Grand National Place Market

Not often you get 40 runners for a place market so the place price reflects this.

personally think the top 6 or 7 in betting their place price is too high at moment by about 1 full point.

If the 40 runners affects the place market, why does the win market not reflect this?

Also, why is Place market (4 places) trading consistently under 400%. Surely this is overbroke or am I missing something?

Johnboy - Because of the reserves.

?

Is it too late for reserves to run?  BF seems to have made them non-runners and applied a RF? 

It had to be reserve related, I'm sure, but I don't know who's got the right idea about them and who hasn't!

389% for 4 places, i dont get this fred ?

They've just taken the #6 out, but they've not put another one in....

Which bit don't you get, IS?

that the market is below 400% whatever the odds, considering their is a chance of less than 4 finishers.

Ah, that's true.

It was 378% just now.  On this ground, the odds of there being less than 4 finishers from a field of 39 must be less than 1%?

Sorry guys, being dumb here? On back side 4 Places below 400% @ mo 390% . 5 places 480% (surely these are overbroke?) should be 400%+ and 500%+ respectively. 6 places trading at 642% - I appreciate it's a weak market. Either I'm having a brain freeze (highly likely) or somethings not right.

They are overbroke, but there's the chance that there are less than 4 finishers, in which case the layers only pay out on three (assuming that's how many finish).  If you backed them in all those circumstances, you would lose.

If you backed them all in those circumstances, you would lose.

4=400%
5=500%
6=600%

1 place equals 100%, the 6 place market does look out of sync thou, maybe down to the chance of less finishers than the market. Not sure of the real reason.......

The 6 TBP market is just weak.  There's an overround.  A substantial one.

bookies are desperate to grab all the place and e/w money (see three6five offer for example)

wonder why

Thanks Latalomne and I.S.  Less than 4 finishers - surely highly unlikely - has it ever happened before?

Not in the era of current field sizes.  Even Red Marauder's win on a bog saw 4 finish. 

As I said above, I reckon it's less than 1% chance.

it would point to arbers but are their enough of them to move a market ?

Apparently across all goings you would expect 62% of GN runners to fail to complete.

1277.8% in the 10 place market.

when red marauder won there were only TWO finishers plus two more that remounted after falling which is not allowed now

Latalomne 09 Apr 16 09:06 Joined: 20 Jul 01 | Topic/replies: 10,312 | Blogger: Latalomne's blog
Johnboy - Because of the reserves.

nothing to do with the reserves

to do with people that don't understand probability

Fair point, adge, but it was still a bog.

Back /Trade just dont lay @ those prices

Hi adge, i assume (dangerous I know) that you are a bookie from your previous posts. Can you please explain why 4 Place market is trading 385 - 395% !!!. My understanding is we could back all horses and make a profit as long as 4 finish. e.g 388% book, we back £388 proportionately on each runner and get back £400. Help!! I mean why isn't the win book trading at 97% on the back side - never gonna happen. My head is scrambled and I smell a rat. If something's too good to be true it usually isn't. Appreciate anyone's input please. Why Place 4 is overbroke??

380% now

Why I.S. ?? - Bot gone mad or have I ??

I dont know the answer John, im hoping some clever bugger will come along shortly.

Come on adge, you're a clever b.... :-)

The win isn't 97% because there will either be a winner or the market will be voided.

Johnboy 09 Apr 16 10:42 Joined: 14 Nov 00 | Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: Johnboy's blog
Why I.S. ?? - Bot gone mad or have I ??

I suppose with 5 and 6 places e/w on offer traders/arbers are happy to offer over the odds on 4 places with the hope that there team of selected finish 5th or 6th and they can scoop the a free place bet .
If youve never traded a wonderfull market to start with
Many Clouds @ 5.5 a place  is a gift from heaven for trading

looks like a few bots

reminds me of new approaches derby
5/1 a win 7/2 a place in the 15 mins before the off

If youve never traded a wonderfull market to start with
Many Clouds @ 5.5 a place  is a gift from heaven for trading

correct. the books will clean up this mess at 5pm (if not cleaned up b4)

I understand that Lat, it was tongue in cheek due to my frustration at not understanding the maths of the 4 Place market.
e.g 1.45 Aintree 20 runner Hcap - 4 Place market approx 406% on back side, as it should be, but not for Grand Nat. Why???????????. Help please, cos I want to steam in and back 'em all but lack the confidence!! Hidden Reduction Factors - Non Runners. I just don't know, never seen it before for such a sustained period. Answers guys.

Johnboy
Date Joined:    14 Nov 00
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09 Apr 16 11:01 Joined: 14 Nov 00 | Topic/replies: 13 | Blogger: Johnboy's blog
I understand that Lat, it was tongue in cheek due to my frustration at not understanding the maths of the 4 Place market.
e.g 1.45 Aintree 20 runner Hcap - 4 Place market approx 406% on back side, as it should be, but not for Grand Nat. Why???????????. Help please, cos I want to steam in and back 'em all but lack the confidence!! Hidden Reduction Factors - Non Runners. I just don't know, never seen it before for such a sustained period. Answers guys.

bots, arbers, morons

it IS a f@ck up. no chance of losing

you're all right [ well nearly all ] the place market is overbroke.
do the same as me and back 20 or so of them..don't lay.

my only sense of reason is that so many once a year punters don't understand or don't see that little figure of 380% or understand what it means

Thanks Charlton, perhaps that's the answer

many clouds to win at 11 or to place at 5.3, bizarre.

Thanks adge / Charlton - def not laying in this market (used to lay a book in previous years). A backer it is then. Good Luck.

youre not missing much imo   4-1 to place is a stunning price , sure to be thereabouts

The beauty is you dont even have to take the price Many Clouds apart just sit and wait a point above and the market comes to you

gradually moving back to expectation 397%  present

Some people must be in a lovely position if they have just traded on this market this morning.

I am

Finally come back to a "normal" market 402%