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A) Ground
B) Trip
C) Class
D) Jockey
E) Course Form
F) Way the race is likely to run
G) Field Size
H) Weight
Suppose distance, the course and class are the only thing you can easily predict, Does weight really matter, surely it is down to how the race is run as to how the weight tells, plus also field size is a result of the way it will be run, ground is it worth even predicting, Racingpost cant even get that right, they advertised the ground as good to soft at pontefracht yet in the annalysis of fire ship race it says he won on similiar going last time out, yet the ground was heavy that day, so is ground really that important to factor in and how do you know what tactics are going to be deployed by each runner in the race.
So what would you say is the most definning factor to a horses chance, im going to say class form.
B) Trip
C) Class
D) Jockey
E) Course Form
F) Way the race is likely to run
G) Field Size
H) Weight
Suppose distance, the course and class are the only thing you can easily predict, Does weight really matter, surely it is down to how the race is run as to how the weight tells, plus also field size is a result of the way it will be run, ground is it worth even predicting, Racingpost cant even get that right, they advertised the ground as good to soft at pontefracht yet in the annalysis of fire ship race it says he won on similiar going last time out, yet the ground was heavy that day, so is ground really that important to factor in and how do you know what tactics are going to be deployed by each runner in the race.
So what would you say is the most definning factor to a horses chance, im going to say class form.
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Replies: 94
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handbrake on/off
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Ground....no good having the class if it cant go on the ground.
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betfair.....simples.
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if it's had amphetamine for breakfast
or organic hay for tea |
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GOING - Single most important factor ... followed by Race Distance - and the Course a strong consideration
- leaving out nefarious practices, of course - and always assuming that the horse is fit and ready to run. 'Class' can be a great deceiver.... and is often unquantifiable, to any degree of finite appraisal. |
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the very one you haven't mentioned...
the other runners. |
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the defining parameter is a horses ability which can be estimated in a few ways and then adjusted according to conditions, from this (and the opposition) its quite easy to produce probability/odds, you do need to see horses in the prelims too or else take another hit on ROI% (in addition to the insider knowledge that you dont have but some in the market do)
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My advice is to forget about finding the horse with the best chance of winning the race if that is what you are implying. This certainly wont lead to profit. I know one professional punter who does not know from one day to the next what the ground is like, it plays no part in his calculations
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Your pretty much on the money top3man in terms of factors of importance to rating a horses chances in a race
but the better question for the bettor is what is the most important indicator of relaistic value related to any ranked factor related to the enterants of a horse race. Take for instance any factor and make a table of ranked values for every horse in say hundreds or thousands of races and the top pick in every list of any factor will be the smallest price and less likely to make you any profit, but the 2nd or third by virtue of the market being distorted by the weight of money flowing to the top seeds will, will appear more profitable than the top mark. I would rather back a horse that quielty had a good number of pointers and assured a fair price than a horse that is say well in and going to be short or even odds on as then it really isnt worth backing and you only win at this game by finding runners that will a good rake back at odds that havent been cleaned to the bone and beyond! |
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going is the correct answer imo.
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mmm.............different courses different going..............clay/chalk/gravel (ect).............I go weight.............stops engines ......(esp fast pace)
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I notice that draw doesnt come on your list and yet a high draw at some tracks and distances can be more of a handicap than the weights!
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Feilds of plus 10-12 that is!
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Draw would be factor into the way a race is likely to be run and course form would it not? but yes maybe I should have included draw into the factor
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TOP3MAN...............N/H only...............my input
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I recently looked at my ratings and discovered that at distances greater than a mile which indiates a bend involved at most tracks, that backing horses with a draw number higher than 10 are not profitable overall!
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The Arc for instance always has big fields and the nature of the track makes it really dificult for high draws to win!
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So - If FRANKEL was Drawn 11 ....... it would have NO Chance then?
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Well it has 7 lenghts in hand on the next best horse in most of its races so it wouldnt matter greatly, also Frankel hasnt been in any big fields as of yet plus has his own pace maker to thin out the field!
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bf_fananatic
Re: "I recently looked at my ratings and discovered that at distances greater than a mile which indiates a bend involved at most tracks, that backing horses with a draw number higher than 10 are not profitable overall!" What about those drawn 10 and below? |
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If the horse doesnt have "its ground".....the rest is immaterial...bf fanatic, you can spout all the rubbish you want, but ignore the ground at your peril!
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Drawn 10 and below and rated did quite well
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All depends how close the start is to the first bend as to track position, but also how much promient pace there is too the inside as to where they get trapped. Sea moon yesterday was beaten early in thr arc yesterday as he had to be dropped in the rear from a wide draw because there was no way he could get up in the van from that draw and hasnt got the turn of foot to make up the ground, he actually did well to finish 7th or 8th!!
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I agree, if the ground is adverse then its a specialist race!
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That Japenease horse was amazing in the Arc as he was drawn 18, never raced on worse than good-firm and had to suffer heavy and yet was only beaten by a whisker!
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bf_fananatic 08 Oct 12 19:32
I agree, if the ground is adverse then its a specialist race! if the ground is "adverse" & nothing seems to go on it.....its a no bet race....not a specialist race! |
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Well some horse love bottomles ground and fillys can hace an advantage as a light frame will not go in deep on the hoof!
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Moneytree - end of
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A no bet is best though in bad conditions, or possibly a better opportunity for finding lays!
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light frame or not, its the horses action that tells you if it could go on the ground......99% of the time
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Drawn 10 and below and rated did quite well
Can you post the last 20 'rated' winners drawn 10 or below? |
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'no bet race' rather suggests you dont understand the first and most basic rule of betting
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Would much rather rely on the formbook and the pedigree when it comes to judging how effective a horse will be on the ground.
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You are probably Right Rider...I dont do that well tbf
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Wolverhampton top 3 rated, all distance, notice that draw 1 can be a bogey at most AW tracks as the track has had
the inside lave surface altered to slow down the runners! the DRAW Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run Run 29 27 23 33 37 21 26 11 15 10 8 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose 25 20 16 24 32 13 19 10 13 10 8 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win Win 4 7 7 9 5 8 7 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets Rets 17.46 38.38 35.93 62.55 39.37 57.94 76.11 3.78 14.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% SR% 13.79 25.93 30.43 27.27 13.51 38.10 26.92 9.09 13.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit profit -11.54 11.38 12.93 29.55 2.37 36.94 50.11 -7.22 -0.52 -10.00 -8.00 -5.00 -2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 0.00 -1.00 4.37 5.48 5.13 6.95 7.87 7.24 10.87 3.78 7.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 |
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Only draws 2-7 have been profitable in this workbook!
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Sample size was 150 races!
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The quality of milk it drinks..
I hear Welsh milk is most delicious. |
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Hey thats a trade secret, dont metion the welsh milk system
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