TODAYS BEST BETS

After Day 11

P/L +18.25pts

Selections = 15
Winners = 5
S/R = 33.33%
Placers = 10
S/R = 66.67%
ROI = 121.66%

Great call on Monbeg Dude mate.

thanks glossy
2.55 Plumpton - Well Refreashed 11-2

Well refreashed - 151 (11/2)
Reblis - 146 (6/1)
Brunettes Only - 145 (12/1)
Miko De Beauchene - 144 (7/1)
Present to You - 143 (10/1)
Pettifour - 140 (6/1)
Master Neo - 139 (12/1)
Hodgson - 139 (16/1)
Mission Compleate - 139 (5/1)
Qualviro - 138 (12/1)
Tim the Chair - 135 (16/1)
Double Dizzy - 119 (8/1)

Was coming to challange Pete the Feat back in november when over pitching and failing to complete, the winner that day has gone in again since and Well Refreshed has made amends since when beating Ridgin De beauchene over the same course and distance and was raced wide to give him the maxium view of his fences, he is a strong traveller and looked too have a bit in hand handicap wise under tough goings and these fences should be more then ideal for him as he does have a tendency too make a mistake. No Reason why under a 6lbs higher mark he cant go in again and continue his progression as had only 4 starts over fences and is continuing his upwards curve. Ground ok and looking at his style of running he is likely to be patiently ridden into contention here and should be competitive off this mark. The two dangers are at oppossing ends of the handicap and Brunettes Only looks a shade overpriced as well, But I expect more from Well Refreshed and that is my choice for the Sussex National.

well done again today . I,m starting to take notice of your threads , it seams you know your stuff not like the have a go hero,s that mainly tip on here .

well done yet again top analysis spot on

heads up again.

Well.done, another national winner

+23.75pts after Day 12

Selections = 16
Winners = 6
Strike Rate = 37.50%
ROI = 148.44%
Placers = 11
S/R = 68.75%

Thanks guys and Stattman, there are plenty better then me at picking winners, just having the rub of the green

well your doing very good, so keep banging them in if every one on here started really trying to study and give there best wee could start beating bookies, its possible if stick ot strong value bets, im the guiltiest for betting to many for enjoyment well done.

3.40 Taunton - BELLFLOWER BOY 13-2

Bellflower Boy -159 (13/2)
Rackham Lerouge - 147 (15/2)
Bennys Mist - 144 (11-8)
Foxesbow - 135 (10/1)
Ballyagen - 134 (7-1)
Kellystown Lad - 130 (9-2)

Bellyflower Boy jumps travels and is classier then this bunch, I cant see any reason why he is such a big price, ok he is more exposed then Bennys Mist but he looks to be in good helath and ran well at aintree, so at the price he is the play.

wey what happened there you better start rubbing that green . Never mind tomorrows another day

2.30 Chepstow - SEW ON TARGET 6/1

Shangani - 145 (7/4)
Anay Turge - 144 (4/1)
Sew On Target - 143 (6/1)
Cranky Corner - 134 (14/1)
Morestead - 132 (10/1)
Saved by John - 129 (4/1)
Speedy Bruere - 118 (10/1)

The Chepstow Novice event back in November should have some baring on this event today with the first two home that day facing up against each other and Sew on Target is much better off at the weights this time around, his conqueror Anay Turge has progressed since and could well confirm form, but I only have it as 1lb between them and Sew on Target may well hold his own better in handicapped company, I just hope that Joe Tizzard gets a better jumping rhythum out of Sew on Target then he did with Hey big spender on saturday where he tried taking about six fences with him before staying on from another county. The Favourite is likely to be warm given the glowing form of the Venetia Williams yard, but Sew on Target looks the value play at the head of the affair given the prices and at 6-1 I have to have a dabble.

+22.75pts after Day 13.

Stattman, I am putting it down to unlucky day 13 Maybe the ground was too tough underfoot as he stopped quite suddenly after looking like he would be involved

Top3man, todays blip easily explained, Luke Harvey gave it the kiss of death as soon as he selected it...!

well done TOP3MAN

nice one yet again . I hope your making a fortune off your hard work with those bookie chappies .

keeping it simple
good shout
but didn't hear it!

exellent call.

Well done.

Hitting a purple patch at the moment, should end Jan in profit now

+28.75pts after day 14
Selections = 18
Winners = 7
S/R 39%
ROI 160%
Placers 12
S/R 66.67%

1.55 Ludlow - ULYS DU CHARMIL 5/1

Ulys Du Charmil - 153 (5/1)
In the Crowd - 151 (7-1)
Canadian Diamond - 149 (12/1)
Tidal Way - 149 (3/1)
Taroum - 145 (20/1)
Red RIverman - 143 (11/1)
Gud Day - 142 (16/1)
Brick Red - 140 (4/1)
Zama Zama - 139 (33/1)
Stow - 139 (9/1)
The Pier - 138 (14/1)
Street Dance - 138 (16/1)

Canadian Diamond could well be the answer to this nice looking handicap hurdle as he looks to get his hurdling career back on track for the Powell's with the ground drying out a bonus and would have beaten Brick Red at Cheltenham when stumbling badly in the closing stages and could have been placed, however the progressive profile of Alan King is my choice as I believe there is more to come from Ulys Du Charmil who ran into a well handicapped horse in robbie at Doncaster last time out and showed a improved level of form from his previous win, the form of that handicap hasnt taken any knocks with Ingleby Spirit running well against the highly progressive Swing Bowler and that looks strong form overal, If the rain stays away I cant see him out of the finish in this event tomorrow as he is off the same mark as the doncaster run and his conqueror wont be running off anything lower then 135 from now on after his hatrick win so effectivly Ilys Du Charmil could be well handicapped for this and that is enough for me to side with him over the 12-1 on offer for Canadian Diamond. The bottom weight has a chance

Good luck T3M.

Looks a competitive affair. I've opted for Tidal Way in this one - thrown in off 120 IMO. Seems a progressive type who should go close off only 10-9. His C&D defeat of Vasco D'ycy looks fairly good form after Saturday's race at Chepstow which I think may turn out to be a pretty hot affair. Whilst Vasco finished a little way back in the end, he travelled well for much of the race and I think just got tired in the bottomless ground which didn't suit.

Probably not a good idea to oppose you in the form that you're in but here goes! GL anyway.

unlucky Glossy, seemed to run into one today

After Day 15 +27.75pts

2.15 Catterick - CHAC DU CADRON 12/1

Pentiffic - 164 (9/2)
Chac Du Cadron - 164 (12/1)
Soudain 162 - (14/1)
Leac An Scail 162 - (16/1)
Lord Villez 160 - (16/1)
Super Ally 159 (25/1)
Jaunty Journey - 158 (11/1)
Desperate Dex - 157 (9/1)
Lively Baron - 157 (7/1)
Posh Bird - 156 (14/1)
Night in Milan - 155 (8/1)
Any Currency - 154 (15/2)
Gidam Gidam - 153 (33/1)
King Fontaine - 152 (12/1)
Cloudy Too - 144 (9/1)

Pentiffic was a decent winner on friday last week and should once again be hard to beat over this longer trip around Catterick, However Chac Du Cadron for me looks the value play in this ultra competitive staying handicap in which the lightly raced Soudain may well prove to be the biggest danger from the right end of the handicap. Chac Du Cadron acts when getting his toe into the ground and should have the conditions to suit underfoot today over this marathon trip in which a tight left handed undualting track should well suit him. Did well to finish so close to Shaking Hands at Towcester last time out in which he was pushing the pace throughout the race and that should suit his style of running around here where he should keep battling all the way to the line under a decent racing weight to which he is much better weighted with night in milan who beat him over hurdles in reciept of weight that day, well the shoe is on the other foot today and this looks like it should well suit him more and he has looked able over fences so far.

gl.

price has gone.

TOP3MAN   

16.00               £148         
16.50         £3              
17.50               £1         
18.00         £10    £29

superb..wd

amazing

superb again TOP3MAN.

another excellent call well done

excellent again topman.

Keep this up and u could make a 1000pts by christmas lol. No seriously its last ability in this game

+39.75pts After Day 16

Selections = 20
Winners = 8
S/R = 40%
ROI = 198.75%
Placers = 13
S/R = 65%

heads up wd,didnt get 12/1.

WD Topman

3.10 Sedgefield - DIAMOND FRONTIER 3/1

Diamond Frontier - 139 (3-1)
Simonside - 134 (7-4)
Schinkin Otto - 133 (4-1)
Mister Wall Street - 122 (3-1)

This small affair I will chance my hand in and Diamond Frontier at 3/1 looks the solid play as a small field is often the best time to catch him and he has a very good chance now he is dropped in grade after failing to complete last time out at Haydock when a tired leap in heavy ground saw him hit the deck. These soft conditions are ideal for him in comparison to say course specialist Schinkin Otto at the foot of the weights, and my theory is that if a horse enjoys this type of going then it doesnt really matter what weight he is carrying if the others dont enjoy it as much. Dropped a total of 8lbs in his last 5 chase races a left stiffish course does suit and while this rollarcoaster may be tougher then courses he had excelled on, he should see out the trip well and looks the best value on offer of the quartet.

gl pal...hope the party keeps going.

