AS AN EDUCATION I'VE JUST PRICED UP THE FIRST TOMORROW

big bucks 1 to 4

Each way should be 1/2 odds imo

1/10th sounds fayre

bet win only

- the

we will bet 1/5 each way 1 2 3

smurphy,
four out of every five will want each way.
would you turn away 80% of your customers ?

jrw,
do you lay trade each way ?

hello alan, sometimes next to you

yes , but can i get on ?

From a mathematical point of view even 1/10th 1,2,3 leaves you in a place over broke situation , you'd need to go 1/11th 1,2,3 before you had an over round place book.

Won will be pulled out I reckon :(

thanks hayden. i was saving that gem for a bit later.
at least you understand the predicament

to bet each way 1/5 odds need to bet like
big bucks 2/7
bouggler12/1
kayr aramis 16/1
possol 16/1
silver token 100/1
souffleur 10/1
tidal bay 9/2
wolf moon 40/1

go win only

mmm,
and turn away 4 out of every 5 punters who would mostly go elsewhere for the rest of the afternoon.
no , betting win only not a viable option

jrw

Problem with that book is you'd be almost 128% on the win side and giving poor value to the average punter who doesn't understand the implications of over broke place books , and even with your skinny win book you'd need 1/7th for a place over round.

It's one of those you take on the chin as a bookie or " persuade " one of the rags owners of a more financially beneficial option.

adge ,what would you have done when you had to offer traditional odds?

adge at ffos las yesterday in the first only one book went 1/6th,no need to by the way place book betting fair to the punters was 102 %,however he was taking 4 bets to 1 compaired to the rest of us.

i know but will never ever go 1/6 1/7 or 1/8 or more odds a place

Just price it up without the favourite and do a quarter 1 -2 . :D

good man jrw

hello jimnast,
to be honest i expected more abuse on this thread for even mentioning such place percentages.
for the record i have never and never will go 1/6th etc either.

mmm,
before computers we didn't know the place percentages so couldn't understand why we kept losing on places. sad really.

Adge

I have adjusted your book, reducing it to 100% and calculated the REAL odds of a horse placing; assuming the odds of their winning is accurate.

The table shows Betfair win odds - Betfair Place Odds (real chance not those offered) - and the decimal (ie. the terms you need to offer)

Big Bucks 1.37 - 1.01 -1/37th
Bouggler 21 - 2.41 - 1/14th
Kayf Aramis 51 - 5.53 - 1/11th
Possol 51 - 5.53 - 1/11th
Silver Token 1000 - 105.33 1/10th
Souffleur 25 - 2.93 - 1/13th
Tidal Bay 7.5 - 1.28 1/26th
Wolf Moon 101 - 10.78 - 1/10th

Good luck mate!!

Fair enough mate but i'd rather go skinny place odds to fit the circumstance than explain to a regular Joe punter why i'm shortest for every runner in the race against the fav to avoid taking bets from customers I don't want long term.
My answer would be to go 1/5th 1,2,3 and keep the place book as sensible as mathematically possible and in other words take it on the chin for long term benefit , also bet without the fav to only a couple of % to divert attention and offer perceived value on an alternative market.

of course the simple solution to all this is if the gambling commision made the origanal place terms compulsory again.

Well said jimnast,

before the computer adge i dont think many books knew how they had gone on in the place markets till balancing up in the car on the way home,

mmm plenty of racecourse bookmakers wont that to happen dispite what you read on this forum.

and we all went back to chalk and tickets jimnast
times change the place terms are simply outdatedand along with rule 4 needs to be modernised

totally agree about the rule 4 shadder,

cheers everyone

adge..... if it looks like 8 runners we will be scouring the shops for the thieving bets, so you will not be affected too much.

yes , at least you all know now..it's 73 % [ or 27% overbroke ]

good luck tomorrow

great thread,

amazing when the figures are shown to the armchair bookmker keyboard warriors there is complete silence - bar the odd idiot.

Good luck tommorrow lads.

adge - sorry to have to correct you but your opening post was incorrect. If you have an over round of 109.72% you DO NOT make £9.72 for every £100 taken, you actually make £9.72 for every £109.72 taken which equates to £8.86 profit for every £100 taken.

bloody accountant

brown envelope job..guaranteed.

who from ?

It is even more interesting when the %100. e.g 80% for a "bad" ew race. In that example you would lose £20 for every £80 taken = a loss of 25%, not what some would expect 20%.

So if you were betting 120% on the win and 80% on the places then you would not be stake holding on e.w. bets you would actually be losing 4.16%. i.e. (+16.67%-25.00%)/2

The one thing I'd say is that there are also plenty of races where the each way terms are unquestionably favourable to the bookmaker, both on and off course. I have some sympathy with the on course books, but none for the off course firms whose ability to take fortunes on dog races with 130%+ books means they should just accept that they can't have it all ways.

hello chris hope your well.

Hi jimnast, will be at Newmarket Thursday if you are going.

i would love to go chris the rowley mile is the only place i miss since i changed sides,but i will be at ayr fri/sat,two days at the middle park meeting is my only pleasure nowadays.

i'll be there next thursday but that seems a long way off.
still got to get past this first race tomorrow.

what percentage chance have i got of winning on it uwgs [ i'm at 1/5th ]

Sit on stool and eat your sandwiches could be the NAP adge.

probably 30/100 you winning adge,:) just the fav a winner !!

how do i get sandwiches past the gate security.
they even confiscated bob's paper scissors last year.

Let's hope the roads are busy then arrive for the 2nd race and blame the horrific traffic , do agree with Chris B though in that there are numerous occasions when the maths would allow 1/3rd odds a place and fair trading to both parties but that option is only ever taken up by exception as a concession , totally agree it works both ways and until we discover a modern equivalent to suit everyone these races have to be taken on the chin i'm afraid.


Good luck everyone

adge, ribero1 will keep you on the right track if you're stuggling to give the punters a fair deal. ;)

adge if you are betting to 1/5 i guess you need to keep the rags short and hope that the fav finishes in the frame. I wouldnt want to be half in with you though.

If i was betting in Ireland i would bet without two but i am not sure that the Liverpool racegoers would understand.

As it is i will bet win only on the race and hope for the best, probably going with the favourite as i dont like the second fav.

My record for the first day of the meeting is not good so if i get the race wrong it will only be par for the course.

we seem partly in agreement. normally i try not to get too much place money for second favourites but not this one as he certainly has two ways of running [ being polite ]

what a shock..brown envelope job for the rag.

yes, anyone still not aware the 500/1 chance has been withdrawn.

uwgs 07 Apr 22:39
adge - sorry to have to correct you but your opening post was incorrect. If you have an over round of 109.72% you DO NOT make £9.72 for every £100 taken, you actually make £9.72 for every £109.72 taken which equates to £8.86 profit for every £100 taken.

Thank God someone has actually made this point.

adge 07 Apr 22:52
bloody accountant

Actually it shows an embarassing lack of knowledge and understanding on your part.

LOL let him think he knows what he is doing. LOL at teh thread title, an education?

You should try one one Betting Percentages adge, and growing a pair and layinga bet without going 1/6th 1-2-3. Oh you might also take a bet too.

Old dinosaur bookies are novices up against a proper punter or mathematician.

Youve just made yourself look very silly.

adge tell me something have you ever bet over a favourite in your life?

Do you understand betting %s

Do you need to go 1/6th or 1/12th to make it pay?