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TODAYS BEST BETS

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Replies: 122
By:
deadbrain59
When: 08 Jan 13 16:28
exellent call.WinkWinkWink
By:
polab
When: 08 Jan 13 16:28
Well done.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 08 Jan 13 18:22
Hitting a purple patch at the moment, should end Jan in profit now

+28.75pts after day 14
Selections = 18
Winners = 7
S/R 39%
ROI 160%
Placers 12
S/R 66.67%
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 09 Jan 13 00:55
1.55 Ludlow - ULYS DU CHARMIL 5/1

Ulys Du Charmil - 153 (5/1)
In the Crowd - 151 (7-1)
Canadian Diamond - 149 (12/1)
Tidal Way - 149 (3/1)
Taroum - 145 (20/1)
Red RIverman - 143 (11/1)
Gud Day - 142 (16/1)
Brick Red - 140 (4/1)
Zama Zama - 139 (33/1)
Stow - 139 (9/1)
The Pier - 138 (14/1)
Street Dance - 138 (16/1)

Canadian Diamond could well be the answer to this nice looking handicap hurdle as he looks to get his hurdling career back on track for the Powell's with the ground drying out a bonus and would have beaten Brick Red at Cheltenham when stumbling badly in the closing stages and could have been placed, however the progressive profile of Alan King is my choice as I believe there is more to come from Ulys Du Charmil who ran into a well handicapped horse in robbie at Doncaster last time out and showed a improved level of form from his previous win, the form of that handicap hasnt taken any knocks with Ingleby Spirit running well against the highly progressive Swing Bowler and that looks strong form overal, If the rain stays away I cant see him out of the finish in this event tomorrow as he is off the same mark as the doncaster run and his conqueror wont be running off anything lower then 135 from now on after his hatrick win so effectivly Ilys Du Charmil could be well handicapped for this and that is enough for me to side with him over the 12-1 on offer for Canadian Diamond. The bottom weight has a chance
By:
Glossy
When: 09 Jan 13 01:06
Good luck T3M.

Looks a competitive affair. I've opted for Tidal Way in this one - thrown in off 120 IMO. Seems a progressive type who should go close off only 10-9. His C&D defeat of Vasco D'ycy looks fairly good form after Saturday's race at Chepstow which I think may turn out to be a pretty hot affair. Whilst Vasco finished a little way back in the end, he travelled well for much of the race and I think just got tired in the bottomless ground which didn't suit.

Probably not a good idea to oppose you in the form that you're in but here goes! GL anyway.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 09 Jan 13 23:44
unlucky Glossy, seemed to run into one today

After Day 15 +27.75pts

2.15 Catterick - CHAC DU CADRON 12/1

Pentiffic - 164 (9/2)
Chac Du Cadron - 164 (12/1)
Soudain 162 - (14/1)
Leac An Scail 162 - (16/1)
Lord Villez 160 - (16/1)
Super Ally 159 (25/1)
Jaunty Journey - 158 (11/1)
Desperate Dex - 157 (9/1)
Lively Baron - 157 (7/1)
Posh Bird - 156 (14/1)
Night in Milan - 155 (8/1)
Any Currency - 154 (15/2)
Gidam Gidam - 153 (33/1)
King Fontaine - 152 (12/1)
Cloudy Too - 144 (9/1)

Pentiffic was a decent winner on friday last week and should once again be hard to beat over this longer trip around Catterick, However Chac Du Cadron for me looks the value play in this ultra competitive staying handicap in which the lightly raced Soudain may well prove to be the biggest danger from the right end of the handicap. Chac Du Cadron acts when getting his toe into the ground and should have the conditions to suit underfoot today over this marathon trip in which a tight left handed undualting track should well suit him. Did well to finish so close to Shaking Hands at Towcester last time out in which he was pushing the pace throughout the race and that should suit his style of running around here where he should keep battling all the way to the line under a decent racing weight to which he is much better weighted with night in milan who beat him over hurdles in reciept of weight that day, well the shoe is on the other foot today and this looks like it should well suit him more and he has looked able over fences so far.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 10 Jan 13 07:03
gl.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 10 Jan 13 09:19
price has gone.
By:
Virgin
When: 10 Jan 13 14:24
TOP3MAN    Cool

