Sprinter Sacre beat a 140 rated horse today

ROFFL

I know where sonny is coming from but in this case I think the hype is warranted. Having seen thousands of races, I'm pretty sure I know when I'm watching something special. It's that intangible factor that impresses the eye that people get drawn in by - and I'm one of them.

Don't know where you got your Ratings from - But they are marginallu INcorrect.

Sprinter Scare = 169
Kumbeshwar = 143 (highest ever, previously 145)
Sanctuaire = 166
Idrah = 145

Using - Kumbeshwar's  145 - gives 160 for Sprinter Sacre - +PLUS, whatever you wish to add on for the ease of success.

Using Idarah' 145 - gives 175 for Sprinter Sacre - + PLUS, whatever ..... BUT...

- Kumbeshwar would have to be put up to an unprecedented 160.

How he rates against other years 2 milers is a matter of opinion, but it is hard to think of a current 2 mile chaser capable of beating him getting 2 stone in weight. Cue Card is probably the second best in training at the moment.

If you dont see a star in this lovely horse then you are following the wrong sport

Yes the BHA rates Cue Card 165 and he will surely rise to a higher mark than that when given the chance, yet SS beat him 7 lengths on the bridle so I think we can safely say the 169 for SS is an underestimation

but for sure today's race poses handicapping questions: it all depends on which horses you decide ran to a reliable mark. If you choose Idarah and His Excellency then SS 175 is ok but then you have to believe Kumbeshwar ran to 160 ish

I believe speed ratings will prove more reliable in this case

For me Sanctuair "points its toe" so wouldent want that ground..............

no betting interest bytheway

^ You will have the SAME problem with 'SPEED Ratings'

Previoius best TOPSPEED Ratings - merely as an example ...

Sprinter Sacre = 165
Kumbeshwar = 135
Sanctuaire = 150
Idarah = 132
His Excellency 108 ... finished only Half a length behind Idarah


So, AGAIN - a SUPER 'SPEED Rating' for Sprinter Sacre of, say, 180- would have ...

Kumbeshwar returning a NEW 'SPEED Rating' - some 30 lbs BETTER thann ever achieved previously ...
Sanctuaire - running 11 lbs ABOVE his previous best of 151 - and ...

Idarah - 'improving' 18 lbs' - whilst beaten 30 lengths.

- and HIS EXCELLENCY 'improving' 42 lbs from 108 to 150. ... and add another 6 lbs - if, like many 'Speed believers' - you don't believe in Weight-for-Age.

Simply NOT ON. 

You will drive yourself mad trying to justify literal ratings (not that most on here need any assistance).
The facts are;two horses tried to win.One destroyed the other and the places were4 irrelevant for handicapping purposes.

sprinters a cert

I was thinking more of the comparative time with Captain Conan who ran 6 seconds slower and carried 5 lbs more over the same C&D on the same day

what did he run to then?

I DID add a SMILEY - racingstar.

That's 'digging an even deeper hole' - judorick

Best previous CHASE Topspeed Ratings for that race.

Captain Conan = 114
Hinterland = 81
Third Intention = 107

Coincidentally - Captain Conan and Hinterland had previous TOPSPEED Hurdle Ratings of 129 and 126 - and were separated by just over the same 3 lengths difference.

6 seconds = 30lbs - so they say.

I'm not talking about previous ratings, I'm talking about today's times - they will get a going correction for the chase course and it will become fairly apparent

Sanctuaire rated 167


Handicapper should be sent back to school for that classic.
That makes him PF Nicholls greatest ever novice PMSL

No ..................caus some simply cant go in the mud..........

Spot on Glossy imo. Beautifully put.

RP have given Sprinter Sacre 180 with Kumbeshwar 161..........


That is beyond a f**king joke. Kumbeshwar=161?

Joe,
Most form publications are falling over themselves to try and justify a rating the horse is clearly worth.

that remains to be seen diamond joe, all form has to be tested before we can judge it, there were two 145 horses 15 lengths behind Kumbeshwar... did they both run 15lbs below form?

who knows? have to see how they run in the future

Thats true. The problem with RP, Timeform ratings are when they rate races through what they think the winner is capable of(GUESSING)

Sprinter Sacre was sublime today but cannot justify a 180 rating on this basis. He could well be capable of it, but has to actually do it.

IMHO if you take Kumbeshwars of 143 and being kind say he has improved 6-8 ilbs, it puts him on 149-151 and Sprinter Sacre on

IMHO you HAVE to rate the race through Kumbeshwar. He is exposed, has run up to his figure recently and was the ONLY horse (Winner apart) finishing the race well.

Sprinter Sacre on 171ish with a MASSIVE +

that would make Captain Conan about 136 based on the times and weights carried which looks low for a Grade 1 chase even if Hinterland really does drag it down (I have CC 36lbs lower than SS on todays times). I would put CC nearer 145 making SS 181

135 even CC if SS 171

well i haven't been around in the game as long as some of you but my instinct is that this horse is different gravy in this division at present.

i think he'll beat whatever is put in front of him and every time the opposition will be crabbed rather than recognizing an exceptional athlete.

we've been here before with so many recent horses i've thought are awesome.

is the cue card form rubbish now as well in its last race?

no, you are right - different gravy indeed

how much different is the only question... and then how does that compare to other greats

and Cue Card will only further enhance the form, I think he will end up mid to high 170s easily this season

that's fair enough, i just know that if SS keeps winning in facile fashion, many will rubbish what its beat rather than thinking it just could be an exceptional horse with a hell of a cruising speed.

How can you use Captain Conans Time to rate SS? 2 Different races run at different paces.
How are you calculating?

Exactly DJQ. You'll drive yourself insane (and probably penniless) trying to compare horses running in different races based on timings.

