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The 0 to 140 scale changed to the 0 to Frankel Scale
The 0 to 140 scale changed to the 0 to Frankel Scale
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Frankel's steady pace is a lot faster than average!
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What Frankel has done to Excelebration, is even more of a mental beating that what Kauto Star handed out to Exotic Dancer!
yes i agree, i cant help thinking this was especially evident last week. what i want to see is a mile race without frankel and see how it develops, i dont see excelebration beating them like frankel beats him. i mean i talk about it a lot but excelebrations race in france against rio de la plata was not impressive and he was pushed for a fair bit even tho he was comfortably on top by the line but that was just rio de la plata! |
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The thing is ILWAB, in the QA Excelebration was asked to go quicker to go with Frankel, this would have put him at the edge of his sprinting speed which is not that much faster than cruising speed in most horses in reality thus quickly emptying out his reserves. The third horse is probably not as genuine and was holding something back when asked to quicken therefore didn't empty out as quickly as Excelebration in the final furlong
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Exactly the same scenario was played out with Canford Cliffs in last seasons Sussex stakes, the horse looks so classy when able to deep close whilst cruising, but a tiny bit faster to chase and his action goes to pot
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yes stow but im talking about bullet train, he set the pace til frankel too it up and from what i could see excelebration prob travelled as well as he ever has and arguably for longer than previous races. i mean the 3rd was catching him even tho he was just behind them and was under the pump well before both the 1st and 2nd.
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possibly grendel.
i know frankels stride has horses in trouble. |
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I'd dearly love to see Frankel do a demolition job from start to finish in the July cup.
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Grendel - I think that was evident in the Sussex of the previous season when Canford Cliffs nailed Rip Van Winkle.
Hughes looked very comfortable in the saddle that day and maybe there really wasn't that much he had in hand of RVW, who in reality over a mile would have little in hand of Excelebration. |
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yeah it would be a spectacle alright.
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yep and why he veered acros the track in the Greenham and got beat by **** Turpin
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yes i always said hughes didnt have a lot when nailing rip, i mean he only just caught him and the natural momentum of the horse just got him by, whipping more wouldnt have got the horse to move faster.
imo. |
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Grendel - it almost surprising that he didn't do that in the 2000 Guineas as he was well outpointed by a much under-rated colt, but then again...Makfi came from behind Hughes that day.
Dave Turpin was in a battle with him in the Lockinge whereas Frankel just 'broke' him in the Sussex. Maybe he didn't have the heart or the constitution for a battle, and it may have been a wise move to retire him and dole out the propaganda - after all...as far as top-class performers go, you'd struggle to find a duller pedigree for a potential stallion. |
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Canford struggled on the downwhill section of the dip in the guineas, a section when sprinting speed would have had to have been at a premium, but ran on again to the line
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I don't think Canford Cliffs was at his best for his first two runs of that season, and at the risk of sounding like Aidan, he would not have been out of place in the July Cup - he'd have won most of the recent renewals easily!
I certainly don't think he ever struggled for speed, and whilst you could be right about the dip in the Guineas, from memory I thought he travelled OK and came from a similar position to Makfi, and looked to have the rest covered, until the climb to the line took its toll. Maybe at that stage of his career, he didn't see out the mile THAT well. Nevertheless...I'm sure Coolmore invested heavily in him as a potential stallion, but if memory serves...it was an 'undisclosed' sum and a gamble that I suspect won't reap dividends. They must have been gutted to see him routed by Frankel, and I have little doubt they've exaggerated petty excuses, as he was battered & outclassed! |
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Grendel - it's amazing what the rose-tinted specs do in this game
 I've just watched that Guineas again and Makfi & Canford Cliffs were in similar positions throughout! I always though Makfi challenged later, but there seemed no excuses for Hannon's colt, except that he possibly ran a bit free in the early stages. He was beaten by a superior colt on the day, though I expect connections were flummoxed why he couldn't beat his stablemate...AGAIN! |
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If Excelebration is that good why is it the the horses who finished behind him, even in his Group 1 win, have won nothing? The 2 horses he beat in his Group 1 win have run 10 times and won one Group 2 between them. The proof of a good horse is mirrored in the results of the horses he beat. As I've said before the horses who finished 2nd to him when he won and 3rd when he was 2nd to Frankel have run 70+ times and only won 3 minor handicaps and a maiden.