16.00               £148         
16.50         £3              
17.50               £1         
18.00         £10    £29
By:
sofiakenny
When: 10 Jan 13 14:25
superb..wd
By:
polab
When: 10 Jan 13 14:26
amazing
By:
ADR_Brentford
When: 10 Jan 13 14:30
superb again TOP3MAN.
By:
stattman
When: 10 Jan 13 14:33
another excellent call well done Happy
By:
s.kenbo
When: 10 Jan 13 14:38
excellent again topman.
By:
BULLET TOOTH TONY
When: 10 Jan 13 17:41
Keep this up and u could make a 1000pts by christmas lol. No seriously its last ability in this game
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 10 Jan 13 21:04
+39.75pts After Day 16

Selections = 20
Winners = 8
S/R = 40%
ROI = 198.75%
Placers = 13
S/R = 65%
By:
deadbrain59
When: 10 Jan 13 21:09
heads up wd,didnt get 12/1.HappyWink
By:
madhatters
When: 10 Jan 13 21:35
WD Topman Grin
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 10 Jan 13 23:29
3.10 Sedgefield - DIAMOND FRONTIER 3/1

Diamond Frontier - 139 (3-1)
Simonside - 134 (7-4)
Schinkin Otto - 133 (4-1)
Mister Wall Street - 122 (3-1)

This small affair I will chance my hand in and Diamond Frontier at 3/1 looks the solid play as a small field is often the best time to catch him and he has a very good chance now he is dropped in grade after failing to complete last time out at Haydock when a tired leap in heavy ground saw him hit the deck. These soft conditions are ideal for him in comparison to say course specialist Schinkin Otto at the foot of the weights, and my theory is that if a horse enjoys this type of going then it doesnt really matter what weight he is carrying if the others dont enjoy it as much. Dropped a total of 8lbs in his last 5 chase races a left stiffish course does suit and while this rollarcoaster may be tougher then courses he had excelled on, he should see out the trip well and looks the best value on offer of the quartet.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 11 Jan 13 00:37
gl pal...hope the party keeps going.Cool
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 12 Jan 13 09:15
3.35 Warwick - RIGDIN DE BEAUCHENE 7/1

Pete The Feat 176 (4/1)
Rigdin De Beauchene 176 (7/1)
Auroras Encore 166 (40/1)
Universial Soilder 165 (20/1)
Major Maralakey 163 (12/1)
Quetin Collonges 163 (10/1)
Godsmejudge 163 (11/1)
Bradley 161 (13/2)
Flying Award 160 (14/1)
Benheir 160 (20/1)
Restless Harry 158 (7/1)
Wellforth 157 (50/1)
Sea Saffron 149 (50/1)


Two are clear on my workings and the highly progressive Pete the Feat won with a little to spare at Newbury last time out but he has been hit by a 9lbs rise and that gives Rigdin De Beauchene a chance inn a weaker renewal of this grade 3 chase. Low weighted for this contest he has kept on well behind sizing santiago (23F) at newbuey and behind sussex national scorer Well Refreashed (24F heavy) at Lingfield, both efforts have left me with the impression that the further he goes the better he will be and he has a good attitude for chasing and has been found a nice chance to land a grade 3 chase today. The yard are flying and this has been his target this season imo and the 3lbs claim for his pilot at the right end of the handicap adds to this. Auroras Encore at a big price could claim some prize money but Rigdin De beauchene is my choice for this from Pete the feat.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 12 Jan 13 14:48
3.15 Kempton - Handtheprizeover 7/2

Handtheprizeover 171 (7/2)
Stoneystreasure 169 (4/1)
Brackloon High 165 (9/1)
Kingsmere 161 (9/1)
Golden Chieftan 159 (11/2)
Balie Anrai 156 (9/1)
Prophete De Guye 155 (25/1)
On Trend 145 (16/1)
Mush Mir 145 (12/1)

Won last time out off a light weight thanks to the claimmers claim, but today he gets the steady hands of Nick Schofield as he bids for a 4 timer so in fact he carries 15lbs more this time around then last time around and that could stop him being what I see as a handicap blot for this today, but with the experience of Nick Schofield I feel he should go close again in this. Alan King Stoneys treasure is a big danger to the selection, while i was tempted to back Brackloon high but would have liked a few more pts to his 9/1 price, so I will side with handtheprizeover who is highly progressive and can get his final win of the season today.
By:
BULLET TOOTH TONY
When: 12 Jan 13 15:45
Gutsy
By:
polab
When: 12 Jan 13 15:49
well done
By:
Virgin
When: 12 Jan 13 15:54
Rigadin De Beauchene wd TOP3MAN    Cool

