confidence in crisis

Good time to take a break pre-Cheltenham. Only downside to a break is possibly missing winners you would have backed but personally I wouldn't concern myself with that.

double ya steaks, winner due

I call on the lucky pin under such circumstances

TBH what I realy want is the comfort of hearing that I'm not the only one this has happened to. The fear of being though of as a mug, if only to myself, really haunts me.

Before anyone can make an assessment of your losing run they would need to know your average prices taken. To be honest, unless you are backing at quite short prices I would imagine that 20 losers is quite within the realms of possibility, it certainly is for me. This means that to take a break would be madness because I am sure you have heard of sods law. What you really should have done is work out, given your strategy, what your longest losing runs are likely to be to a certain confidence value, say 95% and then ensure that your bank is more than big enough to handle this. I hope that is what you have done. Don't get me wrong, we all get P***** off when the losing runs come. When it is over do what I do, put a big notice on your office wall stating

23 LOSERS on the trot (4/3/2016) its happened before it will happen again

you've come to the right place.

Carry on if you know are doing the right things, I had a run of 23 losers on the bounce about 3 months ago and a 20 a couple of months before that, but due to the prices I play at it's not that unheard of for me.

If you get the prices the winners will take care of themselves longterm, a big part of the battle is in the mind, and when it starts to play tricks and is telling you that you are doing something wrong it is hard to carry on.

Good luck

steerforth, these spells happen to EVERY punter on the planet..regardless of how good he or she may be at finding opportunities. Ask yourself how important this "bad period" is to your proven long-term success? Your bank and staking set-up should be able to withstand the inevitable bad bastard periods that will visit you. Understanding variance and remaining focused on the bigger picture is key. Reducing stakes is counterproductive. Chasing losses is moronic. Taking a break and coming back more refreshed is never a bad thing.   

Never forget> A firm tree does not fear the storm.

lay wat u fancy

"20 consecutive losers." - "based on level stakes win singles"

"But the bank is taking a hammering"
-------------------

What percentage of your BANK are you staking?

That looks more like your problem - if you cannot sustain 20 losers ... without going on tilt.

I repeat my earlier sentiment. DO NOT TAKE A BREAK. To do so would be completely illogical

Onlooker, if he bets 2% a race then his bank will be down 30% (I guess), that's quite a hammering whilst not over staking.

thanks for the useful input all.

A bit of detail. My previous longest run is 16 losers, (twice in last 6 years) so I know full well this is possible. prices average at around 4 to 1 I guess, but its all about my perception of whther that exceeds the chance. Profits have been at worst 8 and best 30% pa over that period, so I was happy enough i was getting it right. But there seems to be a  longer term downard trend and thats what is worrying me most. I can't get out of my head that I can't get on with the firms I traditionally did best with leaving me battling the ones that seem to beat me. So th equestion is hang over me, "is my edge gone and if it is what can I do about it"?
Yes the bank is suffering but it's still quite comfortable. I set stake to bank very coonservatively - but its the mind games that are affecting my confidence. I can see that in that losing run I've been at the margins of value - and probably unwittingly crossed the line into a couple of rank bad selections. It's feeding on itself. I think a break is needed.

the question is how on earth do you have any bookmakers that take your bets if you are winning between 8-30 %  ?

At an average price of 4-1, I make that a 1 in 100 chance (I think!) of having 20 straight losers. So I reckon you've done well never to suffer this length of barren run before.

Yes I agree, about a 1% chance of 20 losers but that does not mean that it cant happen

Im in exactly the same sort of run
I have experienced similar runs on the turf [flat]
At the prices i bet i do expect them
But this is the worst run i have had on the A/W since
i started ,20 years plus ago
Fingers crossed yours and mine will end soon
If you have consistantly made a profit year on year ,you must
stick with your normal staking plan

That tells me I'm off track and making selection mistakes. Rider - I increased the level stake comparatively recently and started to get shut down. The three firms I have left are limiting on occasions but I'm obviously not winning off them long term. I know eactly where my success has been and those guys won't take a bet anymore at the higher stake. It seems its ok to play for buttons but once they feel it they're out. Early prices have been the edge and limited to just three who are generally not in the habit of making too many mistakes is where the edge has gone I suspect.

