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2.15 Haydock - CANNINGTON BROOK 6-1
Ran in the Betfair Chase in which he finished last and was outclassed, however he enjoys this track and with the ground likely to be very testong underfoot he can carry the weight through the mud to win this class 2 handicap which is more his level. The danger is the bottom weighted Vamizi and Merry King, but I will take Cannington Brook under Tom O'Brien to come out on top in this handicap and he rates as decent value at 6-1
2.00 Ascot - SMAD PLACE 9-4
No Big Bucks and this looks a poor division of staying hurdlers without him. Smad Place I would have closer to odds on as the Wetherby race he needed the run and was up against a better quaility of opposition in the revitalized Tidal Bay. A winner of a listed handicap at this track was followed with a very decent effort under a welter burden of weight and then the 3rd in the World Hurdle is much better then anything else on offer in the long walk hurdle and he should take all the beating under choc Thornton. Danger is Master of the Hall who interestingly reverts too the smaller obstacles and if translating his chase form in small fields on this ground should give Smad Place something to think about for Nicky Henderson and as far as im concerned looks the only danger, Trustan Times is next best.
Ran in the Betfair Chase in which he finished last and was outclassed, however he enjoys this track and with the ground likely to be very testong underfoot he can carry the weight through the mud to win this class 2 handicap which is more his level. The danger is the bottom weighted Vamizi and Merry King, but I will take Cannington Brook under Tom O'Brien to come out on top in this handicap and he rates as decent value at 6-1
2.00 Ascot - SMAD PLACE 9-4
No Big Bucks and this looks a poor division of staying hurdlers without him. Smad Place I would have closer to odds on as the Wetherby race he needed the run and was up against a better quaility of opposition in the revitalized Tidal Bay. A winner of a listed handicap at this track was followed with a very decent effort under a welter burden of weight and then the 3rd in the World Hurdle is much better then anything else on offer in the long walk hurdle and he should take all the beating under choc Thornton. Danger is Master of the Hall who interestingly reverts too the smaller obstacles and if translating his chase form in small fields on this ground should give Smad Place something to think about for Nicky Henderson and as far as im concerned looks the only danger, Trustan Times is next best.
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+5pts after Day 1
1.30 Thurles - JOXER 3-1 I am prepared to go against the Giginstown Stud favourite in this even though team tactics are quite possiable with 60% of the field from one owner, However Joxer looks the better off the two market leaders in this race in reciept of 10lbs in weight today and comes into this race in decent form just like the favourite. Both are improving and should be the ones to fight out the finish, but Joxer is 3-1 in comparison to 8-15 for Mignight Game. 2L 2nd to Monksland is decent graded form and that rival would be 1/7 against Midnight Game at these weights so you can see the angle needing to be taken on this one. See you all on Boxing day morning and have a merry x-mass |
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+4pts after day 2
1.45 Wetherby - MERIGO 12-1 Ayr Specialist Merigo will most probably be unfancied as all his best form comes in the Scottish National but he looks set to run a big race today here in a race that will most probably feel like 4 miles in the conditions and he has handled cut well before over 3M so no reason why he shouldnt be involved in the finish in this handicap today. 2.35 Kempton - COUNTRYWIDE FLAME 2-1 Only see Darlan as the danger to this fast improving dual purpose gelding who will be amongst the favourites for the champion hurdle after this afternoon I feel. Darlan there is some doubts about on the ground and that is enough for me to side with Countrywide Flame for this grade 1 hurdle, he certainly holds cinders and ashes and no reasons why that horse should reverse the form as Countrywide flame had him covered a long way out in the fighting fifth under similiar conditions. 3.10 Kempton - LONG RUN 9-4 No Kauto Star this time and a lot unproven horses over the trip in For Non Stop and Cue Card, While Grande Crus you have to ask questions about after his recent flops and breathing ops on heavy ground is a big no no for me as air into the lungs has to be at a premier to last a trip out at this level. Long Run is proven has beaten Riverside theatre before in this event and no reason why he cant again as that rival looks the danger and potential 1-2 for Nicky Henderson in this event. Cue Card is the danger of the 2nd season chasers but I will side with the proven stayer and consistent Long run who would be more 11-10 if it wasnt for the Jockey, I will take Long run at 9-4 as the bet as its worth the risk with Sam on board, The Giant Bolster and Kauto Stone are ones to fight out for minor placings with cue card and Riverside theatre the more likely to follow Long Run home. Best of luck all |
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completely agree with your christmas hurdle comments
the mccain/brooke horse in the bumper in sedgefield really ought to win, probably the best for today imo |
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gonna get stuck into milarrow (1:25) in the place market ; likewise laying liverpool ; the giant bolster ,at the odds, is a small play in the kg ,imo .
