real puzzle and I was pleased with my analysis - I rejected PW's selection Bateel readily enough and the jolly but failed to push through to Speedy Boarding. There was a piece of form when it beat Siljan's Saga in a Group 2 which was equal to my selection's best and I duly registered that  SS had gone on to run close up 3rd to Silverware in the Grand Prix De St Cloud. What stopped me selecting it was the abysmal showing in Ireland next time out. Inconsistent - maybe it can only show it in France (I shall be remembering that..)

V.

3 15 Car. 6f handicap 0-70

Three withdrawals this morning including Fyrecracker who needs firm ground so I conclude its raining.

MERCERS ROW wont mind the rain as it won on g/s AT Ponte last year and his sire is bahamian Bounty (by Cadeaux Genereux).

It had raced in better company last year and has dropped in the weights; a prominent showing with headgear  (retained) signalled an imminent win and a reasonable draw gives it every chance of a win. Top speed figure and Ypres and Fyrecracker were 2 big dangers not now with the field

7/1

Vitavox

Regular readers will know that this thread is all about measuring my skills and abilities against those of the Racing Post's tipsters, so its especially apt that today, at Kempton in the 8 20, 2 of them , Richard Birch and Graeme Rodway, argue the case for the same horse - Pointel.

They say rhat Pointel has good form, is well weighted, will stay the trip (over which it is untried), and G-Rod adds that Fanshawe, the trainer has an excellent strike rate and level stake profit at Kempton of £58 over the last 5 seasons, so we dont need to worry about this new surface for it.

Is this all true?

Pointel's form is a Classified Stakes win from 4 other runners at Nottingham over 1m 2f.Tap The Honey was second and has yet to run again, but in claiming the form has worked out well RB cites the runaway win of the well beaten Rubenstein on the AW n.t.o. This is slightly dubious as the Nottingham race was on soft and it could be it was unsuited to it. The subsequent running of the 3rd (which RB says is creditable) may be a better guide, imo.Kings Gold (the 3rd) has been  3rd in 2  0-75
handicaps in fields of 7 and 6 runners since - the mosrt recent one being run in the slowest race of the day. That's far from flattering to Pointel. Further,Pointel's earlier form when 3rd in a Windsor maiden it was 1.25L behind the second Endless Acre who was only 4th n.t.o. and the the horse a neck behind Pointel was 6th n.t.o beaten 50L. The next horse was the Otmoor Poet who has merely performed adequately since.

Pointel receives weight for age as does Athlon, Richard point outs, but the latter has risen 14 lbs in the weights so he feels confident his selection has the beating of the jolly.

However, there is another 3 y.o. in the race he totally fails to mention as a danger - REHEARSE - trained by inform A. Balding and ridden by Buick. This has a better class 0-80 3rd at this track (so has AW form) over a trip a furlong further than his chosen horse in a better time (55). (Plymouth Sound should not be a danger within a few days at Kempton over the 1m 3f it ran 2 seconds slower than Rehearse, Sabre Rock is a possibility with a good 4th (SF 47) and Sandy Cove is back in trip (which I dont like) in a slow Yarmouth 0-75 handicap.

REHEARSE is even a bigger price than Pointel.

Cracking bet at 9/2 (1 point EW)
V.

Are there any 'Running Totals' for this project?

Aug 22, 2016 -- 1:10PM, onlooker wrote:

Are there any 'Running Totals' for this project?

Good question Onlooker - i'm updating after racing today. There is a figure on August 7th (see above) but Ive had a lean spell since so nowhere near as impressive now.

V.

Here are the speed figures for the Kempton 8 20

REHEARSE 55
Athlon   52
Pointel  42 (13/6) 25 (2/7)
Sabre Rock  47

Vitavox

PS Rehearse features In The Wings on the distaff side and is therefore loaded with stamina; guaranteed to get the 1.5 miles against doubts for the other 2 market principals, hence the EW.

strange one that vincentti.

drifts like a barge,unruly at start slow away and jockey drops whip quite easily around the 2f marker and then finishes quite strongly into a never nearer third.

perhaps the horse is just one of these moody old characters?

declared to run at lingfield wednesday with o murphy booked, be interesting to see how he goes.

Accounts.