Had Godsmejudge  Cry @ a better price though
By:
The_Chubster
When: 12 Jan 13 15:59
Well Done, thought RDB was done for but rallied well.
Excellent race reading.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 12 Jan 13 16:39
heads up t3WinkWink
By:
stattman
When: 12 Jan 13 17:21
top class yet again Happy
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 13 Jan 13 12:59
+44.75pts After Day 18

Selections = 23
Winners = 9
S/R = 39.13%
ROI = 194.56%
Placers = 14
S/R = 60.87%

2.20 Kelso - EMIRATE ISLE 4/1

Gleann Na Ndochais 123 (7/4)
Emirates Isle 122 (4/1)
Sergeant Pink 119 (3/1)
Saddle Pack 115 (16/1)
Prince Tam 113 (15/2)
Topo Gigo 110 (9/1)

The bottom weighted Emirates Isle looks the play in this handicap in extreme weather conditions and Brian Harding can guide him to a follow up win having won with a littl bit to spare last time out at Catterick when even hitting the last fence he was runing away with it and should be thereabouts and at 4-1 he can shake up the fav who is the danger
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 16 Jan 13 00:16
+43.75pts after Day 19

2.25 Newbury - Mountainous 11/2

Mountainous 160 (11/2)
Monkerty Turnkty 158 (11/2)
Iona Days 157 (20/1)
Thanks for Coming 156 (9/1)
Richards Sundance 154 (16/1)
Loch Ba 154 (15/2)
Goring One 153 (14/1)
Kings Lodge 152 (14/1)
Alderluck 149 (14/1)
Time for Spring 149 (20/1)
Barlow 147 (12/1)
Allthekingshorses 147 (12/1)
Ringa Bay 144 (14/1)
Fighting Flynn 132 (14/1)

The outsider Iona Days has a better chance then his odds suggest after a decent 2nd to the progressive Mister Hyde last time out at Kempton's Christamas meeting, however he does have a tendency to jump right which wont be ideal for a left handed track and maybe he is best waited with until given a right handed track after Brackloon High franked the form on saturday and he is firmly in the notebook even though at 20-1 it is tempting to have a minor interest in the horse at the weights today. Mountainous is my selection in this event today after making a much more favourable impression then on debut at his beloved ffos Lass in which a combination of 20F and needing the run as well as being novicy put pay to his chances in which he battled on without making a impression of a high class chaser, however the next run at Chepstow in testing conditions over 3M and he should relish every yard of this trip providing the ground doesnt dry out, its forecasted as soft but could well be more testing then advertised even though a sunny day is forecasted, The claimmer continues and I feel he will progress again under these conditions and could hold his own in these types of handicaps providing he is given the conditions underfoot and connections will have a eye on the welsh national in december for him.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 16 Jan 13 22:37
+42.75pts after day 20
2.50 Wincanton - Doubleintotrouble 11/1

Chartreux 160 (11-4)
Dusky Bob 156 (9-2)
Doubleintotrouble 155 (11-1)
Miko De Beauchene 154 (7-1)
Petttifour 153 (5-1)
Richards Sundance 153 (7-1)
Upham Atom 147 (14-1)
Chasers Chance 144 (20-1)
Etxalar 137 (12-1)

This looks plain sailing for the favourite from the Tom George Yard as he ran into one at Newbury last time out and looks like he should improve for the further trip today, Dusky Bob is a danger but at a bigger price the lightly weighted Doubleintotrouble looks a viable betting proposition at 11-1 for this given the claimmers weight allowance (9-7) offsets the out of the handicap angle and he lost nothing in defeat last time out when finishing 2nd to Ukrainian star at thats rival beloved Hereford. I think the weight may well tell today as he loves the ground and can grind it out in the finish and challange the fav and at 11-1 I am a player despite him being 5lbs inferior on my calculations. The claimmer has looked able before.
By:
stattman
When: 16 Jan 13 23:21
Top3man
Doubleintrouble is 18.5 on betfair right now .Happy
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 19 Jan 13 13:04
13.35 Naas - So Young 7/4

Solwhit - 185 (4-5)
So young - 180 (7-4)
Whatuthink - 173 (14-1)
Maller Tree - 171 (33-1)
Eyesontheprize - 162 (40-1)
Imperial Shabra - 157 (100-1)

