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D. Phil takes on Segal and Kealy.
D. Phil takes on Segal and Kealy.
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Do you attempt to factor wind into your speed figures, in a quantitative way? ie do you attempt to find out average wind speed and direction during a meeting, and apply it to races, taking into account the distances the horses have raced in what directions during a race?
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^ and around the railed-out re-aligned bends - that add many yards to the advertised race distances, in many instances.
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I dont factor in the wind because im comparing all the races with each other on the same day - and the wind is the same for all, except, perhaps the straight course times versus the round. I do look at straight versus round disparities and it should show up there.
I definitely factor in rail movements. Just to confirm that Betting Advice is taking the place of Paul Kealy and Tom Segal for accounting purposes, plus Pricewise whoever is sitting in. Thankyou for your interest. V. |
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Kealy is back in Saturday's Post, but Pricewise is Mel Cullinan.
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Thanks Ram - i guessed as much because he did the stint in the midweek which Tony Calvin (?)normally does and discussed the Shergar Cup and he is not going too waste all thgat home work is he..? Ha ha.
He will be going for Union Rose - a horse which I put up in my Mottershead challenge (see above) on its seasonal debut when Ladweb did me out of a lot of money on Betfair and points towards my total. SP was 20 I think so guess what it must have been on the Exchanges.. I think its got a good chance (rain would help). But I wont be going for it. Instead ive just popped a little bet on Normandie Barriere in the 4 45 at Hatdock, or, now, IN Haydock as its fashionable to say.. I have a concept called 'icing on the cake' : this is something that is a little twist, a little feature that means you have found a winner (providing normal criteria of form, time, and class are met). It might be a birthday, it might be a certain jockey is engaged, but its something usually, social or psychological. In this case its all about William Buick. He has fallen foul of the French stewards, as we all know, but everyone is falling over themselves to make it up to him by putting him up on winners. I give you Normandie barriere, rider William Buick - the last jockey to win on it. Its run even faster since in the hot Ladies Longines handicap at Ascot over 7 furlongs following a couple of blips. That was a 0-90 run only .4 of a second slower than the fastest race of the day (adjusted for class) won by Fair Eva. Its very rare for an amateur race to be comparable with the best race of the day so I know NB will run a big race. The opposition dont look up to much (barring Ustinov who doesnt need to improve that much from its seasonal debut to figure) and its 2 points Normandie Barriere to get the job done at 4/1 (Paddy Power). Vitavox (More to come in the a.m..) |
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As predicted Paul Kealy steps up to the ocky and also as predicted opts for Union Rose in the opener. He should sack his researcher (if he has one)though as he has failed to notice that the key to this fast horse (second to Hootenanny at RA)is that it was gelded in the close season which has given it consistency to go with its talent. Conceivable winner, down in class.
I am taking on Paul in the first at Haydock but im holding off as I think my horse will drift a point. It will beat Mont Ras (Paul's choice)imo. Mont Ras DOES love Haydock as Paul argues, but the reason is that this horse is a railer and those wins at haydock were achieved via daring runs up the rail and today it is drawn in the car park in 14. Newmarket is a good card for handicap specialists (me included) and I like the look of the 4 25. Emma of Channel 4 racing would describe this as 'competitive' and for once she would be right. One key line of form is the CD second of Dutch Law on the 17th of June - the second, third and fourth reconvene today (DL, Scottish Glen and Ifwecan) and I think the race concerns these three.. Hughie Morrison's gelding got a narrow verdict over Scottish Glen there with Ifwecan a short head back in third. Dutch Law is by Dutch Art, a noted soft ground sire and it was G/S that day. Scottish Glen, however, was not suited to the good to soft but has never been out of the first 4 on todays fast ground conditions in 2 seasons - his 6th last year and duck egg at Goodwood in May were on good or soft ground. Consequently under the prevailing G/F conditions the 10 year Old Scottish Glen, with a 2lb turnaround for a neck will reverse with Dutch Law. SG hasnt won this season but ran his best race against Librisa Breeze in a better race than this l.t.o (3rd in a 0-109) recording a useful (but not outstanding) SF of 62. Ifwecan betters that with a 67 l.t.o. but there is some doubt in my mind re that figure and it may be more realistic to view Ifwecan as a 51 - his previous figure. Moreover we know Scottish G. has a verdict against it and that 67 was achieved over a mile - Scottish Glen is a 7 furlong specialist and was a good second to Mister Win here at Newmarket last season. Scottish Glen isnt budging from 11/2 so I/m taking it. 1 point EW. He is the class horse, has a decent speed figure and has only gone up a lb since that Librisa Breeze third. I wouldnt worry about the fact that Squats appears to have let the form down n.t.o as that horse was returned to the track too soon (it runs best with a break of 4 weeks plus between races). A bonus for me is the prejudice in punters' minds re a horse's age. This adds a point to the price. Vitavox |
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Vitavox - am sceptical about your speed figures but am enjoying the writeups. Best of luck with your selections.