3.35 Warwick - RIGDIN DE BEAUCHENE 7/1

Pete The Feat 176 (4/1)
Rigdin De Beauchene 176 (7/1)
Auroras Encore 166 (40/1)
Universial Soilder 165 (20/1)
Major Maralakey 163 (12/1)
Quetin Collonges 163 (10/1)
Godsmejudge 163 (11/1)
Bradley 161 (13/2)
Flying Award 160 (14/1)
Benheir 160 (20/1)
Restless Harry 158 (7/1)
Wellforth 157 (50/1)
Sea Saffron 149 (50/1)


Two are clear on my workings and the highly progressive Pete the Feat won with a little to spare at Newbury last time out but he has been hit by a 9lbs rise and that gives Rigdin De Beauchene a chance inn a weaker renewal of this grade 3 chase. Low weighted for this contest he has kept on well behind sizing santiago (23F) at newbuey and behind sussex national scorer Well Refreashed (24F heavy) at Lingfield, both efforts have left me with the impression that the further he goes the better he will be and he has a good attitude for chasing and has been found a nice chance to land a grade 3 chase today. The yard are flying and this has been his target this season imo and the 3lbs claim for his pilot at the right end of the handicap adds to this. Auroras Encore at a big price could claim some prize money but Rigdin De beauchene is my choice for this from Pete the feat.

3.15 Kempton - Handtheprizeover 7/2

Handtheprizeover 171 (7/2)
Stoneystreasure 169 (4/1)
Brackloon High 165 (9/1)
Kingsmere 161 (9/1)
Golden Chieftan 159 (11/2)
Balie Anrai 156 (9/1)
Prophete De Guye 155 (25/1)
On Trend 145 (16/1)
Mush Mir 145 (12/1)

Won last time out off a light weight thanks to the claimmers claim, but today he gets the steady hands of Nick Schofield as he bids for a 4 timer so in fact he carries 15lbs more this time around then last time around and that could stop him being what I see as a handicap blot for this today, but with the experience of Nick Schofield I feel he should go close again in this. Alan King Stoneys treasure is a big danger to the selection, while i was tempted to back Brackloon high but would have liked a few more pts to his 9/1 price, so I will side with handtheprizeover who is highly progressive and can get his final win of the season today.

Gutsy

well done

Rigadin De Beauchene wd TOP3MAN   

Had Godsmejudge  @ a better price though

Well Done, thought RDB was done for but rallied well.
Excellent race reading.

heads up t3

top class yet again

+44.75pts After Day 18

Selections = 23
Winners = 9
S/R = 39.13%
ROI = 194.56%
Placers = 14
S/R = 60.87%

2.20 Kelso - EMIRATE ISLE 4/1

Gleann Na Ndochais 123 (7/4)
Emirates Isle 122 (4/1)
Sergeant Pink 119 (3/1)
Saddle Pack 115 (16/1)
Prince Tam 113 (15/2)
Topo Gigo 110 (9/1)

The bottom weighted Emirates Isle looks the play in this handicap in extreme weather conditions and Brian Harding can guide him to a follow up win having won with a littl bit to spare last time out at Catterick when even hitting the last fence he was runing away with it and should be thereabouts and at 4-1 he can shake up the fav who is the danger

+43.75pts after Day 19

2.25 Newbury - Mountainous 11/2

Mountainous 160 (11/2)
Monkerty Turnkty 158 (11/2)
Iona Days 157 (20/1)
Thanks for Coming 156 (9/1)
Richards Sundance 154 (16/1)
Loch Ba 154 (15/2)
Goring One 153 (14/1)
Kings Lodge 152 (14/1)
Alderluck 149 (14/1)
Time for Spring 149 (20/1)
Barlow 147 (12/1)
Allthekingshorses 147 (12/1)
Ringa Bay 144 (14/1)
Fighting Flynn 132 (14/1)

The outsider Iona Days has a better chance then his odds suggest after a decent 2nd to the progressive Mister Hyde last time out at Kempton's Christamas meeting, however he does have a tendency to jump right which wont be ideal for a left handed track and maybe he is best waited with until given a right handed track after Brackloon High franked the form on saturday and he is firmly in the notebook even though at 20-1 it is tempting to have a minor interest in the horse at the weights today. Mountainous is my selection in this event today after making a much more favourable impression then on debut at his beloved ffos Lass in which a combination of 20F and needing the run as well as being novicy put pay to his chances in which he battled on without making a impression of a high class chaser, however the next run at Chepstow in testing conditions over 3M and he should relish every yard of this trip providing the ground doesnt dry out, its forecasted as soft but could well be more testing then advertised even though a sunny day is forecasted, The claimmer continues and I feel he will progress again under these conditions and could hold his own in these types of handicaps providing he is given the conditions underfoot and connections will have a eye on the welsh national in december for him.

+42.75pts after day 20
2.50 Wincanton - Doubleintotrouble 11/1

Chartreux 160 (11-4)
Dusky Bob 156 (9-2)
Doubleintotrouble 155 (11-1)
Miko De Beauchene 154 (7-1)
Petttifour 153 (5-1)
Richards Sundance 153 (7-1)
Upham Atom 147 (14-1)
Chasers Chance 144 (20-1)
Etxalar 137 (12-1)

This looks plain sailing for the favourite from the Tom George Yard as he ran into one at Newbury last time out and looks like he should improve for the further trip today, Dusky Bob is a danger but at a bigger price the lightly weighted Doubleintotrouble looks a viable betting proposition at 11-1 for this given the claimmers weight allowance (9-7) offsets the out of the handicap angle and he lost nothing in defeat last time out when finishing 2nd to Ukrainian star at thats rival beloved Hereford. I think the weight may well tell today as he loves the ground and can grind it out in the finish and challange the fav and at 11-1 I am a player despite him being 5lbs inferior on my calculations. The claimmer has looked able before.

Top3man
Doubleintrouble is 18.5 on betfair right now .

13.35 Naas - So Young 7/4

Solwhit - 185 (4-5)
So young - 180 (7-4)
Whatuthink - 173 (14-1)
Maller Tree - 171 (33-1)
Eyesontheprize - 162 (40-1)
Imperial Shabra - 157 (100-1)

Solwhit should take all the beating and no surprise to see him at 4-5 for this, however he has had his problems and these conditions are terriable underfoot, So young isnt much worse then him and comes here after some almost efforts and is my idea of todays bet as he is fit for this and will like the conditions, whatuthink is handicapped by the weights and maybe maller tree could run well at a big price, but at 7-4 I will play So young in my only bet of the day.

hope your rightt3.

your putting skinto to shame

+41.75pts after Day 21

Day 22 bets

1.50 Cheltenham - Kumbeshwar place @ 7-2 (betfair)

Sprinter Sacre - 217 (1/5)
Sanctuaire - 204 (15/2)
Kumbeshwar - 189(40/1)
Sommersby - 189 (12/1)
William Wishes - 179 (14/1)
Oiseau De Nuit - 178 (66/1)
Mad Moose - 166 (125/1)
Esteem - 106 (500/1)
Kinkeel - 98 (750/1)

Sprinter Sacre is a tool and its hard to see him being beaten in this re-arranged Victor chandler chase as he has everything on his side to take all the beating in this trial for the Champion Chase, I cant see Sanctuaire being so aggressive around here as he was at Sandown and should be the chief danger again and that is reflected in the market for this race. Somersby is much better at Ascot then he is at Cheltenham even though he has form to suggest he handles the track well enough, the ground is a concern as I dont feel he would want it this stiff underfoot and he may have a battle for a place against Kumbeshwar for whom I backed last time out against Sanctuaire at Kempton. My Bet for this race tomorrow is Kumbeshwar to place at 7-2.

2.25 Cheltenham - QUARTZ DE THAIX 14-1

Imperial Commander - 214 (6-1)??
Tidal bay - 193 (11-4)
Grande Crus - 191 (9-2)
Quartz De thaix -191 (14-1)
Hunt Ball - 190 (10-1)
Midnight Chase - 189 (14-1)
Hey Big Spender - 185 (40-1)
Little Josh -181 (33-1)
Weird Al - 181 (12-1)
Cape tribulation - 176 (12-1)
Calgary Bay - 174 (33-1)
Wayward Prince - 170 ( 14-1)

Imperial Commander getting 10lbs in weight from tidal bay a few years back would have seen him go off odds-on in this event, however one has been injuryed and the other has been revelation since they finished 1-2 in the betfair chase back in 2010. That was sadly the last time we saw the true Imperial Commander as he suffered a setback and then was pulled up in long run Gold cup back in 2011, the long awaited return is here for him and he should be hard to beat if anywhere near his best at these weights. This isnt a easy race and Tidal bay should be the one to beat as he comes out on top of my ratings if you exclude Imperial commander rating which basically cant be fully relied upon as there is question marks over his retainned ability which is a big negative for me. Grande Crus maywell be the one to take advantage of tidal bay but there is still question marks over him as well even though he did stick on in the King George on boxing day. I will chance a surprise in this trial for the Gold Cup in Venetia Williams Quartz De Thaix who has done nothing wrong this season and was a shade unlucky when finishing 2nd to Master Overseer in heavy conditions at this track. That day he had Planet of sound 10L further backand readily beat off. The conditions underfoot suit and he stays very well which will be needed in this with Midnight Chase, Little Josh and Imperial Commander all liking to force the pace.

