Another gamble landed

I have nothing against double carpet winners Alias. True 34.0 chances should win 1 in every 34 runs. Anyway, if they start double carpet it's probably as much of a shock to the insiders as it is to us. What I can't abide is horses that should be 34.0 based on recent form starting 5.0 and p1ssing in.

eh?    it only becomes apparent after the event that the horse was not off.  That is how the innocent punter gets done over.

Why do so many of you bother with British racing? It's been bad for a few years.
10+ years ago youi could get cheated out of your money now and again but under the present system you might as well bet on flapping.

Ah. Now I understand. You didn't know anything. It's all conjecture.

I never said anything remotely resembling 'I knew today wasn't the day/horse not off/trainer says NO'.     Thats the inside info those of us with no connections are kept in the dark about!!

No - I never conjectured!!!!  After the race I came on and said 'the trainer said NO' !!

i am an innocent punter with nothing but the form book to go on - that is why i/people like me get taken to the cleaners.

You said "trainer said NO". In fact you haven't a clue what the trainer said.

  'trainer said NO' doesn't mean the trainer, at some point prior to the race, actually utters the word 'NO' like some kind of Papal Edict

it means he didn;t intend for it to win.  A trainer could have his tongue cut out but he could still decide if he wanted a horse to win or lose.
The physical act of speaking is not involved.

Ah.Semaphore.

Don't bother with artie desperate. He actually believes half the time THEY're doing him a favour with non-triers.

if 10 horses race, 9 don't win. No-one saying the other 9 are bent.  People say 'bent' when a horse has evrything in its favour and it fails - and then they see the same thing happen day in day out, week in week out. Then they say 'that trainer' is bent

It's nice to learn new things after betting for a living for 15 years. Thanks.

yes Feck, Artie knows what I meant . But he's a clever chappie who thinks he'll have some fun with me with endless pedestrian questions.  i'm happy to supply equally endless pedestrian answers almost for as long as he likes.
15 years - getting the measuring rod out now!!

As that excellent presenter/commentator would say "he's not messing about".

been betting about same length of time myself - but strictly for fun. I only have the form book you see.

With Johnston, it is not the fact that they get beaten, it is the fact they are beaten after about a furlong and finish miles out the back. Again and again.

There's definitely a cruelty issue there Barton.

They obviously run when they are not right a lot of the time and that is why I will NEVER back a Johnston horse each way.

I don't have a form book desper..Just the ratings I use .I accept that some of the horses I back lose because they aren't trying,but I also accept that sometimes I get a winner because the main opposition isn't trying !

You also get lower odds in the latter case artie (unless you've placed your bet before the insider poison hits the market).

Maybe,but I know what price I want.If I don't get it, I move on to the next horse.Plenty to go at.

I also accept that I'm not only competing against your beloved "insiders" but other shrewdies,tipsters etc.etc.That's the nature of a betting market.Still the greatest thing since sliced bread.

And of course I get better odds on my horse when a gamble goes wrong.

Hi Feck, I've sent you a message.

Is it inside info ????

Feck, you know what I was getting at just as I know what you're getting at. Racing has always been a minefield for most, exchanges or not,much like share dealing I suppose. I'm glad to say I've never tried my hand at that btw.

Alias, there is little doubt it has got worse since exchanges as the rewards are much greater. Provided THEY don't lay, it can even be done through their own account as that particular form of insider trading has the blessing of the BHA. None of that is betfair's fault (any more than terrorism is the fault of airlines) but their interface does it make it easy for THEM to monopolise the backing of their live one once the handbrake is off. If THEY don't realise they're accelerating the demise of the game though, THEY are very stupid. I often compare the odds on the winning accumulators at various meetings using the rp forecast and sp. The difference is often of hilarious proportions, the AW being a particular joke.

"The RP forecast" ?

You are making a case that racing is corrupt based on the RP forecast usually being wrong ???



You are becoming ever more amusing.

