What in Horse Racing is the most definning factor to a horses chance?

handbrake on/off

Ground....no good having the class if it cant go on the ground.

betfair.....simples.

if it's had amphetamine for breakfast
or
organic hay for tea

GOING - Single most important factor ... followed by Race Distance  - and the Course a strong consideration

- leaving out nefarious practices, of course  - and always assuming that the horse is fit and ready to run.

'Class' can be a great deceiver.... and is often unquantifiable, to any degree of finite appraisal.

the very one you haven't mentioned...

the other runners.

the defining parameter is a horses ability which can be estimated in a few ways and then adjusted according to conditions, from this (and the opposition) its quite easy to produce probability/odds, you do need to see horses in the prelims too or else take another hit on ROI% (in addition to the insider knowledge that you dont have but some in the market do)

My advice is to forget about finding the horse with the best chance of winning the race if that is what you are implying. This certainly wont lead to profit. I know one professional punter who does not know from one day to the next what the ground is like, it plays no part in his calculations

Your pretty much on the money top3man in terms of factors of importance to rating a horses chances in a race
but the better question for the bettor is what is the most important indicator of relaistic value related to
any ranked factor related to the enterants of a horse race.

Take for instance any factor and make a table of ranked values for every horse in say hundreds or thousands of races
and the top pick in every list of any factor will be the smallest price and less likely to make you any profit, but the 2nd or third by virtue of the market being distorted by the weight of money flowing to the top seeds will, will appear more profitable than the top mark.

I would rather back a horse that quielty had a good number of pointers and assured a fair price than a horse that
is say well in and going to be short or even odds on as then it really isnt worth backing and you only win at this game
by finding runners that will a good rake back at odds that havent been cleaned to the bone and beyond!

going is the correct answer imo.

mmm.............different courses different going..............clay/chalk/gravel (ect).............I go weight.............stops engines ......(esp fast pace)

I notice that draw doesnt come on your list and yet a high draw at some tracks and distances can be more of a handicap than the weights!

Feilds of plus 10-12 that is!

Draw would be factor into the way a race is likely to be run and course form would it not? but yes maybe I should have included draw into the factor

TOP3MAN...............N/H only...............my input

I recently looked at my ratings and discovered that at distances greater than a mile which indiates a bend involved at most tracks, that backing horses with a draw number higher than 10 are not profitable overall!

The Arc for instance always has big fields and the nature of the track makes it really dificult for high draws to win!

So - If FRANKEL was Drawn 11 ....... it would have NO Chance then?

Well it has 7 lenghts in hand on the next best horse in most of its races so it wouldnt matter greatly, also Frankel hasnt been in any big fields as of yet plus has his own pace maker to thin out the field!

bf_fananatic

Re:  "I recently looked at my ratings and discovered that at distances greater than a mile which indiates a bend involved at most tracks, that backing horses with a draw number higher than 10 are not profitable overall!"


What about those drawn 10 and below?

If the horse doesnt have "its ground".....the rest is immaterial...bf fanatic, you can spout all the rubbish you want, but ignore the ground at your peril!

Drawn 10 and below and rated did quite well

All depends how close the start is to the first bend as to track position, but also how much promient pace there is too the inside as to where they get trapped. Sea moon yesterday was beaten early in thr arc yesterday as he had to be dropped in the rear from a wide draw because there was no way he could get up in the van from that draw and hasnt got the turn of foot to make up the ground, he actually did well to finish 7th or 8th!!

I agree, if the ground is adverse then its a specialist race!

That Japenease horse was amazing in the Arc as he was drawn 18, never raced on worse than good-firm and had to suffer heavy and yet was only beaten by a whisker!

bf_fananatic 08 Oct 12 19:32
I agree, if the ground is adverse then its a specialist race!

if the ground is "adverse" & nothing seems to go on it.....its a no bet race....not a specialist race!

Well some horse love bottomles ground and fillys can hace an advantage as a light frame will not go in deep on the hoof!

Moneytree - end of

A no bet is best though in bad conditions, or possibly a better opportunity for finding lays!

light frame or not, its the horses action that tells you if it could go on the ground......99% of the time

Drawn 10 and below and rated did quite well

Can you post the last 20 'rated' winners drawn 10 or below?

