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Am I missing something here? Example
Many Clouds 11 to win, but 5.3 to place? Surely that price should be more like 3.0??? Or am I miss understanding the market?
Many Clouds 11 to win, but 5.3 to place? Surely that price should be more like 3.0??? Or am I miss understanding the market?
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Not often you get 40 runners for a place market so the place price reflects this.
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personally think the top 6 or 7 in betting their place price is too high at moment by about 1 full point.
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If the 40 runners affects the place market, why does the win market not reflect this?
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Also, why is Place market (4 places) trading consistently under 400%. Surely this is overbroke or am I missing something?
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Johnboy - Because of the reserves.
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?
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Is it too late for reserves to run? BF seems to have made them non-runners and applied a RF?
It had to be reserve related, I'm sure, but I don't know who's got the right idea about them and who hasn't! |
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389% for 4 places, i dont get this fred ?
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They've just taken the #6 out, but they've not put another one in....
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Which bit don't you get, IS?
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that the market is below 400% whatever the odds, considering their is a chance of less than 4 finishers.
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Ah, that's true.
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It was 378% just now. On this ground, the odds of there being less than 4 finishers from a field of 39 must be less than 1%?
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Sorry guys, being dumb here? On back side 4 Places below 400% @ mo 390% . 5 places 480% (surely these are overbroke?) should be 400%+ and 500%+ respectively. 6 places trading at 642% - I appreciate it's a weak market. Either I'm having a brain freeze (highly likely) or somethings not right.
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They are overbroke, but there's the chance that there are less than 4 finishers, in which case the layers only pay out on three (assuming that's how many finish). If you backed them in all those circumstances, you would lose.
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If you backed them all in those circumstances, you would lose.
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4=400%
5=500% 6=600% 1 place equals 100%, the 6 place market does look out of sync thou, maybe down to the chance of less finishers than the market. Not sure of the real reason....... |
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The 6 TBP market is just weak. There's an overround. A substantial one.
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bookies are desperate to grab all the place and e/w money (see three6five offer for example)
wonder why  |
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Thanks Latalomne and I.S. Less than 4 finishers - surely highly unlikely - has it ever happened before?
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Not in the era of current field sizes. Even Red Marauder's win on a bog saw 4 finish.
As I said above, I reckon it's less than 1% chance. |
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it would point to arbers but are their enough of them to move a market ?
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Apparently across all goings you would expect 62% of GN runners to fail to complete.
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1277.8% in the 10 place market.
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when red marauder won there were only TWO finishers plus two more that remounted after falling which is not allowed now
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Latalomne 09 Apr 16 09:06 Joined: 20 Jul 01 | Topic/replies: 10,312 | Blogger: Latalomne's blog
Johnboy - Because of the reserves. nothing to do with the reserves to do with people that don't understand probability |
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Fair point, adge, but it was still a bog.
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Back /Trade just dont lay @ those prices
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Hi adge, i assume (dangerous I know) that you are a bookie from your previous posts. Can you please explain why 4 Place market is trading 385 - 395% !!!. My understanding is we could back all horses and make a profit as long as 4 finish. e.g 388% book, we back £388 proportionately on each runner and get back £400. Help!! I mean why isn't the win book trading at 97% on the back side - never gonna happen. My head is scrambled and I smell a rat. If something's too good to be true it usually isn't. Appreciate anyone's input please. Why Place 4 is overbroke??
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380% now
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Why I.S. ?? - Bot gone mad or have I ??
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I dont know the answer John, im hoping some clever bugger will come along shortly.
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Come on adge, you're a clever b.... :-)
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The win isn't 97% because there will either be a winner or the market will be voided.
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Johnboy 09 Apr 16 10:42 Joined: 14 Nov 00 | Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: Johnboy's blog
Why I.S. ?? - Bot gone mad or have I ?? |
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I suppose with 5 and 6 places e/w on offer traders/arbers are happy to offer over the odds on 4 places with the hope that there team of selected finish 5th or 6th and they can scoop the a free place bet .
If youve never traded a wonderfull market to start with Many Clouds @ 5.5 a place is a gift from heaven for trading |
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looks like a few bots
reminds me of new approaches derby 5/1 a win 7/2 a place in the 15 mins before the off |
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If youve never traded a wonderfull market to start with
Many Clouds @ 5.5 a place is a gift from heaven for trading correct. the books will clean up this mess at 5pm (if not cleaned up b4) |
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I understand that Lat, it was tongue in cheek due to my frustration at not understanding the maths of the 4 Place market.
e.g 1.45 Aintree 20 runner Hcap - 4 Place market approx 406% on back side, as it should be, but not for Grand Nat. Why???????????. Help please, cos I want to steam in and back 'em all but lack the confidence!! Hidden Reduction Factors - Non Runners. I just don't know, never seen it before for such a sustained period. Answers guys. |