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Best 2.4 mile horse in the country and 4th fav 
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bedause aps on it not barry
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Think the markets getting it right, I cant have the horse in this, if they all stand their ground.
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Joined: 05 May 12 | Topic/replies: 398 | Blogger: ohyouknowdoya's blog
"Think the markets getting it right, I cant have the horse in this, if they all stand their ground" That's what they all said last year before Oscar Whisky turned over the Champion Hurdle winner & Thousand Stars at the top of his game. Over 2m5f and less Oscar Whisky has NEVER been unplaced (with the exception of 1 fall). Of his 15 completed starts at that 2m5f or less he's won 13 of them. 6/1 is a crazy price & I don't think I've ever seen a better Each Way bet to nothing. |
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You're picking out the best of his form and supposing he'll reproduce it,
Last two runs were well below his best, this is a better race, we'll see  |
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You're right I am picking his best form, because it's all at this distance. The horse has never been a 3 miler, he would have either bypassed Cheltenham or gone for the Champ Hurdle had Big Buck's been running.
I really don't think you can judge a horse running over what's clearly the wrong distance, everyone will do hence he's available at 6/1. I would take the view that because he was pulled up when out of contention he was actually given an easy race in the World Hurdle to keep him fresh for this day given the Aintree Hurdle has been identified as the long run target for this horse all season. The main issue for me is Geraghty choosing to ride Grandouet but that's the only negative against a long list of positives & jockeys have been known to get it wrong occasionally!! I don't think it's too hard to pick holes in the other runners either. The New One: Hasn't run out of novice company Zarkandar: Hasn't won a grade 1 outside of novice/juvenile company Grandouet: Returning from a fall, often finds less than looks likely. May not stay Countrywide Flame: Needs to step up on form shown this year. |
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Emmm, it's all about opinions, think Zarkandar wants this trip now, as does countrywide,
ground will suit it too, The new one is on the up and progressive, not sure about Grandouet, but Geraghty prefer's it to whisky, so I'd have Zar,country and tno, before whisky. No bet race for me, but if forced, countrywide. |
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very trappy race this, often is with all sorts of imponderables
better races to bet in at Aintree |
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I agree that Oscar is way too big....class act over this trip. 3 miles not his trip, and 6-1 is way too big for 2 times winner who has got beat last twice due to distance. Chance taken on him being near his best, but at 6-1 its worth the risk.....why Geraghty has chosen an unproven stayer over a superstar over 2m 4 is beyond me.......
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Yes it is all about opinions, I'm not dismissing any other opinions on other horses. All are very valid.
I'm just making a strong case for my selection. As a betting heat this is the puzzle that interests me the most of the whole meeting, will be a fascinating race to see how most of these have come out of their respective Cheltenham outings along with a couple of others who bypassed the festival to come straight here. |
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it's completely murky
How will Grandouet and Zarkandar (first time blinkers) perform over 2 miles 4 furlongs for the first time? You have no idea and therefore it is impossible to form a reliable estimate of the true chances of any of the runners Grandoue in particular might love it. He could be cruising at lower speed than he needs and able to produce his turn of foot a the end. Zarkandar might really appreciate the extra distance Seriously this is a no bet race |
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Are we 100% sure that Geraghty choose Grandouet over OW. It just doesn't make any sense.
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he has the choice and the fact he is on Grandouet speaks volumes. If I were forced to bet I would take Barrys tip
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I'm just making a strong case for my selection.
I don't see how you can make a STRONG case for the horse, there are to many doubts, and the jockey who has partnered him in most of his wins has deserted him in favour a horse who appears to have doubts as well. This surely has to worry anybody backing Oscar, prefer to watch it, but I would be tempted by 6s on countrywide, as he is the one most likely to run his race. |
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OW fans - you can't seriously suggesting his performance at Cheltenham was because it was a 3 mile race? Because on the day, he wouldn't have won at any distance, with a 20 length start.
If he reproduces last years form he'll probably win, but he certainly isn't a bet to nothing. If he's in the sort of form he was in 3 weeks ago, he not only won't finish in the frame, he won't finish at all. |
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agree it's trappy (placepot only for me) - if you think OW is a big price, then surely you must think the same about Thousand Stars?
