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Sprinter Sacre rated 170 beat Kumbushwar rated 140 in todays Tingle Creek. Sanctuaire rated 167 ran no sort of race and was beaten 20L yet many are hailing SS the greatest horse ever wtf. SS was the only Grade 1 winner in the line up and was 4/11 favorite. great horse he may turn out to be but beating Cue Card 7L and beating 140 rated horses in his other races i feel its far to early to call him The Greatest. maybe after he has won 3 Queen Mothers and 12 G1s he will deserve greatness but as of now its to early
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Replies: 64
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ROFFL
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I know where sonny is coming from but in this case I think the hype is warranted. Having seen thousands of races, I'm pretty sure I know when I'm watching something special. It's that intangible factor that impresses the eye that people get drawn in by - and I'm one of them.
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Don't know where you got your Ratings from - But they are marginallu INcorrect.
Sprinter Scare = 169 Kumbeshwar = 143 (highest ever, previously 145) Sanctuaire = 166 Idrah = 145 Using - Kumbeshwar's 145 - gives 160 for Sprinter Sacre - +PLUS, whatever you wish to add on for the ease of success. Using Idarah' 145 - gives 175 for Sprinter Sacre - + PLUS, whatever ..... BUT... - Kumbeshwar would have to be put up to an unprecedented 160. |
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How he rates against other years 2 milers is a matter of opinion, but it is hard to think of a current 2 mile chaser capable of beating him getting 2 stone in weight. Cue Card is probably the second best in training at the moment.
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If you dont see a star in this lovely horse then you are following the wrong sport
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Yes the BHA rates Cue Card 165 and he will surely rise to a higher mark than that when given the chance, yet SS beat him 7 lengths on the bridle so I think we can safely say the 169 for SS is an underestimation
but for sure today's race poses handicapping questions: it all depends on which horses you decide ran to a reliable mark. If you choose Idarah and His Excellency then SS 175 is ok but then you have to believe Kumbeshwar ran to 160 ish I believe speed ratings will prove more reliable in this case |
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For me Sanctuair "points its toe" so wouldent want that ground..............
no betting interest bytheway |
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^ You will have the SAME problem with 'SPEED Ratings'
Previoius best TOPSPEED Ratings - merely as an example ... Sprinter Sacre = 165 Kumbeshwar = 135 Sanctuaire = 150 Idarah = 132 His Excellency 108 ... finished only Half a length behind Idarah So, AGAIN - a SUPER 'SPEED Rating' for Sprinter Sacre of, say, 180- would have ... Kumbeshwar returning a NEW 'SPEED Rating' - some 30 lbs BETTER thann ever achieved previously ... Sanctuaire - running 11 lbs ABOVE his previous best of 151 - and ... Idarah - 'improving' 18 lbs' - whilst beaten 30 lengths. - and HIS EXCELLENCY 'improving' 42 lbs from 108 to 150. ... and add another 6 lbs - if, like many 'Speed believers' - you don't believe in Weight-for-Age. Simply NOT ON.  |
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You will drive yourself mad trying to justify literal ratings (not that most on here need any assistance).
The facts are;two horses tried to win.One destroyed the other and the places were4 irrelevant for handicapping purposes. |
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sprinters a cert
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I was thinking more of the comparative time with Captain Conan who ran 6 seconds slower and carried 5 lbs more over the same C&D on the same day
what did he run to then? |
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I DID add a
SMILEY - racingstar. |
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That's 'digging an even deeper hole' - judorick
Best previous CHASE Topspeed Ratings for that race. Captain Conan = 114 Hinterland = 81 Third Intention = 107 Coincidentally - Captain Conan and Hinterland had previous TOPSPEED Hurdle Ratings of 129 and 126 - and were separated by just over the same 3 lengths difference. 6 seconds = 30lbs - so they say. |
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I'm not talking about previous ratings, I'm talking about today's times - they will get a going correction for the chase course and it will become fairly apparent
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Sanctuaire rated 167
Handicapper should be sent back to school for that classic. That makes him PF Nicholls greatest ever novice PMSL  |
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No ..................caus some simply cant go in the mud..........