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2 00 Haydock. 1 mile left hand turning.
Pick Your Choice has been withdrawn forcing my hand as its shortened everything up. However, 12/1 is still available Treasury Notes with Stan James and this price is hereby taken, I'm drawn to this race because there are a number of horses who dont have the credentials to win it. Just look at the form figure of the 14 declared runners l.t.o : (top to bottom) 0, 9, 2, 5, 0, 2, 1 (Non runner), 4, 3, 5, 9, 8, 0, 9. That second was Spring Offensive who barely registered a soeed figure that day, and the 4th was Silvery Moon who was also well off the class par speed figure there. Two For Two, the third '2', looks more interesting . That second was over 7.5 furlongs at Chester - a course that resembles Haydock in that it is left hand turning track with a sharp bend into the straight. Initially I had this marked as a fast race and being left on a mark of 92 by the handicap is lenient. Closer examination has instilled some doubts, however. I referred in a previous post how its imperative to keep going back over figures awarded and to spot anomalies. I gave TFT a 67 at Chester, which meant Heir To The Throne had to be 61, and Fast Dancer 62. Yet though Ice Slice, the winner looked ok with the 68 (matching the previous 59 and 66) Two For Two had only recorded a 52, Heir To The Throne 40 and 39, and Fast Dancer a meagre 36. When you take into account Two For Two was beaten by Treasury Notes at Ayr (lefthand turning) in Raceform 3390 (behind Gabrial's Kaka)you begin to think TN can do that again (at a bigger price). You need to be on the inside here and Treasury Notes is in 4, near the rail and it came up the rail at Ayr in 3390 (finishing 5th)(Lat Hawill held). TN class cresentials centre around that 0-102 5th and now that Pick Your Choice who won a 0-95 is out the next best would be a couple of placed 0-95 (S Offensive, TFT) which we think we can beat anyway. SFs Treasury Notes 58, 65 Two For Two 64 (?) Grand Inquisitor 53 Archie 57, 55 Mont Ras is undoubtedly well handicapped, and wins here at Haydock but its ex O'meara who trains mine and O'Meara will want to beat it - and he knows it will have to be dropped out and come by his horse treasury Notes who will be ahead of it on the rail which the jockey will be instructed NOT to give up. Mont Ras is due traffic problems (as I may be, of course..!) Vitavox |
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Sprint handicaps? Love them!
Why, because they take a lot of work which most professional pundits are , to be frank, either not up to or dont have the time for. Lets face it when they get put in front of the cameras its mostly to discuss the superstar Group horses whose form is well known without all that hard work.. The Redcar 5 05 appeals to me as a betting medium straight away. Lets take a look.. O'meara is showing signs of a revival and Highland Acclaim has plummetted in the weights from 103 in last year's Wokingham to be able to run in this 0-85 and his was the name who caught my eye in this race. There are some buts, however: 1. He has to reverse form with Cosmic Chatter who beat him l.t.o; 2. Whozthe cat who was just behind Highlans A was a well beaten 10th n.t.o, letting the form down, and 3. that races was not particularly quick (they finished in a heap). Of the others Steelriver can only do it on the AW, the bottom four in the weights are all on the downgrade and Cymraeg Beauty is trying a new trip. That leaves Mass Rally (on a long losing run but 3rd where Whozthecat was 10th, giving it the beating of Cosmic and Highland)and who has traditionally required a bit of dig and the selection - Lexis Hero - who had an impossible draw in 12 at Chester but prior to that had returned excellent figures behind Powerallied and Blithe Spirit (winner aince). Handicapper is taking a risk in dropping Lexi a lb and a bonus is that Lexi is returning to his winning trip of 6 furlongs. 1 point 18/1 in two places (inc Bet365). SF Lexi 61 Mass Rally 60, 58 Cosmic 54 Highland A 52 |
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4.25 Newmarket
I think you're being too dismissive of some of the other runners. Tanzeel was not knocked about last time out over an inadequate 6 furlongs at York. I think he'll run a big race today. Also Miracle of Medinah has been knocking on the door for a long while now and looked as if he would play a part in the finish until the last furlong or so in the race won by Franklin D over a mile trip that seems to stretch his stamina. |
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Treasury Notes - great shout. Well done.