'no bet race' rather suggests you dont understand the first and most basic rule of betting

Would much rather rely on the formbook and the pedigree when it comes to judging how effective a horse will be on the ground.

You are probably Right Rider...I dont do that well tbf

Wolverhampton top 3 rated, all distance, notice that draw 1 can be a bogey at most AW tracks as the track has had
the inside lave surface altered to slow down the runners!

the DRAW

Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run
29    27    23    33    37    21    26    11    15    10    8    5    2    0    0    0    2    0    1
Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose
25    20    16    24    32    13    19    10    13    10    8    5    2    0    0    0    2    0    1
Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win
4    7    7    9    5    8    7    1    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets
17.46    38.38    35.93    62.55    39.37    57.94    76.11    3.78    14.48    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00
SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%
13.79    25.93    30.43    27.27    13.51    38.10    26.92    9.09    13.33    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!    0.00    #DIV/0!    0.00
profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit
-11.54    11.38    12.93    29.55    2.37    36.94    50.11    -7.22    -0.52    -10.00    -8.00    -5.00    -2.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    -2.00    0.00    -1.00
4.37    5.48    5.13    6.95    7.87    7.24    10.87    3.78    7.24    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00
1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19

Only draws 2-7 have been profitable in this workbook!

Sample size was 150 races!

The quality of milk it drinks..

I hear Welsh milk is most delicious.

Hey thats a trade secret, dont metion the welsh milk system

Trainer-Steer clear of Cowboys.

Wolverhamton, sample size 80 races, all horses, no horse won with a draw number higher than 10!

Draws 2-7 achieved good returns!

roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%
32.0375    165.1066667    100.5692308    102.4936709    83.56097561    148.4166667    165.2258065    56.90697674    66.15217391    149.4117647    0    0    0            0    0    0    0   
Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run
80    75    65    79    82    72    62    43    46    34    33    20    9    0    0    1    2    1    2    0
Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose
73    62    53    67    73    60    52    38    41    29    33    20    9    0    0    1    2    1    2    0
Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win
7    13    12    12    9    12    10    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets
25.63    123.83    65.37    80.97    68.52    106.86    102.44    24.47    30.43    50.80    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00
SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%
8.75    17.33    18.46    15.19    10.98    16.67    16.13    11.63    10.87    14.71    0.00    0.00    0.00    #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    #DIV/0!
profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit
-54.37    48.83    0.37    1.97    -13.48    34.86    40.44    -18.53    -15.57    16.80    -33.00    -20.00    -9.00    0.00    0.00    -1.00    -2.00    -1.00    -2.00    0.00
3.66    9.53    5.45    6.75    7.61    8.91    10.24    4.89    6.09    10.16    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00

Also draw #1 housed the favourite the most and punters got slaughtered with the negative alteration of the surface to the inside draw lane!

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or



[img]http://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/ilikewavingatbuses/200349f2f380b62c61d2ea472b95f36d.jpg?v=32032[/img]

bf-fananatic, those stats are quite enlightening, oddly the double figure draws at wolves over 5f and 6f which would appear more detrimental to its chances than over a longer trip have actually been performing well. But then the stats can change over night!

Yep, this table is all distnces and alot of races are at the sprint trips!

The all weather can have big draw biases for long periods but things can change, especially if surface work is deployed!

bf-fananatic your stats are dated, friday night's first 3 winners drawn 13,11,13 stats stats stats.

Going.

I .)   VALUE         end of     !

Wolverhampton, sample size 80 races, personal top 3 rated, draws 2-7 only

BSP CHART ODDS 8.0-35 only

ODDS 8.0-35 huge ROI%

roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%    roi%
282.10    201.27    107.14    113.29    0    1065
Run    Run    Run    Run    Run    Run
29    18    14    17    10    7
Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose    Lose
20    15    13    16    10    5
Win    Win    Win    Win    Win    Win
9    3    1    1    0    2
Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets    Rets
81.81    36.23    15.00    19.26    0.00    74.55
SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%    SR%
31.03    16.67    7.14    5.88    0.00    28.57
profit    profit    profit    profit    profit    profit
52.81    18.23    1.00    2.26    -10.00    67.55
9.09    12.08    15.00    19.26    0.00    37.28

If your horse is 'not off' you have no chance
HTH

so 99.999999999 per cent of us are gamblers !   