R P =   Reverential Price



/ˌrevəˈrenʃ(ə)l/
caused by, or full of, a strong feeling of respect and admiration
He gazed at her in reverential awe.

Your amusement shows your stupidity "bolty". Any forecast is going to be "wrong" as you put it, but why is it so consistently wrong on the one side where winners are concerned? Suppose a coin was tossed 40 times a day and the rp forecast always went evens each of two. If the average sp of the winning tosses divided by the average rp f/c was 0.75 over a large sample what would your conclusion be? The rp f/c was "amusing"?

Fair enough Feck. I'm happy to admit you obviously study the whole thing pretty deeply, much more than me, but I'm sure you realise as I do that there will always be those with advantages. That's not to say it's right of course. Regarding "accelerating the demise of the game", I suppose what you're pointing at is a kind of perverted law of diminishing returns. Difficult to argue that, with the added difficulty of diminishing levy returns, mostly due to the FOBT "attraction".

Alias 23 Sep 12 11:09 Joined: 28 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 2,152 | Blogger: Alias's blog

Fair enough Feck. I'm happy to admit you obviously study the whole thing pretty deeply, much more than me


And he is still clueless after all his "studying", and when he gets it wrong, which he does on a daily basis he starts a thread blaming everyone except himself, if he was anyway smart and believed half of the crap he posts, he would never back a horse again.

Tbf, knowledge is power... same as it ever was ! 


P.S.



Betfair, can we 'ave an emicon for a secret handshake ! 

That's the thing Alias, it's as if the racing fraternity have never come to terms with the fact there are now alternatives. In the old days your average punter might have felt he was getting a less than fair deal but put up with it because he liked a bet but now he'll just turn to something else to bet on and get his fix. While I agree there will always be people with advantages the solution is to have a system that has penalties in place for abusing those advantages. How do you quantify what amounts to abuse? The same way the rest of us do, through the market.

And he is still clueless after all his "studying", and when he gets it wrong, which he does on a daily basis he starts a thread blaming everyone except himself, if he was anyway smart and believed half of the crap he posts, he would never back a horse again

I would put money on it you're an insider Gandalf and one of those insiders who are destroying the game. If you're not then you're the clueless mug.

           

Another of your conspiracy theories Feck, that I'm an insider, it's always someone else to blame with you. You're own choice of username alludes to what you already believe yourself to be, change it to what you, me and many others on here know you to be, "Fcuking Idiot".

You are a clueless loser, you can't stop gambling by your own admission on a previous moaning thread of yours, you back in nearly every race, when you lose it's not your fault but always others. If you believe a small percentage of the krapp you post about the game and still back horses despite this, then you truly are an idiot.

If you're not an insider Gandalf then you must be one of their @rse sookers and probably believe the old Deano line "the racing in this country is the straightest in the world". The fact your latest rant resorts to a play on my user name (nobody's ever thought of that before - did you ever see the episode of Father Ted with Richard Wilson?) exposes you for the clown you are.

I'm not a loser. I don't particularly care whether you believe me or not. As far as me continuing to bet while knowing the game is corrupt is concerned, that's no different to operating a successful High St store despite shoplifting being rife.

Feck,



good morning. I think you've alluded to yourself that the exchanges have led to increased corruption/ insider information !



Surely, those of us play the horses on a regular basis understand this, and factor it in to our ''informed?'' calculations !  ?

You are nothing but a constant losing moaner, thread after thread, day after day, all down to somebody else.

Like I said, if you believe half the krapp you write about the game. why continue to back?

Point Proven.

I like your High st shop analogy Feck, i'd love to see you running one of those, every time an old women put her hand in her pocket to pull out her purse you'd be sweeping her legs from under her for fear of her pulling out a knife to rob you.

He'd only sell to customers' wearing 'oss masks !

Surely, those of us play the horses on a regular basis understand this, and factor it in to our ''informed?'' calculations

Of course but it doesn't follow that we should accept it anymore than the High St store would expect its security guards to turn a blind eye to the shoplifters.


