Dodging Bullets - 1.45 Aintree

for this race i am going to put up a lay of dodging bullets. this one began the season with what appeared to be a much improved effort on what he had shown previously, when beating hi note by eight lengths at cheltenham. as hi note went into that race with a rating of 136, it looked fairly useful form at the time, considering dodging bullets was giving away seven pounds. however, hi note has hardly set the world alight in two hurdle races since that defeat. in fact he was tailed off on his next start behind fox appeal at kempton, who is a horse rated 138. his last run came at plumpton where he finished fourth behind court minstrel, a horse rated 131. all of a sudden the form of dodging bullets win takes a different complexion in my opinion. 

anyway, dodging bullets followed up on that success by beating river maigue in what can only be described as a messy race, by just over a length at the same venue, and interestingly enough, the third horse home was court minstrel who as i have mentioned previously beat hi note comfortably. court minstrel has only finished a couple of lengths off of dodging bullets. all things considered im beginning to think that dodging bullets cannot be much more than a 145 rated horse, which is a lot less than his official rating of 155.

he then went on to run in the christmas hurdle at kempton, where having travelled well enough in a steadily run race, he actually found very little when the pressure was applied and was eventually beaten seven lengths into third behind darlan. considering the pace of that race, i think he was flattered by the proximity to the winner. and i think that was possibly born out in his final race which came in the supreme novices hurdle at the cheltenham festival. racing in midfield for most of the way and out wide, he found very little when pressure was applied and was a well beaten ninth at the finish behind champagne fever and my tent or yours. and what was most surprising was that river maigue who he had previosly beaten by just over a length, finished one place in front of him. again just my opinion here, but to me river maigue looks fully exposed now as a hurdler and is probably not much better than 135.

looking at the race ahead, on all known form i just dont think dodging bullets will be good enough to win this. in fact i have a feeling that were he trained by a slightly less fashionable yard, his odds would be far greater than the 5/2 on offer here. the only thing that could give him hope is that he finds some drastic improvement for the step up in distance, but considering he raced on the flat in ireland at up to ten furlongs, i have my doubts about that.

the fav is up and go and donald mccain's five-year-old could be anything to be honest. connections deliberately bypassed cheltenham and from what i have read they hope he will make into a top class chaser in the future. he hasn't done much wrong in three hurdle starts to date, though his debut over hurdles wasn't his best experience. probably in about third when he came down at the second last in a grade two event at sandown which was won by taquin du seuil. he has certainly stepped up on that effort since though as next time out he easily accounted for many clouds at wetherby, and without doubt improved again last time at ascot when slamming aim to prosper by six lengths, though it could have been far greater had he not been eased right down. proven over this distance and i dont see any reason why he shouldn't handle this slightly faster ground, he should prove a tough nut to rack. however i would have to say though that even without up and go in the line up, i would still be quite happy to take dodging bullets on with eduard and utopie des bordes.

eduard i would have to say looks certain to be suited by the step up in trip, being related to cornerback who won over much further, and to be honest he has done okay so far in his hurdle races. last time out at kelso in a grade two event, he suffered a somewhat surprise defeat at the hands of mwaleshi. he travelled very well throughout that race but just failed to quicken up on ground that was described as very tacky. he is another who bypassed cheltenham in order to take this in.

utopie des bordes is probably the most interesting in my opinion. when she beat she ranks me at sandown back in february, i thought she looked destined for the top. connections decided to run her in the albert bartlett at the cheltenham festival, but she appeared to race to keen early on but despite that, she still appeared to be bang in contention at the second last, but then faded badly. it could be that she just didn't stay the three miles and if that is the case, then this drop back in trip will certainly aid her cause. she has won on both good and heavy ground so conditions should not be too much of a concern and if up and go blazes a trail, as in his two previous races, then the fast pace should also suit.

all in all i will be having my maximum lay (which is 2% of my bank) and not the full bank all in type posts that you do see on this forum, on dodging bullets.

i think i will also be having a bet which i think represents some value against the favourite on utopie des bordes.


best of luck to anyone having a bet.