Solwhit should take all the beating and no surprise to see him at 4-5 for this, however he has had his problems and these conditions are terriable underfoot, So young isnt much worse then him and comes here after some almost efforts and is my idea of todays bet as he is fit for this and will like the conditions, whatuthink is handicapped by the weights and maybe maller tree could run well at a big price, but at 7-4 I will play So young in my only bet of the day.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 19 Jan 13 13:20
hope your rightt3.MischiefMischief
By:
xmoneyx
When: 19 Jan 13 13:28
your putting skinto to shame
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 26 Jan 13 01:13
+41.75pts after Day 21

Day 22 bets

1.50 Cheltenham - Kumbeshwar place @ 7-2 (betfair)

Sprinter Sacre - 217 (1/5)
Sanctuaire - 204 (15/2)
Kumbeshwar - 189(40/1)
Sommersby - 189 (12/1)
William Wishes - 179 (14/1)
Oiseau De Nuit - 178 (66/1)
Mad Moose - 166 (125/1)
Esteem - 106 (500/1)
Kinkeel - 98 (750/1)

Sprinter Sacre is a tool and its hard to see him being beaten in this re-arranged Victor chandler chase as he has everything on his side to take all the beating in this trial for the Champion Chase, I cant see Sanctuaire being so aggressive around here as he was at Sandown and should be the chief danger again and that is reflected in the market for this race. Somersby is much better at Ascot then he is at Cheltenham even though he has form to suggest he handles the track well enough, the ground is a concern as I dont feel he would want it this stiff underfoot and he may have a battle for a place against Kumbeshwar for whom I backed last time out against Sanctuaire at Kempton. My Bet for this race tomorrow is Kumbeshwar to place at 7-2.

2.25 Cheltenham - QUARTZ DE THAIX 14-1

Imperial Commander - 214 (6-1)??
Tidal bay - 193 (11-4)
Grande Crus - 191 (9-2)
Quartz De thaix -191 (14-1)
Hunt Ball - 190 (10-1)
Midnight Chase - 189 (14-1)
Hey Big Spender - 185 (40-1)
Little Josh -181 (33-1)
Weird Al - 181 (12-1)
Cape tribulation - 176 (12-1)
Calgary Bay - 174 (33-1)
Wayward Prince - 170 ( 14-1)

Imperial Commander getting 10lbs in weight from tidal bay a few years back would have seen him go off odds-on in this event, however one has been injuryed and the other has been revelation since they finished 1-2 in the betfair chase back in 2010. That was sadly the last time we saw the true Imperial Commander as he suffered a setback and then was pulled up in long run Gold cup back in 2011, the long awaited return is here for him and he should be hard to beat if anywhere near his best at these weights. This isnt a easy race and Tidal bay should be the one to beat as he comes out on top of my ratings if you exclude Imperial commander rating which basically cant be fully relied upon as there is question marks over his retainned ability which is a big negative for me. Grande Crus maywell be the one to take advantage of tidal bay but there is still question marks over him as well even though he did stick on in the King George on boxing day. I will chance a surprise in this trial for the Gold Cup in Venetia Williams Quartz De Thaix who has done nothing wrong this season and was a shade unlucky when finishing 2nd to Master Overseer in heavy conditions at this track. That day he had Planet of sound 10L further backand readily beat off. The conditions underfoot suit and he stays very well which will be needed in this with Midnight Chase, Little Josh and Imperial Commander all liking to force the pace.

3.35 Cheltenham - KNOCKARA BEAU 40-1

Oscar Whicky - 195 (13/8)
Walkon - 192 (10/1)
Knockara Beau - 190 (40/1)
Reve De Sivola - 190 (9/4)
Carruthers - 185 (50/1)
Kauto Stone - 179 (15/2) Chase form would be top
Lovecen - 179 (33/1)
Kentford Grey lady - 177 (22/1)
Cross Kennon - 176 (40/1)
Crack Away Jack - 171 (16/1)