I like your High st shop analogy Feck, i'd love to see you running one of those, every time an old women put her hand in her pocket to pull out her purse you'd be sweeping her legs from under her for fear of her pulling out a knife to rob you.

If shoplifting was as rife as corruption in racing I'd be entirely justified. Racing folk think they have a divine right to defraud punters (although they don't see it as fraud).

Bookmakers don't accept bets from winners. We all know that, we know it's wrong, we all complain about it and long for the day it's exposed for what it is. Why should we accept corruption within racing without so much as a whimper?

Punters who claim they don't win because they only have the form book are in denial. They don't win because they are not good enough to win at the game

I go racing a hell of a lot, im a paddock /  to post watcher,i do think that especially in the lower grade the form book is of very little relevance tbh.

"there's little doubt it( corruption ) has got worse since exchanges".Where is your evidence for this.Haven't things got better for YOU since exchanges ? If there were not exchanges,who would you bet with ?I don't think you would get your sort of stakes on with bookmakers.

I think there are a few little clues there without empirical evidence. The most obvious one for me would be the number of horses slowly away due to the late removal of blindfolds. This used to an extremely rare occurance, is commonplace now.

Feck

The betting forecasts in the Rp are often wrong( concerning many more losers than winners) because those that compile them are not very good at it. This has been the case for 25 years,it's not some sudden conspiracy.

I've changed my mind.
You are not amusing.

You are just a complete tool who has to blame someone else for your mistakes.

Thats a bit harsh bolty....   

FYI bolty

If you adjust both the rp f/c and the sp of all runners to a 100% book (using a formula that maps sp's to their "true" odds) then winners are 62% more likely to have a shorter SP100 than FC100 and losers are 60% more likely to have a larger SP100 than FC100.

If racing is straight don't you find it strange that the rp f/c errors seem so skewed in differing directions wrt winners and losers?

I love it when a gamble is landed. Its an expensive game is keeping horses in training, fair play to connections when they land one.

Owners are being made mugs of by bookmakers, trainers, racecourses etc. That does not give them the right to defraud punters.

Who the hell is defrauding punters? If you think these gambles are so good then join in !! You will soon find out that there are more losing ones than winning ones.

Feck, you are so miserable and negative about horse racing, all you ever do is whinge whinge and then whinge again have you ever thought another hobby? One that might cheer you up a bit?

Feck, do you think or agree with me that anyone who pays PC on

here of rates between 20-60% of their profits must be insiders

or outright cheats, it seems inconceivable that any straight player

would stand for it.

It seems to me that many on here have lost the joy that Horse Racing is meant to provide, i understand that many play on here as their main source of income, i also understand that some play with far bigger banks than others. The fact of the matter however is this,  there is no code, there is no Golden Egg, we CANNOT get it right all the time and we should enjoy the times that we do.

If you find this sport and its supposed cheating (which i am not saying does not take place) eating you up on a daily basis it is time for you to review your situation and consider doing somthing else.

This great sport is what it is, a sport....but with its hand in hand relationship with gambling there will be many times when the glaringly obvious does not happen, and in its place comes shock and surprise, disbelief even.

Im not saying it is right, but overheads for connections are excessive to say the least, and they all want a piece of the action.

Enjoy the winners, take the losers with a pinch of salt as more winners are always just around the corner.

Its all just a game.

Tiger of course there are are more losing gambles than winning ones

but does it matter when you are achieving huge odds about the winners

you are finding.

I agree with Tiger
take my nap yesterday Peachey Moment F/cast 5/1 in the racing post ok it was a very open race  i made it anything between 9/2 and 6/1
Blow me the nag opened 8/1 drifted to 11/1  and was never at the races beaten 28 yes 28 lengths ......
Come racing get the Value

zipper that happens daily, those in the know must get their wages.

wee eck. Gambles come from many different sources and for many different reasons. Some are tipster based, some are connection based, some are just shrewdies out there who can spot an overpriced horse and act accordingly, some are going based - when the rain comes especially, some are form based. People should stop whining about these gambles - no one forces anyone to bet in this game. Deal with the situation as you see it, if you don't like it, then don't play, no one forces us to.