3.35 Cheltenham - KNOCKARA BEAU 40-1

Oscar Whicky - 195 (13/8)
Walkon - 192 (10/1)
Knockara Beau - 190 (40/1)
Reve De Sivola - 190 (9/4)
Carruthers - 185 (50/1)
Kauto Stone - 179 (15/2) Chase form would be top
Lovecen - 179 (33/1)
Kentford Grey lady - 177 (22/1)
Cross Kennon - 176 (40/1)
Crack Away Jack - 171 (16/1)

Oscar Whisky has returned this season seemingly better then everand really handles tough going well it would seem, he didnt stay in the world hurdle against big bucks but may well be worth another tilt at that prize even though there is some doubts over his stamina and he would be odds on if that was proven in this as he is still the top rated even though there is some doubts over his stamina. Reve De Sivola is his main market rival and is a danger but 9-4 isnt a price for me to be getting involved at. Walkon is just as good over hurdles as he is at chasing and no surprise to see them go for this prize as he was beaten here last time over fences in which he made a error at a crucial point jumping before staying on again, this will give them a option as they protect his handicap mark, a win in this and he will surely go for the world hurdle. This could shake the market up today even though I see the Impressive Monksland as the one to beat in march with Big Bucks absence. This I feel can go to regular around here Knockara Beau who is a insulting price in this at 40-1 I feel. 6th in the Gold Cup last season he loves this track and gets his toe in he deserves abig prize and no surprise to see him run a big race, was 2nd in this in 2011.

3.30 Leicester - IKORODU ROAD 10-1

Buddy Bolero 145 (11-10)
Ikorodu Road 142 (10-1)
Ballyoliver 140 (9-2)
Dashing George 140 (11-2)
See u Bob 138 (33-1)
Three Chords 136 (10-1)
Plum Pudding 133 (20-1)

Buddy Bolero Looks like a improver and will be hard to beat, but I feel the staying power of Ikorodu Road deserves respect and 10-1 looks way too big in price for his chance, he is the danger to the fav and at 10 times the price almost is worth the risk in this small runner affair, he did put up a decent performance last time out at his favored doncaster.

3.10 Wincanton - Mon Mome 20/1

Michael Le bon 152 (5/2)
Mon Mome 151 (20/1)
The Sawyer 149 (20/1)
Richards Sundance 148 (8/1)
Desperate Dex 148 (11/2)
Jaunty Journey 146 (14/1)
Master Overseer 143 (5/1)
Pentiffic 140 (6/1)
Tamarinbleu 140 (16/1)
Sea Saffron 128 (14/1)

Michael Le Bon Should be hard to beat based on 2nd to The Package around here, but I am prepared to give Mon Mome for Venetia Williams one last go under what looks a feather weight for the conditions. The Selection stays this trip well and a few of these could cry enough under the conditions. the flat track of Wincanton should suit him even though he is a left handed track horse on the formbook, but he has nothing to suggest that a right handed track doesnt suit. The form he has shown this season has been below what you would expect and thats why he is 20-1 for this, but despite being beaten a long way last time out in the Welsh national he did complete finishing a respectable 8th of 17 in which he may have failed to get home under the conditions. This rates as his easiest test for some time as he has been dropped another 7lbs in the handicap and he has got form on tough going over a shorter trip then 3.5M to 4M trips so he should stay, the claimmers claim means he has 143lbs to carry for the double handed trainer and he hasnt been off a mark this low since his novice days. Its a risk but at 20-1 he is worth chancing when figuring so high on my workings. The Sawyer could go well but has stamina concerns.

3.00 ROCK ON RUBY 2/1

A Tactical affair in which Rock on Ruby who is 8-1 for the champion Hurdle in March is very much the one horse who is overpriced in that event and also seems to be a shade overpriced in this event today. Darlan will be useful on a speed track as he was at Kempton and Rock on ruby who ran a close 2nd to binocular in the same event 12 months earlier recorded a better RPR for his effort. The doncaster track is a stiffer test of stamina and Darlan sprinted clear at kempton in heavy conditions in a event that was ran at a slow pace. Rock on Ruby will like this 16.5 furlong even though cheltenham will be a better test of stamina for him. Countrywide flame won the fighting fifth well but he was much better then his rivals that day and Newcastle played more to his strengths then Kempton, today will see him once again staying on and rock on ruby and Darlan should have too many gears for him. Rock on Ruby travelled very well in the international and at one point looked to be going the best, it was reported that his trainer believed him as needing the runmore then his rivals, today he should be spot on and in a tactical event should be seen to his best, he ties the form up with the Christmas hurdle and he could well be the one to beat come the day, A win in this and he should be half the price for the champion hurdle in march.

3.30 PATSY FINNEGAN 10/1

I have taken a chance on this Alan King runner who needs a right handed track to be at his best, his best performances seem to come at Taunton but Market Rasen track should well suit his style of running and AlanKing does well with his runners at this track, he has dropped too a decent handicap mark and can take advantage in this weak looking field.

Enjoy your posts, well done. What price the place part today?

The Chubster I only play on the nose fella, but place price was 6-1 on the BSP which is nearly as big as my win bet with the bookies.

4.05 Carlisle - DESTROYER DEPLOYED 12-1 (PP)

I quite like the chances of Knockara Beau in this but at the same time I keep getting drawn towards Tim Vaughan Destroyer Deployed in this Pertemps Quailifer as he looks handicapped to do himself justice in this event if it gets the go ahead tomorrow morning. The fact that a 10lb claimer has been deployed leaves him with no weight on his back and he is a talented horse in my view if on a going day. Would need to win this to give himself a chance of getting in the handicap at the cheltenham festival in which he does have some festival form as he was 2nd in the champin bumper and he ran very well when 3rd to At Fishers cross in a decent heavy ground handicap back in December and that form has been well franked since. the ground shouldnt be a problem and his best form does seem to come on courses that would be regarded as stiff with decent efforts at Cheltenham & Towcester and enjoying the undualtions of Chepstow as well in his short career as a hurdler. This horse in my view is overpriced and can deny Knockara Beau (course specialist) in reciept of potentially 30lbs in weight providing the jockey has been hitting the sauna. Corrin wood is perhaps the bigger danger as Shutthefrontdoor needs to prove his stamina.

Cheers Top3man enjoy your day .

heads up

2.30 Doncaster – 19F handicap chase – soft ground Class 3

Wings of Smoke (137) & Tahiti Pearl (128) are the two to base this race around as highly likely to run up to these recorded marks, Out of the two Wings of Smoke looks the better handicapped horse with a Adjusted RPR of 137 for his run at Newbury at the end of November and given the betting between the two it is not surprising to see Wings of Smoke at 3/1 to Tahiti Pearl 5/1 currently on offer.

Montoya’s Sun has good form under these race conditions and at Doncaster and has two RPR under similar race conditions, the first is 137 back in 2011 in a class 3 event and more recently was a 131 on the 19th January 2012, he is currently priced up as 17/2 for this event and given that his 131 is more recent his price in comparison to Wings of Smoke is about right. The Chazer has claims in this based on his Ludlow running back in December in which he recorded a 137 and if able to convert that form to a stiffer test of stamina around here over the extended 19 furlongs he would have claims, however looking through his form his bests have been all over minimum trips including at Newbury which would hold a similar test to Doncaster race course, the 7-1 available currently is maybe a little overpriced but he isn’t as proven stamina wise as Wings of Smoke for this.

Of the rest What a Warrior makes some appeal based on his Cheltenham run in October in which he contested a class 2 handicap that day. The rating he posted was 135 for that effort and the drop in class can only be considered as a positive so you could increase that rating meaning the 6-1 on offer could be regarded as value in a match with Wings of Smoke 3/1 currently on offer, the problem is that his best form seems to come under the stiffer undulations of Cheltenham and you could counter his decrease with the change to a flatter track such as this. Triangular has the best RPR on offer with a 140 recorded at Newbury, however he has shown little promise recently and the ground may well be too testing for him underfoot with it advertised as soft ground.

Wings of Smoke is likely to be the one they all have to beat and at 3-1 the books aren’t prepared to risk it. Tahiti Pearl has improved since his 128 at Doncaster with a improved performance at Sedgefield but that was under a much different test to today and is still inferior to Wings of Smoke effort, What a Warrior, Montoya’s Son and The Chazer all have claims but each one of them but all have something to overcome, What a Warrior at 6/1 looks the biggest threat over The Chazer (stamina) and Montoya’s son (ability).

