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Currently having my worst ever run - 20 consecutive losers.
Strategy has always been based on level stakes win singles as I've proven to myself at least over years that if your methods are sound that is the best way to optimise. But the bank is taking a hammering and I can stop a train right now. Do I carry on regardless with tried and tested methods, reduce stakes, or just take a holiday? Never been in this place before - how do others get throught it?
Strategy has always been based on level stakes win singles as I've proven to myself at least over years that if your methods are sound that is the best way to optimise. But the bank is taking a hammering and I can stop a train right now. Do I carry on regardless with tried and tested methods, reduce stakes, or just take a holiday? Never been in this place before - how do others get throught it?
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Replies: 47
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Good time to take a break pre-Cheltenham. Only downside to a break is possibly missing winners you would have backed but personally I wouldn't concern myself with that.
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double ya steaks, winner due
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I call on the lucky pin under such circumstances
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TBH what I realy want is the comfort of hearing that I'm not the only one this has happened to. The fear of being though of as a mug, if only to myself, really haunts me.
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Before anyone can make an assessment of your losing run they would need to know your average prices taken. To be honest, unless you are backing at quite short prices I would imagine that 20 losers is quite within the realms of possibility, it certainly is for me. This means that to take a break would be madness because I am sure you have heard of sods law. What you really should have done is work out, given your strategy, what your longest losing runs are likely to be to a certain confidence value, say 95% and then ensure that your bank is more than big enough to handle this. I hope that is what you have done. Don't get me wrong, we all get P***** off when the losing runs come. When it is over do what I do, put a big notice on your office wall stating
23 LOSERS on the trot (4/3/2016) its happened before it will happen again |
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you've come to the right place.
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Carry on if you know are doing the right things, I had a run of 23 losers on the bounce about 3 months ago and a 20 a couple of months before that, but due to the prices I play at it's not that unheard of for me.
If you get the prices the winners will take care of themselves longterm, a big part of the battle is in the mind, and when it starts to play tricks and is telling you that you are doing something wrong it is hard to carry on. Good luck |
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steerforth, these spells happen to EVERY punter on the planet..regardless of how good he or she may be at finding opportunities. Ask yourself how important this "bad period" is to your proven long-term success? Your bank and staking set-up should be able to withstand the inevitable bad bastard periods that will visit you. Understanding variance and remaining focused on the bigger picture is key. Reducing stakes is counterproductive. Chasing losses is moronic. Taking a break and coming back more refreshed is never a bad thing.
Never forget> A firm tree does not fear the storm. |
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lay wat u fancy
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"20 consecutive losers." - "based on level stakes win singles"
"But the bank is taking a hammering" ------------------- What percentage of your BANK are you staking? That looks more like your problem - if you cannot sustain 20 losers ... without going on tilt. |
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I repeat my earlier sentiment. DO NOT TAKE A BREAK. To do so would be completely illogical
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Onlooker, if he bets 2% a race then his bank will be down 30% (I guess), that's quite a hammering whilst not over staking.
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thanks for the useful input all.
A bit of detail. My previous longest run is 16 losers, (twice in last 6 years) so I know full well this is possible. prices average at around 4 to 1 I guess, but its all about my perception of whther that exceeds the chance. Profits have been at worst 8 and best 30% pa over that period, so I was happy enough i was getting it right. But there seems to be a longer term downard trend and thats what is worrying me most. I can't get out of my head that I can't get on with the firms I traditionally did best with leaving me battling the ones that seem to beat me. So th equestion is hang over me, "is my edge gone and if it is what can I do about it"? Yes the bank is suffering but it's still quite comfortable. I set stake to bank very coonservatively - but its the mind games that are affecting my confidence. I can see that in that losing run I've been at the margins of value - and probably unwittingly crossed the line into a couple of rank bad selections. It's feeding on itself. I think a break is needed. |
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the question is how on earth do you have any bookmakers that take your bets if you are winning between 8-30 % ?
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At an average price of 4-1, I make that a 1 in 100 chance (I think!) of having 20 straight losers. So I reckon you've done well never to suffer this length of barren run before.