Vitavox BF 16 points staked 28.25 returned.
Since then 41 points    "   21 . 00  "
Total      57 points    "   49 .25   "    13.6 % loss

Racing Post
        BF 51 points staked 29.35 returned
Since then 96 points   "    79.70 returned
Total     147 points   "    109.05 returned 25.8% loss

Vitavox

CAPTAIN FELIX 3 30 Yarmouth

CAPTAIN BONG 1 point win. Improved performance in bl. l.t.o.

V. 4 30 Y

The long losing sequence continues with my selections running lbs below their form..

Paul Kealy also bemoans 'the absolute shocker' he had at York. Is it the bug that's going around to blame? I dont know but we plough on...

Ive taken to getting the Weekender to get a line on Paul's thinking approaching the weekend and he makes some interesting and valid observations re the Doom Bar Celebration Mile due to be run at Goodwood Saturday.

He argues that both the front two in the betting , Thikriyaat ans Zonderland, have neither the form nor the rating to justify their market position, discusses Toormore chance together with that of Arod and Gabrial, and then lights on a possible improver traine by William Haggas - Hathal.

By way of promoting seasonal debutante Hathal's chance he cites Haggas's excellent record with horses returning from a long absence and then says

'Hathal was improving fast when we last saw him and time has shown he was attempting the impossible when trying to conced 7lbs to My Dream Boat in a handicap in last year's Ebor meeting. The winner had risen 19lbs by the end of that season and a further 11 lbs this season.'

But, against Kealy, Get Knotted, the third at York, has not shown similar improvement; and ,indeed was beaten 12.5 lengths into third in a 0-90 n.t.o. Maybe that wasnt a fair reflection of Get Knotted, but it remains that Get Knotted began the year rated 87 and on its second outing won a 0-85 off 85.

Do we align Hathal with My Dream Boat or Get Knotted? You choose.

Vitavox

Ron Wood is in the chair for the racing Post today. He has had 2 placed but I want to oppose his third choice - Dune Dancer in the Kempton 8 10.

It's hot favourite and this seems to be based on a piece of form involving Muzdawaj who has beaten DD but has won since off a 5lb higher mark, franking the form. However, before that win Muzdawaj was only 4th of 5 in a slow 0-90 - it was the application of blinkers in its next run that could have sparked the improvement. This is entirely possible as Torremar who was close up behind DD has only managed a 4th and a 5th since (beaten 12L in one of them).

The opposition Dune Dancer faces here is a bit better class with a couple of opponents who have at least as good or better credentials.

The bet is 2 points Dune Dancer to lose at evens. So I am laying Dune Dancer (2 points) timed at 8 00 pm.

Vitavox

Thankfully Dune Dancer was beaten. (And a had a few quid on the winner on the side.) (The top 2 came out (trained by R. Charlton and David Simcock) - I wonder why? I'm not used to AW and most nons are due to the ground on turf.)

Thinking of taking an interest in Kempton (not just because of tonight); it looks a straightforward test and the cutaway makes it fair in the straight.

Anyone got any thoughts on whether turf form translates to Kempton's surface (and vice versa)?

Impressed by James Tate in the 6 40 with Mukaabra - nicely done. When I looked back far enough I found a nice speed figure for it which gave it a length over North Creek. Cursing as I normally look at every run of every horse that season and sometimes last season. He put cheekpieces on.

V.

Competition ends Friday midnight.

Paul Kealy pens today's Betting Advice in the Post. He picks 3 and the first is Rosebride in the 3 10 - a 6 furlong nursery.

Storm Cry is the favourite and it drops in class here having run a smart 3rd at York. Its trained By Mark Johnston and put up sparkling figures for me at Ripon before York.

It has a n identical SF at York of 54. There is one who could rival it at a big price - Many a Tale (55) but as there is little form from the Wolverhampton maiden it made its debut in I cannot recommend it as a selection.

But its a big price...

V.

5 15 Thirsk 7 furlong handicap.

Some of the fancied runners here have some holes in their form : Doctor Bong's subsequent running has let down Chaplin Bay, and the Form involving Run to The Hills and Marbooh has been let down by Trenches and the Marbooh 6th to Palnerston might not be good enough here anyway.

I am taking a chance that King Of Swing (w/o headgear) may not pull and a return to its best course and distance may see it home at 20/1 currently with Betfred.

KING OF SWING 1 point EW

V.