Agree with bf_fanatic.

bf_fanantic.


Do you find you have major success with Hunter chases?

Hunter chases are ok though I havent got round to srveying race type at NH yet.You get alot of no-hopers in thease races
so the quality of field will effect average BSP of winner etc...

Had some good success today as I am testing a new calcualtion today, Hi-plexing the top 3 improvers rating figures in the ratings formulas.

this is why I had Wolverhampton data ready as I have just modified it now and transfered the new calcs to pontefract card today.

Check out thease ratings and the good priced winners are all highlighed and almost bar first race, a full house

2:10 »  Pontefract	points
Chant34	1625
Mutamaiz16	905
Jullundar15	784
2:40 »  Pontefract	points
Steer By The Stars16	467
Delores Rocket17 b	291
Kamchatka30	289
2:45 »  Pontefract	points
Fire Ship44	789
Asatir12 p	374
Dubawi Island14 b	273
3:15 »  Pontefract	points
Zuider Zee51	861
Lieutenant Miller46J	795
Darley Sun11	570
3:45 »  Pontefract	points
Kimbali9	388
Our Boy Jack30	335
Marford Missile14	284
4:45 »  Pontefract	points
Abundantly38	927
Kittens23	792
Scarlet Prince14	670
5:15  Pontefract	points
Mutaaleq52	1079
A´Juba28	1015
Kept14	471

Superb returns Bf-f

ground distance class in that order,you wouldnt back a soft ground horse in good/firm conditions would you,take fireship today best rpr/ts figures last time out and progressive up in class 0-85 to 0-95 and won at a mile ,won on soft last time and ran well on good/soft,was available at 4/1 last night went off at 2/1f.also fattsota on the 5th oct best on rpr/ts figures and the ground.

Well I was concerned today that I have always tried to keep all ratings relative in the formula to the 1 horse length standard, even my improvement figures are lenght related but as they are then multipled by a facor to arrive as a component of the overall points, I have relised that you must multiply the top 3 improvers by fators of 4x-6x to escape the rest of the field on a points basis, this has had the desired effect as pontefract has improved pre todays figures, also wolverhampton has improved returns also

IMPROVERS is the one thing missing from this thread as this type of runner is more likely to be ahead of not only the handicapper, but form pundits also and probably the most desirable of all factors as it is dripping with hidden value.

unless a improver has already proved themselves i wouldnt touch it,too many questions to answer,take fire ship today already proven on the ground & distance and ready for the step up in class

Improvement in a race horse is the biggest piece of guesswork of them all, however if you do get a accurate rating on the most previous form you can tell if a horse is ahead of the handicapper and the improvement just comes naturally from what the horse is potenitally bred for.

Fair point, but dont look for easy opportunites only when yoour in the gane to take a chance and find improvers at much bigger odds!

I need to buy some glasses as I keep typing spelling mistakes

Alot of people for the ground and I wouldnt discounnt it, my biggest gripe is that the going is never described right

The constant rain can change the going so quickly and this year has been the worst for it!

Take delores rocket, the best priced winning improver at Pontefract, I have it as the second best improver in the field

forecasted improvement mark -12.35
LTO-4.63
2TO-3.80
3TO-8.00

Delores rocket on its last race looked like it had stalled, but in fact the extra furlong took away lengths, my application takes this into account to outline the real improvement that may still exist and in this horses case, 2 wins from last 3 races.

Picking horses manually leads to lack of confidence and pushes you closer to the favourites, calculations push you closer to the value.q.e.d.

most of the winners come from the first 3 or 4 in the betting in most months of the year in good grade handicaps say 0-70 to 0-100,when the going suddenly changes with heavy rain or snow then you dont bet,i genreally bet between 9/4 and 7/1 where most winners come from,im no good at big price winners which pop up out of the blue

also dont bet in fields bigger than 12 runners so i have a relistic chance of finding the winner,got one for tomorrow 8pm wolves TIS ROCK N ROLL 5.6 at the moment.