Well backed from 11/1 to 15/2 or thereabouts. |
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Thanks Cash. Needed that, as they say!
I think you are right to point up Tanzeel's chance. After all its won a 0-105, which is more than can be said for the others. Also on the Kimberella run its SF comes out at 64 which is 2 points more than my selection. The maternal grandsire was a fast ground miler (Piggot mount) so 7 furlongs should be well within its compass. uhm... |
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How about bolding your selection Vita. It will make it easier to follow your selections
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Well done Hayley! What a lovely present for the journalists and the sponsors.
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Wd with the winners
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Dibdob - im an amateur on here, sorry. I'll see if i can find out how to do it. Good idea...
V. |
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highlight the text you want to bold and click the B. Keep up the good work
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Top tip dibdob.
I am fairly sure that Graham Rodway declared Scottish 'an absolute cerainty' on the Racing Post cast. . Oh dear! He will be mercilessly dealt with by the vipers on there next time out..had to have a quiet giggle... Vi |
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Time for a tot up:
Fridays Betting Advice was P. Innocenzi: 1 pt EW Shining Romeo - unplaced 1 pt Annigoni L 1 pt King Oswald w 3/1 2 pts Tommy Taylor L total 6 pts return 4 pts Saturday PWise (Mel Cullinan) 2 pts Saigon City L 1 pt Darshini L 1 pt Plutocracy L 1 pt Glory Awaits L Saturday Kealy (Saturday Sizzlers) 2 pts Union Rose L 1 EW Saigon City place return 2.60 1 EW Mont Ras unplaced 1 EW Full Court Press unplaced Total 19 staked Return 6.60 B/F 32 " " 22.75 To Date 51 staked 29.35 returned Loss 21.65 (42%) Vitavox B/F 7 staked return 5.25 Plus this week: 1 Lydias Place L 1 Ladurelli L 1 Guishan L 2 pts Normandie Barriere w4/1 returns 10 pts 1 EW Scottish Glen unplaced 1 Treasury Notes @ 12/1 returns 13 pts 1 Lexi's Hero L Total 16 pts returns 28.25 pts profit 12.25 (76.5%) |
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Mel Cullinan (wearing the Pricewise hat) is going for Dutch Connection at Deauville.
No selection today from me. |
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Three good calls yesterday including two late charging winners (Treasury Notes and Normandie Barriere). I thought Lexi's Hero ran well for a long way at a big price in a race possibly not run to suit.
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Well done yesterday,keep t up.
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Controversial.
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Richard NBirch flies the flag for the Post today, Monday, and selects Tonto's Spirit (5 00Ayr), Wahaab, (5 50 W), Swashbuckle, (6 30 FL) and Absolute Zero (7 50W).
