what, iyo, is the single best criterion ....

real money

that was a given ackshully

It might help if I gave an example

e.g.
Best in 3 runs = 1st
Sire win % in 1 year = 10-20%

Systems lack free thought and judgment, where is the fun?

in compiling said system and then following it

What jockey's wearing the prettiest colours?
or more pertinently on here
which one can I aftertime on this forum and say I laid off for a healthy profit?

If there was a system in the world that actually worked everyone would be doing it

If we get this right, it may be possible to encapsulate your racing knowledge saddo in the form of an automated procedure

I back horses that are better than their recent runs suggest, can't see how a system can do owt with them, staking system possibly.

'that are better than their recent runs suggest'

now we're getting somewhere

how do you make that decision?

Systems are fine if that is your thing and you can maintain discipline, but they can never take on board gut instinct, which is a factor most people rely on

Video form

Yes, what this is I suppose, is an attempt to procedurise gut instinct

good answer breedingmad but it doesn't go far enough

what are you studying the video for?

Won last time out and Course winner

wd Facts

the first clear and concise won

Swift Tuttle, I honestly cannot tell you. I made my brother watch the debut run of Mahdrino this morning to explain why he might have a bet on it today. He just couldn't see the same thing I did.

its a gift saddo


ya cant teach it  ...

Whole point of a system is surely to refine it to your own individual thoughts/rules, no two people would set the exact same parameters so what is the point of canvassing others views on what is required, it needs to be tailored uniquely to your own thoughts, not a combined effort, and only you know what dictates how you make your selections.

make sure the barn is in form and the jockey is flying

I had two in the race, delta. Stormy Atlantic was the other, crazy price so left it.

interesting

I accept that it may not be possible
but when you think about it, it's difficult to say exactly why it is not possible

its impossible for somewon with an accountants mind set s-t

hth

what about a data analyst?

less so ...

First and foremost is PRICE.

swift

You are looking for a bias but you need enough evidence to suggest statistically that this is not a random blip from the norm.

A lot of people back fit a system with a few variables from a number of trainers and generate a decent looking sample size from cumulating many small samples, in effect all they have done is added together  a lot of probable random blips that will over time revert to the norm.

Trainers undoubtedly do follow set behaviours but i'd stick to them as individuals and you still need to have a view on any individual horse too.

roida has given the best answer so far -

-  closely followed by Deltâ's 3 posts.

Deltâ    10 Jul 15 15:14 
its impossible for somewon with an accountants mind set s-t

hth




My brother is a mathematician.

case rested!