Very good horse, it won with relative ease last time!

ok this one is 13 runners thought it was 12

If you back at 3.0 to 8.0, you have to look at trainer form and jockey bookings etc.

trainer out of form normally a no bet but less so with jockey bookings unless its a claimer who hasnt ridden many winners

There probably isn't one ,it's a combination of all of them, which when you factor in all the other runners equates to a massive puzzle and a possible look into the mental abyss of a horse race.

the better grade handicaps are best as a betting medium low grade horses are genreally not that consistent below 0-70 or class 5,take soul on saturday group 1&2 form and proven on good/soft up against mince progressive form in listed races,soul was the value bet at 4/1 as mince was proven in good/soft ground or the class

sorry,wasnt proven in good/soft or group races

My favorite races are AW handicaps

i made 38pts profit in january on the a/w,not even touched that since mind you june to september i have made 37 pts profit,a/w is defo the best for consistent profits

Top Speed figures are fantastic for the all weather .

Fast finishers off a slow pace are often well handicapped .

Speed profiles are by far the most under utilised aspect of horse racing this is why the (expensive)edgeinvestor service has been so successful over the years.

Bloody amazing. I look through the first five pages of replys and nobody mentions odds. Little wonder 99% of punters loose.

Racing is not just about picking winners. You have to have a mathematical edge.

The  ability to  frame an accurate  market set at a 100% or less is the most definning factor in the chance of a horse or sportsman in an event

If you can't add up the percentages on a betting board in your head and give youself a real frame of reference then give the game away or take up darts.

Read my article 'Does the ground really matter'

The last five articles are spot on

The last 5 posts are pretty good ones I ment

Tilt is correct, the price is the most important thing but lets not forget prices are made up many of the components mentioned on here, what we have to do is find the ones that are significant but do not compress prices or even find the ones that do compress prices and either ignore them or perhaps bet against them

how are people defining class here? been betting for 30 yrs and i have no idea what people mean when they say class...how does it differ from ability?

johnnybriggs
08 Oct 12 22:54

Speed profiles are by far the most under utilised aspect of horse racing


also, what do you mean by speed profiles, JB? is that the same as pace maps or completely different?

My brighton ratings have picked 2 up thus far

2:20 »  Brighton	points
Nenge Mboko70	872
Gigawatt43	526
Spanish Art22	317
2:50 »  Brighton	points
Must Be Me9 p	491
Scepticism18	354
Arctic Admiral43	350
3:20 »  Brighton	points
Backstage Tour13	1421
Sublimation3	940
Sesentum25	47
3:50 »  Brighton	points
Chasin´ Rainbows10	1322
Satwa Ballerina61 b	1082
Lady Romanza5 6xp	633
4:20 »  Brighton	points
Jodawes267J	1283
Lyric Poet35 t	636
Turjuman31 p	600
4:50 »  Brighton	points
Uncle Dermot6 6x	1356
Saint Irene23	873
Spiritual Art23 v	720
5:20  Brighton	points
Imjin River13	1176
Jackie Love22 v	1039
Leelu13	547

Hi-plexing the top 3 improvers rating figures in the ratings formulas is the future by the look of it bf_fananatic.

Wow top2rated your as as always highly observant, and thanks for the comment.I reckon its the improvers that are probably the biggest targets for finding value as horses that have peaked are rarely avaible at interesting odds but improvers are also hard to spot!

The last race at brighton was won by my second best improver for that race, but it didnt get enough points from its other factors to top the list !

ttt

The most defining factor to a horses chance is HONESTY

the horses form doesn't really speak for itself, because trainers have for years manipulated the form book, for instance when you back a horse how do you know the horse hasn't been out of its box for weeks on end?, hello is right "honesty", find an honest trainer and I'm sure you'll find the end of the rainbow, and rumour has it there is a crock of gold, but its only a rumour as nobody has yet quite reached the end of that rainbow.