Happens to us all OP.
I usually default to 1 bet per day after a long losing streak.
..and if that bet happens to win i'll push my luck a bit more with those winnings...

If you are successful with bookmakers then eventually you will have to move your betting on to here unless you have the resources to set up a Veitch type operation. This may then mean that your approach does not work so well especially if your edge has been to morning best prices with bookmakers. You may then have to rethink your approach and change your modus operandi. My betting is now very different to when I bet with bookmakers in the past.

If you have been successful over years with your methods,it's very unlikely you are doing much wrong.If the bank really is suffering ,I
would tend to add about 20% to your price eg put in 5/1 instead of 4/1 ,doing this will decrease the amount of bets,while increasing the value on the ones you do have.

Olias - Yep - thats the conclusion I was trying to avoid, but I think you might be right. Thanks for your thoughts but really not sure how to make it work on here!

steerforth 04 Mar 16 16:26 

'.... I know exactly where my success has been and those guys won't take a bet anymore.....'

'Early prices have been the edge and limited to just three who are generally not in the habit of making too many mistakes'
------------------------

So, are you  - or, rather it very much looks like - you are  just 'doing a Pricewise thing' - and simply, 'playing the prices'

In which case ... SOMEBODY ELSE is making 'your selections' for you.

Quite simply, you wont be able to make it work on here to the same extent unless you are betting to small amount eg less than £25 which is why you may have revise your approach

steerforth
     04 Mar 16 15:50   

TBH what I realy want is the comfort of hearing that I'm not the only one this has happened to. The fear of being though of as a mug, if only to myself, really haunts me.

Surely you don't need to be told that you're not the only punter that has experienced a long losing run

Mar 4, 2016 -- 4:18PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

At an average price of 4-1, I make that a 1 in 100 chance (I think!) of having 20 straight losers. So I reckon you've done well never to suffer this length of barren run before.

1% likely in a one-off 20 game play. The more we play the higher the likelihood increases of hitting such a streak. Given that steerforth has been playing for years - no doubt wagering thousands of bets over the course, a streak of 20 losses is no surprise at all.

No different than laying  3 winners on the bounce,just dont chase it happens to everyone.

There are many strategies for coping with this- one of them is just coming on here - "a problem shared.. etc". I already feel a bit less inhibited and looking forward to getting on with some hard work tonight!! The most encouraging post? Blunder "If you have been successful over years with your methods,it's very unlikely you are doing much wrong". I know thats true - and I know enough about variances and stats - but none of that stops the demons from doing their thing, and thats what I'm fighting, - just by the simple act of posting.

is it possible to put up the names of the 20 losers Steerforth , im interested.

Never read Paul Merson's autobiography but been meaning to, one quote from it though is that "at times it's hard not to take it personally", we all know what he means with that one

Console yourself with this fact, the losing runs impose more pain than the pleasure we get from winning runs and it is for this reason that losing runs stop everyone from being a winning punter which in turn is what enables winning punters to be winning punters for without losing punters we are all dead in the water. In conclusion losing runs are a beneficial part of your occupation, they by definition ensure that the club you are a member of is a small club

steerforth i'll give you the best system known to man..

pick a horse you think will win in every race and LAY it.

come back in 12mths and tell me how much you won.

Placepot - here you go - for what it's worth, last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan.