When Sea Bird 11 won the Arc by 6 lengths in a canter he sprinted clear of the unbeaten French Derby winner with the Irish Derby and King George winner beaten miles. That race alone supercedes anything Frankel has done in any language. When Brigadier Gerard won his 2000 Guineas he was 2 lengths behind Mill Reef when they started racing in earnest 3 out and beat him 3 lengths going away. With the, unbeaten in 8 races including all the top races in France, My Swallow in third. Mill Reef had won the Coventry by 7, Gimcrack by 10 and the Dewhust by 5 lengths, he then won the Derby, Eclipse, King George, Arc, Prix Ganay and Coronation Cup. How on this earth Timeform can put Frankel above them beggars belief. I don't care how far he beat Side Glance in the Queen Anne. |
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brigust1
25 Jun 12 18:12 Joined: 07 Dec 01 When Sea Bird 11 won the Arc by 6 lengths in a canter he sprinted clear of the unbeaten French Derby winner with the Irish Derby and King George winner beaten miles. That race alone supercedes anything Frankel has done in any language. Maybe the champions behind him were overrated. |
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What champions were 6 lengths behind Frankel then Filante? If you want to use that as a guide.
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The point more is when i read your comments.... won the Arc by 6 lengths in a canter he sprinted clear of the unbeaten French Derby winner with the Irish Derby and King George winner beaten miles.
Suggests to me champions don;t get beaten so easy as these so called champions have been so maybe the horses of that time were overrated. 300 chubby guys race daily against each other one guy stands out as he keep flogging the rest easily (champion) but put against a slimmer guy a true athlete he gets beaten easy still champion? |
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Regarding your question re the horses behind Frankel being from Australian i don't know your horses well enough so i can't comment as i would be just guessing
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Anyhow guys...let's look forward to York and salivate at the prospect of yet another majestic performance from Frankel, as the Sussex is only gonna tell us the relative merits of the younger brigade (and something about the WFA scale) if any 3yo's dare take him on!
Does anyone believe he WON'T stay the Juddmonte trip? And...what would be your favoured tactics to beat him if you had a group one performer? I think he's gonna blitz them at York (Camelot included if connections have the appetite for it) and he'll power to the line. Being a relatively flat track, is it gonna be advantageous to Frankel in getting the trip if there are lingering doubts, or does a stiff uphill finish really sort out the wheat from the chaff and favour him? |
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Exactly my point Filante. Champions don't get beaten so badly until a true, exceptional and unique champion comes along. It is exceptional. That is exactly what I mean. Otherwise there would be exceptional champions every season, and there aren't.
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There has to be a real possibility he won't stay the Juddmonte distance.
The fact is he's shown freakish speed over a mile so you can't be completely confident about him staying in my opinion. What's more for all the great horses that Cecil has trained over the years he hasn't had one like this before so how does he begin to assess his ideal distance? With regards Brigadier Gerard an extremely interesting analysis here. http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=18116 |
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Marcce - that's an interesting read, and without wishing to denigrate Brigadier Gerard's achievements, I have to say I'm surprised at the winning distances in quite a few of those races, which would suggest he was 'all-out' on a few occasions.
As for Frankel's prospects of staying...he gallops right to the line on stiff courses, and Queally struggles to stop him - I just can't see him NOT staying even though it's understandable there are doubts, because of his terrific sprinting speed. He really IS a freak and I'm convinced we'll set it at York  Dancing Brave didn't exactly struggle to get 12f, and I'll always remember Greville saying after the GUINEAS, he'd stay SIX miles  |
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I've been reading that as well. One person's opinion and rating and he hasn't even a 1972 form book ffs.
And for you Foetus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOOoh3UPujU&feature=plcp http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD6nUlEY9ek&feature=relmfu http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2j2JvPa-UE&feature=relmfu |
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And these. Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-lAqLJXW4M&feature=relmfu http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdMLHPY5FHQ&feature=plcp |
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Brigust - thanks chief...a couple of those I'd never seen before.