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Yes I agree, about a 1% chance of 20 losers but that does not mean that it cant happen
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Im in exactly the same sort of run
I have experienced similar runs on the turf [flat] At the prices i bet i do expect them But this is the worst run i have had on the A/W since i started ,20 years plus ago Fingers crossed yours and mine will end soon If you have consistantly made a profit year on year ,you must stick with your normal staking plan  |
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That tells me I'm off track and making selection mistakes. Rider - I increased the level stake comparatively recently and started to get shut down. The three firms I have left are limiting on occasions but I'm obviously not winning off them long term. I know eactly where my success has been and those guys won't take a bet anymore at the higher stake. It seems its ok to play for buttons but once they feel it they're out. Early prices have been the edge and limited to just three who are generally not in the habit of making too many mistakes is where the edge has gone I suspect.
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Happens to us all OP.
I usually default to 1 bet per day after a long losing streak. ..and if that bet happens to win i'll push my luck a bit more with those winnings... |
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If you are successful with bookmakers then eventually you will have to move your betting on to here unless you have the resources to set up a Veitch type operation. This may then mean that your approach does not work so well especially if your edge has been to morning best prices with bookmakers. You may then have to rethink your approach and change your modus operandi. My betting is now very different to when I bet with bookmakers in the past.
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If you have been successful over years with your methods,it's very unlikely you are doing much wrong.If the bank really is suffering ,I
would tend to add about 20% to your price eg put in 5/1 instead of 4/1 ,doing this will decrease the amount of bets,while increasing the value on the ones you do have. |
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Olias - Yep - thats the conclusion I was trying to avoid, but I think you might be right. Thanks for your thoughts but really not sure how to make it work on here!
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steerforth 04 Mar 16 16:26
'.... I know exactly where my success has been and those guys won't take a bet anymore.....' 'Early prices have been the edge and limited to just three who are generally not in the habit of making too many mistakes' ------------------------ So, are you - or, rather it very much looks like - you are just 'doing a Pricewise thing' - and simply, 'playing the prices' In which case ... SOMEBODY ELSE is making 'your selections' for you. |
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Quite simply, you wont be able to make it work on here to the same extent unless you are betting to small amount eg less than £25 which is why you may have revise your approach
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steerforth
04 Mar 16 15:50 TBH what I realy want is the comfort of hearing that I'm not the only one this has happened to. The fear of being though of as a mug, if only to myself, really haunts me. Surely you don't need to be told that you're not the only punter that has experienced a long losing run  |
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No different than laying 3 winners on the bounce,just dont chase it happens to everyone.
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There are many strategies for coping with this- one of them is just coming on here - "a problem shared.. etc". I already feel a bit less inhibited and looking forward to getting on with some hard work tonight!! The most encouraging post? Blunder "If you have been successful over years with your methods,it's very unlikely you are doing much wrong". I know thats true - and I know enough about variances and stats - but none of that stops the demons from doing their thing, and thats what I'm fighting, - just by the simple act of posting.
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is it possible to put up the names of the 20 losers Steerforth , im interested.
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Never read Paul Merson's autobiography but been meaning to, one quote from it though is that "at times it's hard not to take it personally", we all know what he means with that one
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Console yourself with this fact, the losing runs impose more pain than the pleasure we get from winning runs and it is for this reason that losing runs stop everyone from being a winning punter which in turn is what enables winning punters to be winning punters for without losing punters we are all dead in the water. In conclusion losing runs are a beneficial part of your occupation, they by definition ensure that the club you are a member of is a small club
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steerforth i'll give you the best system known to man..
pick a horse you think will win in every race and LAY it. come back in 12mths and tell me how much you won. |
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Placepot - here you go - for what it's worth, last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan.
18/1/16 Wolves Mujazif 10/1 19/1/16 Ayr Infrontofthejudge 5/2 20/1/16 Fairyhouse Burgas 2/1 21/1/16 Southwell Greyfriarschorista 5/2 22/1/16 Market Rasen Vivas 9/1 23/1/16 Navan Fascino Rustico 6/1 24/1/16 Leopardstown Beau Mome 5/2 24/1/16 Chelmsford Haunted 6/1 27/1/16 Thurles Gran Cavallo 6/1 30/1/16 Fairyhouse Delegate 9/2 3/2/16 Down Royal Mount Gunnery 11/4 4/2/16 Clonmel D'Nailor 14/1 14/2/16 Exeter Easter Day 11/4 20/2/16 Fairyhouse Bas Des Iles 4/1 27/2/16 Newcastle Special Catch 4/1 28/2/16 Southwell Orchard Road 4/1 1/3/16 Catterick Flemerina 5/1 3/3/16 Taunton Romeo is Bleeding 9/1 3/3/16 Ludlow Pulling Power 11/4 4/3/16 Lingfield What a Party 7/1 |
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For anyone who might be interested (and no reason why you should) the run ended today. Modest stuff, but the head was in a better place thanks to this cathartic thread.