Oscar Whisky has returned this season seemingly better then everand really handles tough going well it would seem, he didnt stay in the world hurdle against big bucks but may well be worth another tilt at that prize even though there is some doubts over his stamina and he would be odds on if that was proven in this as he is still the top rated even though there is some doubts over his stamina. Reve De Sivola is his main market rival and is a danger but 9-4 isnt a price for me to be getting involved at. Walkon is just as good over hurdles as he is at chasing and no surprise to see them go for this prize as he was beaten here last time over fences in which he made a error at a crucial point jumping before staying on again, this will give them a option as they protect his handicap mark, a win in this and he will surely go for the world hurdle. This could shake the market up today even though I see the Impressive Monksland as the one to beat in march with Big Bucks absence. This I feel can go to regular around here Knockara Beau who is a insulting price in this at 40-1 I feel. 6th in the Gold Cup last season he loves this track and gets his toe in he deserves abig prize and no surprise to see him run a big race, was 2nd in this in 2011.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 30 Jan 13 13:45
3.30 Leicester - IKORODU ROAD 10-1

Buddy Bolero 145 (11-10)
Ikorodu Road 142 (10-1)
Ballyoliver 140 (9-2)
Dashing George 140 (11-2)
See u Bob 138 (33-1)
Three Chords 136 (10-1)
Plum Pudding 133 (20-1)

Buddy Bolero Looks like a improver and will be hard to beat, but I feel the staying power of Ikorodu Road deserves respect and 10-1 looks way too big in price for his chance, he is the danger to the fav and at 10 times the price almost is worth the risk in this small runner affair, he did put up a decent performance last time out at his favored doncaster.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 30 Jan 13 23:08
3.10 Wincanton - Mon Mome 20/1

Michael Le bon 152 (5/2)
Mon Mome 151 (20/1)
The Sawyer 149 (20/1)
Richards Sundance 148 (8/1)
Desperate Dex 148 (11/2)
Jaunty Journey 146 (14/1)
Master Overseer 143 (5/1)
Pentiffic 140 (6/1)
Tamarinbleu 140 (16/1)
Sea Saffron 128 (14/1)

Michael Le Bon Should be hard to beat based on 2nd to The Package around here, but I am prepared to give Mon Mome for Venetia Williams one last go under what looks a feather weight for the conditions. The Selection stays this trip well and a few of these could cry enough under the conditions. the flat track of Wincanton should suit him even though he is a left handed track horse on the formbook, but he has nothing to suggest that a right handed track doesnt suit. The form he has shown this season has been below what you would expect and thats why he is 20-1 for this, but despite being beaten a long way last time out in the Welsh national he did complete finishing a respectable 8th of 17 in which he may have failed to get home under the conditions. This rates as his easiest test for some time as he has been dropped another 7lbs in the handicap and he has got form on tough going over a shorter trip then 3.5M to 4M trips so he should stay, the claimmers claim means he has 143lbs to carry for the double handed trainer and he hasnt been off a mark this low since his novice days. Its a risk but at 20-1 he is worth chancing when figuring so high on my workings. The Sawyer could go well but has stamina concerns.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 03 Feb 13 22:05
3.00 ROCK ON RUBY 2/1

A Tactical affair in which Rock on Ruby who is 8-1 for the champion Hurdle in March is very much the one horse who is overpriced in that event and also seems to be a shade overpriced in this event today. Darlan will be useful on a speed track as he was at Kempton and Rock on ruby who ran a close 2nd to binocular in the same event 12 months earlier recorded a better RPR for his effort. The doncaster track is a stiffer test of stamina and Darlan sprinted clear at kempton in heavy conditions in a event that was ran at a slow pace. Rock on Ruby will like this 16.5 furlong even though cheltenham will be a better test of stamina for him. Countrywide flame won the fighting fifth well but he was much better then his rivals that day and Newcastle played more to his strengths then Kempton, today will see him once again staying on and rock on ruby and Darlan should have too many gears for him. Rock on Ruby travelled very well in the international and at one point looked to be going the best, it was reported that his trainer believed him as needing the runmore then his rivals, today he should be spot on and in a tactical event should be seen to his best, he ties the form up with the Christmas hurdle and he could well be the one to beat come the day, A win in this and he should be half the price for the champion hurdle in march.
By:
TOP3MAN
When: 04 Feb 13 22:46
3.30 PATSY FINNEGAN 10/1

I have taken a chance on this Alan King runner who needs a right handed track to be at his best, his best performances seem to come at Taunton but Market Rasen track should well suit his style of running and AlanKing does well with his runners at this track, he has dropped too a decent handicap mark and can take advantage in this weak looking field.
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