gl all |
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+4.25pts after Day 3
2.05 Kempton - FOR NON STOP 2-1 Didnt jump a fence last time out in a small field chase race at Ascot that was high of quaility and still beat Ghizao that day, today he has a stiffer test of stamina in terms of trip and that should see him confirm the form, he handles the ground and looks top class, the side stepping of the King George yesterday for this target can pay dividends too conections and the form of that race has been well franked, he was highly impressive when bolting up in the Old Roan Chase and looks highly likely to figure in the finish in this resceduled Peterbrough chase. 3.40 Kempton - KUMBESHWAR 5-1 May have been helped by Sanctuaire paying the price for being far too aggressive in the Tingle Creek but he did pass that rival up the finish in easy fashion to chase home sprinter scare who cruised to victory and while he may be below the Henderson horse he is still a decent chaser in his own right and this looks like his race for the season, Sanctuaire had a harder race at Sandown and may well be more heart broken and even though he should have the King horse covered in terms of ability he doesnt look a betting proposition at 5/4 when the King horse is 5/1 and has the reciept of weight (4lbs) on his side and that could well be a leveller and Kumbeshwar looks the biggest danger in my view and is my bet of the day as I dont see much between the two at the weights. |
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Leah Claire ew 2.35@14s.
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+2.25pts after Day 4
3.00 Leopardstown - TIDAL BAY 9/2 Ran a cracker in the Hennessy Gold cup giving weight away to progressive 2nd season chasers and that effort was a startling achievement for a horse that has been called plenty of things in his time. It proved that he is a highly talented dual purpose horse and one can only imagine what he could have achieved if with Paul Nichols from the start, anyhow his record on this type of going speaks for itself and while Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs have a lot less miles on the clock, Tidal bay is as good as ever and looks decent value in comparison to his two market rivals. At a very big price China Rock could go very well even though fully exposed, we havent seen that horse since he won at Punchestown in decent fashion from a decent enough field of chasers, today he has the ideal conditions and the biggest concern for him would be if he is fit enough to do himself justice on seasonal reapperance and u could argue he needs to go the other way around. |
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like a few of howard johnsons seems to have a flat spot like inglis d ,comes again whitbread 3m5f ideal,its got a great chance but 3 miles could just be to short ,but if the 2 favs falter its class could help him still win.
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The meeting and time would be helpful. Thanks
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great ride
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well done Top3
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+6.75pts after day 5
2.55 Doncaster - CARPINCHO 14/1 I like this horse alot and prepared to forgive the last few runs he has had as I think he has had excuses, Sarah Humphrey stable star is well handicapped at the right end of the weights and should give jack doyle a good chance based on novice form, ground should suit and he will stay in the conditions. Categeorical and Emperor concerto are two others that could go well, while fill the power has the best recent form, But I will chance Carpincho today |
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+5.75pts after Day 6
2.55 Taunton - FINE PARCHMENT 7/1 Deiredh Re - 148 (3/1) Fine Parchment - 147 (7/1) Honest John - 142 (7/2) Requin - 137 (17/2) Presented - 137 (10/1) Inside Dealer - 136 (9/1) No Secrets - 136 (11/2) Take of Shoc - 133 (33/1) Paul Nichols Deiredh Re should be hard to beat in this handicap chase and comes out on top, But Fine Parchment looks a massive danger in this handicap chase even though his best is over a slight shorter trip. Taunton isnt a differcult track to get this just under 3M trip and he should have a chance given how well handicapped he is for this having moved well at the head of affairs when unseating his rider at Fakenham off todays mark, he should go close in this handicap and rates as my bet of the day at 7-1 given the nice racing weight the claimmers claim gives him. Honest John is the other danger to the selection but I couldnt play at 7-2 odds. |
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+4.75pts after Day 7
