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based on betfair prices as now
1. BIG BUCKS 30/100
2. BOUGGLER 16/1
3. KAYF ARAMIS 33/1
4. POSSOL 33/1
5. SILVER TOKEN 200/1
6. SOUFFLEUR 20/1
7. TIDAL BAY 6/1
8. N/R
9. WOLF MOON 66/1
this gives a fair opening show with profit percentage of 109.72 %
or simply put ..for every £100 i take i win £9.72
now.....should i bet each way at 1/5th , 1/6th , 1/8th or 1/10th odds.
which is fair to BOTH punter and bookmaker would you say ?
1. BIG BUCKS 30/100
2. BOUGGLER 16/1
3. KAYF ARAMIS 33/1
4. POSSOL 33/1
5. SILVER TOKEN 200/1
6. SOUFFLEUR 20/1
7. TIDAL BAY 6/1
8. N/R
9. WOLF MOON 66/1
this gives a fair opening show with profit percentage of 109.72 %
or simply put ..for every £100 i take i win £9.72
now.....should i bet each way at 1/5th , 1/6th , 1/8th or 1/10th odds.
which is fair to BOTH punter and bookmaker would you say ?
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Replies: 56
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big bucks 1 to 4
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Each way should be 1/2 odds imo
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1/10th sounds fayre
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bet win only
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- the
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we will bet 1/5 each way 1 2 3
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smurphy,
four out of every five will want each way. would you turn away 80% of your customers ? |
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jrw,
do you lay trade each way ? |
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hello alan, sometimes next to you
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yes , but can i get on ?
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From a mathematical point of view even 1/10th 1,2,3 leaves you in a place over broke situation , you'd need to go 1/11th 1,2,3 before you had an over round place book.
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Won will be pulled out I reckon :(
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thanks hayden. i was saving that gem for a bit later.
at least you understand the predicament |
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to bet each way 1/5 odds need to bet like
big bucks 2/7 bouggler12/1 kayr aramis 16/1 possol 16/1 silver token 100/1 souffleur 10/1 tidal bay 9/2 wolf moon 40/1 |
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go win only
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mmm,
and turn away 4 out of every 5 punters who would mostly go elsewhere for the rest of the afternoon. no , betting win only not a viable option |
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jrw
Problem with that book is you'd be almost 128% on the win side and giving poor value to the average punter who doesn't understand the implications of over broke place books , and even with your skinny win book you'd need 1/7th for a place over round. It's one of those you take on the chin as a bookie or " persuade " one of the rags owners of a more financially beneficial option. |
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adge ,what would you have done when you had to offer traditional odds?
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adge at ffos las yesterday in the first only one book went 1/6th,no need to by the way place book betting fair to the punters was 102 %,however he was taking 4 bets to 1 compaired to the rest of us.
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i know but will never ever go 1/6 1/7 or 1/8 or more odds a place
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Just price it up without the favourite and do a quarter 1 -2 . :D
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good man jrw
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hello jimnast,
to be honest i expected more abuse on this thread for even mentioning such place percentages. for the record i have never and never will go 1/6th etc either. mmm, before computers we didn't know the place percentages so couldn't understand why we kept losing on places. sad really. |
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Adge
I have adjusted your book, reducing it to 100% and calculated the REAL odds of a horse placing; assuming the odds of their winning is accurate. The table shows Betfair win odds - Betfair Place Odds (real chance not those offered) - and the decimal (ie. the terms you need to offer) Big Bucks 1.37 - 1.01 -1/37th Bouggler 21 - 2.41 - 1/14th Kayf Aramis 51 - 5.53 - 1/11th Possol 51 - 5.53 - 1/11th Silver Token 1000 - 105.33 1/10th Souffleur 25 - 2.93 - 1/13th Tidal Bay 7.5 - 1.28 1/26th Wolf Moon 101 - 10.78 - 1/10th Good luck mate!! |
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Fair enough mate but i'd rather go skinny place odds to fit the circumstance than explain to a regular Joe punter why i'm shortest for every runner in the race against the fav to avoid taking bets from customers I don't want long term.
My answer would be to go 1/5th 1,2,3 and keep the place book as sensible as mathematically possible and in other words take it on the chin for long term benefit , also bet without the fav to only a couple of % to divert attention and offer perceived value on an alternative market. |
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of course the simple solution to all this is if the gambling commision made the origanal place terms compulsory again.
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Well said jimnast,
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before the computer adge i dont think many books knew how they had gone on in the place markets till balancing up in the car on the way home,
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mmm plenty of racecourse bookmakers wont that to happen dispite what you read on this forum.
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and we all went back to chalk and tickets jimnast
times change the place terms are simply outdatedand along with rule 4 needs to be modernised |
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totally agree about the rule 4 shadder,
cheers everyone |
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adge..... if it looks like 8 runners we will be scouring the shops for the thieving bets, so you will not be affected too much.
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yes , at least you all know now..it's 73 % [ or 27% overbroke ]
good luck tomorrow |
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great thread,
amazing when the figures are shown to the armchair bookmker keyboard warriors there is complete silence - bar the odd idiot. Good luck tommorrow lads. |
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adge - sorry to have to correct you but your opening post was incorrect. If you have an over round of 109.72% you DO NOT make £9.72 for every £100 taken, you actually make £9.72 for every £109.72 taken which equates to £8.86 profit for every £100 taken.
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bloody accountant
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brown envelope job..guaranteed.
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who from ?
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It is even more interesting when the %100. e.g 80% for a "bad" ew race. In that example you would lose £20 for every £80 taken = a loss of 25%, not what some would expect 20%.
So if you were betting 120% on the win and 80% on the places then you would not be stake holding on e.w. bets you would actually be losing 4.16%. i.e. (+16.67%-25.00%)/2 |