Selection – Wings of Smoke (3/1)

3.45 Huntingdon – 20.5F Handicap hurdle – soft Class 2

Bakbenscher is sure to go well in this handicap with proven stamina under these conditions and based on his runs at Haydock and Newbury back in December. Today he goes the other way around and that shouldn’t be a concern for his supporters with a solid chase effort at Exeter to call upon providing that he is as effective right handed as left. The 136 he recorded on both those efforts in December is the target to be aimed at by his rivals and Art Professor for Venetia Williams catch the eyes at the weights as he is very well handicapped, however all his best running’s seem to come at Cheltenham and potentially over shorter trips, however he ran very well over this trip when tackling the Cheltenham festival and has previous good form at Kempton which isn’t a million miles away from this track, his RPR are just as good as Bakbenschar and should go well if on song, both are 6-1 for this. Quaddick Lake has improved this season and ran well at Wincanton in which he recorded a 130, he has improved on that score at Cheltenham recently and is consistent under tough conditions, he is likely to run his race again and maybe the biggest danger to Art Professor and Bakbenschar will be Romeo Americo who was massive price when 2nd to Oscara Dara at Kempton in the lanzarote hurdle, he has to have claims on that effort and is a grade dropper, he posted a 140 on that effort and that puts him well in with a chance in this today so 11-1 is a insult to his chances I feel.

The unexposed Un Bon p’tit Gars is open to all kind of improvement after his uttoexter effort but this is much tougher then that race and 9/2 is potentially skinny with a stone to find, even though he should have a chance of reproducing his best with improvement.

Selection – Romeo Americo (11/1)

14.15 Kempton - NOZIC 7/2

Ive tried to find a alternative to the old boy but I just cant seem to find one, Takeroc & Wester Ross are better handicapped but both of them are ones to keep in mind off for when the ground is riding on the good side of soft rather then still on the slow side of soft and Nozic sandown effort last time just says to me that he is the one to beat. Kie is entitled to improvement but on ratings needs around 13lbs of improvement at the weights, while Lucy's Legend who appeals the most of those potentially with improvement has a very poor recent effort to overcome. I think Nozic should be favourite.

16.00 Kempton - Baile Anrai 12/1

Been bang out of form, but with that has come a improved handicap mark that he can get serious off, the fact that he travelled well for quite some way over course and distance last time out he has been given a chance off a new mark to overcome that and run a big race for Ian Williams here. The ground drying is a bonus even though it isnt quick ground and at the weights he has the ability to trouble pete the feat. Alvarado & Circus of Dreams are both well handicapped but both need to refind their best form as well, the former looks the best bet out of the pair. Moleskin can go well here but maybe needs to shed a few more lbs before becoming a viable handicapping option at this level.

3.00 Exeter Graduation Chase Class 2 3M Heavy 5 runners

Bensalem – Best rated horse in the field but at the same time vulnerable to two less exposed chasers in the field. The long absence means we don’t have any idea what kind of health the horse is in but we know from past runnings by the horse that he stays and acts well under plenty of cut underfoot. I would see him as a 10yo holding on to his ability but would want to see him with a recent run to be backing him against some unexposed types or a big price and at 15/2 with just 5 runners he could be considered as a betting proposition. All his best form seems to be left handed over fences which has to be a concern but Exeter takes some getting and his stamina is a advantage.

Harry Tooper – One of the unexposed horses and favourite for this event at just 11/10 which I am finding a little on the short side. On terms of ratings he comes out 4th of 5, but of those high then him only one I would expect to be open to as much improvement on their form. This today is most probably his stiffest test in terms of stamina, but he did handle tough going well last time at Newbury where he won from an almost impossible position and needed every yard, the ground on his previous effort around here wasn’t as testing as it was today and he stuck his neck out well to land the spoils, the stiffer conditions could see him improve and can maybe overhaul those rated higher.

Highland Lodge  - Only a Novice but is now looking exposed over fences with 4 runs all to a similar level and you could say that is as good as he is over fences. The latest at Warwick just proved that a sharp turning track such as warwick doesn’t play to his strength so the return to amore stiff testing track should see him to better effect, his stamina is needed to win a event like this and you can make some claims for him, but at the weights today on ratings he comes out 5th best of 5 and looking at his chances over fences I wouldn’t want to guess that there is too much more to come. The ground and trip are ideal for him and his form is at least recent unlike two of his rivals so 4/1 on him I can see why it would be offered, but I wouldn’t want to be backing at that price in this event as others do appeal more.

Hawkes Point – Unexposed over fences and sure to improve further. The ground the trip and test of stamina should be very much to his liking and can give Champion trainer Paul Nichols a strong chance in this event today. The fact he gets 3lbs in weight is a bonus and he comes into this in form having won  under similar conditions around here last time out at the start of the year beating a decent rival in the process. At the weights that effort equates too every bit as good as Harry Tooper performance on ratings and he is proven stamina laden wise. Harry Tooper may well improve for the stiffer conditions but Hawkes point should as well having shown a liking for it and at 4/1 I feel holds more value against his rival.

Pearlysteps – At the weights his form is still inferior to that of Bensalem who he is just as exposed as over fences, but Pearlysteps is just making seasonal reappearance rather than overcoming a long term absence from racing, the fact he was pulled up on his last two starts of the season has to be considered as a concern, but he does need the ground deep to be at his best as he is a little bit on the slow side. Just like Bensalem he has something to prove, but at the same time he has been handed a tough task given that his proven form isn’t much better than the unexposed types despite coming 2nd on the ratings, both Hawkes Point & Harry Tooper should surpass his ratings and are more likely to run up to their best. The ground is the biggest positive for this horse and if the others all let themselves down he may get close, but I do feel he should be the outsider in this.

My Tissue – Hawkes Point 5/2, Harry Tooper 11/4, Bensalem 5/1, Highland Lodge 13/2, Pearlysteps 8/1

Value Selection – Hawkes Point 9/2 (VC)

4.10 Catterick - DIAMOND FRONTIER 10/1

Ran well here last time when 2nd to Kandari over fences and is tried over the same trip again here today with the hope that he can go one better then last time, he is at the foot of the weights and with a claimmer on board has a feather weight for the conditions underfoot, I am prepared to forgive him the run at Sedgefield in which he finished behind Simonside and can bounce back to form under conditions he is proven under, there are a couple of improvers in this event but if Diamond Frontier can rebuild on his latest effort I see no reason why he cant run a big race in this 9 runner affair.

Good luck, Topman. Always a cracking good read.

4.30 Ayr - Stormin Exit 6/1


Disappointed when sent off favorite here in the race Nuts And Bolts bolted up in but I feel is worth another try against that improver here today under Heavy Racing conditions. There is a chance that he suffered from his first run back over fences for Donald McCain in that race as he had previously ran at the start of January when 2nd to Pentiffic at Musselbrugh and it is no surprise that they are prepared to give it another ago against Nuts and bolts for whom should take all the beating with improvement to come. However Stormin Exit has recorded some decent efforts around Ayr for past trainer and looks to be a value play against the favorite in this at 6/1, he along with Rossini’s Dancer are the ones I see as winners of this if the favorite is there for the taking and wouldn’t surprise to see all 3 make up the places in this event.

The ground should hold no problems for the selection given 3 of his 4 best ratings have come on soft to heavy types of ground and he has a nice racing weight under Jason Maguire as well, add to that 2 of his 4 best rated runs since 2010 has come at this very venue it looks to me that connections have ear marked this track as the place for the horse to pay his way, both of those runs has come over 20 furlongs as well just adding weight behind the selection.

Story So Far.............

Selections    41
Winners    11
S/R    26.83%
Placed    21
S/R    51.22%
P/L    35.25
ROI    86%
Average win price    5.931818182
NR    1

A yesterday's shocker I will give the curse to :-

3.40 Musselbrugh - RUMBLE OF THUNDER 17/2 (VC)

The ground has stayed on the good side which will help this horse who ran with credit under soft conditions behind Swing Bowler back on new years day and should run with much conviction over course and distance this time around with the ground more favourable, that performance has been well franked by the winner going well in the betfair hurdle at the weekend so it was a competitve affair for Rumble of thunder to run with much credit in. The tight righe handed track is ideal with his best runnings seemingly coming at Musselbrugh and Market Rasen and there isnt much in this race in terms of quaility so the 17/2 on offer from victor is good value for chance. The top weight could well be hard to beat with more to come but at 5-2 agst rumble of thunder I am prepared to give it ago against. Fifth in the betting but hopefully first across the ine under Richie Mcgrath.

2.20 Haydock - CROSS KENNON 6/1(lads)

Kentford Grey Lady 160 (2/1)
Cross Kennon 156 (6/1)
Trustan Times 155 (9/4)
Across The Bay 148 (9/1)
Miss Milborne 143 (20/1)
Pettifour 142 (20/1)
Hada men 137 (9/1)

kentford grey lady is respected on the basis of her run in the cleave hurdle, but I am not sure that form will stack up as highly as the odds suggest and I wouldn't want any shorter then the 2/1 on offer. However 6-1 on Cross Kennon the 2011 winner of this event looks to hold value and can take this I feel with the ground very much in his favour. Ran well in this 12 months ago when finishing 2nd to Restless Harry who on his day is very capable and even though Trustan Times and Kentford Grey Lady are of similiar ability I will give Cross Kennon a go in this at 6-1 as he should be shorter and will give me a run for my money in this event.