2.50 Ayr - KUDU COUNTRY 4/1 Desert Cry - 150 (13/8) Kudu Country - 149 (4/1) Rossini Dancer - 142 (11/2) Prosecco - 141 (9/2) Locked inthepocket - 140 (6/1) Deset Cry form ties in with Kudu Country and there could be reason to see the form confirmed, however Kudu Country is much better weighted and was beaten by a course specialist that day and I feel the fact they are prepared to take him on again under similiar conditions can see him reverse the form here today and at 4/1 in comparison to the rivals price I will take the plunge. |
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3.00 Ayr - HOLLO LADIES 12/1
Hollo Ladies - 137 (12/1) Leith Walk - 130 (10/1) Lady bluesky - 129 (8/1) Pas Trop Tard - 129 (15/8) Purcell's Bridge - 129 (7/2) Seven Is Lucky - 128 (5/1) Ferdy Murphy Hallo Ladies is well handicapped and does handle soft ground based on his form when with Noel Meade and even though he was beaten behind seven is Lucky in a competitive affair at Aintree last time I can see a much improved effort on the horizon as he is dropped another 6lbs and is now off a mark of 118 which given the fact he was a winner of the grade 1 future champion novice hurdle back in 2009 is just too short a price against these. The rest are all of similiar ability in this wide open event in which Leith Walk looks also overpriced. +3.75pts after day 8 3/12 Winners (25%) 8/12 Placed (66.67%) |
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3.10 Musselbrugh - PENTIFFIC 9/2
Pentiffic - 159 (9/2) Door Boy - 155 (10/1) Isla Pearl Fisher - 154 (5/2) Beneficial Reform - 154 (6/1) O Crotaigh - 154 (12/1) Allanard - 152 (14/1) Stormin Exit - 144 (7/2) Pentiffic looks very well handicapped for this and should have conditions too run nearing his best form today. He would have finished close at Doncaster in a Class 2 event on the last time he ran well and that was then followed with some tough asks and against decent rivals and he was put in his place, he has slipped to a atractive mark of 116 which is 15lbs officially lower then the Doncaster run. The conditions arent suppose to be as testing as first thought and Musselbrugh 3M under these conditions should be right up his street and the right handed course should be ideal, he should be able to run his best run for the season today and he rates as a betting proposition at 9/2 |
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+2.75 after Day 9
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vwd
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Well done top3man the stable knew good money for it.
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+7.25pts after Day 10
3.20 Chepstow - MONBEG DUDE 12-1 Monbeg Dude - 188 (12/1) Viking Blond - 187 (9/1) Sona Sasta - 184 (9/1) Giles Cross - 182 (12/1) Master Overseer - 178 (14/1) Across the Bay - 178 (25/1) Our Island - 178 (16/1) Universeal Soilder - 177 (10/1) Triggerman - 175 (50/1) Harouet - 174 (50/1) Jandali - 172 (33/1) Michael Le Bon - 171 (15/2) Teaforthree - 170 (3/1) Alfie Spinner - 166 (16/1) Arbor Supreme - 165 (33/1) Soll - 163 (12/1) Incentivise - 162 (50/1) Mon Mome - 160 (40/1) Won last time out at Cheltenham when holding on all out from Bradley, however he travelled strongly through out and maybe was better then the winning distance suggested, he was out of the handicap that day and enjoyed the light weight in the conditions, the pace of the race was strong and he looked a strong stayer, the fact that Tom Scudermore is with Master Overseer shouldnt be looked into too much as Jamie Moore won on Monbeg Dude last time out and the addition of Mr Carberry on a strong traveller is a big bonus for the horse this time around. Low weighted but in the handicap he should enjoy every yard of this roller coaster and he can confirm the form with Viking Blond who has been laid out for this handicap after failing in it 12 months ago after playing up before the race in which he was sent off as favourite for. A low weight is often needed for this marathon in the mud and he has that. |
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3.40 Sandown - HEY BIG SPENDER 16-1
Across the Bay - 190 (10/1) Johns Spirit - 186 (6/1) Hey Big Spender - 186 (16/1) Triolo D'Arlene - 182 (8/1) Royal Charm - 180 (6/1) Railway Dillion - 177 (14/1) Guliable Gordan - 170 (25/1) Katenko - 170 (7/1) Tartek - 169 (14/1) Fruity O'Rooney - 168 (9/1) Tamarinbleu - 167 (28/1) Alfie Spinner - 165 (5/1) With Across the Bay likely to take his place in the Welsh National, Jason Maguire will ride Railway Dillion in this if able to do the 10 stone in weight, however I am Prepared to give the top weight Hey Big Spender another go after he tailed off and was pulled up last time out at Ascot, however he may have needed that run after a break and should be a lot fitter for this today. On his Day he is a very talented horse and he stays well which will be needed in this event today which plenty of high class horses have gone well in this in the past (neptune Collonges went well of top weight 12 months ago. Johns Spirit is the main danger and should go well once again at this venue. |
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Good luck T3M.