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Spot on Glossy imo. Beautifully put.
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RP have given Sprinter Sacre 180 with Kumbeshwar 161..........
That is beyond a f**king joke. Kumbeshwar=161? |
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Joe,
Most form publications are falling over themselves to try and justify a rating the horse is clearly worth. |
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that remains to be seen diamond joe, all form has to be tested before we can judge it, there were two 145 horses 15 lengths behind Kumbeshwar... did they both run 15lbs below form?
who knows? have to see how they run in the future |
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Thats true. The problem with RP, Timeform ratings are when they rate races through what they think the winner is capable of(GUESSING)
Sprinter Sacre was sublime today but cannot justify a 180 rating on this basis. He could well be capable of it, but has to actually do it. IMHO if you take Kumbeshwars of 143 and being kind say he has improved 6-8 ilbs, it puts him on 149-151 and Sprinter Sacre on IMHO you HAVE to rate the race through Kumbeshwar. He is exposed, has run up to his figure recently and was the ONLY horse (Winner apart) finishing the race well. |
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Sprinter Sacre on 171ish with a MASSIVE +
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that would make Captain Conan about 136 based on the times and weights carried which looks low for a Grade 1 chase even if Hinterland really does drag it down (I have CC 36lbs lower than SS on todays times). I would put CC nearer 145 making SS 181
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135 even CC if SS 171
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well i haven't been around in the game as long as some of you but my instinct is that this horse is different gravy in this division at present.
i think he'll beat whatever is put in front of him and every time the opposition will be crabbed rather than recognizing an exceptional athlete. we've been here before with so many recent horses i've thought are awesome. is the cue card form rubbish now as well in its last race? |
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no, you are right - different gravy indeed
how much different is the only question... and then how does that compare to other greats and Cue Card will only further enhance the form, I think he will end up mid to high 170s easily this season |
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that's fair enough, i just know that if SS keeps winning in facile fashion, many will rubbish what its beat rather than thinking it just could be an exceptional horse with a hell of a cruising speed.
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How can you use Captain Conans Time to rate SS? 2 Different races run at different paces.
How are you calculating? |
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Exactly DJQ. You'll drive yourself insane (and probably penniless) trying to compare horses running in different races based on timings.
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Agreed, I use Speed figures and ratings but it is a very rough way of judging abilities.
My issue is with RP and Timeform rating races on what they "Predict" the winner is capable of rather than what it has ACTUALLY achieved in this one specific race |
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'Thats true. The problem with RP, Timeform ratings are when they rate races through what they think the winner is capable of(GUESSING)
Sprinter Sacre was sublime today but cannot justify a 180 rating on this basis. He could well be capable of it, but has to actually do it'. cannot argue with that at this stage diamond joe.. |
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Good thread. Im very interested in how people rate races (and how they use them to judge handicaps)
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He looked ok going right handed,but I became obsessed looking at his legs and action.
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they ran the same C&D on the same day on the same going so the performances are directly comparable
6 seconds is about 30lbs at 2 miles trip and SS carried 6lbs more therefore he ran approx 36lbs higher than Captain Conan |
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Far too simplistic a view IMO.
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nobbly knees?
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that's YOUR opinion
but that is exactly how Topspeed will work out the ratings. As all the chases will have the same going correction because they were all run on the same going then the times are directly comparable suggest you write to Dave Edwards at the Racing Post and ask him to explain it |
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Of course it's my opinion, it's what forums such as this are founded upon.
...and my opinion is why I pay little attention to Topspeed ratings on the whole. |
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Speed ratings are useful but using them alone is like using hand gun to open a chestnut. So many variables. Whether the horse is exposed, how rating was achieved, when it was achieved, specific horse characteristics (Dog, Pig, Horse etc...)
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