2.40 Ascot - Vino Griego 4-1 (365)

Vino Griego 171 (4/1)
Ashkazar 156 (12/1)
Major Maralakey 149 (12/1)
Cappa Bleu 148 (6/1)
Brackloon High 148 (12/1)
Saint Are 148 (9/1)
Idarah 147 (16/1)
Problema Tic 144 (9/2)
The rainbow Hunter 144 (9/1)
Tatenen 143 (8/1)

Won well last time at Cheltenham and seems to have hit form as he was a clear cut winner that day and the 10lbs hike in the handcap still looks like he is well handicapped in comparison to this motley crew where only Saint Are & brackloon High can be considered as in some sort of form. The danger is David Pipe Ashkazar who on his day is a very talented horse and Timmy Murphy return has come in time for this horse and he should give the selection the most to do, but Vino Griego was mightly impressive last time and should be very hard to beat if he is in the same vein of form and the 2nd he recorded at this track behind the Mimick looked a much better race in terms of quaility then this event and 4-1 looks a fair price for him.

2.55 Haydock - Well Refreashed 6-1 (365)

Well Refreashed 176 (6-1)
Monbeg Dude 167 (6-1)
Silver By Nature 165 (20-1)
Rigadin De Beauchene 164 (11-2)
Viking Blond 163 (16-1)
Triggerman 160 (12-1)
Cannington Brook 158 (9-1)
teaforfree 158 (11-2)
Neptune Equester 157 (16-1)
Mac Aeda 155 (18-1)
Lackamon 154 (50-1)
Lively Baron 153 (33-1)
Trigger the light 153 (28-1)
Giles Cross 152 (8-1)

3 winners for me in the same trial handicap and When I saw Well Refreashed come out on top I wasnt quite expecting it to be by so much but he was mightly impressive when he landed the sussex national and can confirm his form with Rigadin De Beauchene who he beat at Lingfield before his next time out rout and even though worse off at the weights with that rival he crept in the race and settled the matter well inmy view and showed the next time out that he can work his way into the race and pick them off a little like monbeg dude will try and do in this event today. gary Moore Ihope will have a cross the card double here today. the return of Silver by nature is interesting as he loves it around here and at 20-1 looks overpriced but the younger progressive Well Refreshed is my choice in this event today with a feather weight.

3.35 Wincanton Khyber Kim 14/1 (VC)

Zarkander 165 (4/9)
Khyber Kim 164 (14/1)
Raya Star 161 (5/1)
Celestrial Halo 159 (9/1)
Balder Success 144 (33/1)
Monte Cavallo 139 (66/1)

Zarkander on the odds should win this and with 4lbs in hand over Raya Star in this he should win on all recent form, however I am going to give the returning Khyber Kim ago in this event to bounce back to the track and surprise a few people. I find it interesting that Nicky Henderson has this horse back after originally training him and the runner up in the 2010 Champion Hurdle has been off for a while but has form fresh and even though he is in his twilight days he can give Zarkander the most to think with the reciept of 8lbs in weight here today and Paddy Brennan is kept to ride him for the owner despite the change of stable and at 14/1 I think he is overpriced as a no hoper in this event and I am prepared too take the risk in this.


3.50 Ascot - FINIANS RAINBOW 10-3 (Blue cube)

Finian's Rainbow - 172 (10-3)
Cue Card - 170 (11-4)
Captain Chris - 165 (5-2)
Ghizao - 159 (11-1)
Somersby - 149 (5-1)
Pigeon Island - 138 (66-1)

The reigning champion Chase winner can continue the good recentform of Nicky Henderson in this event and land this event from Cue Card imo. He finished last of 4 on his reapperance behind Captain Chris, Fornonstop and Ghizao and was sent off a short price for that event, Captain Chris made the most of it that day when recieving 10lbs in weight and was awesome around here on that occassion before really running a brave race in the King George which he was given a hard race and even though he likes going right handed I feel will struggle to confirm the form with Nicky Henderson Finians' Rainbow on these terms if the champ has overcoem his problems. Cue Card is the danger if jumping more soundly then he did in the king george in which he did well to be so close. 10-3 is a decent price on Finians Rainbow I feel and I am a player. Somersby had his heart broken by Sprinter Sacre latest and ran well for a long way but was well beaten in the end and the fact Mad Moose re-took him up the hill suggested enough to me that his best days are behind him even though he loves this track if he was to win this then the likes of Finians Rainbow can have a line drawn through them for the coiming months I feel.

Hi topman3 your ROI% should read 186% as this expression isn't a profit fugure but and expression
of you return compared to your initial investment, hence the name return on investment. Very well done by the way and brilliant thread

3.30 market Rasen - SIMPLY NED 15-2 (Lads)

Simply Ned 144 (15-2)
Marodima 141 (16-1)
Stagecoach Pearl 140 (10-1)
Beyeh 138 (8-1)
Hollo Ladies 136 (8-1)
Snake Charmer 135 (50-1)
harry Hunt 133 (8-1)
Bar De Ligne 132 (6-1)
Thunderstorm 130 (7-4)
Tara Royal 118 (16-1)

I was going to back Marodima who looks well treated over hurdles and has run well twice over the smaller obstacles this winter and should give another bold sighter from the front. the favourite ThunderstormI feel is a take on at short price evn though he is improving I dont see his form from his 3 runs really stacking up as decent progressive form to overcome a 12lbs hike in the weights. The one I am going to give a go to is SIMPLY NED for the Nicky Richards yard that are in good form at present, this lightly raced hurdler has been crying out for a further trip and could give his trainer some thought for a handicap at the Cheltenham festival even though the trainer tends to steer clear of that event. the winner of this event won at both the festivals last term and Simply Ned could be a contender even though it is highly unlikely to happen again. At 15-2 I am prepared to give him ago in a market that looks like a price may well win the day against in my eyes a underpriced favourite.

Brilliant tipping and understanding of NH racing and Value, very impressed

Excellent again Top3man 4 of the 5 selections ran very well . Decent multiple bets well done

Simply Ned is A non runner.

3.30 Market Rasen - MARODIMA 14/1 (VC)

Still think he is overpriced and with a heart the size of this horse I do believe his odds are more on the reflection of his latest chase effort in which he was up against it when you look at William Wishes and Champion Court and the targets they were set. Marodima went quick that day and was beaten far enough out to not warrent too much of a look into the reason why he was beaten so far, however the horse has been given time off the track to recoup for future engagement as he is kept constantly on the go. Tom O'Brien is the man for the job on this horse and around the tight turns of Market Rasen he could well jump out and make all as his hurdle mark still looksvery much obtainable of a win. I wouldnt want to be a lay at a double figure price on this horse who is effective right handed as he has proven at Fontwell and Towcester. I am a player at 14-1 as I did seriously consider him at 16-1 last night in front of my now non-runner Simply Ned.

3.20 FFos Lass - FABULOUS FRED 11/1 (VC)

Fabulous Fred 133 (11/1)
Buffalo Bob 131 (4/1)
Bendant 129 (4/1)
Tough talkin Man 129 (25/1)
Seigneur Des bois 128 (5/1)
El Lobo 123 (12/1)
Timetoring 123 (33/1)
Smooth Classic 123 (5/1)
Roman Conquest 121 (10/1)

Fabulous Fred is my pick in this to deny Buffalo Bob who is sure to go well in this handicap having dropped down inthe weights since winning well at Chepstow this time last year. Faulous Fred looks like he has more to come over fences after his original run over fences at Sandown in which he finished 4th of 4 to Overturn that day over 16 furlongs and he was never really a threat to that rival who is one of the leading novices this season, he followed it up with a sub standard effort at Towcester on handicap chase debut in which he jumped left through out and still managed to get place. I thinkhe is better left handed then right handed and after being given a tough ask at Newbury in a novice handicap in which he was pulled up. I do feel ffos lass track should suit him and based on hurdles run at Haydock he should be thereabouts. The services of Richard Johnson is a bonus and I reckon he should be thereabouts.

Markadam (152) – At the weights and how unexposed he is over fences he is potentially the best horse in the race for this class 2 in name event and should have strong claims. What we know about the horse is that testing going shouldn’t be a problem given that that he handled over 25 Furlongs well here at the start of the month. The course is to his liking and the only concern is the fact that this is a tougher race then the one he won last time as he is effectively taking on higher class of rival if you take the fact that this is a class 2 event. The extra distance I don’t think will be too much of a concern for the horse and 6-1 on offer when I was working this race out looks value as he would be my favorite for this.

Emperor’s Choice (146) – Comes out as 2nd best with maybe a slightly more exposed profile on the book then Markadam over fences, but looks a solid alternative. Stepping into class 2 company today over fences, he has got more progression to come over fences one would imagine and the ground is certainly to his liking. The further he goes in terms of stamina the better he seems with the step up in trip at Newbury and Taunton bringing him along nicely, the tougher test of stamina today should improve him more it seems and he rates as a solid alternative to Markadam but at 7-2 the bookies aren’t leaving anything to chance in this.

My Boy Paddy (143) – Looks a solid candidate for this as he is proven over course and distance under testing conditions and is well handicapped for this event today which looks like it has been on the agenda since last season. The fact he is effective in this class is another bonus and you start to see why he was priced up as 13/2 for this event. There isn’t much in the way of negatives if you can forgive the effort last time and he should be thereabouts at the finish.