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steerforth 04 Mar 16 18:54
Placepot - here you go - for what it's worth, last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan. ==================== 18/1/16 Wolves Mujazif 10/1 .....Class 5 CLAIMER -previous runs ... LAST - 11th - 10th - LAST - 13th 19/1/16 Ayr Infrontofthejudge 5/2 .....Lowest rating range - Handicap Hurdle - previous runs ... Beaten - 32 lengths - 53 lengths 20/1/16 Fairyhouse Burgas 2/1 .....MAIDEN Hurdle - Irish debut 21/1/16 Southwell Greyfriarschorista 5/2 .....Class 6 SELLER Southwell Fibresand 22/1/16 Market Rasen Vivas 9/1 ..... Novice Hurdle 23/1/16 Navan Fascino Rustico 6/1 ..... Beginners Chase - and Chase DEBUT previous runs - on 2 of last 3 runs - Pulled Up and Fell - over Hurdles 24/1/16 Leopardstown Beau Mome 5/2 ..... Handicap Hurdle - Pulled Up 24/1/16 Chelmsford Haunted 6/1 ..... MAIDEN - Milton Bradley trained 3yo filly - making her DEBUT ... WHAT ! 27/1/16 Thurles Gran Cavallo 6/1 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle - DEBUT 30/1/16 Fairyhouse Delegate 9/2 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle 3/2/16 Down Royal Mount Gunnery 11/4 ..... Beginners Chase 4/2/16 Clonmel D'Nailor 14/1 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle 14/2/16 Exeter Easter Day 11/4 ..... CHASE - HEAVY ground (slow by 92.60s) - PULLED UP 20/2/16 Fairyhouse Bas Des Iles 4/1 .... Chase 27/2/16 Newcastle Special Catch 4/1 .... Chase 28/2/16 Southwell Orchard Road 4/1 ..... Lowest rating range SELLING Handicap Hurdle 1/3/16 Catterick Flemerina 5/1 ..... Handicap Hurdle 3/3/16 Taunton Romeo is Bleeding 9/1 ..... SELLING Hurdle 3/3/16 Ludlow Pulling Power 11/4 .... Handicap Hurdle - stepping up a mile in trip 4/3/16 Lingfield What a Party 7/1 ..... Class 5 CLAIMER steerforth - "last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan." ..... MAIDEN HURDLE - DEBUT over Hurdles - won by a Nose. ------------------ A fair few clues, there ... |
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you got it! bad races full of bad horses most of whom can't win - you find some nice value when you can discount most of the field. OK on a bad run, but it works for me - year after year after year. don't knock it till you've tried it mate. meanwhile I'll leave everyone to their ultra competitive, your turn next time, handicaps. A price is a price.
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Thanks for your response - and your refreshing honesty in starting this thread.
However - how can you determine what is, "VALUE" - in fields of mostly unexposed, and often untried, horses ... when it is practically impossible for ANYBODY - be they an odds compiler or punter - to put a 'proper price' on most of the contestants. |
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But that's exactly the point - most times I agree it's difficult, but not every time. The strategy is abount being AGAINST shortish horses, (not necessarily favs) that you form an opinion will not win, if it's difficult for bookies to form a market, I'll bet when I think I can. It's about setting prices for horses that could win. Obviously there has to be an angle in the argument. I really don't want to get bogged down in this, but as an example, let's say Haunted - when I backed her it was against a short priced favourite that was collecting place finishes as a hobby - I thought nothing else in the race had shown the level of form necessary to win even an ordinary maiden at Chester, but David Simcock was running a likely looking debutant (not Milton Bradley, who has her now). Simcock was red hot at the time and I thought she was worth chancing at 6/1, She missed the break and apparently isn't much good as she's been sold. But the favourite got beat and the race was won by a 50/1 no hoper, - you can never account for that and it happens sometimes in all grades. - but the fact remains that there are more bad favourites in bad races than in any other class, and I've been able to make that work. Otherwise I wouldn't keep doing it - I hate laying btw and would get no enjoyment from it - I'm not an idiot (honest)..
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[Chelmsford]
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