18/1/16    Wolves    Mujazif    10/1
19/1/16    Ayr    Infrontofthejudge    5/2
20/1/16    Fairyhouse    Burgas    2/1
21/1/16    Southwell    Greyfriarschorista    5/2
22/1/16    Market Rasen    Vivas    9/1
23/1/16    Navan    Fascino Rustico    6/1
24/1/16    Leopardstown    Beau Mome    5/2
24/1/16    Chelmsford    Haunted    6/1
27/1/16    Thurles    Gran Cavallo    6/1
30/1/16    Fairyhouse    Delegate    9/2
3/2/16    Down Royal    Mount Gunnery    11/4
4/2/16    Clonmel    D'Nailor    14/1
14/2/16    Exeter    Easter Day    11/4
20/2/16    Fairyhouse    Bas Des Iles    4/1
27/2/16    Newcastle    Special Catch    4/1
28/2/16    Southwell    Orchard Road    4/1
1/3/16    Catterick    Flemerina    5/1
3/3/16    Taunton    Romeo is Bleeding    9/1
3/3/16    Ludlow    Pulling Power    11/4
4/3/16    Lingfield    What a Party    7/1

For anyone who might be interested (and no reason why you should) the run ended today. Modest stuff, but the head was in  a better place thanks to this cathartic thread.

steerforth 04 Mar 16 18:54 

Placepot - here you go - for what it's worth, last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan.
====================

18/1/16    Wolves    Mujazif    10/1 .....Class 5 CLAIMER

-previous runs ... LAST - 11th - 10th - LAST - 13th

19/1/16    Ayr    Infrontofthejudge    5/2 .....Lowest rating range -  Handicap Hurdle

- previous runs ... Beaten - 32 lengths - 53 lengths

20/1/16    Fairyhouse    Burgas    2/1 .....MAIDEN Hurdle - Irish debut
21/1/16    Southwell    Greyfriarschorista    5/2 .....Class 6 SELLER  Southwell Fibresand

22/1/16    Market Rasen    Vivas    9/1 ..... Novice Hurdle
23/1/16    Navan    Fascino Rustico    6/1 ..... Beginners Chase - and Chase DEBUT

  previous runs - on 2 of last 3 runs - Pulled Up and Fell - over Hurdles

24/1/16    Leopardstown    Beau Mome    5/2 ..... Handicap Hurdle - Pulled Up
24/1/16    Chelmsford    Haunted    6/1 ..... MAIDEN

- Milton Bradley trained 3yo filly - making her DEBUT  ...  WHAT !

27/1/16    Thurles    Gran Cavallo    6/1 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle - DEBUT
30/1/16    Fairyhouse    Delegate    9/2 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle
3/2/16    Down Royal    Mount Gunnery    11/4 ..... Beginners Chase

4/2/16    Clonmel    D'Nailor    14/1 ..... MAIDEN Hurdle
14/2/16    Exeter    Easter Day    11/4 ..... CHASE - HEAVY ground (slow by 92.60s) - PULLED UP

20/2/16    Fairyhouse    Bas Des Iles    4/1 .... Chase
27/2/16    Newcastle    Special Catch    4/1 .... Chase
28/2/16    Southwell    Orchard Road    4/1 ..... Lowest rating range SELLING Handicap Hurdle
1/3/16    Catterick    Flemerina    5/1 ..... Handicap Hurdle
3/3/16    Taunton    Romeo is Bleeding    9/1 ..... SELLING Hurdle
3/3/16    Ludlow    Pulling Power    11/4 .... Handicap Hurdle - stepping up a mile in trip
4/3/16    Lingfield    What a Party    7/1 ..... Class 5 CLAIMER

steerforth - "last winner was Pride Of the Braid at leopardstown on 17th Jan."

..... MAIDEN HURDLE - DEBUT over Hurdles - won by  a Nose.
------------------

A fair few clues, there ...

you got it! bad races full of bad horses most of whom can't win - you find some nice value when you can discount most of the field. OK on a bad run, but it works for me - year after year after year. don't knock it till you've tried it mate. meanwhile I'll leave everyone to their ultra competitive, your turn next time, handicaps. A price is a price.

Thanks for your response - and your refreshing honesty in starting this thread.

However - how can you determine what is, "VALUE" - in fields of mostly unexposed, and often untried, horses ... when it is practically impossible for ANYBODY - be they an odds compiler or punter - to put a 'proper price' on most of the contestants.

