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on a tough run myself...i have to say it seems to happen a lot for me personally january through february year on year but at present have just lost confidence...the all weather is proving a tough hunting ground this year for obvious reasons and bottomless ground isn't helping
i agree with plenty on here that say hang in there but also agree with others who say have a break, really having a break doesn't suit me and just have to battle, at present though am just on a deep form search for cheltenham and am praying the ground will turn and we can get the edge and turn it around do tend to agree with onlooker on your choice of races but it seems like you are singling out a horse you can get and playing accordingly but unless you know that simcock maiden horse is any good you are guessing so in this scenario maybe you would be best served getting it layed, that clearly isn't your thing though and your race choice is also a personal preference but these type of races i find are losing types for me because i just don't know enough about the horses running |
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Think you're right the game is too unpredictable on heavy ground ,horses tire and
fall if the race is run too quickly and horses held up can't make the ground up on the front runners it's almost impossible to work out what's going to happen... |
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Good points Harry. But I find that if I know enough about a (good) horse, then so does everybody else, including the layers. My take is on that is exactly the opposite of Onlooker's - How on earth can anybody get an edge in those circumsatnces? I certainly can't. Haunted would come into the category of a bad decision but the formbook is full of clues as to what a particular horse might be capable of doing on the day, and when you're taking on bad horses, a price edge can result. When everything in the race has the very real potential to win and that potential is there for all to see, I find it really difficult to form an opinion about a price. Far better to look where others are less likely to, thats where the ricks are most prevalant.
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Good thread - rare these days and, like Onlooker, I appreciate your openness.
I, too, have made a disappointing start to the year - I only bet on flat racing (unless having a day at the races) and I am finding the all weather really difficult - I bet in 10f+ races and try to avoid Class 6 - many of these aw races (all classes) have no pace on and that can lead to unlikely results. I do find your approach interesting - over the years it has been getting more difficult for me - much of this, in my opinion. is that everyone can now see all the form - can watch every race over and over so getting an edge is difficult - thus, an approach like yours is not to be sniffed at - looking at things from another angle is often the way forward. I am pleased your losing run is over - I am, myself, taking a break and looking forward to Good Friday (flat racing on turf at Musselburgh!!) - I will enjoy a non betting Cheltenham but will, nevertheless, enjoy the spectacle. I wish you well. |
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onlooker
06 Mar 16 23:04 Thanks for your response - and your refreshing honesty in starting this thread. However - how can you determine what is, "VALUE" - in fields of mostly unexposed, and often untried, horses ... when it is practically impossible for ANYBODY - be they an odds compiler or punter - to put a 'proper price' on most of the contestants. Totally disagree with this...some bumpers, for example, you can roughly name the finishing order based on trainer and pedigree alone yet hopeful connections (presumably) seem to get involved at wholly unrealistic odds...same in novice hurdles, you dont need to be able to pinpoint the ability of a lot of these horse to know they've got no or little chance provided you believe those at the top of the market are solid (i speak more as a layer) And the idea that you shouldnt touch Beginners Chases doesnt stack up at all to me..that Fascino Rustico, for example, had been crying out for fences all its career and i'm sure would have won had they started it at 2m rather than 2½m (7.7>1.33 when tiring & fell last)..certainly wasnt a bad bet imo |
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good thread this......enjoyed reading it
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For the record, the losing run is nothing unusual. They can go on a staggering length of time, even when you have a truly cast-iron long-term winning method. They can break you, your will, your bank and life in general. By that point, of course, you're in no position ever to persist and discover that you did know what you were doing, after all.
It's a variation of Keynes' dictum that the markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The big problem the full-timer faces is in distinguishing between a crucifying losing run and the possibility your method no longer works. And this, I think, is where your real problem lies. If you're relying on bookmaker prices, and Betfair exchange prices are not good enough, then from the bookie's point of view you are indistinguishable from an arber. In fact, to all intents and purposes you ARE an arber - it's just that you're not giving away a chunk of your profit by laying the bets back on here, even though you could. So you're facing the same problem every arber faces, of no longer being able to get on. It's just that it's taken longer for you to find that out on account of taking a year to have the same number of bets as an arber has in a day. |
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I wasn't going to do this but Di's post has tempted me - if only to demonstrate to onlooker what I'm on about. This is the diary write up made in te mornong for the bet on Fascino Rustico:
23rd January 3.40 Navan 20f beg ch s-h Champagne James is a talented horse but absolutely the type I would want to take on at short prices. He started out over fences in November 2014 and nine runs and 14 months later he is yet to win one. He has run several sound races in defeat but continues to under achieve. He has not run to his best in two outings this season and although his TF rating of 138 is solid I have to find something to beat him at just 13/8. Arctic Skipper is the one the market favours of the rest at around 2/1, and a TF rating of 133 is better than his best hurdles form, but as I correctly predicted last time he didn’t progress from his promising debut, and his trainer just doesn’t send out winners, three over fences in five years. I looked hard at Oscar’s Knight who ran much better on paper last time at 33/1 when looking like he might put it up to a Mullins short one on his third chase outing after two prior bad runs, before he ended his own chance with a blunder two out. If that were an indication of him progressing naturally for experience I might have been keener, but I think that race rather fell apart around him and he simply lasted a bit longer than others – particularly the white cap McManus runner who was much better fancied of the pair but made a crucial error and struggled after. The winner won as he liked. OK’s TF rating was 128p, matching the best of his hurdles form, which itself I think leaves him a bit short of what is needed here. But the real clincher with this one is Tom Mullins the trainer, who is ice cold. Without a jumps winner since July he has sent out 64 failures in six months and his 5 year record is dire. Big stables dominate these races and Elliot could have the answer in FASCINO RUSTICO. He has been around the block a bit, obviously beset with problems for Paul Nichols before Dan Skelton did pretty well with him winning two hurdles last Spring, for a best TF figure of 139+ - better than anything here. He looked like he’d be placed when falling in the "Schweppes". A couple of more runs were less good and he moved to Ireland in the Summer. TF have long had him down as a chasing type on physique so this looks a natural plan and he might just have a bit of class. Although his record of staying on his feet in hurdles is not good, chasing is different if they are the right type to take to it. Elliot’s horses can need a run and if he does, the market will tell me soon enough. But he won fresh for Skelton after nine months off so that is encouraging. I grabbed a bit of 3/1 overnight because if he was right he’d bound to be the type the market would latch onto but that hasn’t happened and worryingly *** now have him at 7/2 - he’s holding up reasonably well elsewhere, but has the look of a drifter from where I’m sitting now. The time to tell will be shortly before the off, and the exchange column on ATR could be another grim few minutes of viewing. I’ve split the bet three ways. Update midday – price has collapsed – I think I'm beat. Result The market decided he was a 6/1 chance long before the off, but I was encouraged that he didn’t drift further. In the race he tried to make all and was in control when he crumpled over the last – it was tired fall but he would have held Arctic Skipper I think, as that one was just plodding on late. Pure agony!! |