My proof is just as valid as your proof Gren. And don't say the length of grass is laughable that was a point of discussion not too long ago. So because there are massive flaws and unknowns in the system it cannot be reled upon. And you never allowed for the fact that Acot have just laid  new track.

How many times have you heard trainers complaining about the track being too firm and getting loads of non runners? Come on Grendel, you can't even trust a COC when he gives a going report.

official going i meant, as you seem to infer that wrong going reports would affect this study

I've just been reading about the Lockinge Stakes;

"The present system of race grading was introduced in 1971, and the Lockinge Stakes was classed at Group 2 level. It was relegated to Group 3 in 1983, and it regained Group 2 status in 1985. It became a Group 1 event in 1995, and at this point the minimum age was raised to four"

Just who is the genius responsible for downgrading this race after the three previous winners were Young Generation, Kris & Belmont Bay?
Probably someone who suspected they weren't up to competing in group two company.

I always thought in those days, before any re-assessment, the official ratings of the last FIVE winners dictated the pattern status.
I think the group ones were 'set in stone' but the group 2/3 & listed had opportunities to be promoted or relegated.

Anyone know whether this system is still in place or has the 'reshuffle' over the last decade ensured a ceiling for the number of group races?

When Brigadier Gerard won the Lockinge first time out as a 4 year old he carried 9st 5lbs. The 3 year old filly Crespinall who finished last beaten 15+ lengths carried 7st 8lbs. She had just won the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom and after her defeat in the Lockinge won the Group 2 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

When Sparkler won the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot it was a Group 3. Sparkler, a 4 year old, carried 9st 8lbs while the 2nd Calshot Light (rated 116) carried 8st 10lbs and was beaten three quarters of a length. Sparkler had suffred badly with the virus and was expected to need the run.

In fact our flat breed have improved so much that they have replaced the old style national hunt types over the jumps, Old Vic is siring Grand National winners nowadays.  They aren't as sturdy nowadays though hence the increase in fatal falls.

Brigust - over a mile, I suspect your wait is over!
Will you review your stance if he bolts home in the Juddmonte or (quite reasonably) only be a convert with a 12f victory too?

That depends upon the opponents. I'm reasonable, I haven't yet seen any, in fact there hasn't been any race, where he could be considered better than BG so I await with interest.

My point was that the breed wasn't considered able to carry the weight however much you think it has improved.

And they were running the Derby in 2m 34s in the '30s.

"stick to electronic timing era brigust, not some pi$$ed up colonel with a stopwatch and binoculars"

I never thought about that Gren. They probably started timing when the first horse jumped off to set the running. They could have been even faster ffs. Unless they alway jumped off in a straight line of course.

was good to firm invented in 1985 or something?, if anything the quest for good ground nowadays will slow the races down ... we've had wet summers since 2007 in any case

Brig - tomorrow's Racing Post has an item reliving Brigadier Gerard's career, though I suspect you're not gonna learn anything new

a 'no' to what brigust? ... the 'going' reports are irrelevant, you can't honestly believe that the ground has gradually been getting faster at a constant rate at every track in the country relentlessly since 1965 despite clerks of the courses efforts to avoid too fast a ground that would jar a horse much more than they would have bothered to years ago.

Excelebration was officially raised to 126 (133 timeform equivalent) when winning the 7f Hungerford Stakes by 6 lengths from 112 rated Beacon Lodge and 7¾ l ahead of 109 rated Doncaster Rover and The Cheka back in 5th and 6th with 3rd and 4th placed Musir and Dubawi Gold deemed to have run below their 118 and 117 official marks, Excelebrations next run was a win in the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin over 1m in heavy ground, so between finishing third to Frankel in the SJP and meeting him again in the QE2 he raised his official 117 mark to 126 quite legitimately in Frankels absence.

Timeform is not directly comparable to BHA ratings, it's like comparing fahrenheit to celsius. Subtract 7 from Timeforms figures and you can vaguely compare but they still use different methods.

I don't buy the RP nowadays, I may do as a treat though ... I'd rather spend £47 a month on Raceform Interactive than £2 a day buying the Racing Post ... may get the online version as it has features without cards and form.