I cant comment on the Tonto as I dont do anything below 0-75 and I wouldnt put you off Wahaab as that has been going a string of fast times (unbeknownst to Birch who is not aware of time). (I would prefer it was Brighton for it though.) I did study the 6 30 at Ffos Las, though, as Nonios has come to my attention having done a decent time in its maiden. Nonios makes his handicap debut today. That performance puts Nonios in this race with a 50 against Swashbuckle's best which was a 54 in a 0-85 (today's class). However, that's not the whole story as there is some doubt Swashbuckle repeated the quality of the second to Stetchworth Park (the 54) when it next ran and beat Pure Fantasy over this CD. So Richard Birch's claim that Swashbuckle 'has improved with each run' is open to question as it ran the slowest time of the day here l't.o. Nor is the form as good as RB implies - Pure Fantasy was beaten 15 lengths when 5th of 7 the time before and the 'inform' third Icebuster, as RB calls it, was beaten a similar distance (8 lengths)the time before so that is not as impressive as it looked. Isharah is not out of it if is allowed to boss from the front either. I'd be more interested in Nonios if the breeding gave more encouragement it will stay the extra 2 furlongs. An intriguing contest but I am staying out. Absolute Zero is already past the post according to the betting and Richard's descriptions - 'significant progess', 'commanding win', 'fluent..dismissal', galloped with 'tremendous enthusiasm' blah, blah. Richard is all about handicap mark and its here again - ' he receives weight from all bar one of his rivals'. Actually its last two runs are, to my way of thinking, very weak. On form at Windsor it won a mere 0-75 (today its a 0-90)from Henry The Explorer who has since been beaten into third by 9 lengths. The time was 2 seconds per mile slow for a 0-75 class par. It was no quicker in a 0-85 at Ffos Las where it beat 3 out of form types in the slowest race of the day. It will have its work cut out 5 lbs higher. Rock Steady and Prendergast Hill are not much quicker it has to be said with figures in the 40s (0-60 class par time). So Ive had tickle on Landwade Lad trained by Fanshawe. Its the only one of the field to have proved its competitiveness in 0-90 class and went off 3rd favourite in a 0-102 handicap at Chester. Its times have been adequate on turf but good on the AW at kempton (60) where it had a decent animal Twitch 5 lengths behind in third. It has beaten Soluble who ran Dartmouth close in that good Sandown handicap last year. If 95% then Landwade might pick these up in the shadow of the post and show his class. As an AW performer the fast ground should suit. At 12/1 Landwade Lad is the bet. Vitavox |
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Ive been following the Monday Ayr meetings without getting too involved but one of Goldie's handicappers has caught my eye the last twice in similar company and on similar ground - Fray.
Joe Doyle takes over today and all this 5 year old has to do today to break a 2 year losing run is to get a run (from a nice draw on the inside). Taken the 5/1 (available in more than 1 place). Speed figures: Fray 50 Jay Kay (50) - non runner Tadaany 45 War Department 44 Lawyer 40,34, 38 Tanawar 31 I am concerned about the stable form (1 win from 24) but the is Ayr and the trainer is Jim Goldie and the horse is proven over the course, distance and ground - surely it will reproduce that 50, wont it? Vitavox |
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If 95% then Landwade might pick these up in the shadow of the post and show his class. As an AW performer the fast ground should suit. At 12/1 Landwade Lad is the bet.
Thank you!! |
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My pleasure Eborman.
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Job for you on RP,perhaps
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More than the tipstering, I am enjoying the write-ups. It is interesting to compare your reasoning with the Post's (and my own).
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Thanks fellas..
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Hi Vitavox.
If you angle is speed figures well that will end up costing you as there are alot of considerations and not least the quality of an event. adding up all will give one a better understanding about what is likely to happen but even then you have the well being on the day of the horse . Years of experience is required in this regard and is not programmable or stats based. Regardless of who you are betting against in ref to your opening post ultimately you are trying to predict the outcome . As the odds matter to achieve a profit those mentioned always are selecting higher priced ones because their strike rate is low. GL |
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GL - I have 3 'angles': time, class (quality of the event) and form. The wellbeing of the horse on the day is mostly hidden from a home-based punter, except via the racing channels and channel 4 racing. It is possible to limit the damage by concentrating on recent form, eliminating debutants, and horses with long absences.
If you restrict your betting to the track you may miss the value in early prices and/or the Exchanges - plus there's the cost and time involved. Vitavox Richard Birch in the plate for the Post today: Seamster 3 30 T Secret City 5 35 T Atalan 7 00 N |
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I would know their chances backwards and as for you opinion on how to judge a horses well being well as explained you have alot to learn as it takes experience and patience .
Something certainly not explained on the net. But gl to your fruitless endeavour . Truly wish you the best and if I can help I will. yours. |
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'Fruitless Endeavour' you say..to date I have staked 18 points and returned 41.25 points..must try harder..
