4:25-Chelmsford Irish Eclare is a certainty

worst day ever.

Sod's Law, works every time.

ever?

yes. ever. so far today
Total races 29
Favs 17/29, SR 58.62%,
Ave SP 3.12 (100/3.12 = 32.05%)

possibly Chelms may settle down a bit tonight, but Im not too hopeful.

if your backing favs you would be laffin. if your me youre not.

but I wouldnt be backin for the next day or so, cos the bookies and me want it back.

Thank Gawd it always returns to normal eventually. In this case I reckon it will take at least a week.

If you were laying using the Betfair fav, it was even worse!

Jufn needs to lose for me today....

one man's meat is another one's poison and all that...

if you laid all the BF favs today your bank is bust.

Jufn is evens. A toss of the coin...

Jufn a half brother to a first time out AW winner although more stoutly bred, dam related to some turf stakes winners in america

I think the price is more the percieved weakness of the race rather than supreme confidence

canford is a nice back to lay here - gonna lay at 5 ir for a nice profit
backed at 7.8

thats not good news for me then.  But stranger things have happened.

canford is a place lay to end all place lays

rather place lay canford than lay the fav

lex - you cant just lay ALL favs at bsp - its the most obvious plan ever .

explain please ?

Its not so much the 50+% fav winners; its the high price they went off at.
V.v. unusual...

bloody hell 5.4 now -- not off yet

no I lay at well below ISP - industry sp. in running or trade or whatever. just need to get at least below 15% ISP. today was not a good day. But after many years doing it, I suppose I was due a hit. Luckily I restart my banks when the target is reached. but just recently its be a right old bugger..

here we go...

like i say strange things happen - Jufn fluffed the start...

it wins despite doing eveything wrong.

Just sums up an awful day

yes I traded a bit. but bloody hell..

what price did that go?

a nice 26 nicker profit >>

how you manage to lay them all lower than isp?

jufn £45 @110

I lay in play or by trading / dutching / lay another one etc etc

some of that was mine.  but well hammered today.

Time for a stiff drink I reckon.

so if a fav is 2/1 isp you just put an ir lay in at lower than 3 and hope for the best ?

Lex you say its your worst day ever. Bart Simpson once said that and Homer told him it was the worst day so far. Having a few sh1t days myself recently. Was having a big percentage of 2nds now there coming 3rd.

drawdowns are all part of the game - learn to handle them - keep with the strategy - understand that strategies are cyclical and you are well  on your way ....

starting with a grand bank this is the state of play so far this evening

365 races, 130 favs, = 35.62%,    Ave ISP 2.88 @ 34.72%

01-11-2015, 50%, £779.77   ---22%   !!!!!!!!!!!!
02-11-2015, 21.05%, £972.94  +24.8%**********  5 favs!
03-11-2015, 40%, £909.5   ---6.5%**********  5 favs!
04-11-2015, 36.84%, £858.79   ---5.6%
05-11-2015, 42.42%, £745.5   ---13.2%
06-11-2015, 36.36%, £751.73  +0.8%
07-11-2015, 16.28%, £1432.63  +90.6%
08-11-2015, 32.14%, £1782.71  +24.4%
09-11-2015, 30%, £1766.32   ---0.9%
10-11-2015, 22.22%, £2472.56  +40%
11-11-2015, 41.67%, £2023.25   ---18.2%
12-11-2015, 56.67%, £728.29   ---64%   !!!!!!!!!!!!

the highs and lows of racing.

and my worst day. ever.

laying favs

but with a twist roids. As Arniw says - oil me back.

what the heck does that mean ?

if laying favs was profitable the world would be doing it.

it is profitable if you do it below ISP. Been saying it for a long time on here and youve been reading it too. Today was a bad day at the office.

The world trys to do it, but you need the stats, the management and the methodology. Doing it blind you would be bust today. I'm just nursing a bit of a hit.

where do you place your bets on betfair?

on me laptop

nb..keep up with the wild guessing.

and Kelvin Hall ( and speaking of Arnie - the name of the bloke who played the Predator) will feckin lose.

you will know doubt get 1 right before long you sill leek hunt

its not guessin, its brainy workin. and much safer than laying 1000's and backin 1.01's matey. How's the plastering job going? Most work you right arms seen in a long time I reckon.

ah.. how I will miss the interlectual banter...

yay... just another 38 winners to go...

How do you decide which other ones to lay in the races lex ? You say you try and get the favs done below BFSP but sometimes will lay another one in the race?

I don't know how the hell you get matched on enough

you've done very well to make this last.