(5 15 Thirsk)

Further, More Beau (selected by Spotlight in the Post)is trying a new trip and, whilst it might benefit from that, it finds itself in slightly better company than it has faced in its last three outings. Mercer's Row did the Danish Duke (MB 5th)form a good deal of harm with a lacklustre effort next time out. Buccaneer's vault has a chance but won a 0-75 with 10 stone and there's nowhere to go after that but up in grade.

SFs :

King Of Swing 58
Chaplin Bay 53
Buccaneers Vault 52
More Beau 51
Run To The Hills 48AW
Marbooh 33 turf, 26 AW

Congrats to Paul Kealy's 10/1 winner. The Post lost no time in a advertising the fact on their front page - 'that's tipping' they declare...

Today its Maestro Mac 3 45 New, Eccleston 4.05 Thirsk and Cool Bahamian  5 30 New.
Its a certainty he is unaware of this thread otherwise he'd be doubling up the stake and going for broke to improve the Post's figures.

He makes a good case for Eccleston who is useful when right.

Vitavox

Just a note Vita to say I am enjoying reading your commentaries - informative insight.

same for me vitavox - i have enjoyed your informative thread, finished soon i believe, gl for the rest of the season

Thanks hkr and Eborman. I've enjoyed the challenge - just wish the second half of the month had gone as well as the first!

I must say, as a newbie I am surprised at the good manners of the members. (I didnt know what to expect..)

Keep you eyes peeled between now and the close of play. Have some tasty bets to sign off with; but I am playing cards close to chest..

V

NB James Tate, who got a mention in this column above, won with his only runner today (Law and Order) - that makes 4 on the trot.
V.

4 05 Thirsk 6 f 0-95 handicap.

A soft ground 0-95 handicap at a track where low numbers have been favoured in the past and also at the last meeting here.

PK has flagged up last year's winner, Eccleston, and made a great casr for it. As a result it has been backed in to 9/2. It is very well drawn in 16 and has enough 'early' to take advantage.

Alongside Eccleston, however, is soft ground loving My Name is Rio and he is up to this classwise having won a 0-90 last year. It was beaten in this race last year when not that well drawn and cant beat Intense Style on the Orion's Bow race at Hamilton on the 15th July.MY NAME IS RIO, that day was unfavourably drawn in the middle and 2 horses drawn around it and who raced centre have won since. (Including the Great St Wilfred winner - Name it what youlike.
V

11/1

Oops - got that wrong. Michael Dodds  - he entered three, withdrew on and won with the outsider coming from the worst draw. Good performance from the winner. Time will be interesting.
V.

4 55 New. 1m 5f fillies handicap

There are three multi winning filllies in this race and one of them, Purple Magic is the favourite. Fashion Parade is another - but that filly was well and truly found out l.t.o. when I strongly opposed it - and Lady Makfi is the third. The Makfi filly has completed a hat trick which takes some doing, but all races were on the AW and she faces stiffer opposition here.

Said by Spotlight to prefer softer ground than she will encounter here, Purple Magic is another 6 lbs higher than for the win at Newbury, and the second that day, Engage, did not advertise the form next time out.

With proven ability to act on fast ground, coupled with every likelihood of staying the extra furlong and with 10 spots in hand on time, PERESTROIKA, is the confident pick.

Aavailable at a generous 3/1. 2 points advised.

V.

KING OF SWING, advised above was 20/1 prior to the withdrawl of 2 horses. After those 2 cam out K of S was available at 14/1 with several bookies on Oddschecker. So that's what it will be settled at (if successful). I've lost the third place, of course.

V.

Ice Age has just been beaten into 3rd at Ffos Las - this will affect your assessment of Paul Kealy's Cool Bahamian in the 5 30 at Newmarket.
V.

7 00 Newcastle 1m fillies handicap.

This isnt much of a race. Dominannie is out - which is a pity as I thought it was a false favourite. Fidelma Moon now takes over that rule but this hardpulling type has proved a bit of a handfull for Jordan Vaughan in the past and it could go haring off in front here, setting it up for the 'closers' as they l;ike to say on RUK.

Flint Fell has a decent AW speed figure on its debut but you had to send out search parties for those around it next time out so I figure it was flattered and is no danger despite having experience of a synthetic surface.

Barwah too can act here and is a course and distance winner but is not a 'time' horse.