Definitely with you on Hey Big Spender. |
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After Day 11
P/L +18.25pts Selections = 15 Winners = 5 S/R = 33.33% Placers = 10 S/R = 66.67% ROI = 121.66% |
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Great call on Monbeg Dude mate.
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thanks glossy
2.55 Plumpton - Well Refreashed 11-2 Well refreashed - 151 (11/2) Reblis - 146 (6/1) Brunettes Only - 145 (12/1) Miko De Beauchene - 144 (7/1) Present to You - 143 (10/1) Pettifour - 140 (6/1) Master Neo - 139 (12/1) Hodgson - 139 (16/1) Mission Compleate - 139 (5/1) Qualviro - 138 (12/1) Tim the Chair - 135 (16/1) Double Dizzy - 119 (8/1) Was coming to challange Pete the Feat back in november when over pitching and failing to complete, the winner that day has gone in again since and Well Refreshed has made amends since when beating Ridgin De beauchene over the same course and distance and was raced wide to give him the maxium view of his fences, he is a strong traveller and looked too have a bit in hand handicap wise under tough goings and these fences should be more then ideal for him as he does have a tendency too make a mistake. No Reason why under a 6lbs higher mark he cant go in again and continue his progression as had only 4 starts over fences and is continuing his upwards curve. Ground ok and looking at his style of running he is likely to be patiently ridden into contention here and should be competitive off this mark. The two dangers are at oppossing ends of the handicap and Brunettes Only looks a shade overpriced as well, But I expect more from Well Refreshed and that is my choice for the Sussex National. |
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well done again today . I,m starting to take notice of your threads , it seams you know your stuff not like the have a go hero,s that mainly tip on here .
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well done yet again top analysis spot on
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heads up again.
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Well.done, another national winner
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+23.75pts after Day 12
Selections = 16 Winners = 6 Strike Rate = 37.50% ROI = 148.44% Placers = 11 S/R = 68.75% Thanks guys and Stattman, there are plenty better then me at picking winners, just having the rub of the green |
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well your doing very good, so keep banging them in if every one on here started really trying to study and give there best wee could start beating bookies, its possible if stick ot strong value bets, im the guiltiest for betting to many for enjoyment well done.
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3.40 Taunton - BELLFLOWER BOY 13-2
Bellflower Boy -159 (13/2) Rackham Lerouge - 147 (15/2) Bennys Mist - 144 (11-8) Foxesbow - 135 (10/1) Ballyagen - 134 (7-1) Kellystown Lad - 130 (9-2) Bellyflower Boy jumps travels and is classier then this bunch, I cant see any reason why he is such a big price, ok he is more exposed then Bennys Mist but he looks to be in good helath and ran well at aintree, so at the price he is the play. |
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wey what happened there
you better start rubbing that green . Never mind tomorrows another day  |
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2.30 Chepstow - SEW ON TARGET 6/1
Shangani - 145 (7/4) Anay Turge - 144 (4/1) Sew On Target - 143 (6/1) Cranky Corner - 134 (14/1) Morestead - 132 (10/1) Saved by John - 129 (4/1) Speedy Bruere - 118 (10/1) The Chepstow Novice event back in November should have some baring on this event today with the first two home that day facing up against each other and Sew on Target is much better off at the weights this time around, his conqueror Anay Turge has progressed since and could well confirm form, but I only have it as 1lb between them and Sew on Target may well hold his own better in handicapped company, I just hope that Joe Tizzard gets a better jumping rhythum out of Sew on Target then he did with Hey big spender on saturday where he tried taking about six fences with him before staying on from another county. The Favourite is likely to be warm given the glowing form of the Venetia Williams yard, but Sew on Target looks the value play at the head of the affair given the prices and at 6-1 I have to have a dabble. +22.75pts after Day 13. Stattman, I am putting it down to unlucky day 13 Maybe the ground was too tough underfoot as he stopped quite suddenly after looking like he would be involved |
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Top3man, todays blip easily explained, Luke Harvey gave it the kiss of death as soon as he selected it...!
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well done TOP3MAN
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nice one yet again . I hope your making a fortune off your hard work with those bookie chappies .
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keeping it simple
good shout but didn't hear it! |