I'm amazed that there are not 'too many' others trying to do exactly the same thing (ie nick some in play off the %BFSP favs)

liquidity in play is shoite now too

GL to you if you can make it pay,

Does seem quite an effort to lose £50 in 12 days though

when you see the fav is going to come home then lay one that obv isnt. or dutch it with one outside of the bookies mark up. there's many ways as I ve told you before. Also when you miss a match staking and managment is key. Most try to stake to recoveer the loss. You dont, only the spread.

when you see the fav is going to come home then lay one that obv isn't

what odds are you laying the one that 'obviously isn't going to win'

it has been a bit of a drag to be honest for the past few weeks. But look at the figures.. sure Ive lost a bit - but  Ive also turned a 240% profit in 10 days. The trick is keeping it! Can usually double a bank within a month though.

liquidity is a prob is youre betting like Roida in ££KKK's. If your happy making a 100's and a bit of fun (not like today mind) then its fine.
You can make 10% of your bank most days.

what odds are you laying the one that 'obviously isn't going to win'

just enough to lower the liability. You can see whats happening just by watching the odds flick around. if your liability is say 100 you only need to lower it by a tenner or to make the spread required. Its easier than it sounds.

I'll be laying Khaleesy at 1.75 in a minute.

please don't say told you so if it gets done we all know eventually a few favs will get beat

I would trial this 15% on a thread but you do other stuff so it cannot be tested

you double your money in a month ?

come on lex - 5% per month , compounded is worth 80% on bank in a year , which is absolutely brilliant .
And you double it in a month ????

I dont need to. the fact that I'm laying below ISP ( or reducing to the same effect the liability) is all that's required.

It drifting so may ease the bet a little..

I dont think I can test it to be honest as its a method rather than a ridgid system. and posting would be seen as aftertiming really.
Thats why I tend to post just prior to the off when I think the numbers are pointing to a fav losing.
Maybe a video of a days work would do it.

1.75 IR is a big % lEX

Yes. double ya munny.

striding legs. thats why I'm easing the bet a little..

anuvver bleedin fav. un believable. you goto laff..

I cannot follow your rules mate

so I wish you luck

and yes we are due a spell of favs losing soon

Lex - please explain sir , youve lost me .

say the next fav opens up at 3.05 , what do you do ?

ta.

and Ive had enough of this beating to I will return tomorrow.

btw - do you keep records of the results? if you feel inclined plot the strike rate in a graph over 28 days. then take a random 28 day period and then another.


Zealot. You lay it with a liability at approx 15% of industry starting price. 3.05 ISP = 2/1 = 2.7 which is only a few ticks. The average fav is 2.75 and most under 3.5 will shorten by 15%. if they dont, then stake to get back the spread not the whole loss. But never lay a fav much bigger than ISP. it will bite you.

lex I've looked at tens of thousands of observations of favs over the past decade

I know there is no pattern to them

but obviously if you keep saying the next one should lose it will eventually

actually thats not what I say at all. and youre not making the right observations. look at the peaks and troughs and the frequency of the cycles. You will see a pattern. Even today will be in the pattern which will emerge of the next few days when the strike rate settlesdown to the mean once more. My guess is about 10 days.

You can plot the ISP of the favs as well, you will get a similar picture.

so if you can predict these cycles why don't you only play when they are in your favour LEX ?

Mean reversion? yes I do some of that and the longer the cycle sample the more accurate it is, but the less you bet. A cycle  of 20 works quite well.
On balance I go for high turn over. Plus I love betting.

anyways, g'nite. makes sure the bed bugs dont get ya.

the logic of your laying at below SP is of course extremely sound, if achieved consistently enough this MUST yield profits.

the cyclical and predictive elements of the distribution of favs is complete guff

if 47 favs win in the next 100 races it doesn't mean this bias will be reset within the next 100 races

no. it will be a bit longer than that, probably closer to 300

nite

good night

the few times I've been in a casino you'll see a character noting down the numbers coming up on the roulette wheel.  On the basis that there must be a pattern. They don't look very happy.

Dont get me started on casinos.... horses aint nuffin like casinos (fixed odds) you cant win with fixed odds, you just get lucky.
Bookmaker events are a completely, and literally, different animal.

lex thinks that the bookmakers can determine 'false' favs to reset the pattern

this is the biggest thing I have disagreed with

geez.... lex......

saturday was a cracker....though

Sorry for the flippant comment earlier lex,you clearly go into it deeper than moi. May I suggest limiting this approach to days when form is likely to go out of the window,I always find my speed ratings let me down on soft ground or tracks like lingfield with false pace races. That could be an additive to your laying favs approach,gdluck

stridingedge    12 Nov 15 18:09 
when you see the fav is going to come home then lay one that obv isn't

what odds are you laying the one that 'obviously isn't going to win'

pmsl..lex you're a proper dc.

You shouldnt judge others by your own standards Roids. Glad it gave you some hilarity though. You need it.