Which, by default, leaves Fray as a possible winner. Its a 'bridle' horse (and that's not a compliment) but it has anexceptional piece of form which if it could reproduce it would see it home in this company. That was a 4th to Boots And Spurs at Doncaster (lefthand turning as here). Raising Sand and Johnny Cavagin have won out of it and the winner was a decent 2nd n.t.o. That was a 51 against Fidelma Moon's 49. I hesitate because this filly owes me money and I seldom give them another chance..but heregoes

1 point FRAY. 7/2

v.

7 45 Goodwood 7 furlongs 0-75 handicap.

An ordinary evening Goodwood 0-75 over 7 furlongs on decent ground.

Golden Wedding will be the choice of many but take heed of a couple of warning signs..

GW has beem at the top of her form for a long time and there are 2 signs her form is on the wane. GW waon a straight 7 at Newbury 2 outings ago but the time was relatively slow and the 3rd and 4th have been beaten into  6th and 5 th respectively since. The 5th, Danecase has won but in a slow time and reversed form with Golden Wedding who was second. Jan Steen was third and the form book says it was 5 lengths closer to GW than when they last met on July 7th.

Therefore we are looking at GW running about 4-5 lengths below.

Consulting could profit (the second best in the betting) but the race is set up for Baltic Prince to make all the running from the 4 box. Nothing around it has the early to lead it and the field is full of 'hold up' or 'tracked leader' descriptions in their form.

10/1 BALTIC PRINCE

SPEED FIGURES 7 45 Good.

Baltic Prince 54
Consulting 51
Clever Bob 46
Golden Wedding 39

V.

Little Miss Kodi is being gambled at Goodwood ( 7 45)and BP is on the drift. Last time it won B Prince was the subject of late money..
V.

Good run for our money there,sir!

Your results were desperate vitavox but thats racing for you.

Your reasoning behind bets was usually logical and well thought out but a few points i might throw at you.

First i might say you were playing in a lot of the rposts races rather than your own .

Might have made you throw up a bet you mightnt otherwise have,  maybe not.

But your angle was 90 % time and you played in mainly hcaps.

Your style of form study is to my thinking is all about finding improvers or dismissing hype horses.

So surely maidens, novice, group and maybe 3 yo handicaps should be your preferred route ?

All age handicaps are more about feel or Info as most roughly run to a time or position the trainer wants depending on his long or short term plan for it.

There are exceptions of course.

I know this didnt work out great for you but i,d like to see you forget RP and put up a few of your own for a month in races that would suit your style.

Thankyou gentlemen for your comments.

Desperado - I was derailed somewhat by the perceived need to engage with the Racing Post. But that was the name of the game and I had to honour that. I do like handicaps and have put a lot of effort into trying to work them out. It's all about value betting and by and large,I find more opportunities in handicaps than elsewhere . Having said that Group races also throw up opportunities because they are heavily televised - racing journalists and tv presenters hype their heros and distort the market. Thikriyaat was an example yesterday: R. Birch described the Stoute charge as 'highly progressive' yet its RPR had only gone up 2 lbs between its last 2 races and my speed figures were 71 and 65 showing regression. Moreover Forge, whom Thikriyaat beat half a length into second could only manage 6th in similar Group3 company next time out and the third, Light Up Our World was 12th in a Group 3 at Deauville n.t.o.So the form was suspect and it was up in class (which RB did concede). I laid it.

I dont agree with your claim that handicaps are 'all about feel or Info'. I think they are all about class, form and time. (There is not enough form to go on in maidens.) But its whatever works for the individual horseplayer. I know my results in this thread have been disappointing but I keep records of my bets and I know my methods can provide profits. (And I did show a profit of 12.5% in a similar test proofed to Lee Mottershead.)

There is a good deal of pressure in going public. I wanted to experience what that might be like in terms of affecting my judgement should I ever take up 'tipstering' as a job. As it is I have beaten the RP professionals in this project but at some cost to my reputation - a pyrrhic victory.

I am thinking of contributing further to the Forum as I have been pleasantly surprised at the generous reception I have enjoyed. But this thread is closed save for a final balance (to follow).

Vitavox

I have enjoyed the journey with you Vita.

Looking forward to further contributions

ps... from someone who realises he is never too old to learn!!

Final Results:
Vitavox 68 staked   57.75 returned. Loss 15%
RP      160 staked  136.05 returned Loss 15%

Honours even thanks to a rescue mission by P Kealy on the final 2 days. Fair play to him.