Arbor Supreme (140) – Poor in Ireland latest but ran well at Exeter and Chepstow in the Welsh national the time before. Has graded form to his name but that was when with Willie Mullins and was some 12 runs ago. Well handicapped if ever re-finding his form it has to be a concern that he took a drop to 110 in the handicap before finding his feet again at Exeter. Likes this type of ground and has proven stamina that is needed Should give a stern account of himself in this and is another that could well win if the top 2 don’t improve as expected. 9-1 overnight looks a fair price for him given his unsure background as to what horse will turn up, but you can’t blame the bookies for not wanting to be too generous with his odds.

Vamizi (136) – Fully exposed and know what we are likely to get, he is vulnerable too better weighted rivals in arbor supreme and My Boy Paddy on what they have achieved and too two unexposed chasers in Markadam and Emperor’s Choice in this. Effective in this class even though his best form does come when dropped down a level or two.  Ground trip course and test of stamina are all in his favor, but while he is solid in what you know what to expect, he is likely to struggle against younger more progressive rival in not a better handicapped rival so 15/2 is not unexpected and most probably about right even though I would want more 8 or 9/1 he wins.

Sydney Paget (136) – Another that is unexposed and entitled to improve but off top weight I feel he has it all to do at the weights today so the 10-3 priced last night I have found way too short to consider. Entitled to improve I feel he needs to find quite a bit on form to give weight away to this lot. The stiffer test will no doubt bring out more improvement as he has improved when upped to these distances so far in his chase career and the run at Towcester does give you the feeling he needs this sort of test. Another upped in class over fences he has a tough task at the weights but does stay so if others fail he may well be the one to pick up the prize but with more needed I don’t see 10-3 as value.

McMurrough (134) – Relatively unexposed over fences and could have more to come but needs to build on runs over 2.5 Miles at Wetherby and Newcastle and overcome a poor effort latest. The extra trip I am unsure will bring out the improvement required and he looks one for another day back on a left handed track over 2.5M and no surprise to see him in double figures over night.

You Know Yourself (133) – Heavily tried chaser who has many miles on the clock and continues to run well despite getting no help from the handicapper. Effective over course and enjoys these types of trip, he has the ground in his favor and recent form to call upon. Ran well in this class before but looks up against it at the weights given his mark and others are more preferred even though he does stay well I think slightly a less test of stamina will see him in better light.

Roseneath (131) – effective around here but needs a lot to under achieve to have a say but can be capable on his day, I’d be surprised if he was to come home in front even though lowly weighted, this is a class too high for him.

Classic Cut (125) – been too long since he showed any form and needs to bounce back to form he showed a couple of years back. This looks a tough ask even if he was inform so no surprise to see him high in the betting.

Verdict – I decided to await the market to form better and I am very surprised to see Markadam price increase from the 6-1 on offer last night, I am a player at best priced 10-1 in this as his chance looks much better than his odds suggest. Obvious danger is the now priced fav Emperor’s Choice, while My Boy Paddy and Arbor Supreme are others noted too have a decent chance
Selection – MARKADAM 10/1

3.40 Carlisle

Cell 1

Cell 2

Selections    50
Winners    13
S/R    26.00%
Placed    24
S/R    48.00%
P/L    38.25
ROI    177%
Average win price    5.788461538
NR    1

Cell 3

Cell 4

3.40 Taunton - HOME RUN 5/1

Looks to hold a solid chance around this right handed track of Taunton under tough going, he looks the value play against the unexposed favorite who should take all the beating, but in my view has something to prove on the ground, therefore Home run who has progressed this season can get back to winning ways.

3.15  Wetherby - NO SECRETS 15/8

I think this horse won with  abit to spare last time out and even though it is the other way around at Wetherby he has too much in his favor to be beaten by any of these and Tom Scudermore can steer him to a easy victory I feel around this track. The biggest fear may well be the top weight Douglas Julian who is overpriced. Pipe double for me today

2.50 Doncaster - CORKAGE 7/1

I liked both Marufo & Monkerty Tunkerty for this, but at the price I have opted for Corkage who loves Doncaster ran well on this card 12 months ago and the drying ground is a big bonus. He is effective over todays trip and gets on well with his pilot, I can forgive the last run here on soft ground and the time before he was only just beaten off in a close finish, certain he will run a decent race and looks handicapped to go well against these. The two already mentioned and Aurora's Encore are dangers while Always Waning run will be interesting with Aintree not too far off.

[b]4.50 Ayr -  PREDATEUR 6/1/b]

This may well be between Houston Dynamo, Kudu Country and Kealigolane if the betting is anything to go by, but I have reservations about the ground for Houston  Dynamo and Kudu Country I feel could possiablly be better under less testing conditions underfoot and wouldnt surprise me to find one too good. Keligolane looks the most solid out of the 3 and should be thereabouts at the finish with much in favor and is going the right way after victory last time out at Carlisle, However I like the look of Predateur who cantbe harshly judged on his return run over hurdles to which he was always going to need the run. Today he has 7lbs taken off his back meaning that he has a feather weight too carry today and that could be definning for him as he is well handicapped. The ground and trip isnt s problem for him and the course should be effective for him. 6/1 I feel is a fair price to be getting involved in to find out that he still retains his chase ability.

3.50 Warwick - CHARINGWORTH 16/1

This market is made up based on the French import of David Pipe and that I feel has created enough vaule throughout the handicap. Little Josh caught my eye with this track looking like it would suit, but the combination of the ground not being ideal for him and having to concede weight put pay to his chances I feel. Golden Chieftain is another who would prefer better ground but is ideally placed for this, I would imagine he would go very well in this today for the Tizzards. Escourtman went well here last time out but this looks as tough and not sure everything is in his favor either. Frisco Depot has to jump better but is talented in this class of race, I would say with the ground in his favor he looks a solid option. David Pipe 2nd string Isnt best on the ground. Chance Du Roy needs a stiffer test of stamina, so in all the main players look to have questions to answer. Charingworth was unlucky at Ayr last time out and needs to be produced right, The change of jockey suggest that Ferdy Murphy is hoping to make amends in this and the ground is ideal around a left handed track, this course might be a bit on the sharp side for him, but the extra 0.5F looks like it will suit him and providing he doesnt get too far behind he should pick them off and 16-1 looks a big price

3.20 Chepstow - BALLYGARVY 13/2

Oh Crick will run a big race in his defence of this race and the refitting of the blinkers could well have him as bolting up in this handicap as he is very well weighted and suited to the conditions of todays race and only has 11 stone to carry, the Philip Hobbs horse is improving and while his form all comes at Lingfield I feel the shorter trip over this more testing track could well see him holding his form away from that track, he looks the best alternative other then renard who is best priced at 5-1, but while Venetia Williams yard are in crackking form at the moment, the hobbs horse has a low weight and a more proressive profile so at 13-2 Is my choice

3.40 Kempton - SAME DIFFERENCE 7/1

I like the look of the novice from the Nigel Twiston-davies yard who have won this race in the past. The fact the ground has dried out is a bog advanatage for this unexposed chaser whowill handle the ground well. The only concern is the lack of track form on this type of speed track as his galloping track at Ffos lass and Newbury suggested that maybe the sharper Kempton track will suit, but this track isnt the easiest to get a breather into the horse and those pieces of form will suit him, he has shown at leicester that the right handed track holds no fear for jumping righ handed and even though the likes of wyck hill are more interesting I feel Same Difference Novice form isnt too shabby either.

Nice winner today.

3.45 Fontwell - DARK LOVER 7/4

Short price but should be well suited to this tight right handed 20F contest today with Brampour and the returning the Bengo the biggest dangers in my view. The reason Ididnt side with Brampour is the fact that the horse seems to perform much better left handed then right handed even though he has contested some decent efforts going this way round and Bengo may well need better ground before we see the best of him upon his long absence from the track. Dark Lover ran on well in the keenly contested Betfair Hurdle and looked like he needed further that day in the conditions, he has form around cheltenham in heavy conditions in which he stayed on nicely and that points to the fact he will stay this sharpish 2.5M well and I feel he is the best chance of the trio from Paul Nichols as Prospect Wells in my opinion has alot to prove and isnt as classy as this progressive runner from the yard.

Fontwell is Left Handed

koikeeper
24 Feb 13 13:04
Joined:  02 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 14,713 | Blogger: koikeeper's blog
Fontwell is Left Handed

Top3man is in profit Koikeeper thus no money has left his or his supporters hands...

Koikeeper you are indeed correct, the chase track at Fontwell is right handed and as I prefer to play chases I seem to have forgot that the track is in fact left handed.

3.30 Ludlow

Polieto comes into this chase race on top of his game having recorded his jt best effort last time out when handling the conditions well at Wincanton over 21 furlongs to win by 8L over Minarrow and his task is now much harder with 8 of these better handicapped on ratings, but while 7 of those need to refind their form Polieto comes into the race very much in form but given his exposed profile it is unlikely that he will record another victory in this today so the 7-2 on offer tonight arent too appealing.