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I had this exact debate on this forum prior to last year's Aintree Hurdle with everyone saying that Oscar Whisky was a spent force having finished the World Hurdle legless just a few weeks before.
IMO this is a flat track horse, he's unsuited to Cheltenham & he's only gained his successes there in the past due to his class getting him through. On a flat track over 2.5m Oscar Whisky is a totally different proposition, he's come back from disappointing runs over 3m before so looking down that list of prices he's the only one who just has to go out & repeat exactly what he did last year in identical circumstances. The 6/1 looks to me to be the most out of line, all the others are going to have to improve/step up in distance to take this & therefore look fairly priced. |
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Really thought this horse was the best 20/21f horse around, but he ran so much worse in this year's world hurdle compared to the last that I'm left questioning the horse's wellbeing.
Didn't they say he returned home slightly lame? It would be nice to know how much work he's done since Cheltenham, and the same goes for all the others - normally a lot of horses miss a week of work after Cheltenham. Too much guessing  such a tricky looking race because it could be the best Aintree Hurdle we've seen for a while, but it could also be the worst if certain horses don't stay, or run their race because they're knackered. |
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8.4 on the exchanges at the moment, I've had worse guesses.
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as I've said, it is nigh on impossible to price up this race
one to watch not bt on |
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Firstly regarding OW run at the festival, this has to be completely dismissed as he clearly was not right. With regards to the staying 3M he clearly does - when right. Trials day shows this and it was in heavy ground. The fact he came second to a proven 3M by a short distance proves this.
The question is has the market got it wrong in terms of factoring in his last run. If we put a line through this run then this clearly gives us value. On the other side of the market is the market gettin far too excited by the new one's performance at the festival. I believe it is. Taking both these factors into account - 6/1 is clear value and his form at this course and distance cerments the pick for this race. Zakander an Grandouet are by no means as proven as Oscar, the jockey switch cannot be that much of a concern considering AP is now on board. Surely that can also be seen as a positive?!?! The fact that CWF is the same price as Oscar is ridiculous, and anyone choosing CSW clearly does not see value when it's in front of the . Oscar has to be the pick with all considered. |
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three weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree this year as opposed to four weeks last year.
OW has beaten TS by a neck in each of the previous renewals of the race. Comments from both Mullins and Henderson in their pre season stable tours are quite illuminating - Mullins stated intention to bypass Cheltenham with Thousand Stars and target Aintree Hurdle, Henderson stating it was a good thing that they had four weeks last year to allow OW to recover from his Cheltenham observers. It's still trappy 'cos TNO and Grandouet could be anything and Zark and CF could improve for step up in trip - especially the latter based on the way he finished the Champion Hurdle. I have talked myself into a small ew bet on Thousand Stars though. |
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^ previous two renewals
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I have backed Thousand Stars too, hopefully the ground will be soft enough.
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I would be more concerned with Ruby deserting him than his Cheltenham run myself
 Grandouet fell too far out in CH to know where he would have finished..but going well at the time but distance an unknown.... tricky but I have taken 6/1 |
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Think you mean Barry deserting him. The two are almost certainly related, he's deserted him because of the terrible run at Cheltenham. I do find it strange though because I think Grandulet has almost no chance of getting the trip.
They are both coming off the back of awful runs last time out, but I am pretty tempted by the thought of around 50-1 on a repeat of the straight forecast from the last 2 years. If they run their races, I don't think they have to beat anything any better than they already have - they thumped Rock on Ruby last year. The New One could be anything, but until he shows us he's a Championship horse then he's "just" a very promising 5yo novice. Would any of the others beat Rock n Ruby? I don't think so tbh. |
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Won last two runnings , not sure if you get a bigger positive , apart from the price
BG has made it clear the decision was tough so he knows OW could do it easily on song , I will take 6s chances like this all day , count me in and good luck |
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apologies Barym yes I meant Barry
 ..I have backed Thousand Stars as well it would be quite incredible if the forecast came up the same 3 years running but agree with your assessment, it is unknown territory for a lot of the others gl  |
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I've napped him today.
At 8s it seems incredible value. Loves this course loves this race |
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How many times has Chelt form crashed at Aintree?
And poor runs at the Festival have turned around |
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ap is a big negative would not be surprised to see him not finish today
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A little money coming in for it.
Back to a more realistic price |
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Go on son.
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