Can you elaborate on some of the more 'workmanlike' performances? Were there excuses for below-par performances in victory? Again, without wishing to denigrate Brigadier Gerard's achievements...just how good were some of the opposition? Do you think Mill Reef would have been up to beating those milers over THEIR trip? His victims may well have been the winners of some prestigious events but just like in 1993 & 94...something's gotta win them! In those two seasons, apart from Zafonic (who only raced once after the Guineas) there was no outstanding miler around, though there was tremendous competition amongst the rest, many of whom nevertheless were genuine group one horses. |
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The thing about ratings is how would they be rated if say 6 champions happened to come in the same season as a hypothetical scenario. Take another season where no champions of an average quality season occurred. You would probably get the Group 1's shared around during the season in both scenarios but both sets being rated similarly to each other.
Whenever a champion comes along and wins virtually all of its races, the quality of the opposition it is facing can never truly be compared to any other season, it boils down to the probability of having a certain number of horses of a certain quality to set the standard of the pattern race population by. Course records mean close to nothing as it mostly tells you the going allowance of the track and little else, the times of all races is only in the context of comparing same day, same distance races and even then could be skewed by wind strength and direction, pace of race, drying ground or ground being rain softened, ground being cut up etc.... |
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Frankel now 10lb better than Black Caviar
Black Caviar ran at least a stone below her best form when scrambling home in Saturday’s Diamond Jubilee Stakes according to Phil Smith, the British Horseracing Authority’s senior handicapper. By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath)telegraph.co.uk But the international panel, which meets in Hong Kong in December each year to finalise the World Thoroughbred Rankings, is likely to ignore the Ascot result in arriving at the Australian champion’s final figure. “Putting it in footballing terms, she has won an away game,” said Smith, a former player before getting involved in racing. “It is not our job [in Britain] to assess her, but I would be surprised if Greg Carpenter [the Australian Handicapper with that responsibility] dropped her after Saturday. Clearly she has run well below her best. I would say 14lb below her best.” Smith also indicated that the gap between Frankel, the world’s best horse, and Black Caviar had widened to 10lb following their Royal Ascot efforts. The Sir Henry Cecil-trained champion has been promoted from 136 at the start of the year to 140 following victory in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and his electrifying win in the Queen Anne Stakes. Smith stressed that ratings posted during the season should be treated as progress reports. “They need to be agreed by the international panel at the end of the year, so they are far from final, and will be influenced by results before December,” he said. For only the second time in 12 years there will be no runner from either Britain or France in the Irish Derby. Saturday’s race, which will be run at 7.45pm, has attracted 11 entries. Ballydoyle have six of them, headed by the Derby winner Camelot, while John Oxx has three entries, Jim Bolger one and Dermot Weld one. It is interesting that Oxx has chosen to confirm Born To Sea’s entry in the Irish Derby following the colt’s promising effort when staying on to finish fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile at last week’s Royal meeting. Oxx also has Akeed Mofeed, who won a maiden impressively at Leopardstown in September 2011 prior to finishing second in the Beresford Stakes on testing ground at The Curragh. The colt has not run in 2012 owing to niggling problems, but is considered a bright prospect |
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akeed is the most interesting w/o the fav imo but he would have to be sts to beat camelot given the prep.
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Foetus Brigadier Gerard had never run on heavy ground before the St James Palace and it nearly caught him out. Sparkler led until the line where BG nabbed him. He could go on heavy but it blunted his blinding speed.
In the Champion Stakes he beat Rarity a head. It poured for 12 hours and he even stopped twice on the way to the start. Rarity loved soft ground. He had just beaten Lombardo in a canter. Lombardo was 4th in the Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby behind Irish Ball. The 3rd horse Welsh Pageant was just about unbeatable over a mile. In 2 seasons he won the Lockinge twice winning 5 from 7 starts. He was unlucky to finish only 3rd in the Eclipse against Mill Reef and Caro. As a 4 year old he was aimed at a showdown with Mill Reef in the Eclipse and his early season was geared around that. His first race was a pipe opener in the Lockinge where he beat the 3 year old who had won 2 Guineas trials by 5 lengths and 6 lengths and was 2nd favourite for the Guineas giving him nearly 2 stone. Next time out, 9 days later, he trialed over the Eclipse course. Joe Mercer only intended to win narrowly and they won by half a length. The 2nd, Ballyhot, had been beaten in the St James Palace behind BG but also hated the ground. He was unbeaten after that until he met BG agin and was in reciept of 14lbs. The Eclipse was a bog. there was only 27 runners all day. Because Mill Reef failed to turn up the Hislops insisted on running according to the press. He took it up some way from home and was never in danger. They were his narrow successes. |
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Thanks Brigust - I'll gladly take your word for all of that
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u do make BG sound like a superhorse ill give u that.