But that's exactly the point - most times I agree it's difficult, but not every time. The strategy is abount being AGAINST shortish horses, (not necessarily favs) that you form an opinion will not win, if it's difficult for bookies to form a market, I'll bet when I think I can. It's about setting prices for horses that could win. Obviously there has to be an angle in the argument. I really don't want to get bogged down in this, but as an example, let's say Haunted - when I backed her it was against a short priced favourite that was collecting place finishes as a hobby - I thought nothing else in the race had shown the level of form necessary to win even an ordinary maiden at Chester, but David Simcock was running a likely looking debutant (not Milton Bradley, who has her now). Simcock was red hot at the time and I thought she was worth chancing at 6/1, She missed the break and apparently isn't much good as she's been sold. But the favourite got beat and the race was won by a 50/1 no hoper, - you can never account for that and it happens sometimes in all grades.  - but the fact remains that there are more bad favourites in bad races than in any other class, and I've been able to make that work. Otherwise I wouldn't keep doing it - I hate laying btw and would get no enjoyment from it - I'm not an idiot (honest)..

[Chelmsford]

on a tough run myself...i have to say it seems to happen a lot for me personally january through february year on year but at present have just lost confidence...the all weather is proving a tough hunting ground this year for obvious reasons and bottomless ground isn't helping

i agree with plenty on here that say hang in there but also agree with others who say have a break, really having a break doesn't suit me and just have to battle, at present though am just on a deep form search for cheltenham and am praying the ground will turn and we can get the edge and turn it around

do tend to agree with onlooker on your choice of races but it seems like you are singling out a horse you can get and playing accordingly but unless you know that simcock maiden horse is any good you are guessing so in this scenario maybe you would be best served getting it layed, that clearly isn't your thing though and your race choice is also a personal preference but these type of races i find are losing types for me because i just don't know enough about the horses running

Think you're right the game is too unpredictable on heavy ground ,horses tire and
fall if the race is run too quickly and horses held up can't make the ground up
on the front runners it's almost impossible to work out what's going to happen...

Good points Harry. But I find that if I know enough about a (good) horse, then so does everybody else, including the layers. My take is on that is exactly the opposite of Onlooker's - How on earth can anybody get an edge in those circumsatnces? I certainly can't. Haunted would come into the category of a bad decision but the formbook is full of clues as to what a particular horse might be capable of doing on the day, and when you're taking on bad horses, a price edge can result. When everything in the race has the very real potential to win and that potential is there for all to see, I find it really difficult to form an opinion about a price. Far better to look where others are less likely to, thats where the ricks are most prevalant.

Good thread - rare these days and, like Onlooker, I appreciate your openness.

I, too, have made a disappointing start to  the year - I only bet on flat racing (unless having a day at the races) and I am finding the all weather really difficult - I bet in 10f+ races and try to avoid Class 6 - many of these aw races (all classes) have no pace on and that can lead to unlikely results.

I do find your approach interesting - over the years it has been getting more difficult for me - much of this, in my opinion. is that everyone can now see all the form - can watch every race over and over so getting an edge is difficult - thus, an approach like yours is not to be sniffed at - looking at things from another angle is often the way forward.

I am pleased your losing run is over - I am, myself, taking a break and looking forward to Good Friday (flat racing on turf at Musselburgh!!) -  I will enjoy a non betting Cheltenham but will, nevertheless, enjoy the spectacle.

I wish you well.

onlooker
06 Mar 16 23:04

Thanks for your response - and your refreshing honesty in starting this thread.

However - how can you determine what is, "VALUE" - in fields of mostly unexposed, and often untried, horses ... when it is practically impossible for ANYBODY - be they an odds compiler or punter - to put a 'proper price' on most of the contestants.