Wee  eck i agree it happens daily
But most punters like beening kissed when they are getting shafted

eck, most pc payers are traders and/or cheats but not all are. I doubt there will be many insiders paying pc as they're unlikely to go beyond the 150 markets on their cheating account.

Tiger, nobody forces us to use banks. Doesn't mean they should be allowed to shaft all and sundry. And nobody's saying all gambles are corrupt but in many cases the form couldn't possibly justify the confidence.

zipper, I am sure you will be french kissed if you ask nicely

Feck  you talk a lot of sense  but so do i
gambles are when the form book says it cannot win  say the nag  opens  16/1 punted down to  9/2 and wins pulling a cart
The BHB and Jockey Club  say nowt  ..
Thats what is wrong with racing Today
and thats  why The BBC is pulling out of  Horse Racing .

Feck 150 markets?  I have used over 29000 markets in my time on here.

zipper, that type of thing has gone on since time memorial the difference

these days is how easy to lay one on here when it is not off.

jesus feck cheer up same old same old

you hate the way betfair has gone but you still pile thousands in every day

go figure

feck (and others debating) - be interested in your view on my question on here. see thread.

Wee eck  one last one from  me and i mean one last one
years ago  before Betfair
certain connections were able to profit from non triers with certain bookies
the zig was this ... in return for marking their cards with the non ziggers when they had a zigger they could be on to lumps. The inside bookie spread the liability around, everybody was happy
but today the connections dont need bookies cut out the middle man , they play the exchanges. Hope this helps

eck, I don't get your point. If I was a corrupt insider I'd obviously have to do my corrupt lays through other people's accounts (or I'd be pulled up by the BHA) but I'd have to own an awful lot of horses to have more than 150 gambles a year.

jesus feck cheer up same old same old

Hint: if the thread says started by me don't read it if you're fed up listening to me.

PS I hate the way the country's went. It doesn't follow I have to leave it.

point is, if it was so easy just follow the money?

I hate to say it feck but you have to evolve, i hate all the skullduggery but i think you have have to accept it as part and parcel of it all.

I accept it's likely nothing will be done about it roo but if it keeps on the way it's going the game is finished anyway.

To be fair, you said that years ago and there's no sign yet feck

TRhere's every sign stu.

trainers drugging horses
jockeys stopping horses for money

but they're back in the game within a couple of years even if caught

what i dont understand is this feck

moaning on here but still putting thousands into each market

how is that going to help "change" the game please

It won't. It will help speed up its demise though.

It won't. It will help speed up its demise though.

Can't understand your reasoning Feck. Are you saying because YOU can't get your huge bets on this means "the game is finished".Who is it finished for ? Owners,trainers,jockeys,broadcasters,betting shop punters ?Once a year Grand National punters ?Doesn't look like "its finished" to me. Seems to be thriving.

That's not what I'm saying artie. I'm saying while THEY can get their bets on corruption will be rife and if the BHA continue to turn a blind eye punters won't be doing the same. The game will therefore continue on its downward spiral as punters turn to other sports where they're getting a fairer crack of the whip.

Im not sure about this but I think the number of race meetings has increased next year .Is that a "downward spiral" ?

Does more mean better, artie?

Get back to me when it's the prize money that increases artie. I won't hold my breath.

It's a big jump from " I'm fed up 'cos I can't get my ( large ) bets matched" to "the games finished" !

I didn't say it was finished.

Sep 24th. 13.38

if it keeps on the way it's going the game is finished anyway

If I said to you "if you keep smoking you'll ruin your health" is that the same thing as saying "your health is ruined"?

Feck,



good evening. You'd make an excellent politician... why don't you apply for the Jockey Club ?   

.. or the BHA

I didn't go to Eton halycon.

... yes indeed. That, certainly does make a difference.


Won finds, high rank in the Army also helps !   

I daresay a regular tuck hamper from mummy would also go down well with them.

How beastly !