no matter how good frankel is, his form appears to be very ordinary. i mean hes beaten good horses but the like of nathanial and treasure beach he beat as 2 yr olds or on his first start. i think the test for him would be to beat them over THEIR trips (obviously). hes had it so handy its ridiculous. |
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obv im not forgetting canford and the collateral form with goldi but u have to say its the renewed rivalries too, like for me, beating canford as impressive as he was, i really want to see him do it once more. not in the case of excelebration where he just meets him once a week.
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and im not saying he couldnt beat canford by an easy 5 again but ideally when looking at it and taking it literally, u want to see it again...dont u? and im not saying he didnt beat canford fair and square.
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What BG beat was th best around at the time. It was a golden era for British horse racing with Mill Reef and then Rheingold winning the Arc. BG had to share the limelight with Nijinsky, My Swallow, Mill Reef, Rheingold, Allez France and Dahlia. Each individual from the press had his own favourite.
One of the reasons I think Frankel is rated so highly is because all of the press favour Frankel because the rest just do not cut the mustard. Because Mill Reef stepped up to the Derby etc it is difficult to say but I'm convinced he would have won the races BG did. Mill Reef won the Coventry by 7 lengths and the Gimcrack by 10 lengths. He had masses of speed. He won the Greenham in a canter just like Frankel and was favorite for the Guineas. It is a bit like saying would Dancing Brave have been a top miler. And Mill Reef was better than Dancing Brave. |
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My problem is that Timeform by rating Frankel on 147 have been forced to put Excelebration on 133. Otherwise their figures do not add up.
With Excelebration on 133 that is 1lb behind Lammtarra who was unbeaten and won the Derby, King George and the Arc. Can you believe that? Also that puts Excelebration 2lbs in front of Royal Palace. Royal Palace won 9 from 11 starts. He was top 2 year old. He won the 2000 Guineas and Derby and would have won the Triple Crown for which he was long odds but for injury. The horse he beat in the Derby, Ribocco, won the Irish Derby and St Leger. As a 4 year old he was unbeaten in 5. He won the Coronation Cup, Prince of Wales, Eclipse (where he beat the 2000 Guineas and Derby winner Sir Ivor) and the King George where he beat the Arc winner Topyo. To rate Excelebration 2lbs in front of Royal Palace is way past beyond belief. |
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brigust1 see Excelebration underrated thread
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i dont see how excelebration can be underrated. the only reason he has a lofty rating is due to his proximity to frankel. if frankel wasnt around, we would be talking about dubawi gold as a very good g1 horse
 laughable really. |
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Brigust: "It is a bit like saying would Dancing Brave have been a top miler. And Mill Reef was better than Dancing Brave"
I read many of your posts with interest as you make a lot of sense, but after your reluctance to believe what your eyes must be telling you with Frankel even over a mile, and your dismissal of Dancing Brave like that, I'm now suspecting you're stuck in a time-warp! I thought I was nostalgic for the 80's but your penchant for the early 70's is bordering pathological! As much as I appreciate Sea The Stars and the other greats I've seen over 12f since the late 70's, I don't think I've seen a horse that could have fended off the speed Dancing Brave showed at the end of THAT Arc - he is undoubtedly a true great in my opinion, and remains the benchmark over 12f for me, and until Frankel, he was also the mile pinnacle too (probably with El Gran Senor) As far as I'm aware, Mill Reef didn't have his 2yo 5f speed as a 3yo, because it went AWOL in Brigadier Gerard's Guineas! In my opinion, Dancing Brave would undoubtedly have battered Green Desert (again) even over 6f in the July Cup as well as the Arc over 12f. It's most unfair and nigh-on impossible to criticise Dancing Brave's 3yo career, as being unbalanced at Epsom and the Santa Anita heatwave will NEVER overshadow his magnificent victories. I think those rose-tinted spectacles need cleaning  |