Agreed, I use Speed figures and ratings but it is a very rough way of judging abilities.

My issue is with RP and Timeform rating races on what they "Predict" the winner is capable of rather than what it has ACTUALLY achieved in this one specific race

'Thats true. The problem with RP, Timeform ratings are when they rate races through what they think the winner is capable of(GUESSING)

Sprinter Sacre was sublime today but cannot justify a 180 rating on this basis. He could well be capable of it, but has to actually do it'.

cannot argue with that at this stage diamond joe..

Good thread. Im very interested in how people rate races (and how they use them to judge handicaps)

He looked ok going right handed,but I became obsessed looking at his legs and action.

they ran the same C&D on the same day on the same going so the performances are directly comparable

6 seconds is about 30lbs at 2 miles trip and SS carried 6lbs more

therefore he ran approx 36lbs higher than Captain Conan

Far too simplistic a view IMO.

nobbly knees?

that's YOUR opinion

but that is exactly how Topspeed will work out the ratings. As all the chases will have the same going correction because they were all run on the same going then the times are directly comparable

suggest you write to Dave Edwards at the Racing Post and ask him to explain it

Of course it's my opinion, it's what forums such as this are founded upon.

...and my opinion is why I pay little attention to Topspeed ratings on the whole.

Speed ratings are useful but using them alone is like using hand gun to open a chestnut. So many variables. Whether the horse is exposed, how rating was achieved, when it was achieved, specific horse characteristics (Dog, Pig, Horse etc...)

so on what basis WOULD you compare Sprinter Sacre and Captain Conan?

if Captain Conan had run in the Tingle Creek where would he have finished if he ran the identical race to the one he actually did in his race today? and why?

I wouldn't compare them at this point it time. I don't see the purpose of it.

^
I agree, you could try and compare them through Hurdle marks etc....A rough estimate would put CC at 145-148.
Estimating Novices at this point especially novices with no decent speed figure is impossible. Literally 50-50 that they are good or they are over rated

sacre is in a different league  how sanctuaire was rated 3lbs inferior is lifes mystery

Ratings are subjective for me e.g SS beat Kumbeshwar 20L in a race K was never put in to win, my view is if SS was ridden alongside K in a head to head he could easily have taken 20+L out of K on the run in only so any attempt to quantify their respective performances when they for all purposes didnt run in the same race seems ridiculous....hopes this makes some sense.

wasnt able to be put in race..it needs further..and ss could have won twice as far

because there are a number of doubts about the performances of various runners in the Tingle Creek AND we have another race run on the same C&D it seems at least useful to use the comparison between the two races to see if there are any useful conclusions that can be drawn at this point

of course we will know much more once they have all run again but I want to be able to come to an opinion, based on something concrete, today that I can then measure later. If that then proves accurate I might be able to make a useful betting decision in future races.

This is the whole point of any ratings - to attempt to quantify performances as accurately as possible (always bearing in mind that they can be altered). Now you might argue the method but the intention is valuable for sure. And after many years of using speed ratings I have confidence in the times as a reliable guide.

Who called SS the "Greatest horse ever"?

SDC whoever it was.nap

Btw he beat sh1t in a sh1t time.

Think your 'mole in 7 barrows' is blind

Maybe Born with a twin..........he wasnt wrong though for the TTF because every muppet has him in their lists.hth

You cant correlate directly the Official handicapping mark in lengths for beating just because its
adjusted so for winning certain races, much depends on the make up of each race and how individuals decide to ride
the charges on the day, plus the going of course and so on!

why cant you people believe what you see with your own eyes ss done what he had to do today an murdered a fairly decent horse in sanctuaire without breaking sweat he also put al ferov in his place in the same fashion last year i think youl find trainers runnin scared of him this year an although it will make for a poor queen mother turn out im afraid the race is already at his mercy

Sizing Europe will ensure it's not a 'nothing' race.

glossy if sizing europe does turn out for the race then true it will add a bit of intrest however im not entirely convinced they wont go down theryannair route with him also im sure mr henderson knows exactly where he stands with him having trained his conqueror finnians rainbow last year

One thing I hope is we dont get the usual 5hit of connections dodging him.

I hope Finians, Sizing et all turn up

Sizing is KG bound.hth

I'm not saying that SE will beat him; just that an entry will ensure that the race has some credence.

So because he runs in the KG he won't run in the QM GT?

Where did I say that glossy?

Just didn't see the relevance of your comment in that case.

YSDC..........hth

Sizing is KG bound.hth

Once the -15 factor kicks in, in a couple of weeks the Irish horses will be house bound.

All this debate about Sprinter Sacre is subjective until he is tested by Sizing Europe in the Queen Mother. Even then excuses could easily be made for the horses beaten. The debate will go on and on.

My question is how would Sizing Europe and Sprinter Sacre compare on a 2 mile NH race? Which one would have more flat pace? Could we say Sizing Europe perhaps as he was the superior hurdler.

So why wouldn`t Sizing Europe be able to keep up with Sprinter Sacre over fences? both fences very well. Sanctuare race was ruined yesterday. He ran with the choke out, so how can we equate Sprinter Sacre with a rating from yesterdays race. Visually awesome but the form needs to be backed up.

you also need to remember that sanctuaire is rated on his address more than on his ability, and although he is a good horse, you couldn't really rate him properly on the tingle creek form.

he went off too fast and simply ran out of juice at the end.
you could also say that SS could have won by a lot further if he wanted to.

S.Sacre won in 13.30 seconds outside the standard time,this indicates Good to Soft ground on the Chase track. 13 Fences in under 4 minutes and won Easily!.
On his Second race over fences,The Novice C.Conan was only 19.30 seconds outside standard over the same C+D.
Perhaps the Rails had also been moved?.