Totally disagree with this...some bumpers, for example, you can roughly name the finishing order based on trainer and pedigree alone yet hopeful connections (presumably) seem to get involved at wholly unrealistic odds...same in novice hurdles, you dont need to be able to pinpoint the ability of a lot of these horse to know they've got no or little chance provided you believe those at the top of the market are solid (i speak more as a layer)

And the idea that you shouldnt touch Beginners Chases doesnt stack up at all to me..that Fascino Rustico, for example, had been crying out for fences all its career and i'm sure would have won had they started it at 2m rather than 2½m (7.7>1.33 when tiring & fell last)..certainly wasnt a bad bet imo

good thread this......enjoyed reading it

For the record, the losing run is nothing unusual. They can go on a staggering length of time, even when you have a truly cast-iron long-term winning method. They can break you, your will, your bank and life in general. By that point, of course, you're in no position ever to persist and discover that you did know what you were doing, after all.

It's a variation of Keynes' dictum that the markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

The big problem the full-timer faces is in distinguishing between a crucifying losing run and the possibility your method no longer works. And this, I think, is where your real problem lies.

If you're relying on bookmaker prices, and Betfair exchange prices are not good enough, then from the bookie's point of view you are indistinguishable from an arber. In fact, to all intents and purposes you ARE an arber - it's just that you're not giving away a chunk of your profit by laying the bets back on here, even though you could.

So you're facing the same problem every arber faces, of no longer being able to get on. It's just that it's taken longer for you to find that out on account of taking a year to have the same number of bets as an arber has in a day.

I wasn't going to do this but Di's post has tempted me - if only to demonstrate to onlooker what I'm on about. This is the diary write up made in te mornong for the bet on Fascino Rustico:

23rd January 3.40 Navan 20f beg ch s-h
Champagne James is a talented horse but absolutely the type I would want to take on at short prices. He started out over fences in November 2014 and nine runs and 14 months later he is yet to win one. He has run several sound races in defeat but continues to under achieve. He has not run to his best in two outings this season and although his TF rating of 138 is solid I have to find something to beat him at just 13/8. Arctic Skipper is the one the market favours of the rest at around 2/1, and a TF rating of 133 is better than his best hurdles form, but as I correctly predicted last time he didn’t progress from his promising debut,  and his trainer just doesn’t send out winners, three over fences in five years. I looked hard at Oscar’s Knight who ran much better on paper last time at 33/1 when looking like he might put it up to a Mullins short one on his third chase outing after two prior bad runs, before he ended his own chance with a blunder two out. If that were an indication of him progressing naturally for experience I might have been keener, but I think that race rather fell apart around him and he simply lasted a bit longer than others – particularly the white cap McManus runner who was much better fancied of the pair  but made a crucial error and struggled after. The winner won as he liked. OK’s TF rating was 128p, matching the best of his hurdles form, which itself I think leaves him a bit short of what is needed here. But the real clincher with this one is Tom Mullins the trainer, who is ice cold. Without a jumps winner since July he has sent out 64 failures in six months and his 5 year record is dire. Big stables dominate these races and Elliot could have the answer in FASCINO RUSTICO. He has been around the block a bit, obviously beset with problems for Paul Nichols before Dan Skelton did pretty well with him winning two hurdles last Spring, for a best TF figure of 139+ - better than anything here. He looked like he’d be placed when falling in the "Schweppes". A couple of more runs were less good and he moved to Ireland in the Summer. TF have long had him down as a chasing type on physique so this looks a natural plan and he might just have a bit of class. Although his record of staying on his feet in hurdles is not good, chasing is different if they are the right type to take to it. Elliot’s horses can need a run and if he does, the market will tell me soon enough. But he won fresh for Skelton after nine months off so that is encouraging. I grabbed a bit of 3/1 overnight because if he was right he’d bound to be the type the market would latch onto  but that hasn’t happened and worryingly *** now have him at 7/2  -  he’s holding up reasonably well elsewhere, but has the look of a drifter from where I’m sitting now. The time to tell will be shortly before the off, and the exchange column on ATR could be another grim few minutes of viewing. I’ve split the bet three ways.

Update midday – price has collapsed – I think I'm beat.

Result
The market decided he was a 6/1 chance long before the off, but I was encouraged that he didn’t drift further. In the race he tried to make all and was in control when he crumpled over the last – it was  tired fall but he would have held Arctic Skipper I think, as that one was just plodding on late. Pure agony!!