Buck Muligan is the other one that comes into this handicap off the back of a break away from the track and he is really a model of consistencey in and around the class 2 & 3 schene, but like Polietio he has others that are better weighted but given his profile it wouldnt be a surprise to see him run another decent race today even though this is maybe as far as he would ideally want with best chase form over a slightly shorter trip. The Chazer won at Doncaster the time before last but is the worse handicapped horse in the race on ratings and likely too find times alot more tough even though he has a progressive profile so could also improve on his form, however this looks a trip too far and he is also passed over.

Ballyoliver was progressing earlier in the season after finally getting to grips with chasing and he will be staying on well as he looks like he has plenty of stamina on his side, however he was very poor last time at Leicester and with drying ground this may well be too sharp for him. Grove Pride won a novice event at Exeter which is his only real piece of chase form as he has struggled since and could have more to come on better ground and this test of stamina should be ideal for him so a bounce back to form could well be on the cards. Pearlysteps is a consistent chaser if you look through his form, however he has tailed off even though he did perform with credit last time out at Exeter behind Harry Topper and I do feel stiffer conditions would be better for him. Cootehill has been out of form for too long now but better ground will help him I feel but he is very exposed and even though well handicapped he is very exposed now and unlikely to be able to put up a performance quite good enough in this. Top Weighted Zarrafakt holds a chance if refinding his form and a ease in class is likely too help him so he should be thereabouts but the concession of weight too REQUINN I feel could be tough as the Dartnell runner looks very well handicapped near the foot of the handicap and with drying ground over 3M on a sharp track such as Ludlow could well be his optimum conditions as it wasnt that long ago he was running with so much zest when falling over 3M at Ascot in soft conditions, that day he was tired when falling, but he wouldnt have been beaten too far that day to suggest that his stamina didnt last the trip out and that was 11lbs higher in the weights. The stable has had some problems but they do seem to be pass that now and at best priced 12-1 with paddy Power I am prepared to give it ago as he looks very well handicapped and hasnt been burdened with too many runs this season which given the ground conditions this winter could well be a blessing.

Selection - REQUIN 12/1

2.55 SEW ON TARGET 3/1

Done me a favor at Chepstow earlier in the year and then was faced with some tough assignments that he still ran well including the last run at Warwick in which he was just beaten by some talented horses at the top end of the scale. A return to this level and a stiffer test of stamina should see him go well against these and his progressive profile should see him have the beating of Silver Roque who looks the biggest danger. Both Ballywatt and heez a cracker have claims but I feel Sew on Target is just the classier of the trio and thats why I can see him being favourite for this event.

3.50 BRAVE SPARTCUS 5/2 (VC)

Not the classiest of races and even though Brave Spartcus best form seems to come at Catterick I do feel he should be well suited to this test of stamina today and comes into this race in food form, quite a few of these need to refind their feet as to speak and maybe Civil Unrest is the biggest danger, but the overall profile of Brave Spartcus suggest he is progressing nicely and ran very well in defeat last time when not given the run of the race.

2.55 CORKAGE 12/1

Im going for the course specialist to take the grimthorpe tomorrow for the Reverley team who also saddle Night In Milan in this event, however I believe Corkage who finished close up behind his stable mate in a well advertised form race for this in december, that day Corkage travelled well into the straight and came wide and really kept sticking his neck out. I backed him in a vets race around here last month and he wasnt beaten far that day too suggest that he cant win off a mark such as this, I do feel the extra 2F on ground as quick as this wont be any problem and he is sure to still be pitching in their at the finish and if it does come down too a battle to the line you know this boy will keep sticking his neck out. Mr Moonshine form behind Cape Tribulation is well advertised form with that rival on his way to the Gold cup on friday week and ballyoliver franked that form the other day. Last seasons winner of this race Ikorodu Road is another I considered having backed him at Leicester and he was very much thought off for this, however Corkage I feel can not be lightly discounnted and is my idea of a bet at 12-1.

4.55 AYR - THE MAGIC BISHOP 7/1 (PP)

Papa Caruso - 134 (9-2)
The Magic Bishop - 134 (7-1)
Premier Sagas - 132 (9-1)
Rosssini'S Dancer - 132 (9-1)
William Money - 130 (4-1)
What Happens Next - 129 (IMP) (3-1)
Storming Gale - 129 (8-1)

The Jefferson Horse The Magic Bishop is my choice in this event at 6-1 as he ran well at this track two runs back when finishing 2nd to Tipsy Diva that day and I feel the better ground underfoot then that day will help him this time, and this looks like a good chance for him to win off his highest mark as a chaser as he is still only 8yo and should be entering into his peak as a chaser. Papa Cruso is a danger and was backed off the boards last time out, the Sue Smith charge recieves weight alround. Premier Sagas could bounceback and made appeal, but hedoes need to refindhis form while What happens next is improving and maybe the dropback can see him return to that progression.

2.50 Sandown - Coolbeg 9/2 (PP)

Coolbeg - 133 (9/2)
Olympian Boy -131 (5/2)
Uptothemark - 128 (5/1)
Christopher Wren - 127 (7/1)
Greywell Boy - 126 (7/2)
Free World - 123 (14/1)

I am going to give the Ex-Tom George Chaser Coolbeg ago in this who made a pleasing start for new yard in the same leicester race he won 12 months earlier. The weight he recieves I have him out on top in this handicap and the hope is that he is back in the groove as he isnt over burden with miles on the clock. Olympian Boy is a danger, while Christopher Wren if he could come on in the jumping stakes would be a big danger, while Uptothemark shouldn't be too far away.

Day 1 of cheltenham and 2 races I have rated

2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Knockara Beau - 207 (16-1)
Tour des Champs - 204 (28-1)
Midnight Chase - 203 (25-1)
Our Mick - 201 (6-1)
Nadiya De La vega - 200 (15-1)
The Package 193 (14-1)
Merry King 192 (6-1)
Monkerty Tunkerty 191 (16-1)
Golden Chieftain 189 (40-1)
Jadanli 187 (40-1)
Fruity O'Rooney 186 (10-1)
Tenor Neverians 186 (40-1)
Pete The Feat 185 (33-1)
Loch Ba 184 (12-1)
Hey Big Spender 183 (33-1)
Summery Justice 180 (50-1)
Planet of Sound 180 (33-1)
Nuts N Bolts 178 (33-1)
Tullamore Dew 177 (33-1)
Poole Master 177 (25-1)
Cloudy Too 172 (20-1)
White star Line 171 (14-1)
Quartz De Thaix 171 (50-1)
Quantitveesing 161 (25-1)

Differcult big field handicap in which Knockara Beau comes out on top having been kept too hurdles in recent races to protect his handicap mark. 6th in the Gold cup last season he finds himself well handicapped for this event and showed himself in good heart at the trials meeting in the Cleeve Hurdle in which Paddy Brennan stole a march on his rivals and from the foot of the hill looked to be going as well as anything in the race as he kicked on again. The conditions underfoot shouldnt hold any problems for him with soft ground forecasted for the whole meeting and he will certainly get the trip which others arent assured to do so. Only 16-1 isnt too surprising given his mark of 142 and with 11 stone 1lbs too carry he isnt overburdened with weight for this handicap and he is one of my choices for this handicap, the other choice is TOUR DES CHAMPS at 28-1 who is over priced for this as he is weighted too go well and looks to still be improving, his jumping is a little hit and miss and hopefully he can have a clean round as he has talent and looks a promising novice. Midnight chase and Our Mick both have claims as both are effective around here, the former needs to refind his form and takes a drop into handicap company which could reignite him, while Our Mick was going well here last time when making a uncharchtristic error.

Selection - TOUR DES CHAMPS 28/1 & KNOCKARA BEAU 16/1

3.20 Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly 229 (9/4)
Zarkander 222 (7/2)
Rock On Ruby 222 (9/2)
Binocular 204 (9/1)
Cinders & ashes 201 (14/1)
Countrywide Flame 201 (16/1)
Grandouet 198 (8/1)
Khyber Kim 183 (50/1)
Balder Success 177 (100/1)

This years race doesnt look as good as it was first thought and basically on my ratings the first four spaces could well be 4 of the first 5 home12 months ago as this season 2nd season hurdlers dont look anything out of the ordinary with the absence of Darlan who had a fatal fall last month. The market looks to have this sewn up with the top 3 all the first 3 in the market and Hurrican Fly comes out on top as his only blip in recent years came in this race 12 months ago when Willie Mullins believes his charge was not on the top of his game. Zarkander also was believed to not beat his best 12 months ago and Paul Nichols believes his charge has improved and I would go with that as well as he could well be the biggest danger to the Fly. Last seasons winner ROCK ON RUBY is my choice however as he had a fortunate win latest that will have donehis confidence a world of good and in the international hurdle he was said to have blown up when looking fall of running agaisnt Zarkander and Grandouet and a better show is likely.

