Fair comments Patterson.....and I agree, following any trainer blindly is the quickest way into the poorhouse. However, I think most would agree by whats happened this week at Galway that Welds horses have possibly under performed to some extent, it would probably be quite foolish at this stage to argue otherwise given the results on balance thus far. However, tomorrows another day.......and if I have learnt anything about racing in my lifetime, its to expect the unexpected.

and Mr Weld has 4 good looking prospects again tomorrow with 2 likely go off odds on, what price the Acca to close the Festival. I reckon that would put a smile back on his face.

Am just going by the RP stats pa, and the fact that I made some nice twinkle following him from the start of the flat year and onward - too true what you say though, and the place stats being distorted by low field numbers...all in all, I still reckon he's having a fabulous year

Spoke to a stable hand Thursday, Weld has had the vet in and out of rosewell day and night for two weeks , the vast expectation has exposed a previously unknown vulnerability imvho.

Can you ever trust a man who dyes his hair ?

2 up 2 to go, Bolger in the next and Hanlon's in the last

What an absolute pile of gunk talk ITT from OP.

Welds horses are not quite in the blistering form they were in earlier in the season, but they are hardly running terribly. As already pointed out, they were forward early, many were maiden winners who then must race in the real World, and many others were handicappers who went up in the weights and obviously can't keep winning forever. He still has an overall highly impressive seasonal strike rate of 21%, with only AP (23%) having a higher % of winners (not counting Mullins 40% as a sample size of 20 runners is too small for the purpose of comparison of this sort.)

Take a closer look at his 26 Galway runners for the 1st 5 days of the festival, up to and including Friday 31st.

26 runners
3 winners : 12% strike rate: below seasonal average of 21%
15 placed : 60% strike rate: in line with seasonal figures for 2015
8 2nds    : 33% strike rate: well above seasonal average of 20%

There were also a few others unplaced who actually ran well in big fields when taking their odds into account e.g. Tandem, Grecian Tiger, Sierra Sun, and of course a few outsiders & old timers who can be forgiven for down the field runs e.g. the likes of Hisaabaat & Northern Rocked. Sure, some shorties disappointed, but that will always happen and being Weld horses @ Galway, none of those shorties were anything near their true odds anyway. Overall, it's clear from the above figures that his placed ratio is on cue with already impressive seasonal stats, with the only blot being ratio of winners to 2nds. His seasonal ratio of winners to 2nds is approx 50:50, but @ Galway has been more like 66:33 in favor of 2nds. If he had maintained seasonal rates, then he would have actually matched his seasonal win strike rate of 20%+. If you take out the few shorties that ran poorly, his horses actually ran well on the whole. They might not be booming it like earlier in the year, but these are just normal peaks & troughs of a long season in which a yard will have close to 400 runners. To suggest firstly that foul play is likely a factor, and secondly that even if no foul play, that the yard clearly has a virus or some other medical problem, is just totally ill informed. You can't just dwell on the specific pieces of info of a few short priced horses running poorly and deduct something is terribly wrong.

Also, if you look closer at those short ones that were beaten:
Good Tradition  SP 9/10   : beaten into 2nd by a 7/4 shot from Martins yard that was 11 pounds well in with it.
Palmetto Dunes  SP 10/11  : beaten into 2nd by one of Lynams with an entry at York. Hardly a shock.
New Agenda      SP 4/7    : a totally overrated colt by New Approach who ran exactly like the did 1st time out. He is a pig.
Valak           SP 1/1    : ran poorly for sure. 1st time visor excuse?
Stay De Night   SP 4/1    : ran poorly.
Zafayan         SP 11/8   : underpriced 2nd to what turned out to be a Mullins good thing. 

The likes of Tidaany & Simannka were other beaten short priced fav that ran fine in 2nd.

Welds horses are running fine.

I'm a huge fan of Weld, can't deny that. I backed Forgotten Rules for the Ascot Gold Cup from 10/1 down to 4/1 ante post and honestly thought he was something special. Got to the point I was certain he wouldn't run due to the quick ground and I accepted that. Weld had said all along the horse needs cut in the ground and would never be risked on quick ground. Obviously I didn't get the result I wanted on the day but was relieved to get at least a run for my money, a good run at that considering the circumstances. But here I am weeks later still absolutely baffled why he then sent the horse out to run again on quick ground a week after the Gold Cup at the Curragh. I'll never quite get my head round that decision. I can only hope the horse gets his ground for the Long Distance Cup in October at Ascot and comes back better than ever!

Lets look at Welds 4 runners on day 6:

1 winner.
1 2nd    : 2nd of 13 beaten by the fav trained by AP : hardly a shock.
2 3rd's  : one of them was a 2 year old beaten half a length by one of AP's & one of Wachman's: pretty standard.

The yard has obviously had a dose of 2nd's at the meeting. All punters, jockeys, trainers go through a does of the 2nds. No one is exempt from this.

From 30 runners over the 1st 6 days, over 40% finished in the 1st 2. Not too shabby at all. In fact, find me a yard with more than a handful of runners and who had a higher % of runners in the 1st 2 at this years meeting. To achieve 40% from 30 runners is obviously very good.

@ onlooker: I have already gone through some of the 2nds. I will go through all 9 of them for you for further clarification:

Zafayan: 2nd @ 11/8 beaten by a Mullins good thing that was a shorter price @ 5/4. Totally standard.
Tidaany: 2nd @ 13/8 in a 14 runner handicap. Totally standard. Happens every day.
Simannka: 2nd @ 13/8 in a 10 runner Maiden, beaten by a very nice filly whose only previous run was in fact superior form to what the Weld filly had achieved.
Stucoodor: 2nd @ 13/8 beaten by a shorter priced Mullins horse. Totally standard.
Tested: 2nd of 10 @ 2/1 beaten a hd in a tough Listed race by one of Mullins @ 5/1. Hardly crazy stuff.
Palmetto Dunes: 2nd @ 10/11 going down fighting to a nice one of Lynams with the pair clear and Welds colt stepping up considerably on it's only previous run.
Pictogram: 2nd of 10 @ 5/2 beaten by a 4/1 shot trained by Wachman. Standard stuff.
Good Tradition: 2nd @ 9/10 beaten by a 7/4 shot of Tony Martins that it was 11 pounds wrong with. Totally standard.
Zafayan: 2nd of 13 @ 6/5 beaten by the 1/1 shot trained by AP. Totally standard.

This is not "positive projection." This is reality. Basic ebbs and flows of a season. Basic statistics. 30 runners is a small sample. 9 2nds and 4 winners out of 30 is pretty good, irrespective of price. 7 of the 9 2nds were odds against and 33% of them weren't even favs. Even a true 1/1 shot can and will lose up to 10 times in a row. The 9 2nds he had were at an average price of approx 6/4. It's totally standard to have 9 2nds and 4 winners when the average price is approx 6/4. Totally standard stats just slightly off centre over a miniture sample. This happens all the time over the course of a season!