Vitavox. |
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Specialisation:
Im an avid reader of books written on the subject of betting on horses and one tip I recall is to specialise. One way forward in this direction is to write down your bets and study where you do well and where you do badly. In my case I have found 'time' 'speed figures', whatever you want to call it, works less well over longer distances (probably due to uneven pace). So I restrict my betting to 1m 3F and below. Secondly, I prefer handicaps to maidens because, in general, there is more public form to go on. I get Raceform weekly and before it folded, Superform. I do bet on Group races and take into account all the ballyhoo generated by journalists in search of superstars and heros - this can lead to value in other horses. Im absolutely rubbish betting on favourites. So I avoid them where possible. So today I dont have much to say about Atalan in a 1m 6f 0-75,and Secret City in a 0-60 at Thirsk, though Seamster has a decent chance in the Thirsk 3 30. It actually has some very good speed figures but this hasnt entered Richard's calculations as he is all about weight and handicap mark, though here he nods a little in the direction of class: "Seamster drops into a Class 4..and when regular rider Cameron Noble's 7 lb claim is taken into consideration the gelding carries bottom weight of just 8 st. 8 lb." To be fair RB on page 8 describes how important the going is and he highlights Seamster's good draw in the Betting Advice column. I am not so sure about Seamster's class credentials though as it was only 3rd in a 0-70 before that good run in a 0-90. Adam's Ale has won a 0-80 recently and Lydias Place has place form in a 0-80 as well so they could be tough opponents here. My eyes will be glued to Tikthebox with an eye to the future at Hamilton over 6 furlongs a CD to which it is well suited. Why is David Brown bringing it out only 3 days after its last run and dropping it back to 5 furlongs? Vitavox |
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Vitavox - Agree with dibdob, you need to start highlighting your selections in bold text or the trolls will be on here irrespective of whether your selections win or lose!
Hold the left click on your mouse down to highlight your selection then use left click to select the B button just below the bottom left of the text box. |
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As stated you are not considering all the factors and you main angle which you have stated is speed figures .
Your analysis is well to be fair not up to standard and you are missing key points . Dont know if you can get that from books as experience is the proven way. gl |
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Hungerford Stakes Group 2 Newbury Saturday.
Advice is 7/2 NEMORALIA. I dont know what happened in France l.t.o.but NEMORALIA has the best form of the entries for the Hungerford. Her second to Qemah has been franked by the winner and Alice Springs who have both won Group 1s impressively since. Additionally, her third to Catch A Glimpse, a head behind Alice Springs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) reads well in the light of the subsequent 5 race unbeaten run of that filly culminating in a Grade 1 victory in Bloemfontein. Toormore and Adaay (winner of the Hungerford in 2015) rate the main dangers. Adaay has a win over Limato to its name in a Group 2 last year but has been found wanting at the very highest level (9th snd 10th in Group 1s) Speed Figures: Nemoralia 75 Adaay 78 heavy, 74 2015, 69, 70 current. Home Of The brave 68 Markaz 64, 62 Toormore 63, 61 Bretton Rock 79 (heavy) Cougar Mountain 54 Convey 51 V. |
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Ron Wood, batting for the Racing Post picks Very Dashing (3 50 Salis) and Olympic Duel (4 50 Salis).
I like the look of 2 handicaps at Beverley today. Firstly, the 3 30, where Mark Johnston's 3 y.o. Abareeq shares favouritism with Peterhouse, last years winner and winless so far this season. Abareeq was a Goodwood failure in a much stronger race than this and will benefit from the drop in class, but judging by its 4L second to Jacbequick over 7.5 furlongs here at Beverley in a 0-85 the time before, with Invermere and Relight My Fire close behind, it will have to have improved to win this. The time was ordinary and the 3rd and 4th have been beaten since. Its AW win was also slow. Taraz is in the grip of the handicapper having gone up 12 lbs for a win last year, Intiwin and Save The Bees are held and Purple Rock's form is a bit shakey with Pumaflor too close to it l.t.o. Ostensibly Age Of Elegance is well handicapped having been raised 2 lbs in future handicaps following an AW 0-84 second, but that was a dawdle , and the earlier 0-70 3rd, (again slow) is a better guide to its chance. This is a 0-85, however, and PETERHOUSE won it last year as a 3 year old has the best credentials in this field to win it again. 7/2 (taken) is fair. Jack (Vitavox) The other handicap to follow.. |
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Nemoralia is missing the Hungerford Stakes in favour of York next week
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