With the ground on the soft side he certainly will be the horse digging in at the finish and may just get the better of his ex-stablemate Zarkander for his new trainer Harry Fry who did the trainning for Paul Nichols last season. Grandouet is far more exposed then people give him credit for and I have concerns on him as he is fragile having only meet the race course once since his injury put paid to his good chance 12 months ago after he put up his best winning the International hurdle from Overturn, the fact he comes out quite low on my ratings means that I dont see 8-1 as decent value. Cinders and Ashes and Countrywide flame are closely matched and the latter has come out on top twice this season and even though the ground is similair to those meetings, this track should help cinders and ashes and he could well be the best of last seasons novices.

Selection - ROCK ON RUBY 9/2

Trends for the two cheltenham races worked out on key trends and put into a % score

Summery Justice 267%
White Star Line 247%
Tour Des champs 239%
Monkerty Tunkerty 239%
Poole Master 233%
Tenor Niverais 226%
Loch Ba 226%
Pete the feat 220%
cloudy too 219%
merry king 219%
Our Mick 206%
Nuts n bolts 206%
Golden chieftain 201%
Tullamore dew 187%
Quartz de thaix 181%
Fruity o'rooney 173%
Quantitveesing 167%
Nediya da le vega 153%
Jadali 147%
Midnight chase 134%
The package 127%
Knockara beau 120%
Hey big spender 113%
Planet of sound 101%

slightly concerned that trends suggest knockara beau has no chance and midnight chase as well, tour des champs however does have a decent chance and the other that figure quite high is monkerty tunkerty who i rate as having a good chance also meets the trends of this race.

Zarkander 267%
Hurricane Fly 233%
Rock on Ruby 233%
Cinders & Ashes 200%
Grandouet 200%
Countrywide Flame 166%
Binocular 146%
Khyber Kim 120%
Balder success 74%

Zarkander fits the profile of past winners who are given a second shot at the prize, the most interesting trend is that 12 of the last 15 winners won there previous hurdle race before coming into this contest and that left just 3 in Zarkander, Hurricane Fly and Rock On Ruby, so here is the hope that I have nailed it on ratings and got the value in Rock on ruby.

CHAMPION CHASE - TRENDS TO NARROW DOWN TH FIELD

Sprinter Sacre (3/10) - No surprise to see him fit the trends as this unbeaten chaser has all the quailities of a champion chaser in his 2nd season over fences and should take all the beating. His Ratings suggest that he is peaking and that should see him very hard to beat given that no other runner has recorded a 178 in this field and only Moscow Flyer & Master minded in their pomp put up a better rating then that in this event in the last 10 years. The course holds no fear for this horse who looks a natural around here with his large stride and he enjoys a stiff finishing track so the harder they go in front the more to his liking it should be.

Tataniano (100-1) - Fits the trends as a winner, but even though he was once a decent horse for Paul Nichols, his transfer to The Richard Rowe yard suggest he has had problems and isnt the same perform, hence his price and even at his best he wouldnt be good enough with 167 back in october 2011 being his best performance. The more recent form is somewhat short of that.

Sizing Europe (5/1) - the Only forseeable danger in this field of seven as he is a talented chaser on his day and still retains his old zest for racing at 11yo, be no surprise to see him try and match strides with Sprinter Sacre and upto maybe two out he might get that rival too pull out the stops but that is most probably it as his 176 was back in 2011 in this race and Sprinter Sacre has already surpassed that rating and is on a upwards curve, whilst Sizing Europe is fully exposed. Each-way Chance.

Selection - Sprinter Sacre 3/10

CORAL CUP -TRENDS TO NARROW DOWN THE FIELD

I have it down too just 9 runners after the trends are taken into account and straight away their is a trio of runners for Nicky Henderson that catch the eye in Tour D'Argent, Cash and go and Ericht for this and looking at the jockey bookings I would have imagined Barry had the choice of Tour D'Argent or Cash and go and it is interesting that he chooses Cash and Go rather then the returning too hurdles Tour D'Argent who has the riding skills of David Bass (no longer a claimmer). Looking at both these two, bith Cash and Go and Tour D'argent has to prove their stamina over this trip, however Cash & Go does look the more likely stayer so Tour D'Argent is discounnted on the jockey bases and the fact my stamina key suggest Cash & Go will improve for the further trip.

Ericht is eye catching with a 10lbs claimmer deployed by Nickey Henderson that gives this talented hurdler a feather weight for this contest and that in these types of races is a positive. The fact this is his first run at Cheltenham since running 3rd to Steps to freedom is also interesting as he made a favourable impression that day and as he is on a role it would be no surprise to see him involved in the finish having shown he stays this far albeit on a much speedy test of stamina last time out, he rates as a shortlisted contender.

Wyse Hill Teabags could go well in this but I expect his stamina to just fade up the hill, where as master of the sea will appericate every last inch of this stamina test as he is one that gruels it out, my fear with him is that one will have too much speed in the finish under these better conditions then he has progressed under. Black thunder is sure to go well and looks tailored for this eventby champion trainer Paul Nichols and is another that should be thereabouts if running his race. Medinas may have won his race when winning the welsh county hurdle at Ffos lass, but him and Buck Magic both should be lasting out up the hill in this. Irish Raider Un beau Matin could well be the answer to this test of stamina as he fits the profile and Gigginstown stud won this event a few years back with Carlito Brigante and looks to have laid this gelding out for this race, he stays the trip and should get every assistance from the saddle from Davy Russell and at 16-1 with VC is my bet with Ericht at the same price with the same firm.

Ericht 16/1& Un Beau Matin 16/1

4.00 Plumpton - RONALDO DES MOTTES (16/1 LADS & 365)

David Pipe is double handed in this handicap and has been done a favor by the inclusion of Balder Success in this handicap. This means that Ronaldo Des Mottes only has alight weight to carry thanks to Tom Bellamy Claim and looks very well handicapped for this handicap and a success connections will have been hoping for to fund the trainning of this horse as his prize money has been non-existent in the last few seasons. A no shower in the county hurdle in which he wasnt given a hard time when left with no chance, and thanks to that the assesor has dropped him down 4lbs in the handicap.

Caught the eye at Sandown when being held together to finish 4th to lord of the house that day and raised a few eyebrows on the ride, but it was his first run for 600+ days so no surprise to see him looked after. The better conditions today should help his chances as Good to soft ground is forecasted and there should be no excuses for him today. The 16-1 on offer has to be backed in my opinion as its a test of stamina he should be ideally suited too. Constant contact is a danger at the weights, while act of kalanisi return too hurdles should be invovled. Balder Success is a obvious danger given his top level form, while Court minstrel on handicap debut could well improve and gives it a interesting edge to the race given that his best has come under a much stiffer track so far. Home run, Specialagent alfie, Darkestbeforedawn and Red Inca all should enjoy the conditions but need to find improvement at the weights.

Stone Light & Hi Note looks types to excel over further under these ground conditions.

14.30 AINTREE

Silvinaco Conti - 170.5 - Class asct who is effective under this test of stamina. The least amount of runs under code and only has to overcome the fall last time at cheltenham in which his main rivals from that day have side stepped this.

The Giant Bolster - 167.16 - Most exposed chaser in the race and ran well in the Gold Cup last time out finishing just outside the placings. Not quite top class but could well get involved, even though a tougher test of stamina most probably would see him to better light

First Liutenant - 166.2 - Found ryanair maybe a little too sharp but at same time the gold cup trip may have told on his stamina. Should be thereabouts and maybe is the chief danger

Menorah - 165.5 - Is about his level over fences and a bit hit and miss. This is going to truely test his stamina at this level and needs to prove he stays well enough, shouldnt be able to trouble the fav.

Cape Tribulation 163 - Ran ok in the Gold Cup, but that would have been more his test then this I feel as he looks a stout stayer and would need a break neck gallop to come into his own in this I would imagine

Quito De La Roque - 162 - Softer ground would have helped his chances around here, but has got course form and did bounce back to some form last time out, was dissapointing before that.

Verdict - all seem to have had plenty of chase runs and nothing really standsout as a improver so SILVINACO CONTI should find this a easy win and evens looks a fairly decent reflection on his chance with everything in his favor.

3.05 AIntree hurdle

Countrywide flame - 166 - Should stay the trip and based on champion hurdle 3rd has a live chance. not over burdened with tries he could well be the one too beat.

Oscar Whisky - 165.36 - Proven in this race, but at same time more exposed then many of his rivals. Should be thereabouts providing that the world hurdle run can be forgiven and nothing is wrong with him, softer ground would have been ideal.

Grandouet - 162 - fell in champion hurdle and needs to prove stamina. Strong traveller should be swinging but will he find anything, Gerghaty jumped ship.

Thousand Stars - 161.69 - Best over this trip IMO and should run his usual solid race, many miles on the clock and hard to fathom him as the winner, place chance at best

Zarkander - 161.66 - £rd season over hurdles, but not many miles on clock, fell in this last year and shapes like trip will suit but has to prove he is a genuine grade 1 hurdler at senior level still in my mind.

The NEw One - 156 - needs to improve on ratings but as a novice he is the least exposed. big win latest and eye catching turn of foot. not easily discounnted.

Verdict - Main players in which Countrywide flame could be the one to beat, the new one is interesting while Oscar Whisky is the proven horse. Cant have Grandouet today, I am going to go for OSCAR WHISKY as 6-1 is a insult